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[ 2008 ] [ 2007 ] [ 2006 ] [2005] [2004] [2003] [2002]
December
12/29/06......Daily Snapshot Note We're short-term oversold heading into the New Year
12/28/06......Daily Snapshot Note Overbought in an uptrend calls for choppy conditions ahead
12/27/06......Daily Snapshot Note Our short-term model is the most stretched since 2004
12/26/06......Daily Snapshot Note Holiday trading should bring an overbought extreme this week
12/22/06......Daily Snapshot Note For the first time since July, indices did not rally from oversold
12/21/06......Daily Snapshot Note Another test of uptrend as NDX is oversold and on support
12/20/06......Daily Snapshot Note Tight, listless trading likely to become the norm this week
12/19/06......Daily Snapshot Note A morning gap to support gives bulls a perfect short-term setup
12/18/06......Daily Snapshot Note Typical post-expiration weakness triggers oversold signals
12/15/06......Daily Snapshot Note Gaps up on an expiration day make for a good short-term fade
12/14/06......Daily Snapshot Note A break to new highs should give us a rare "trend day"
12/13/06......Daily Snapshot Note Short-term range leaves a muddled mess with no clear edge
12/12/06......Daily Snapshot Note Watch for volatile, non-directional moves after Fed decision
12/11/06......Daily Snapshot Note S&P forming an intraday coil within a weekly range
12/08/06......Daily Snapshot Note Watching for increased volatility with extreme model readings
12/07/06......Daily Snapshot Note History of key reversal days suggests short-term downside
12/06/06......Daily Snapshot Note Our indicators are correcting without a change in price
12/05/06......Daily Snapshot Note Still dubious about the long side after yesterday's model extreme
12/04/06......Daily Snapshot Note STEM.MR model once again cycles into overbought territory
12/01/06......Daily Snapshot Note Peak in momentum, but buyers still coming after oversold dips
November
11/30/06......Daily Snapshot Note Our short-term guides have reached a momentum extreme
11/29/06......Daily Snapshot Note Corporate insiders sales have been swamping purchases
11/28/06......Daily Snapshot Note No confirmation yet that this pullback is going to be different
11/27/06......Daily Snapshot Note Today's trading triggered several outstanding readings
11/21/06......Daily Snapshot Note Small range typically means trouble after holiday
11/20/06......Daily Snapshot Note Looking for more choppy action with volume starting to drop
11/17/06......Daily Snapshot Note Commitments of Traders data becomes even more negative
11/16/06......Daily Snapshot Note Short- and intermediate-term extremes suggest dubious gains
11/15/06......Daily Snapshot Note Short-term model extremes suggest chop ahead
11/14/06......Daily Snapshot Note Short-term oversold leads to yet another new high
11/13/06......Daily Snapshot Note Expected weakness not to be, indices now forming bull flags
11/10/06......Daily Snapshot Note Reversal pattern and peak in momentum in the NDX
11/09/06......Daily Snapshot Note Cautious of a failed breakout due to signs of fading momentum
11/08/06......Daily Snapshot Note Down Pressure in the NDX has reached an overbought extreme
11/07/06......Daily Snapshot Note Peak in momentum means short-term rallies should falter
11/06/06......Daily Snapshot Note The indices showed classic trend-day behavior from the open
11/03/06......Daily Snapshot Note 1700 NDX still a battleground; Big commercial short in futures
11/02/06......Daily Snapshot Note Given several factors, 1700 on the NDX should hold for now
11/01/06......Daily Snapshot Note Naz becoming short-term oversold - good test of uptrend
October
10/31/06......Daily Snapshot Note We're oversold...in an uptrend...with hyper-positive seasonality
10/30/06......Daily Snapshot Note Positive seasonals and oversold STEM.MR suggest back off shorts
10/28/06......Long-Term Comment Large speculators have pushed their short bets against the Yen and Precious Metals to an extreme
10/27/06......Daily Snapshot Note The failed breakout of RUT and NDX signal potential trouble
10/26/06......Daily Snapshot Note Watching for a failed breakout as short-term guides hit extremes
10/25/06......Daily Snapshot Note Should see a tight range prior to Fed, then 2-3 whipsaws
10/24/06......Daily Snapshot Note Expecting a tight range ahead of tomorrow's Fed meeting
10/23/06......Daily Snapshot Note Tight range breakouts carry for a bit, but reversals are common
10/20/06......Daily Snapshot Note Commercial traders in index futures; Tight 2-day S&P range
10/19/06......Daily Snapshot Note Cumulative TICK remains stretched, but 1700 still strong on NDX
10/18/06......Daily Snapshot Note Overbought New NH/NL ratio; Failed SMH breakout
10/17/06......Daily Snapshot Note 11 "up" closes in S&P futures; NYSE TRIN
10/16/06......Daily Snapshot Note Trend days; Smart Money Confidence
10/13/06......Daily Snapshot Note VIX under 11; Stock / Bond Ratio; STEM.MR Model overbought
10/12/06......Daily Snapshot Note Short-term looks OK to chase breakout
10/11/06......Daily Snapshot Note 5-day range in the S&P is tightest in past decade; Jump in I.I.
