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2015 Report Archive

 

JAN  FEB  MAR  APR  MAY  JUN  JUL  AUG  SEP  OCT  NOV  DEC

 

 

September

 

Analogs Suggest Testing Of The Panic Low

September 3, 2015

 

Since 1928, there were 26 precedents that had a high correlation to the S&P 500's performance over the past three months and they suggest month(s) of testing of the low

 

Tags:  Volatility, Technicals

   

Rydex Traders Hit The Panic Button

September 2, 2015

 

Traders in the Rydex family of mutual funds have left the bullish index funds and put money into the bearish (inverse) funds to the largest degree in 20 years relative to their long-term trend

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Sharp Selloffs Often Trigger Testing Phase

September 1, 2015

 

Sharp selloffs of more than 10% from a high that bounce 3% or more tend to lead to a 1-3 week testing process

 

Tags:  Breadth, Volatility, Technicals

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August

 

Volatility Shifts Into High Gear

August 31, 2015

 

When buyers stepped in following the first volatility spike in three years, then longer-term returns were much better than when there wasn't short-term follow-through

 

Tags:  Volatility

   

Selling Climaxes Reach Three-Year High

August 28, 2015

 

More than 100 stocks in the S&P 500 triggered selling climaxes this week, hitting 52-week lows then rebounding to close in positive territory

 

Tags:  Breadth, Volatility, Technicals

   

Back-To-Back Breadth Thrusts Off Oversold Market

August 27, 2015

 

More than 80% of volume on the NYSE was Up Volume for the past two days, on the heels of what had been a historically oversold level in the 10-day average of Up Volume

 

Tags:  Breadth, Volatility

   

Dow Has One Of The Shortest High-to-Low Cycles In History

August 26, 2015

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) went from a 52-week high to 52-week low in fewer than 70 days, one of its quickest trips since 1897

 

Tags:  Technicals, Volatility

   

S&P Records Fourth Straight 1% Decline

August 25, 2015

 

The S&P 500 has declined more than 1% for the past four sessions for the first time since the bear market low in 2009

 

Tags:  Technicals, Volatility

   

Volatility Traders Betting On Calm(er)

August 24, 2015

 

Options traders in volatility products like the VIX are betting that the spike in fear is going to subside in the coming weeks

 

Tags:  Options, Volatility

   

Crash Trading In Effect

August 24, 2015

 

Pre-market trading in S&P 500 futures show behavior that has equated only with prior panics, resulting in short-term rebounds

 

Tags:  Technicals, Volatility

   

Shock Day Hits Stocks

August 21, 2015

 

Stocks suffered a shock day, as they have suffered the worst 3-day return in three years, and erased nine months worth of gains

 

Tags:  Technicals, Volatility

   

All Major Stocks Indexes Now In Bear Markets

August 20, 2015

 

The S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 are now below their 200-day averages, the first time in nearly a year

 

Tags:  Breadth, Technicals

   

Semis Lag, But Not Dragging Down The S&P

August 19, 2015

 

Semiconductor stocks have dropped 15% while the S&P 500 remains near a high, and historically that has led to mostly positive returns for the broader market

 

Tags:  Stocks And Sectors, Breadth

   

Emerging Market Sentiment Hits Protracted Extreme

August 18, 2015

 

Optimism in emerging markets, specifically in the EEM fund, has dropped to the third lowest level of the past decade

 

Tags:  Stocks And Sectors

   

Options Traders Are Hedging Against A Decline

August 17, 2015

 

Small and large options traders have been buying a large amount of put options in the past month, among the highest in two years despite mild losses in stock indexes

 

Tags:  Options

   

Surveys Are Showing Nervous Investors

August 14, 2015

 

Many sentiment surveys are showing investor optimism near the lowest levels of the past year, to the point that we have seen lower optimism in the AIM Model only once in three years

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Traders Seem Nervous About The Weekend

August 13, 2015

 

Stocks have declined on 10 out of the past 12 Fridays, suggesting nervousness about headline risks over the weekend

 

Tags:  Technicals

   

S&P Goes 55 Days Without A Record

August 12, 2015

 

The S&P 500 has gone 55 days since its last record high, the longest streak since 2013, and it has lost only 4% at its worst point, the smallest drawdown in history for similar streaks

 

Tags:  Technicals

   

Split Market Leads To A Death Cross

August 11, 2015

 

A large number of new highs and new lows on the NYSE has led to a split market, and now the New York Composite suffered a death cross when the 50-day average dropped below the 200-day

 

Tags:  Breadth, Technicals

   

MLP Sentiment Sours To Near Pessimism

August 10, 2015

 

Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) have suffered large losses, and sentiment has neared a pessimistic extreme, but not panic near other lows

 

Tags:  Commodities, Stocks And Sectors

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July

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Mutual Fund Cash Hits All-Time Low

July 31, 2015

 

Mutual funds are holding the lowest amount of cash reserves in history, and it is abnormally low even when looking at just the past five years

 

Tags:  Cash

   

Private Equity Funds Selling Record Amount

July 30, 2015

 

Private equity funds have been involved in a record amount of mergers and acquisitions as sellers, surpassing previous peaks including 2007

 

Tags:  Smart Money

   

More Than Half Of S&P Stocks Have Corrected

July 29, 2015

 

More than half of the stocks in the S&P 500 have already dropped 10% from their 52-week highs, despite the S&P being within 3% of its own high

 

Tags:  Breadth, Technicals

   

S&P Rebounds On Defense Of 200-Day Average

July 28, 2015

 

After coming within 0.5% of its 200-day moving average, the S&P 500 rebounds with a 1% up day, last seen in 2011

 

Tags:  Technicals

   

Market Breadth Falls Into A Bear Market

July 27, 2015

 

The NYSE cumulative advance/decline line fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time in more than three years, the longest streak in history

 

Tags:  Breadth

   

Nasdaq Suffers Most Rejections In History

July 24, 2015

 

The Nasdaq Composite has been turned away from a 52-week high seven times in the past 90 days, the most in its history

 

Tags:  Technicals

   

Energy Insiders More Bullish Than The Public

July 23, 2015

 

Corporate insiders in energy stocks have stopped their selling while the Optimism Index on crude sinks near its lows

 

Tags:  Commodities, Stocks And Sectors, Smart Money

   

High Yield Bonds Diverge Again

July 22, 2015

 

High yield "junk" bonds have been selling off again, while stocks have diverged by holding near recent highs

 

Tags:  Bonds, Breadth, Technicals

   

Confusion As Stocks Hit New Highs And New Lows

July 21, 2015

 

More than 4% of stocks in the S&P 500 have hit 52-week highs and 52-week lows over the past three days, last seen in 2000 and 2007

 

Tags:  Breadth, Technicals

   

Gold And Miners Enter Panic Phase

July 20, 2015

 

Panic selling hit gold and gold miners on Monday, with large losses to a new low after what had already been a week of daily selling pressure

 

Tags:  Commodities, Stocks And Sectors

   

Nasdaq Scores New High But On Negative Breadth

July 17, 2015

 

The Nasdaq 100 and Composite indexs surged to new highs but there were more declining than advancing stocks in both indexes, the first time since 2000

 

Tags:  Breadth

   

ETF Creations Reach New Record

July 16, 2015

 

The creation of new ETFs over the past several months has reached an all-time high, which usually occurs after big market rallies

 

Tags:  Cash

   

Wall Street Analysts Not Buying Into Earnings

July 15, 2015

 

The week before and after earnings season has not impressed analysts, who are among the most pessimistic they've been in the past five years

 

Tags:  Fundamentals

   

Three-Day Rally As A Potential Kick-Off

July 14, 2015

 

The S&P 500 has gained at least 0.5% for the past three days, coming off a multi-month low, raising the possibility we're seeing a bottom

 

Tags:  Technicals, Volatility

   

Down Days Dominate So Far In 2015

July 13, 2015

 

So far in 2015, more than half the days have been negative, the worst first six months since 2002, despite a flat market

 

Tags:  Volatility, Breadth

   

Opening Gaps Show  Extreme Risk Aversion

July 10, 2015

 

Traders are so averse to holding overnight that the S&P 500 futures have seen a large gap open 6 out of the past 10 days, once of the tightest clusters since their inception in 1982

 

Tags:  Volatility

   

CNN Fear & Greed Shows Panic

July 9, 2015

 

The Fear & Greed Index has dropped into the bottom 1% of all readings in 15 years, showing panic among investors

 

Tags:  Volatility, Indicators

   

Chinese Market Enters Panic Phase

July 8, 2015

 

The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a point that could be considered panicky, on a par with others over the past 15 years

 

Tags:  Volatility, Stocks And Sectors, Breadth

   

Gold As A Safe Haven During Crises

July 7, 2015

 

Gold has not been able to rally during the Greek crisis, but its tendency to be a safe haven is overrated anyway, and doesn't impact future performance

 

Tags:  Commodities

   

Smart Money Hedgers Get Out Of Their Shorts

July 6, 2015

 

Smart money large commercial hedgers in the equity index futures used recent volatility to greatly reduce their short positions

 

