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2015 Report Archive






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Selling Pressure Eases; Hedgers Increase Energy, Euro Positions

March 27, 2015


Down Pressure on the S&P has eased, traditionally a positive short-term sign; in energy contracts and the euro, hedgers have improved their positions


Tags:  Indicators, Commodities


Bond Traders Show Extreme Optimism

March 26, 2015


The Optimism Index for bonds jumped to one of its highest levels of the past decade


Tags:  Bonds


Nasdaq Suffers Large Loss; Biotech Deteriorates

March 25, 2015


The Nasdaq Composite suffered its worst loss in more than 200 days, while IBB breadth deteriorated at the quickest pace in history


Tags:  Technicals, Volatility, Breadth


Nasdaq 100 Optimism Increases, Same With Precious Metals

March 24, 2015


Optimism on QQQ has gone into optimistic territory; in gold, silver and natural gas, optimism is climbing out of extremely pessimistic conditions


Tags:  Indicators, Commodities


Volatility Traders Bet On Increase; Stocks Wobble

March 23, 2015


Traders in the VXX fund are bullish, expecting a rise in volatility; when SPY nears a record on low volume, it has led to a pullback every time in the past two years


Tags:  Volatility, Technicals


Biotech Reversal, Volatility Traders Get Negative

March 20, 2015


After an extreme in biotechnology fund (IBB) breadth, it suffers a negative reversal; VIX term structure turns negative; gold hedgers reach extreme


Tags:  Indicators, Volatility, Commodities


Individual Investors Decrease Bullishness

March 19, 2015


According to AAII, investor optimism has dropped, but not to previous extremes, and the CSFB index shows options traders are paying up for put protection


Tags:  Indicators, Volatility


Small Caps Again Try To Lead On FOMC Decision

March 18, 2015


Small cap Russell 2000 index has closed at a 52-week high on a day the Federal Reserve announced its intention on interest rates


Tags:  Technicals, Breadth, Fed


Small Caps Trying To Lead A Breakout

March 17, 2015


Small cap Russell 2000 index has (almost) closed at a 52-week high while the S&P 500 is 2% below its high, a divergence


Tags:  Technicals, Breadth


Volatility Is High Despite Near-Record Prices

March 16, 2015


The S&P 500 endured another 1% daily move, its 20th in the past three months, despite being within 2% off a multi-year high



Tags:  Volatility


And The Surveys Show...More Caution

March 13, 2015


The AIM Model, incorporating a number of different sentiment surveys, shows a big drop over the past week



Tags:  Indicators


Traders Have Changed Their Tune On High Yield

March 12, 2015


High-yield junk bond funds HYG, JNK and PHB have seen near-record outflows over the past two weeks



Tags:  Bonds


Gold Stocks Completing "Puke" Phase

March 11, 2015


The XAU Gold And Silver Index has lost more than -1% on six out of seven days, a sign of exhaustive selling pressure in XAU, HUI, GDX and other gold-related indexes



Tags:  Commodities


Multiple Big Down Days From A High

March 10, 2015


The S&P 500 suffered two 1.25% declines in the past three sessions, after recently setting a 52-week high



Tags:  Technicals, Volatility


A Curiously Quick Jump In New Lows

March 9, 2015


On the NYSE, securities hitting 52-week lows exceeded those hitting 52-week highs, despite the S&P 500 being within 2.5% of a new high



Tags:  Breadth


Cash Is Not In Demand

March 6, 2015


According to 7 different cash-based indicators, investor holdings of cash is among the lowest levels in a decade, a confluence rarely seen



Tags:  Cash


Tech Insiders Sell While Their Companies Buy

March 5, 2015


Corporate insiders in technology companies are selling heavily while company buybacks are on pace for record highs



Tags:  Smart Money


Stock Shares Outstanding Dump While Volatility Shares Jump

March 4, 2015


Shares outstanding in SPY have declined over the past three months, while shares in volatility ETFs like VXX, UVXY and TVIX have continued to rise



Tags:  Volatility, Indicators


Smart Money Vs The Public In The Options Market

March 3, 2015


The OEX Determination Index is showing smart money caution, the opposite of what public option indicators are showing