10/10/06......Daily Snapshot Note Measured moves; Tight range in S&P
10/09/06......Daily Snapshot Note "Barbell" seasonality in October; Traders not buying into the rally
10/06/06......Daily Snapshot Note Commercial traders in index futures; AMG fund flows
10/05/06......Daily Snapshot Note Historic extreme in STEM.MR model; Oct. return after up Sept.
10/04/06......Daily Snapshot Note Overbought extreme in STEM.MR model; Skewed put/call ratio
10/03/06......Daily Snapshot Note Unusually divided opinion among traders
10/02/06......Daily Snapshot Note "Air pocket" hits after unusual price action
10/01/06......Long-Term Comment Traders have been betting heavily against small-cap stocks, and it has reached a point where we should see a rally there
September
09/29/06......Daily Snapshot Note 3-day range in the S&P; Waning momentum in semiconductors
09/28/06......Daily Snapshot Note Big jump in AAII bullishness, but still little reason to try to short
09/27/06......Daily Snapshot Note Overbought STEM.MR model; SPX/NDX divergence
09/26/06......Daily Snapshot Note Forced action gives impression of prices pulled up by a string
09/25/06......Daily Snapshot Note Small spec position bullish for market, should see buying interest
09/22/06......Daily Snapshot Note
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09/06/06......Daily Snapshot Note
09/05/06......Daily Snapshot Note
09/02/06......Long-Term Comment A review of our indicators concludes that the short-term looks dicey, but the intermediate-term should still be OK
09/01/06......Daily Snapshot Note
August
08/31/06......Daily Snapshot Note
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08/29/06......Daily Snapshot Note
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08/07/06......Daily Snapshot Note
08/04/06......Daily Snapshot Note
08/03/06......Daily Snapshot Note
08/02/06......Long-Term Comment Our Liquidity Premium is drying up, showing a lack of broad- market concern short-term, but the intermediate-term looks OK
08/02/06......Daily Snapshot Note
08/01/06......Daily Snapshot Note
July
07/31/06......Daily Snapshot Note
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07/17/06......Daily Snapshot Note
07/16/06......Long-Term Comment The 1994 template is on track in terms of technicals; a move to new lows in the Naz Composite might actually be a good thing
07/14/06......Daily Snapshot Note
07/13/06......Daily Snapshot Note
07/12/06......Daily Snapshot Note
07/11/06......Long-Term Comment We have seen a rare TICK cluster which typically lead to a rising market, but today's low will be an important pivot if violated
07/11/06......Daily Snapshot Note
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June
06/30/06......Daily Snapshot Note
06/29/06......Long-Term Comment Two 10-to-1 up volume days in the past two weeks, after seeing an oversold market, has been universally bullish historically
06/29/06......Daily Snapshot Note
06/28/06......Daily Snapshot Note
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06/14/06......Daily Snapshot Note
06/13/06......Long-Term Comment Rydex traders have abandoned technology stocks; The number of Fidelity Select funds beating cash has dropped to 0%
06/13/06......Daily Snapshot Note
06/12/06......Daily Snapshot Note
06/09/06......Daily Snapshot Note
06/08/06......Long-Term Comment "Hammer bars" are not good predictors of a low; our Liquidity Premium is at a point that has preceded lows within a few days
06/08/06......Daily Snapshot Note
06/07/06......Daily Snapshot Note
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06/01/06......Daily Snapshot Note
May
05/31/06......Daily Snapshot Note
05/30/06......Daily Snapshot Note
05/27/06......Long-Term Comment Implied volatility has dropped by 25% with only a small price move; Small specs are once again at their net longest
05/26/06......Daily Snapshot Note
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05/22/06......Daily Snapshot Note
05/20/06......Long-Term Comment NDX momentum thrusts suggests a bounce, then retest of lows; Small specs in index futures at their longest in over a year
05/19/06......Daily Snapshot Note
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05/17/06......Daily Snapshot Note
05/16/06......Long-Term Comment New lows on the NYSE expanding to more than 5% of all issues within a week of the DJIA at new highs has been bearish
05/16/06......Daily Snapshot Note
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05/12/06......Daily Snapshot Note
05/11/06......Long-Term Comment A broad indicator review shows few changes, as the risk of an intermediate-term decline has not dissipated much
05/11/06......Daily Snapshot Note
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April
04/29/06......Long-Term Comment Mutual fund inflows are extreme, and money markets have suffered for it; A look at how various indexes perform after the Fed stops raising rates
04/28/06......Daily Snapshot Note
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04/21/06......Daily Snapshot Note
04/20/06......Long-Term Comment Volume in penny stocks has exploded higher
04/20/06......Daily Snapshot Note
04/19/06......Daily Snapshot Note
04/18/06......Long-Term Comment Extreme breadth flip-flops and across-the-board large up days have often lead to future weakness when close to new highs
04/18/06......Daily Snapshot Note
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04/13/06......Daily Snapshot Note
04/12/06......Daily Snapshot Note
04/11/06......Long-Term Comment A broad review of our indicators shows likely short-term stabilization ahead
04/11/06......Daily Snapshot Note
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04/05/06......Daily Snapshot Note
04/04/06......Long-Term Comment Extremely tight ranges in the S&P 500 have most often lead to &nb |