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[ 2008 ] [ 2007 ] [ 2006 ] [2005] [2004] [2003] [2002] 2004 COMMENTS Click on the title below to be taken to the appropriate commentary. 12/22/04 11:53pm EST Available cash at NYSE clearing firms is beginning to dwindle, but there is a lot in reserve, and a decline is actually bullish for the long-term outlook. Also, the recent decline in the VXN is typical of this time of year, though it often precedes a market decline early in the new year.
Now, Or...A Few Weeks From Now 12/16/04 8:20pm EST We can back out the effects of market performance and interest rates on the Investor's Intelligence sentiment survey to get a better read on whether we are seeing excessive bullishness or not. Current analysis shows that this population is too bullish given the inputs, though it is not to as great a degree as the raw numbers would suggest.
12/14/04 7:45pm EST The structure of the market since the March 2003 low is close in comparison to 1998, especially so if we include the number of new highs on the NYSE, which are diverging from the new highs in price. Also, we repeat what has become a consistent pattern regarding the reaction of stocks and bonds on a day the Fed raises their rate target.
12/09/04 8:50pm EST Extreme volume spikes in SMH while it formed an intraday reversal had a tendency to lead to nothing consistent in the short-term, but 60 days later the index was lower nearly every time. Also, a comparison of SMH volume to the underlying stocks shows that investors are just now going back into the "safety" of SMH as opposed to what we saw in late November.
12/07/04 8:15pm EST When the Nasdaq 100 has dipped more than 1.5% soon after making a new high, and bullish sentiment is already very high, nearly always the index has gone on to further gains when looking out more than a few days. Also, odd lot traders have been shorting this rally to an excessive degree, typically a very bullish sign.
Friday's Trading Should Set Tone for Weeks 12/02/04 8:30pm EST When Intel comes out with positive news after the Nasdaq 100 has already made a new high, and INTC gaps up huge the next day, it has had a good tendency to mark at least a short-term top in the broader technology market.
December Dump? It Better Happen Fast. 11/29/04 9:00pm EST In nominal dollar terms, commercial traders are short the big three indexes to a nearly-record degree. Also, options traders are buying more calls than puts to a large degree, a remarkable shift in character from a few weeks ago. If we are going to see a meaningful decline during December, history suggests it will not happen during the last two weeks of the month.
11/18/04 7:35pm EST The SPX/VIX ratio is a misleading sign of a market top. Also, a divergence between NDX gains and negative breadth has signaled some short-term weakness in the past, and a long-term look at Nasdaq short interest is another mark in the bullish column.
11/16/04 9:15pm EST The breakout in the S&P 500 from a long-term range carries historically positive connotations. We also look at cash balances at NASD regulated clearing firms and a potentially bullish pattern in the positions held in S&P 500 futures contracts.
11/11/04 8:00pm EST The TICK on the NYSE spent only 1% of its time below zero today, which is sign of buying pressure exceeded only once in the past three years. This type of pressure normally lasts over the next few days, but does not seem to have longer-term implications.
11/09/04 7:30pm EST Rydex asset moves between the Europe and Japan funds provide the potential for a pairs trade between the two, readily available via exhange-traded funds. However, they are not yet at a point where it is a high-odds opportunity to do so. Also, we look at our OEX Determination Index, which is signaling that those traders are building up put positions.
Risk is Now Significantly Higher 11/03/04 8:20pm EST In addition to Rydex trader fleeing the money market, they are putting their money into the most speculative of issues, as our Beta Chase Index records a new all-time high. Also, odd lot purchases have spiked to a very high level over the past week, something last seen only at prior market peaks this year.
A Note of Caution, But It Still Looks Good 10/28/04 7:50pm EST Watching the amount of money in the Rydex money market fund, relative to total assets in the other index funds, has been a good exercise in seeing the extremes in trader sentiment this year. Currently, the assets are very low, something which has been consistently bearish for several years. However, we should see some outright speculation in our other measures before counting out this rally.