Tags:  Smart Money

   

Private Equity Investors Unload Shares To The Public

July 2, 2015

 

The number of companies selling shares to the public, backed by private equity or venture capital, has never been higher

 

Tags:  Smart Money

   

VIX / SPX Correlation Nears All-Time Record

July 1, 2015

 

The correlation between the VIX and S&P 500 has become extremely negative, as price changes are driving "fear", normally resulting in lower volatility ahead

 

Tags:  Volatility

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June

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Short Interest Hits Five-Year High

June 30, 2015

 

Short interest has hit its highest level since 2008 on the NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges; platinum Optix hits lowest level since 1998

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Nasdaq Composite Suffers A Shock Day

June 29, 2015

 

After hitting a 52-week high less than a week ago, the Nasdaq Composite suffered a 3 standard deviation selling day

 

Tags:  Volatility, Technicals

   

Grains Have Big Week After Smart Money Buys

June 26, 2015

 

Grains like wheat had a huge week, and other buying thrusts off of a low have often signaled longer-term gains

 

Tags:  Commodities

   

McClellan Breadth Indicators Diverge

June 25, 2015

 

The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index have turned negative, only days after the S&P was within 0.5% of a 52-week high

 

Tags:  Breadth. Stocks And Sectors

   

Billion-Dollar Stock Splits Often Lead To Weakness

June 24, 2015

 

When a large-cap stock like Netflix undergoes a large stock split, it tends to rally into the effective date, then weakens thereafter

 

Tags:  Stocks And Sectors, Volatility

   

Traders Give Up On Oil & Gas Stocks

June 23, 2015

 

Companies in the Oil & Gas and Services industries have the most pessimism in four years and is the most-hated group in the S&P 1500

 

Tags:  Stocks And Sectors, Volatility

   

Health Care Fund Flow Not Quite Extreme

June 22, 2015

 

A "net" view of fund flow into the XLV health-care ETF tempers the idea that recent fund inflows have been excessive

 

Tags:  Stocks And Sectors, Cash

   

Domestic vs Foreign Investors In Indian Stocks

June 19, 2015

 

Domestic fund flow has been positive in the Indian stock market, but negative from foreign funds, while sentiment on ETFs like PIN is pessimistic as well

 

Tags:  Stocks And Sectors, Cash

   

Active Managers Pull Back On Extremes

June 18, 2015

 

According to NAAIM, the most bullish investment manager is "only" 100% net long, while the most bearish is 150% short, one of the most skewed ratios in years

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Flows Into Financials Among Highest In Years

June 17, 2015

 

Assets in the Rydex financials funds are among the highest in a decade, while the flow in the XLF fund nears a multi-year high

 

Tags:  Stocks And Sectors

   

Bond Issuance Soars For Dividends, Buybacks

June 16, 2015

 

Companies have issued a record amount of debt over the past three months that is being used for dividends and share repurchases

 

Tags:  Bonds, Cash

   

Home Builder ETF Traders Are Optimistic

June 15, 2015

 

Traders in the XHB fund are much more optimistic than investors in individual home builder stocks

 

Tags:  Stocks And Sectors

   

Big Money Traders More Optimistic Than Mom-And-Pop

June 12, 2015

 

"Smart money" commercial hedgers in the major stock index futures are the most exposed to stocks in three years, while the AAII survey shows mom-and-pop retail traders are pessimistic

 

Tags:  Smart Money

   

AAII Survey Shows Extreme Pessimism Vs Everyone Else

June 11, 2015

 

Individual mom-and-pop investors in the AAII survey are showing one of the most pessimistic readings in history relative to other surveys, and recently they have been the smart money

 

Tags:  Smart Money

   

Municipal Bond Funds See Some Pessimism

June 10, 2015

 

Closed-end municipal bond funds are trading at a 10% discount to net asset value, one of the largest in 15 years

 

Tags:  Bonds

   

Rydex Traders Loving Tech Stocks

June 9, 2015

 

Traders in Rydex mutual funds have doubled their assets in some technology-focused funds, pushing total assets to a 13-year high

 

Tags:  Stocks And Sectors

   

Institutions Add To Money Market Funds

June 8, 2015

 

Large institutional investors are adding to their safe money market accounts while retail mom-and-pop investors have their lowest balances since 1998

 

Tags:  Cash, Smart Money

   

Penny Stock Traders Are Apathetic

June 5, 2015

 

Volume in penny stocks in May was the lowest since the bubble burst in 2002, highly unusual for a strong market environment

 

Tags:  Volatility

   

Bond Funds Suffer Massive Outflows

June 4, 2015

 