Tags:  Indicators, Smart Money


Speculation Reaches The Options Market

March 2, 2015


Traders last week used 30% more bullish than bearish options strategies, pushing the Options Speculation Index to the top 2% of all readings



Tags:  Indicators

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Volatility Traders Betting On A (Fear) Rebound

February 27, 2015


Traders in volatility ETFs have sent shares outstanding soaring, typically seen before an uptick in volatility and struggling stocks



Tags:  Volatility, Indicators


Not A Good Extreme In Sentiment

February 26, 2015


The spread between smart money and dumb money confidence has reached -40%, the worst since last June



Tags:  Indicators, Smart Money


Newsletters Are More Optimistic Than Usual

February 25, 2015


According to Investor's Intelligence, newsletter writers are nearly 15 percentage points more optimistic than usual with the S&P 500 at a 3-year high



Tags:  Indicators


A Surge In "Junk" Cash Flow

February 24, 2015


High yield "junk" ETFs like HYG, JNK and PHB have seen a big jump in money flowing into the funds over the past month



Tags:  Bonds


Firing On All Cylinders

February 23, 2015


All four major stock indexes, the S&P 500, DJIA, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Composite, have broken to new multi-year highs together, confirming heavy buying interest



Tags:  Technicals, Breadth


Getting Close To Greed

February 20, 2015


The CNN Fear & Greed model, estimated from existing data, shows that investors are close to showing extreme greed



Tags:  Indicators


Nasdaq Stocks Aren't Participating Like The Index

February 19, 2015


The Nasdaq Composite has hit a 52-week high every day for the past week, but no more than 5% of its components have also hit a new high



Tags:  Technicals, Breadth


Arms Index Suggests Stocks Are Overbought

February 18, 2015


The 10-day Arms Index (TRIN) has started to reverse up out of an extremely overbought reading



Tags:  Indicators


Traders Are Feeling Comfortable With Stocks

February 17, 2015


Liquidity Premiums for SPY and QQQ show that traders are preferring to trade individual stocks versus the most liquid ETFs



Tags:  Indicators


Stocks Finally Break Out To A New High

February 13, 2015


The S&P 500 broke out to a 52-week high after consolidating in a range for the past several months, but watch out for failure



Tags:  Technicals


Companies Keep Lowering Earnings Expectations

February 12, 2015


Companies have been guiding analysts to lower their earnings expectations, leading to one of the lowest up / down outlook ratios in 15 years



Tags:  Fundamentals


Utilities Suffer Swift, Sharp Pullback

February 11, 2015


Utilities stocks have dropped sharply from a high over the past three weeks, but its track record as a warning sign is mixed



Tags:  Technicals, Volatility


Economic Releases Are Surprising To The Downside

February 10, 2015


Economic releases, according to the Citi Economic Surprise Index, have been extremely disappointing, while stocks have held strong



Tags:  Fundamentals


What Are Volatility Traders Up To?

February 9, 2015


Options traders in the VIX have the lowest open interest in call options in years, while futures traders in the VIX are net long



Tags:  Volatility


High Optimism In High Yield Bonds

February 6, 2015


Extreme pessimism in mid-December in high-yield junk bonds HYG, JNK and PHB has reversed to high optimism



Tags:  Bonds


Traders Sour On Financials While Insiders Buy

February 5, 2015


Optimism on the most active financial ETF, XLF, has soured to one of the worst levels in a decade while smart money insiders buy aggressively



Tags:  Indicators, Smart Money


Crude Oil Volatility Is Increasing, And Look For More

February 4, 2015


Crude oil has seen three moves of more than 7% in the past four days, which is likely the beginning of a bottoming process, but it has a ways to go to match previous bottoms



Tags:  Commodities


Earnings Expectations Continue To Sink

February 3, 2015


Analysts have continued to bring down estimated earnings for S&P 500 companies, now down more than 5% from the peak, only the sixth time since 1990



Tags:  Fundamentals


What Is Scaring People Right Now?