10/26/04 7:45pm EST Rydex traders have seemingly abandoned banking and financial services shares, a sign that has had a 100% long-term success rate - on the upside - for the shares in the past. Also, we look at the recent whipsaw pattern in the S&P that also suggests higher prices going forward.
10/21/04 9:10pm EST The proportion of volume in Nasdaq shares compared to NYSE shares over the past month have fallen to an extreme level. Over the past seven years, such low levels of "speculative" volume have been positive times for the broader market.
Getting Closer in Time and Price 10/19/04 9:20pm EST The lowrisk.com sentiment survey came out with its 3rd-lowest number of bullish respondents in its history. The two times before that lead to some short-term losses, but good gains after that. Also, the S&P and crude oil have traded in a fairly predictable pattern over the past year - something that if it continues should be bullish for stocks.
10/14/04 8:00pm EST Whenever the TICK on the NYSE has hit -1000 intraday, and the S&P goes on to lose another 1% or so the next session, it has actually been an extremely bullish event, as the market often bottom soon afterward. We see a similar pattern after VIX reversals from low levels, and the put/call ratio being above 1.0 for four out of five days.
10/12/04 9:00pm EST A study of gaps in the Nasdaq 100 shows that the overriding market environment does not materially impact how long it takes most gaps to fill. And when a gap down is covered the same day, it has not lately been a bullish phenomenon. Also, we look at a simple trading system for transportation stocks based on the price action of crude oil.
Trading Range Within a Trading Range 10/10/04 9:30am EST Oil's impact on stocks, particularly transportation stocks, may be overstated. While there is certainly a negative correlation between the two, it is not an end-all, be-all tell for the group.
Skepticism is High on Further Gains 10/05/04 8:30pm EST Taking a look at a different type of put/call ratio, we see a pattern of traders becoming less and less speculative on each market rally this year. That is a positive sign of disbelief, and should limit losses going forward until that type of behavior changes.
Not the Time to Chase Them Higher 10/03/04 9:30am EST Judging by our shortest-term model for the Nasdaq, we should see a little more strength early in the weak, but at some point we suspect prices will fall back into Friday's range. Also, a long-term look at put/call data should be quite encouraging to those bullish on the market.
09/28/04 8:00pm EST Traders have been showing near-complete apathy towards semiconductor stocks lately, a positive sign that further downside should be minimal. Even when the sector rallies, traders have not been jumping on board, and they have been eschewing individual stocks for SMH.
Correction Should be Tamest of the Year 09/23/04 8:00pm EST This week's dramatic reversal of a new monthly high looks ominous, but precedent suggests that it would be rare to see further severe selling pressure. Also, total assets in the Rydex leveraged bull funds are close to undercutting the level they were at before the rally began - a sign of distrust that should limit further losses.
Another Meeting, Another Reversal? 09/21/04 8:00pm EST A longer-term sum of the NYSE TICK suggests that buying pressure has been extremely persistent, to a record degree. Past occurrences of very high readings were followed by market weakness going forward, and we should expect the same this time around. Also, we reiterate the market's propensity to reverse any gains seen on a day the Fed meets.
Traders Looking (too) Confident 09/16/04 8:00pm EST Odd lot traders, those who trade stock for fewer than 100 shares at a time and who tend to be wrong at extremes, have been buying aggressively over the past few weeks. The only other times they have been this aggressive, the broader market has seen weakness in the intermediate-term future.
Looking to Reach Overbought by Expiration 09/14/04 8:00pm EST How the S&P performed in September had a consistent influence on how October performed as well, especially if September was positive. Also, we look at a different way of viewing the Commitments of Traders data that has been effective even while our other methods of looking at that data have not.
09/12/04 10:00am EST Rydex traders have not been "buying into" the current rally as much as they did the previous two 5% rallies this year. This kind of hesitation is a good sign. On the other hand, volume in the SPY exchange-traded fund is lagging well behind volume in the underlying shares, suggesting an unwelcome confidence in traders willing to hold individual equities.