The most popular Treasury bond fund, TLT, has suffered a record outflow of funds over the past 100 days, amounting to about a third of its assets

 

Tags:  Bonds

   

Money Flows Into Volatility Funds

June 3, 2015

 

Money has flowed into volatility funds like VXX and out of inverse volatility funds like XIV, which has usually preceded an uptick in market movement

 

Tags:  Volatility, Smart Money

   

Wall Street Analysts Keep Looking For Upside

June 2, 2015

 

The S&P 500 has not exceeded Wall Street analysts' year-end price target for six months, marking one of the longest periods of under-valuation since 1999

 

Tags:  Smart Money

   

Gold-Related ETF Fund Flows Plunge

June 1, 2015

 

May fund flows into gold funds like GLD, GDX and GDXJ plunged to extremely low levels, along with interest-rate influenced funds like HYG and VNQ

 

Tags:  Commodities, Stocks And Sectors

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May

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Available Cash Plunges To Record Low

May 29, 2015

 

In April, investors fled cash and went into stocks, pushing many cash-based indicators to multi-year or multi-decade lows

 

Tags:  Cash

   

Unprofitable IPOs Continue To Rule

May 28, 2015

 

Over the past six months, the percentage of IPOs that are losing money has reached a new record

 

Tags:  Cash, Stocks And Sectors

   

Nasdaq Composite Enjoys A May Breakout

May 27, 2015

 

The Nasdaq Composite broke out to a new 52-week high, but other late-May breakouts had trouble sustaining themselves, and there were few component stocks along for the ride

 

Tags:  Breadth, Technicals

   

S&P Breaks Down From Tight Range

May 26, 2015

 

Stocks broke down from an extremely tight range while recently trading at a 52-week high

 

Tags:  Breadth, Technicals

   

4-Week Highs Tepid As S&P Breaks Out

May 22, 2015

 

The percentage of S&P 500 stocks at even a 4-week high remains tepid as the index itself breaks out to new all-time highs

 

Tags:  Breadth, Technicals

   

VIX Traders Betting On More Movement

May 21, 2015

 

Measures of VIX sentiment are showing that these traders are betting on a rebound in market movement, typically meaning a rise in VIX and decline in stocks

 

Tags:  Volatility

   

Stock / Bond Ratio Out Of Whack

May 20, 2015

 

The Stock / Bond Ratio has moved to an extreme, suggesting stocks are over-valued

 

Tags:  Volatility, Bonds

   

Extreme Skew Between Optimistic - Pessimistic Indicators

May 19, 2015

 

The spread between the % Of Indicators Showing Extreme Optimism and % Of Indicators Showing Extreme Pessimism is near a 15-year high

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Insiders Temper Their Selling Pressure

May 18, 2015

 

Corporate insiders have pulled back on the extreme selling pressure from last month, though it could pick up as earnings season winds down

 

Tags:  Smart Money

   

Stocks Stuck But Bulls Still Reign

May 15, 2015

 

There are more than 3 times as many newsletter bulls than bears, despite an extremely narrow range in stocks over the past 20 weeks

 

Tags:  Volatility

   

High Yield Bonds Suffer Massive Outflows

May 14, 2015

 

High-yield junk bond ETFs, HYG and JNK, have suffered their largest 20-day outlfows in the funds' histories

 

Tags:  Cash, Bonds

   

Options Traders Pricing In Volatile Bonds

May 13, 2015

 

In a rare occurrence, options traders are pricing in the likelihood that bonds will be more volatile than stocks

 

Tags:  Volatility, Options, Bonds

   

Art Market Reaches New Record

May 12, 2015

 

Sales of the highest-priced art works have reached a record over the past year, after adjusting for inflation, and previous peaks preceded stock corrections

 

Tags:  Cash

   

Bubble Concerns Are Overdone

May 11, 2015

 

Mentions about a stock market bubble have greatly dissipated over the past year, near the lowest in 15 years, unlike prior to the 2000 and 2007 peaks

 

Tags:  Volatility

   

Futures Positions Become More Constructive

May 8, 2015

 

Smart money hedgers halved their bets against equities while small speculators continue to flee, normally a positive sign for stocks

 

Tags:  Smart Money

   

IPO Market Has Dried Up

May 7, 2015

 

April was the slowest month for IPOs in at least five years, something normally seen after a protracted or severe market decline

 

Tags:  Cash

   

Bonds Suffer A Rate Shock

May 6, 2015

 

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has suffered a rate shock, a rapid rise, while the S&P 500 remains near a 52-week high

 

Tags:  Volatility, Bonds

   

