Want to keep tabs on investor sentiment, but don't have a lot of time?
We created a handful of models, with time frames between intraday and weekly, that aggregate many of our sentiment indicators. You can see in one quick glance where sentiment is at any given time. We also provide historical data for reference and testing purposes.
These are by no means a market-timing panacea, but they each serve a useful purpose when put into the proper perspective.
We want to provide users with the information they need to be aware of the current state of market sentiment, in all time frames. Like fundamental and technical analysis, sentiment can be quantified, measured and tested.
That's what we have done to come up with our models.
Time Frame: Very short-term
The STEM.MR model has the shortest time frame.
It was developed because several of the shorter-term sentiment indicators we follow have displayed a mean-reverting tendency in the past - when they go too far in one direction, they tend to snap back to an average value.
Often when they snap back, it correlates with short-term market turning points. We use 30-minute data to calculate the index.
Depending on market conditions, a signal could last anywhere from an hour to several days. Typically, however, the market makes a decision one way or the other and it is usually clear soon whether the signal will be effective or not. These extremes typically happen three to four times per month.
This model is now updated every 15 minutes every trading day for subscribers
Time Frame: Short-term
The Short-Term Extreme Model (STEM) is a model consisting of several sentiment measures including:
* Put/Call ratios
* Proprietary sentiment measures
We use 30-minute data to calculate the index, but it covers a longer time period than our shortest-term model.
An extreme model reading can be considered anything outside of the model's trading bands. A reading outside the upper band would suggest that the market is overbought and a reading under the lower band would suggest that it is oversold.
Time Frame: Intermediate-term
In our research, we found that many popular sentiment indicators have predictive ability little better than random, which is not acceptable to us. We want proof that an indicator is useful before using it in a model.
Through exhaustive research, we determined the sentiment indicators (both published and proprietary) that are most correlated with future market direction, and we weight those indicators according to their correlation.
When investor pessimism reaches such a great degree that it pushes the model outside of its lower trading band, then we can surmise that it has reached almost reached a panic stage and a market rebound is likely to follow.
Conversely, model readings that push above the upper trading band are a sign that complacency or optimism is rampant, and even in strong uptrends, equities have a difficult time sustaining additional upside.
We present subscribers with three averages of the model (5-day, 10-day and 21-day) to help accommodate different time frames.
Time Frame: Intermediate to Long-term
The Advisor & Investor Model (AIM) is a model which averages the momentum of the four major sentiment surveys.
When optimism reaches a degree extreme enough to move the model above its upper trading band, then we know that investor and advisor sentiment is reaching a frothy stage that is very rarely rewarded with rising market prices - usually, the market stages a decline soon afterwards (red arrows highlight those times on the chart below). The arrows do not depict buy and sell signals, but rather times when the model reached far outside its trading bands and then reversed.
In contrast, when the survey populations are so pessimistic that it forces the model below its lower trading band, then we know that we have likely entered a panic selling stage that will result in a market rebound with a high degree of accuracy (the green arrows on the chart).
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