09/07/04 8:30pm EST How the S&P performs the week after Labor Day has had a fairly consistent record at predicting moves the rest of the month, particularly if the week closes negatively. Also, we look at the implied volatility measure VXO, and how unusual it is to see it scraping along at its lows while the market is not at its highs - particularly entering one of the most volatile months.
09/02/04 9:30pm EST Intel looks like it's on its way to a large gap down open tomorrow. When that has happened in the past, it has had a negative affect on the broader market that day as well as into the future. But with so many cross-currents currently in place, we may only get a better feeling of future direction once traders return next week.
08/31/04 7:30pm EST When short-term interest rates are low, mutual funds have an incentive to put their cash to work, thus we normally see them hold low levels of cash reserves. Recently, however, even while rates have climbed, cash levels have stayed steady. While the cash deficit is not yet extreme, the market has still underperformed when a deficit existed. Also, a brief look at September seasonality.
Short-term Decline Should be Just That 08/26/04 7:25pm EST By looking at whether traders are buying into new long positions or covering existing shorts, we can get an idea of the strength of a future trend, particularly if we look at how the market has performed leading up to this time. Also, the Investor's Intelligence sentiment survey has shown a drastic decline in bullish opinion over the past 8 weeks, a very good buy signal in recent history.
08/24/04 9:50pm EST Odd lot traders have been approaching the market in a similar fashion to other peaks so far this year, suggesting a short-term rest is more likely than significantly higher prices. Confirming that is a divergence between the VXN and its underlying index, the NDX.
08/22/04 12:30pm EST Sentiment in the long bond market is as negative now as it was in March. This suggests that yields should have a tough time remaining this low or especially pushing lower. Also, volume so far this month is actually running above average for this time of year, confounding arguments that it is abnormally low.
08/17/04 8:30pm EST OEX traders now have more call option contracts outstanding than put options, the first time since March 2003. Also, the ratio of open puts to open calls has declined extremely fast in the past six months, something that has been an excellent buy signal over the past 10 years. Also, we saw an intraday thrust from the TRIN that has only been seen coming out of the lows in March and May of this year.
08/15/04 11:45pm EST We have finally seen a spike higher in our R.O.B.O. put/call ratio, a welcome sign of small-trader pessimism. For the first time since the spring of 2003, these traders spent more than 22% of their volume on purchasing puts to open, a sign of panic that should lead to a good low.
Nearly Every Day, Another Piece Falls Into Place 08/12/04 9:45pm EST Speculative trading in over-the-counter stocks has declined 63% since the beginning of the year. While it has not yet fallen to a degree that suggests these traders have given up on the most speculative of all trading, it is getting close to that point. Also, we take another quick look at the breadth figures in the S&P versus the NYSE as a whole and determine that there is little difference, at least for our purposes.
08/10/04 9:10pm EST Total assets in the Rydex bear funds is close to setting an all-time record. Previous peaks in these funds have coincided well with market lows over the past two years. Also, a look at a past Fed decision day suggests that today's strength will be quickly reversed, perhaps leading to a new leg down (or at least a short-term decline).
08/08/04 10:45am EST Friday saw a record put/call reading from the CBOE. Looking at other extremely high put volume readings, most of them coincided with a clear technical breakdown. On average, the market formed a major low within a few weeks, and the day of the high put/call ratio was rarely the day of THE bottom.
The Most Difficult Inflection Point All Year 08/05/04 8:45pm EST Our Down Pressure gauge on the Nasdaq 100 reached one of its highest readings in years today. A very short-term indicator, this type of action typically means than any early weakness (such as a gap down open) is usually reversed, at least for very short-term traders. Also, a decline in the put/call ratio on a large down day is not necessarily a bearish sign over a bit of a longer-term time frame.