Investors Flee Major Index ETFs

May 5, 2015

 

Big ETFs like SPY, QQQ, DIA and IWM saw extremely large outflows in April, while foreign funds dominated inflows

 

Tags:  Cash

   

Health-Care IPOs Reach Record

May 4, 2015

 

Health-care companies have reached a 30-year record of all IPOs, accounting for more than 35% of the total

 

Tags:  Stocks And Sectors

   

Stock Futures Speculators Lose Their Enthusiasm

May 1, 2015

 

Small speculators in S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and DJIA futures have held their lowest futures exposure in a year for three weeks in a row

 

Tags:  Indicators

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April

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Surveys Show Optimism Into Seasonal Soft Spot

April 30, 2015

 

The AIM Model shows extreme optimism among investors even as stocks head into a seasonal soft spot from May through October

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Mutual Funds Are Holding Too Little Cash

April 29, 2015

 

The Mutual Fund Cash Premium / Discount is showing that funds aren't holding enough cash, even accounting for interest rates

 

Tags:  Cash

   

Investors Still Apathetic On Future Stock Gains

April 28, 2015

 

The Conference Board survey of investors showed that those expecting higher prices weren't much more numerous than those expecting lower ones

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Big Money Struggles For An Opinion

April 27, 2015

 

The Barron's Big Money poll showed a record high of neutral responses, but those who did have an opinion were near a record high of optimism

 

Tags:  Smart Money

   

Margin Debt Growth Doesn't Keep Pace With Stocks

April 24, 2015

 

Margin debt has increased to a new record, but its year-over-year growth hasn't matched the S&P 500's, unlike previous market peaks

 

Tags:  Cash

   

S&P And Nasdaq Join Hands At New Highs

April 23, 2015

 

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs, but previous breakouts in April have led to choppy summer months

 

Tags:  Technicals

   

S&P Bullish ETF Assets Trail Bearish Assets

April 22, 2015

 

Assets in long-only S&P 500 ETFs have dwindled compared to assets in short-only ETFs, a divergence seen in early 2013 and 2014

 

Tags:  Technicals

   

Investors Favoring Russia Over UK

April 21, 2015

 

Sentiment on a speculative market like Russia is far outpacing that of a more established market like the UK

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Options Speculation Spikes Again

April 20, 2015

 

Options activity across exchanges nears recent highs as speculative strategies overwhelm protective ones

 

Tags:  Options

   

Smart Money Is Betting On Agriculture

April 17, 2015

 

Hedgers in ag futures like sugar, corn, soybeans, cattle, cotton and hogs have established one of their most bullish positions in 16 years

 

Tags:  Commodities

   

Speculative ETF Volume Sinks

April 16, 2015

 

Volume in leveraged and inverse ETFs has shrunk to one of the lowest levels in five years, a sign of a complacent market

 

Tags:  Volatility

   

Dow Theory Divergence

April 15, 2015

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is near a multi-year high, while the Transportation and Utilities Averages are more than -5% below their own highs

 

Tags:  Technicals, Breadth

   

ETF Options Traders Paying Up For Protection

April 14, 2015

 

Traders in SPY, QQQ, IWM and DIA options are paying up for put protection as the bull market ages, similar to 2007

 

Tags:  Options

   

Wall Street Analysts Reduce Earnings Expectations

April 13, 2015

 

Analysts have reduced expectations on many more companies than they've raised them on, leading to one of the largest differences in five years

 

Tags:  Fundamentals

   

VIX Traders Betting On A Jump

April 10, 2015

 

Volatility traders are betting heavily on an increase in volatility, as VIX Sentiment moves to an extreme last seen several months ago

 

Tags:  Options, Volatility

   

Penny Stock Traders Remain Subdued

April 9, 2015

 

In the OTC market, penny stock traders are not showing any speculative fervor, with low volume relative to the Nasdaq Composite

 

Tags:  Volatility

   

Trend Persistence Nears Record

April 8, 2015

 

As pointed out by James Paulsen from Wells Capital, the S&P 500's trend has approached all-time record highs

 

Tags:  Technicals

   

Crude Volatility Nears Previous Bottoms

April 7, 2015

 

Swings in crude oil over the past four weeks, after a sustained decline, have matched other long-term price lows

 

Tags:  Commodities

   

Confidence Spread Is Narrowing

April 6, 2015

 

The spread between Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence is narrowing; options traders much prefer calls to puts

 

Tags:  Options, Smart Money

   

Rydex Traders Like Banking; Options Traders Bet Against S&P Indexes

April 2, 2015

 

Traders in the Rydex family of mutual funds have jumped into banking and financial services; options traders on the S&P 500 and S&P 100 are holding 200 puts for every 100 calls

