CommentArchive


 

 

 

 

i

 

[ 2008 ]  [ 2007 ]  [ 2006 ]  [2005]  [2004]  [2003]  [2002]

 

 

Click here to see today's Snapshot

 

July

 

07/21/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Looking for short-term weakness as price patterns play out

 

07/18/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Volume surge on an up day has led to great longer-term returns

 

07/17/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Follow through to yesterday's rally has an impressive history

 

07/16/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Bank rally, heavy volume suggest continued upside bias

 

07/15/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   VIX / Treasury ratio spikes to panic levels, new lows surge

 

07/14/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-term volatility is here to stay for the time being

 

07/11/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Looking for a weekend resolution of the Fannie/Freddie mess

 

07/11/08......Data Brief

                   Taking a look at major bank failure historical precedents

 

07/10/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Smart / Dumb Confidence spread widens to a new extreme

 

07/09/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Failure to hold recent lows ushers in few historical precedents

 

07/08/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Bank reversal helps oversold rally's prospects going forward

 

07/07/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   We're oversold on an historic scale, but that may not be enough

 

07/03/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Breadth has been so persistently bad that precedents are ugly

 

07/02/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Too many folks looking for a bounce, spike in Oil, stop the rally

 

07/01/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   The intraday reversal should help lead to more short-term gains

 

 

June

 

06/30/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   The "Panic Button" indicator has still not been pressed

 

06/27/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   The S&P 500 is headed for its worst June in history

 

06/26/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Not eager to buy yet, as we're just not seeing great concern

 

06/25/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Yet more positive signs, but watch out for post-Fed reversal

 

06/24/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Action in banks, breadth is an odd market development

 

06/23/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Still not seeing many short-term pessimistic extremes

 

06/22/08......Long-Term Comment

                   Dumb Money drops, but what about the other indicators?

 

06/20/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Dumb Money Confidence falls all the way down to 29%

 

06/19/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Intermediate-term sentiment is rapidly improving

 

06/18/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   A Hindenburg Omen has triggered, the last two were great sells

 

06/17/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Not trusting any further gains to last

 

06/16/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Indicators suggested more short-term lift, now a bit overbought

 

06/13/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Selling in Bank shares has been severe on an historic scale

 

06/12/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   There are some decent oversold signals, but for just a bounce

 

06/11/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Four days of bad breadth was historically a good buy signal

 

06/10/08......Data Brief

                   The Dollar just staged in largest gain in two years - what next?

 

06/10/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Inter-market correlations continue to break down

 

06/09/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Market is more likely to reverse mid-week, but no good setups

 

06/06/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Action in banking sector looks to be capitulatory

 

06/06/08......Data Brief

                   The Unemployment Rate indicator

 

06/05/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Rebound sets up some interesting stats for jobs report reaction

 

06/04/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   BKX Banking Index has gotten hit hard, perhaps too hard

 

06/03/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Negatives continue to take their toll, last week's low is looming

 

06/02/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   The new month starts off with the 2nd-weakest bang of the year

 

 

May

 

05/30/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   A lackluster end to a choppy month

 

05/29/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Follow-through rally brings a hint of overbought readings

 

05/28/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Seasonality still positive, but other edges hard to come by

 

05/27/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Tech leads market on oversold bounce

 

05/23/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Pre-holiday trading not having its usual positive bias

 

05/22/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Nasdaq 100 looks to be short-term oversold

 

05/22/08......Data Brief

                   We show a correlation matrix showing which countries correlate

 

05/21/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Seasonality suggests a bounce at least by end of month

 

05/20/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   NYSE volume is not what it appears; rare sign of many reversals

 

05/19/08......Data Brief

                   Is this a typical bear market rally?

 

05/19/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   The demand for protection is drying up

 

05/16/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Persistent buying pressure is odd given action in the bank sector

 

05/15/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   A list of negatives makes it difficult to trust the breakout, but...

 

05/15/08......Data Brief

                   Rydex assets suggest tech may pause

 

05/14/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Rallies into mid-week during option expiry tend to peter out

 

05/13/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-covering rally?  Nah, just another record-low volume day

 

05/12/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Implied volatility implodes as some minor overbought signs hit

 

05/09/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Outlining a case for more short-term weakness

 

05/08/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Banks, bonds decline but S&P holds up...an unusual omen

 

05/07/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Negatives finally take hold, now we're oversold on support

 

05/06/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Nasdaq / NYSE Volume Ratio gives another minor warning

 

05/05/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Big breadth divergence is another minor negative

 

05/03/08......Data Brief

                   Will the Dollar disappoint again (and will the Euro shine)?