Decline Should Set Stage for Longs 08/03/04 8:15pm EST The lowrisk.com sentiment survey is showing that its respondents are at one of their most bearish points in seven years. Other times the survey has shown such bearishness have been almost universally excellent buying opportunities. Also, we update a sector spread play identified using Rydex asset analysis.
07/29/04 8:30pm EST Looking at market activity around opposing parties' political conventions, not much of a pattern emerges. The market is most often quite positive going forward, but it's difficult to assign cause to the conventions. Also, a look at 20 years of crude oil and stock prices - the correlation isn't as negative as most would believe.
Lots of Odd-Lotters (Well, Sorta) 07/27/04 9:00pm EST Odd lot traders, those who place a trade for fewer than 100 shares, have been aggressively shorting, betting on a continuing market decline. We show that the history of these traders doing this kind of shorting has lead to a positive market every time. So far this year, this group of traders has had a nearly spotless contrary record at calling market turns.
07/22/04 7:30pm EST The dreaded cross of the 50-day moving average below the 200-day average is made out to be much more maligned than it should be. Depending on the index, it has not necessarily been a bad sign historically. Also, a relatively new option gauge from the ISE has shown a bit of pessimism from traders, but not quite what has been seen at past lows.
Not Much That's New...Still No Confluence 07/20/04 9:00pm EST The recent new 52-week high in many utilities has actually been a pretty good bullish bellwether for the broader market. Conversely, new lows in those types of stocks have lead to poorer-than-average performance in non-related stocks. Also, our short-term measures have become extremely overbought, a troubling sign for the very near-term.
Trading Range Sucking In More Believers 07/15/04 8:00pm EST Bullish opinion in the Investor's Intelligence survey has not abated much despite mild declines in the market. While this seems troublesome, it is not entirely unusual - in fact, it is just about average. Still, the absolute level of bullishness remains extremely high (not good). Also, we revisit unusual TRIN readings, once again at the fore.
More Time Needed Before High-Odds "Go" 07/13/04 8:00pm EST The Dow has gone 103 days with hitting a new yearly high or low. While lengthy, there have been many streaks which have gone longer. Precedent suggests we could have several more months before such an extreme is reached. Also, a look at tomorrow's unusually positive seasonality, and the dip in bullishness in the lowrisk.com survey.
Some Good Signs, But Still No Confluence 07/08/04 8:20pm EST OEX traders, who are adequate market timers, have begun to concentrate more on calls once again. Also, the Rydex Beta Chase Index, which tipped us off to excessive speculation near the highs, is back to more normal readings.
Approach to Lower End of Range Should Set Up Longs 07/06/04 8:30pm EST There has been a very distinct correlation between program trading and the weekly range in the S&P 5000 index, and there appear to be no signs of that letting up. Also, we're once again seeing some unusual readings in the TRIN, which have had historically interesting results.
Sentiment, Price and Volume all Point to Continued Range 07/01/04 9:00pm EST Our Rydex Beta Chase Index is showing an incredible preference for risk-taking from this group of wrong-way traders, which is never a good sign. Also, we look at the impact on volume of program trading, and note that ETF volume has dried up, also not a positive sign. Lastly, we look at past reactions to Federal Reserve rate decisions.
Continuing to be Wary of Breakouts 06/28/04 9:15pm EST Looking at the total dollar value of commitments among large and small traders in all of the major index futures contracts, we can get a better idea of their market outlooks. The past year has been relatively difficult to decipher, but recently positions became more bearish than they have been in some time.
06/24/04 8:20pm EST Respondents to the lowrisk.com sentiment survey are more bullish now than they were when prices were higher, after having never really become bearish at the May low. Also, a look at how the market has performed in the past after implied volatility reached a new yearly low, with and without a confirming yearly high in the S&P 500.
06/22/04 8:00pm EST The past performance of the S&P 500 after extremely high SPX put/call ratios is positive, but it is at least partially due to a huge increase in put open interest. Also, a refresher table showing market performance after various tiers of bullish opinion.