 

Tags:  Options, Stocks And Sectors

   

Mom And Pop Love Stocks, Hate Cash; Bond Traders Avoid Put Options

April 1, 2015

 

According to AAII, investor stock exposure is highest since 2007, cash lowest since 2000; bond option put/call ratio is near the lowest in three years

 

Tags:  Cash, Bonds, Options

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March

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Gold Bugs Drop Below Average; Sugar Sentiment Sours

March 31, 2015

 

No members of the HUI Gold Bugs Index are trading above their moving averages; sugar sentiment nears an all-time low

 

Tags:  Commodities, Stocks And Sectors

   

Buying Power Dries Up; Equity Assets Soar Above Cash Assets

March 30, 2015

 

Margin debt increased, cash decreased, so Available Cash nears lowest levels ever; equity mutual fund assets hit new record against money market assets

 

Tags:  Cash

   

Selling Pressure Eases; Hedgers Increase Energy, Euro Positions

March 27, 2015

 

Down Pressure on the S&P has eased, traditionally a positive short-term sign; in energy contracts and the euro, hedgers have improved their positions

 

Tags:  Indicators, Commodities

   

Bond Traders Show Extreme Optimism

March 26, 2015

 

The Optimism Index for bonds jumped to one of its highest levels of the past decade

 

Tags:  Bonds

   

Nasdaq Suffers Large Loss; Biotech Deteriorates

March 25, 2015

 

The Nasdaq Composite suffered its worst loss in more than 200 days, while IBB breadth deteriorated at the quickest pace in history

 

Tags:  Technicals, Volatility, Breadth, Stocks And Sectors

   

Nasdaq 100 Optimism Increases, Same With Precious Metals

March 24, 2015

 

Optimism on QQQ has gone into optimistic territory; in gold, silver and natural gas, optimism is climbing out of extremely pessimistic conditions

 

Tags:  Indicators, Commodities

   

Volatility Traders Bet On Increase; Stocks Wobble

March 23, 2015

 

Traders in the VXX fund are bullish, expecting a rise in volatility; when SPY nears a record on low volume, it has led to a pullback every time in the past two years

 

Tags:  Volatility, Technicals

   

Biotech Reversal, Volatility Traders Get Negative

March 20, 2015

 

After an extreme in biotechnology fund (IBB) breadth, it suffers a negative reversal; VIX term structure turns negative; gold hedgers reach extreme

 

Tags:  Indicators, Volatility, Commodities, Stocks And Sectors

   

Individual Investors Decrease Bullishness

March 19, 2015

 

According to AAII, investor optimism has dropped, but not to previous extremes, and the CSFB index shows options traders are paying up for put protection

 

Tags:  Indicators, Volatility

   

Small Caps Again Try To Lead On FOMC Decision

March 18, 2015

 

Small cap Russell 2000 index has closed at a 52-week high on a day the Federal Reserve announced its intention on interest rates

 

Tags:  Technicals, Breadth, Fed

   

Small Caps Trying To Lead A Breakout

March 17, 2015

 

Small cap Russell 2000 index has (almost) closed at a 52-week high while the S&P 500 is 2% below its high, a divergence

 

Tags:  Technicals, Breadth

   

Volatility Is High Despite Near-Record Prices

March 16, 2015

 

The S&P 500 endured another 1% daily move, its 20th in the past three months, despite being within 2% off a multi-year high

 

 

Tags:  Volatility

   

And The Surveys Show...More Caution

March 13, 2015

 

The AIM Model, incorporating a number of different sentiment surveys, shows a big drop over the past week

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Traders Have Changed Their Tune On High Yield

March 12, 2015

 

High-yield junk bond funds HYG, JNK and PHB have seen near-record outflows over the past two weeks

 

 

Tags:  Bonds

   

Gold Stocks Completing "Puke" Phase

March 11, 2015

 

The XAU Gold And Silver Index has lost more than -1% on six out of seven days, a sign of exhaustive selling pressure in XAU, HUI, GDX and other gold-related indexes

 

 

Tags:  Commodities, Stocks And Sectors

   

Multiple Big Down Days From A High

March 10, 2015

 

The S&P 500 suffered two 1.25% declines in the past three sessions, after recently setting a 52-week high

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Volatility

   

A Curiously Quick Jump In New Lows

March 9, 2015

 

On the NYSE, securities hitting 52-week lows exceeded those hitting 52-week highs, despite the S&P 500 being within 2.5% of a new high

 

 

Tags:  Breadth

   

Cash Is Not In Demand

March 6, 2015

 