 

05/02/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Still some minor negatives as indices struggle with resistance

 

05/01/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Typical post-FOMC reversal turns into a trend day

 

 

April

 

04/30/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Market provides an unusual reaction to FOMC decision

 

04/29/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Indices just chop around ahead of data and FOMC meeting

 

04/28/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Stocks are slightly overbought, but data will be more important

 

04/27/08......Data Brief

                   The Barron's Big Money poll isn't much use for forecasting

 

04/26/08......Data Brief

                   Gasoline prices have a few factors working for lower levels

 

04/25/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   The low volume in ETFs continues to be a potential negative

 

04/24/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Today's asset rotation may not mean much

 

04/23/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Taking a look at how Apple's earnings have impacted the indices

 

04/22/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-term negative biases abound, then abate as indices decline

 

04/21/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Low volume is one of the few potential trouble spots

 

04/18/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Various factors point to short-term pullback

 

04/17/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Day of consolidation follows yesterday's overbought readings

 

04/16/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Stocks, and particularly tech, follow through with a trend day

 

04/15/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Technology indices looking better as NDX nears support

 

04/14/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   It's just a myth that the market gaps more during earnings

 

04/14/08......Data Brief

                   Investors' appetites for IPOs has dwindled to nothing

 

04/11/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   GE foils market's attempt to hold most recent support

 

04/10/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Stocks make a little headway, but outlook remains muddled

 

04/09/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Indices were not able to follow through on minor buy setup

 

04/08/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Some minor indications that we're getting oversold on support

 

04/08/08......Data Brief

                   Small businesses are showing a record high level of pessimism

 

04/07/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Gap reversal, small range suggest lower prices ahead

 

04/04/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   April begins with one of the best starts to a month in five years

 

04/03/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Weakness on economic releases is typically a bad reason to sell

 

04/02/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Typical consolidation of yesterday's gain doesn't clear outlook

 

04/01/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Market follows through on bullish setup, scores another 3% day

 

 

March

 

03/31/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-term pullback is classic so far, but now we need upside

 

03/28/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Some negative seasonality here, good test of "pullback" idea

 

03/27/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Test of breakout levels will be stocks' next challenge

 

03/26/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-term enthusiasm suggests some backing-and-filling here

 

03/25/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Looking for some consolidation as overbought wears off

 

03/24/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Upside follow-through is welcome, but is hitting overbought

 

03/20/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Treasury market turmoil a sign that recent uncertainty is historic

 

03/19/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Multiple 90% volume days is a rare historical event

 

03/18/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Two 3% one-day gains has important historical precedents

 

03/17/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Intraday reversal suggests more upside should be ahead

 

03/14/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Volatility, bond yields again suggesting low should be near

 

03/13/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Gap down opening presents a short-term opportunity

 

03/12/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Yesterday's "best gain in five years" is a notable signal

 

03/11/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Decade-low Dumb Money Confidence precedes vicious rally

 

03/10/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Despite price losses, extremes were few until the closing minutes

 

03/07/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   We're in a no-man's land under the January closing low

 

03/06/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Wicked selling pressure drops us below the January close

 

03/06/08......Data Brief

                   Is the Smart Money buying?  A look at the Smart Money Index

 

03/05/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Upside reversals, bullish setups cannot gain any traction

 

03/04/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Tricky tape not giving much follow-through to bullish setups

 

03/03/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Fourth straight down months brings with it notable comparisons

 

 

February

 

02/29/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Stiff selling pressure brings oversold readings in the short-term

 

02/28/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   "Overbought, under resistance, in a down-trend" is still a curse

 

02/27/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Stocks churn under resistance levels ahead of GDP report

 

02/26/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Indices are running into overbought conditions right at resistance

 

02/25/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Market attempting mirror image of downside breakout

 

02/22/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Study of past volatility contractions suggests false move likely

 

02/21/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   What the current triangle in the indices may mean going forward

 

02/20/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Consecutive-day reversals after big gaps is a new phenomenon

 

02/20/08......Data Brief

                   A decade-long extreme in commodity sentiment suggests caution

 

02/19/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Once again, it didn't pay to buy into a gap up after expiration

 

02/15/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   No longer overbought, but we do have some bad seasonality

 

02/14/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Overbought conditions, negative seasonality pull plug on rally

 

02/13/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Follow-through rally starting to push us into stretched territory

 

02/12/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-term "breakout" argues for stronger prices still to come

 

02/11/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Once again, we receive little in the form of short-term resolution

 

02/10/08......Long-Term Comment

                   Over the past few weeks, we've seen panic, a remarkable

                   rebound, and historic volatility

 

02/08/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   A quiet day that doesn't help resolve much in the short-term

 

02/07/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Judging the day's prospects as an inflection point

 

02/06/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Afternoon selling spree gives us the much-anticipated retest

 

02/05/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Heavy selling pressure ushers in volatility of an historical scale

 

02/04/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Market pullback nothing out of the ordinary

 

02/01/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Overbought conditions may be briefly overridden by tech merger

 

 

January

 

01/31/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-term models reaching overbought by the close

 

01/30/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Reversal of post-Fed rally got started earlier than normal

 

01/29/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Look for mostly meaningless chop ahead of FOMC decision

 

01/28/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Looming FOMC decision, earnings reports, add to currents

 

01/27/08......Data Brief

                   Why there is too much interest in short interest as an indicator

 

01/25/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Shorting into Microsoft-induced gap was a high-probability trade

 

01/24/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Rally continues, but now becoming overbought with resistance

 

01/23/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Signs of selling exhaustion provide potential fuel for quick rally

 

01/22/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Market rebounded from gap in line with prior crashes

 

01/21/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Current gap down is on a par with prior crashes ('87 and '01)

 

01/18/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Markets still not responding to waterfall-type conditions

 

01/17/08......Data Brief

                   What happens when cash is the best asset

 

01/17/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Severity of price decline is a on a par with past waterfalls

 

01/16/08......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Big price swings continue to trigger relatively little emotion