February 2, 2015


Among a variety of potentially scary developments, only interest rates and the dollar are showing a notable impact on the VIX fear gauge



Tags:  Volatility

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Bulls Remain Optimistic While Stocks Correct

January 30, 2015


According to Investor's Intelligence, newsletter writers are still highly optimistic despite two straight monthly declines from a 12-month high in the S&P 500



Tags:  Indicators


Federal Reserve Gives Economy A "Solid"

January 29, 2015


The FOMC policy statement upgraded the US economy to "solid" for the first time since October 2007; we look at "solid" and "weak" mentions in their statements



Tags:  Fed


Heavy Selling During A Bull Market

January 28, 2015


Selling interest was heavy on the NYSE, as the Arms Index (TRIN) soared above 3, a rare feat during a bull market



Tags:  Indicators, Breadth


Traders Keep Dumping S&P 500 Shares

January 27, 2015


Traders in the major S&P 500 exchange-traded funds, SPY, SSO, IVV and VOO, have left, leading to an outflow of more than $20 billion in the past three weeks



Tags:  Indicators, Cash


Bond Volatility Trumps Stocks'

January 26, 2015


Volatility in the bond market has remained high, despite rising prices there, while stock volatility has declined, prompting an extreme in the MOVE / VIX Ratio



Tags:  Volatility, Indicators


Ag And Soft Contracts Collapse

January 23, 2015


Like some other commodities, grains and other soft contracts have collapsed, and the latest "buy" signals have failed to lead to any kind of positive price action



Tags:  Commodities


A Plethora Of 1% Moves

January 22, 2015


The S&P 500 fund, SPY, has moved 1% every day for the past three weeks, an unusually persistent stretch of volatility so soon after a 52-week high



Tags:  Volatility


Stock Returns Vs "Fear" Correlation

January 21, 2015


Stocks and volatility usually move in opposite directions, but when they travel in the same direction, and stocks are near a high, then it often pays to worry



Tags:  Volatility, Indicators


Rig Count Lags Crude Oil Badly

January 20, 2015


The count of active crude oil wells has declined 15% over the past six weeks, but crude oil leads the rig count by months, and suggests oil may be near an inflection point



Tags:  Commodities


Wall Street Analysts Are Downgrading

January 16, 2015


Wall Street analysts have been busy downgrading prospects for companies in the S&P 500, both in terms of their earnings estimates and price targets



Tags:  Indicators


Arms Index (TRIN) Shows Persistent Selling Pressure

January 15, 2015


A popular measure of market breadth has been showing more selling than buying pressure almost every day since late December



Tags:  Indicators, Breadth


Strategists Consider S&P 500 Undervalued

January 14, 2015


Wall Street strategists have a consensus price target more than 11% above the S&P 500's current level; stocks have often bottomed when that gets closer to 20%



Tags:  Indicators


Diverging Opinions On The Dollar

January 13, 2015


US dollar smart money hedgers are net short at a record degree, at the same time that Rydex fund traders are nearing a record long



Tags:  Commodities



Volatility Spikes Are Getting More Common

January 12, 2015


Volatility spikes have increased more than during any other stretch of this bull market, similar to 1999 and 2007



Tags:  Volatility, Indicators


Futures Traders Heading For The Exit

January 9, 2015


Smart Money hedgers in index futures have moved to an extreme short position



Tags:  Indicators, Smart Money



Everybody (?) Is Bullish

January 8, 2015


Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence is both in extremely optimistic territory, second only to late 2003 / early 2004



Tags:  Indicators


A Cluster Of Despised Omens

January 7, 2015


A cluster of Hindenburg Omen signals have triggered, one of the most concentrated in 50 years



Tags:  Technicals, Breadth


Failure Is Sometimes An Option

January 6, 2015


The Russell 2000 small-cap index has suffered a failed breakout from a 52-week high



Tags:  Technicals, Volatility


Mom And Pop Embrace Stocks, Shun Cash

January 5, 2015


Individual investors, via the AAII survey, show the widest spread between stock and cash exposure since 2000



Tags:  Indicators, Cash


Cash Continues To Be Scarce

January 2, 2015


Cash on the sidelines has dwindled, and while it preceded several important stock peaks, its lead time was inconsistent



Tags:  Cash


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