Seasonal Pattern is Not Helpful (for bulls) 06/17/04 10:15pm EST An analysis of the Seasonality Index that is posted daily to the site shows that bulls may have it tougher than usual for the next couple of months. Also, we should keep our eyes on call open interest in OEX options, as it is showing a potentially bearish development.
Short-term Edge Remains Elusive 06/15/04 8:30pm EST Today's huge rally in the long bond, while impressive, does not necessarily bode anything in particular for equities, at least according to history. Also, OEX traders have been gearing up their concentration in put option contracts, which is not usually a positive sign.
06/13/04 9:45am EST An analysis of asset shifts by Rydex traders shows a clear dislike of leisure and basic materials stocks, but lots of love for consumer products, even though most have not broken out of their ranges. Similar to a setup shown in May, it may lead to a possible spread trade between the sectors.
06/07/04 8:30pm EST A detailed analysis of all option volume from the major exchanges shows that the recent historically high put/call ratio are not an anomaly due to some exotic strategy - traders have simply been preferring put strategies over call strategies, and that has bullish implications. Also, a look back at market performance surrounding past market closings for Presidential ceremonies.
06/03/04 9:00pm EST The exceedingly high number of neutral respondents from several of the sentiment surveys suggest that we may be most likely headed for a large trading range environment where oscillating-type indicators may work better than trend-following breakout strategies.
Short-term Looking Dubious, if No Relief Buying 05/30/04 11:50am EST The increasing influence of program trading has likely at least temporarily destroyed the effectiveness of the Specialist Short Ratio as a sentiment gauge. Also, the recent enthusiasm displayed by Rydex traders is a sign that the prospects for upside in the short-term are limited.
05/26/04 8:30pm EST The McClellan Oscillator has gone from its 2nd-most oversold in 64 years to its most overbought, which has nearly always preceded long-term rallies. However, on an adjusted basis we are far from the most overbought. Also, a look at option market activity and typical market behavior around Memorial Day.
Some Mildly Positive Signs, and One Bad One 05/24/04 7:50pm EST Our ROBO put/call ratio has ticked up to the highest level in many months, but remains below the panic level seen at the bear-market lows. Also, we look at available cash sitting in NYSE-designation clearing firms, and how the market has usually responded when going from grossly oversold to overbought.
05/20/04 6:20pm EST Exceedingly low volatile days preceding option expirations in the past have lead to a positive expiration day 9 out of 11 times, with an average range of 10 points. This suggests we may have a little headwind to the upside for Friday's expiration.
Flees to ETF Liquidity in Times of Uncertainty 05/18/04 7:20pm EST Similar to what we saw with SPY/S&P 500, excess volume flowing into QQQ over and above its component stocks tends to coincide well with market lows, while low volume often accompanies market peaks. Also, the OEX Determination Index shows OEX traders are becoming fairly aggressive in obtaining long-side exposure.
Extremes After an Historic Run 05/16/04 10:15am EST In its 100+ year history, after periods of extreme price persistency, like we saw in 2003, the Dow did not roll back over into a new bear market. Instead, it suffered a mild correction, then went on to further gains. Also, a look at the effect of interest rates on breadth figures, and the meaning of ETF volume being significantly different from that of the underlying stocks.
A Different Look at Volatility 05/12/04 7:45pm EST The volatility we've seen in the advance/decline breadth measurement has been equaled only a few other times in history - every one showing a higher market 90 days later. We are also seeing historic readings in the CBOE put/call ratio. After similar instances, the market did not bottom immediately, but it did soon thereafter.
05/10/04 7:32pm EST We have seen many records or near-records the past few days, and this comment highlights some of them, such as the McClellan Oscillator and our TICK readings.