According to 7 different cash-based indicators, investor holdings of cash is among the lowest levels in a decade, a confluence rarely seen

 

 

Tags:  Cash

   

Tech Insiders Sell While Their Companies Buy

March 5, 2015

 

Corporate insiders in technology companies are selling heavily while company buybacks are on pace for record highs

 

 

Tags:  Smart Money

   

Stock Shares Outstanding Dump While Volatility Shares Jump

March 4, 2015

 

Shares outstanding in SPY have declined over the past three months, while shares in volatility ETFs like VXX, UVXY and TVIX have continued to rise

 

 

Tags:  Volatility, Indicators

   

Smart Money Vs The Public In The Options Market

March 3, 2015

 

The OEX Determination Index is showing smart money caution, the opposite of what public option indicators are showing

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Smart Money, Options

   

Speculation Reaches The Options Market

March 2, 2015

 

Traders last week used 30% more bullish than bearish options strategies, pushing the Options Speculation Index to the top 2% of all readings

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Options

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February

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Volatility Traders Betting On A (Fear) Rebound

February 27, 2015

 

Traders in volatility ETFs have sent shares outstanding soaring, typically seen before an uptick in volatility and struggling stocks

 

 

Tags:  Volatility, Indicators

   

Not A Good Extreme In Sentiment

February 26, 2015

 

The spread between smart money and dumb money confidence has reached -40%, the worst since last June

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Smart Money

   

Newsletters Are More Optimistic Than Usual

February 25, 2015

 

According to Investor's Intelligence, newsletter writers are nearly 15 percentage points more optimistic than usual with the S&P 500 at a 3-year high

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

A Surge In "Junk" Cash Flow

February 24, 2015

 

High yield "junk" ETFs like HYG, JNK and PHB have seen a big jump in money flowing into the funds over the past month

 

 

Tags:  Bonds, Stocks And Sectors

   

Firing On All Cylinders

February 23, 2015

 

All four major stock indexes, the S&P 500, DJIA, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Composite, have broken to new multi-year highs together, confirming heavy buying interest

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Breadth

   

Getting Close To Greed

February 20, 2015

 

The CNN Fear & Greed model, estimated from existing data, shows that investors are close to showing extreme greed

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Nasdaq Stocks Aren't Participating Like The Index

February 19, 2015

 

The Nasdaq Composite has hit a 52-week high every day for the past week, but no more than 5% of its components have also hit a new high

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Breadth

   

Arms Index Suggests Stocks Are Overbought

February 18, 2015

 

The 10-day Arms Index (TRIN) has started to reverse up out of an extremely overbought reading

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Traders Are Feeling Comfortable With Stocks

February 17, 2015

 

Liquidity Premiums for SPY and QQQ show that traders are preferring to trade individual stocks versus the most liquid ETFs

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Stocks Finally Break Out To A New High

February 13, 2015

 

The S&P 500 broke out to a 52-week high after consolidating in a range for the past several months, but watch out for failure

 

 

Tags:  Technicals

   

Companies Keep Lowering Earnings Expectations

February 12, 2015

 

Companies have been guiding analysts to lower their earnings expectations, leading to one of the lowest up / down outlook ratios in 15 years

 

 

Tags:  Fundamentals

   

Utilities Suffer Swift, Sharp Pullback

February 11, 2015

 

Utilities stocks have dropped sharply from a high over the past three weeks, but its track record as a warning sign is mixed

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Volatility, Stocks And Sectors

   

Economic Releases Are Surprising To The Downside

February 10, 2015

 

Economic releases, according to the Citi Economic Surprise Index, have been extremely disappointing, while stocks have held strong

 

 

Tags:  Fundamentals

   

What Are Volatility Traders Up To?

February 9, 2015

 

Options traders in the VIX have the lowest open interest in call options in years, while futures traders in the VIX are net long

 

 

Tags:  Volatility

   

High Optimism In High Yield Bonds

February 6, 2015

 

Extreme pessimism in mid-December in high-yield junk bonds HYG, JNK and PHB has reversed to high optimism

 

 

Tags:  Bonds

   

Traders Sour On Financials While Insiders Buy

February 5, 2015

 

Optimism on the most active financial ETF, XLF, has soured to one of the worst levels in a decade while smart money insiders buy aggressively

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Smart Money, Stocks And Sectors

   

Crude Oil Volatility Is Increasing, And Look For More

February 4, 2015

 

Crude oil has seen three moves of more than 7% in the past four days, which is likely the beginning of a bottoming process, but it has a ways to go to match previous bottoms

 

 

Tags:  Commodities

   

Earnings Expectations Continue To Sink

February 3, 2015

 

Analysts have continued to bring down estimated earnings for S&P 500 companies, now down more than 5% from the peak, only the sixth time since 1990

 

 

Tags:  Fundamentals

   

What Is Scaring People Right Now?