05/09/04 11:00am EST New lows on the NYSE as a percentage of total stocks traded is at an historic extreme. Every other instance in the past 20 years has resulted in a major market low. Also, we look at days when declining issues were 12 times advancing issues, with similar conclusions to the new lows study.
05/05/04 8:45pm EST Asset rotation among the various Rydex funds may give us a clue as to which broad sectors are most/least likely to outperform.
05/03/04 8:30pm EST Barron's magazine is showing a very low number of bullish respondents in its semi-annual poll, which is not necessarily a good sign. Also, we look at market performance after the Nasdaq first crosses below its 200-day average, and market reactions after Fed meetings.
04/29/04 7:45pm EST New lows on the NYSE have exceeded new highs on a 10-day moving average basis. While it sounds ominous, historically this has been a good contrary indicator, meaning it more often lead to gains than losses. Also, we look at the STEM.MR model for the Nasdaq, which hit a new record high.
04/27/04 10:45pm EST The Hindenburg Omen does not consistently predict dire circumstances for the market. Also, we look at our short-term STEM model and past occurrences of perfectly neutral indicator scores.
A Link from Metals to Bonds to Stocks 04/25/04 10:20am EST There is a relatively consistent link between the precious metals and bond markets, and between the bond market and stocks. We look at how futures traders are positioned in the metals, and how it may affect the other markets. Also, an update on our bond market sentiment indicator score.
04/20/04 9:30pm EST Recent readings from the lowrisk and Investor's Intelligence surveys show an excessive number of neutral responses, which in the past lead to choppy market conditions going forward. Also, a deeply oversold cumulative TICK indicator suggests the market should rally here, or it is a sign we are due for a deeper correction.
04/18/04 9:50am EST So far the broader market is doing what it needs to in order to keep the uptrend intact. Also, a look at the week after tax day since its origin in 1914, and a review of each of our sentiment indicators for the bond market.
04/14/04 8:00pm EST The severe selling pressure over the past couple of days historically has lead to a negative market in the intermediate-term if the following day was negative, but a positive market if the day after was positive. Coupled with readings from some of our other measures, the next few days may prove important.
04/12/04 8:55pm EST The action in Real Estate Investment Trusts over the past few days, down over 10% from new all-time highs, has been seen three other times since 1971. All lead to lower markets, and two of them lead to imminent waterfall declines. Also, a look at mutual fund inflows.
04/04/04 8:00pm EST The readings we saw from many of our studies in March, and the subsequent market action, suggests that the odds are very high we have seen an intermediate-term low. Also discussed is the impact on banks of rising rates, the theory of "accumulation" days and Easter proclivities.
A Surprise Should Set the Tone 04/01/04 7:45pm EST A surprise in the jobs report should set the tone in the short-term, though beware that the market has usually traded in the opposite direction of the surprise after 20 days. There are reasons to be bullish here, but please don't include the put/call ratios among them.
TRIN Switch Looks Good in the Long-Term 03/30/04 8:45pm EST The recent switch in extremes in a 5-day average of the NYSE TRIN is historically rare and quite positive in the long-term. Also, a Presidential election year phenomenon.
Breadth Says Up, Sentiment Says Down 03/28/04 9:30am EST Our breadth research suggests the highest odds are with the upside over the intermediate-term, but our pure sentiment measures still show a lack of fear from those who should most be showing it.
03/24/04 11:33pm EST Looking at several metrics, we see that traders in the Rydex Electronics fund, which follows semi stocks, are about as pessimistic now than at any time in the past few years.
03/22/04 8:45pm EST Signs of excessive selling pressure are there (witness the historic TRIN readings), yet small options traders continue to show no fear.
03/18/04 9:00pm EST We have seen nearly unprecedented movement in the VXO volatility index over the past week. Historically, such extreme flip-flops have been a positive for the market after some initial confusion.
03/16/04 8:45pm EST There is a precedent for recent TRIN readings near the high after a major bull move. While it is tenuous to draw too much from such examples, this lone precedent suggests that any additional downside would be a buying opportunity. That coincides with recent options market activity.