February 2, 2015

 

Among a variety of potentially scary developments, only interest rates and the dollar are showing a notable impact on the VIX fear gauge

 

 

Tags:  Volatility

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January

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Bulls Remain Optimistic While Stocks Correct

January 30, 2015

 

According to Investor's Intelligence, newsletter writers are still highly optimistic despite two straight monthly declines from a 12-month high in the S&P 500

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Federal Reserve Gives Economy A "Solid"

January 29, 2015

 

The FOMC policy statement upgraded the US economy to "solid" for the first time since October 2007; we look at "solid" and "weak" mentions in their statements

 

 

Tags:  Fed

   

Heavy Selling During A Bull Market

January 28, 2015

 

Selling interest was heavy on the NYSE, as the Arms Index (TRIN) soared above 3, a rare feat during a bull market

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Breadth

   

Traders Keep Dumping S&P 500 Shares

January 27, 2015

 

Traders in the major S&P 500 exchange-traded funds, SPY, SSO, IVV and VOO, have left, leading to an outflow of more than $20 billion in the past three weeks

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Cash

   

Bond Volatility Trumps Stocks'

January 26, 2015

 

Volatility in the bond market has remained high, despite rising prices there, while stock volatility has declined, prompting an extreme in the MOVE / VIX Ratio

 

 

Tags:  Volatility, Indicators

   

Ag And Soft Contracts Collapse

January 23, 2015

 

Like some other commodities, grains and other soft contracts have collapsed, and the latest "buy" signals have failed to lead to any kind of positive price action

 

 

Tags:  Commodities

   

A Plethora Of 1% Moves

January 22, 2015

 

The S&P 500 fund, SPY, has moved 1% every day for the past three weeks, an unusually persistent stretch of volatility so soon after a 52-week high

 

 

Tags:  Volatility

   

Stock Returns Vs "Fear" Correlation

January 21, 2015

 

Stocks and volatility usually move in opposite directions, but when they travel in the same direction, and stocks are near a high, then it often pays to worry

 

 

Tags:  Volatility, Indicators

   

Rig Count Lags Crude Oil Badly

January 20, 2015

 

The count of active crude oil wells has declined 15% over the past six weeks, but crude oil leads the rig count by months, and suggests oil may be near an inflection point

 

 

Tags:  Commodities

   

Wall Street Analysts Are Downgrading

January 16, 2015

 

Wall Street analysts have been busy downgrading prospects for companies in the S&P 500, both in terms of their earnings estimates and price targets

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Arms Index (TRIN) Shows Persistent Selling Pressure

January 15, 2015

 

A popular measure of market breadth has been showing more selling than buying pressure almost every day since late December

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Breadth

   

Strategists Consider S&P 500 Undervalued

January 14, 2015

 

Wall Street strategists have a consensus price target more than 11% above the S&P 500's current level; stocks have often bottomed when that gets closer to 20%

 

 

Tags:  Smart Money

   

Diverging Opinions On The Dollar

January 13, 2015

 

US dollar smart money hedgers are net short at a record degree, at the same time that Rydex fund traders are nearing a record long

 

 

Tags:  Commodities

 

   

Volatility Spikes Are Getting More Common

January 12, 2015

 

Volatility spikes have increased more than during any other stretch of this bull market, similar to 1999 and 2007

 

 

Tags:  Volatility, Indicators

   

Futures Traders Heading For The Exit

January 9, 2015

 

Smart Money hedgers in index futures have moved to an extreme short position

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Smart Money

 

   

Everybody (?) Is Bullish

January 8, 2015

 

Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence is both in extremely optimistic territory, second only to late 2003 / early 2004

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

A Cluster Of Despised Omens

January 7, 2015

 

A cluster of Hindenburg Omen signals have triggered, one of the most concentrated in 50 years

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Breadth

   

Failure Is Sometimes An Option

January 6, 2015

 

The Russell 2000 small-cap index has suffered a failed breakout from a 52-week high

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Volatility

   

Mom And Pop Embrace Stocks, Shun Cash

January 5, 2015

 

Individual investors, via the AAII survey, show the widest spread between stock and cash exposure since 2000

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Cash

   

Cash Continues To Be Scarce

January 2, 2015

 

Cash on the sidelines has dwindled, and while it preceded several important stock peaks, its lead time was inconsistent

 

 

Tags:  Cash

 

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