Drops, Pops, Streaks and Flips 03/14/04 10:30am EST Extreme flip-flops in breadth and volatility measurements - while not precluding some short-term weakness - have lead to higher prices over the intermediate-term with very high levels of consistency.
03/10/04 9:05pm EST Our two short-term "composite" measures - the indicator score and STEM.MR model - are giving readings typically seen only near market low points.
03/04/04 8:35pm EST Large disappointments in the payroll report have recently lead to short-term declines, but after 20 days the market was higher a majority of the time.
03/02/04 10:00pm EST The Dow has now logged 191 consecutive days at least 5% above its 200-day average. History suggests that this type of trend persistency tends to keep going, and is consistently a bullish factor up to a year later.
Distribution Days and Fund Flows 02/29/04 9:40am EST The market has not done anything technically wrong according to this definition of "bad" days. Also, mutual funds had near-record inflows in January - according to one measure at least.
"End-month, New-month" Pattern 02/25/04 8:30pm EST The next five days historically have been very positive for the market, equating to a 37% annual return. Also, assets following semi stocks are at a level that has coincided with rallies over the past year.
02/23/04 8:15pm EST Mutual fund cash levels are low, but so is the yield on cash equivalents. Adjusted for interest rates, current cash levels are about where you should expect them to be.
TRIN Reading Suggests a Bounce 02/19/04 8:20pm EST The day after option expiration tends to have a negative bias, but the selling we have seen suggests any additional downside may be limited.
Still Waiting for a Longer-term Edge 02/17/04 9:00pm EST Today's equity p/c ratio signaled that we may see more of a bounce, but it is likely compromised by expiration.
02/12/04 8:20pm EST Rydex traders have shifted their assets to a point where they are as bullish as they were when the S&P was 100 points higher and the NDX was 1000 points higher.
02/10/04 8:30pm EST Despite the many negative indications from some of our sentiment work, there are some positives such as margin debt and specialist shorting activity.
02/08/04 10:45am EST Using regression analysis, changes in the VIX over the past 90 days has a good record at forecasting S&P changes 90 days in the future. Currently, the forecast is suggesting significant upside is unlikely.
Beginning to Look Long for a Trade 02/04/04 9:00pm EST We're extremely oversold in the short-term, and this is one reason we are now concentrating on the long side, particularly in Nasdaq issues.
02/02/04 8:53pm EST February has not shown much of a bias historically, and the year of a Presidential election is typically choppy for the first five months or so.
01/29/04 7:20pm EST We recently ended a streak of the NYSE not having a lopsided selling day in over two months. Historically, the end of the streak has actually been a positive event.
01/27/04 8:00pm EST When properly adjusted for consistent and notable seasonal influences, short interest in Nasdaq shares is higher than average.
01/25/04 8:30am EST Large commercial traders in the full S&P 500 futures contract are now net long. Historically, that has been a very positive indication for future market performance.
A Rose is Not Necessarily A Rose 01/21/04 10:20pm EST Consecutive days without a 1% down day is a little misleading. Still, even after adjusting for volatility and sentiment, history says we may not be through with our current streak.
01/18/04 11:46am EST A confluence of factors coming together suggest that the most likely time for a decline to begin is early next week.
01/14/04 9:00pm EST The history of big mergers shows that after a short honeymoon period, the broader market has generally declined afterwards.
01/12/04 9:00pm EST The AIM model of advisor and investor opinion is giving its most overbought reading in 17 years.
01/08/04 10:00pm EST Huge spikes in volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq, such as we've just seen, normally come near the end of major moves.
01/06/04 9:05pm EST Since 1985, the NDX has undergone at least a 5% correction 83% of the time, usually beginning in the first half of the month.
01/04/04 11:00am EST Our intermediate-term indicator score is at its lowest point in 4 years, suggesting additional short-term upside should be viewed with suspicion.
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