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Previous years:  [ 2010 ]  [ 2009 ]  [ 2008 ]  [ 2007 ]  [ 2006 ]  [2005]  [2004]  [2003]  [2002]

 

2010 COMMENTS

Jump to month:  Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec

 

 

July

 

07/23/10......Morning Report

                   The 4-week AAII Ratio has dropped to an extreme (for a bull market)

 

07/22/10......Morning Report

                   Wall Street strategists moved to a one-year high in stocks as they fell

 

07/21/10......Morning Report

                   Sentiment on the Japanese Yen is overly optimistic...a positive for the S&P

 

07/20/10......Morning Report

                   With a choppy market and conflicting extremes, there isn't much edge

 

07/19/10......Morning Report

                   Extremely low Up Volume after a rally has been short-term bullish

 

07/16/10......Morning Report

                   A new all-time high NYSE TICK means short-term buying exhaustion

 

07/15/10......Morning Report

                   Newsletter writers become more bearish; AAII Bull Ratio jumps

 

07/14/10......Morning Report

                   NYSE Up Volume has shifted from oversold to overbought; Intel gaps

 

07/13/10......Morning Report

                   Intel earnings as a bellwether when stocks are not near a price extreme

 

07/12/10......Morning Report

                   S&P Down Pressure near an 8-year extreme low

 

07/09/10......Morning Report

                   Upside follow-through from a multi-month low

 

07/08/10......Morning Report

                   Arms Index thrust; AAII pessimism; OTC volume drop

 

07/07/10......Morning Report

                   Testing the Head & Shoulders pattern; daily Price Oscillator; Rydex traders

 

07/06/10......Morning Report

                   Almost no Fidelity Select funds have beaten the return on cash

 

07/02/10......Morning Report

                   The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day avg is extremely low

 

07/01/10......Morning Report

                   The AAII survey of individual investors drops to a notable extreme

 

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June

 

06/30/10......Morning Report

                   The Baltic Dry Index as a predictor; the S&P's imminent "death cross"

 

06/29/10......Morning Report

                   What happens when there's excessive pessimism heading into earnings

 

06/28/10......Morning Report

                   NDX vs. breadth; weekly bearish engulfing pattern; small option traders

 

06/25/10......Morning Report

                   Determining if the 150-day moving average is a good measure of trend

 

06/24/10......Morning Report

                   Looking at the 10-week / 30-week moving average crossover in the S&P

 

06/23/10......Morning Report

                   What happens when the Arms Index has spiked prior to other FOMC days

 

06/22/10......Morning Report

                   Monday's price reversal isn't a good predictor; FOMC-day biases

 

06/21/10......Morning Report

                   China's currency change caused knee-jerk moves similar to last time

 

06/18/10......Morning Report

                   The McClellan Oscillator has gone from deeply oversold to overbought

 

06/17/10......Morning Report

                   Bears in the AAII survey have dropped huge despite a tepid stock rally

 

06/16/10......Morning Report

                   We've now seen five 90% Up Volume days in the past month

 

06/15/10......Morning Report

                   The market's stuck in a range and our indicators are mostly neutral

 

06/14/10......Morning Report

                   The ROBO Put/Call Ratio shows small traders betting on the downside

 

06/11/10......Morning Report

                   The Arms Index hit a historically low level, coming soon after a high one

 

06/10/10......Morning Report

                   Assets in the inverse S&P fund at Rydex is very high, bull/bear ratio is low

 

06/09/10......Morning Report

                   A divergence between the SPX vs. NDX and RUT; US Dollar sentiment

 

06/08/10......Morning Report

                   Nasdaq Arms Index closes above 3 for two days in a row

 

06/07/10......Morning Report

                   Over-The-Counter volume drops after the May crash

 

06/04/10......Morning Report

                   One-month changes in AAII allocations; first double up days in a month

 

06/03/10......Morning Report

                   Up Volume surges, but volatility makes it less useful; AAII allocations

 

06/02/10......Morning Report

                   Double 1% down days may be bullish, but it's not a huge edge

 

06/01/10......Morning Report

                   Mutual fund cash levels tick higher; money market assets dip

 

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May

 

05/28/10......Morning Report

                   Thrust in Up Issues and Up Volume is bullish; big outflow in equity funds

 

05/27/10......Morning Report

                   The ADX indicator says end of downtrend is near; AAII; Memorial Day

 

05/26/10......Morning Report

                   What the Smart Money Index says about early strength, late weakness

 

05/25/10......Morning Report

                   Dumb Money Confidence drops to a notable level of pessimism

 

05/24/10......Morning Report

                   Price reversals, Rydex traders and small options traders

 

05/21/10......Morning Report

                   First close below 200-day average; Int-term Score, other extremes

 

05/20/10......Intraday Report

                   Recapping a few of the extremes we're seeing today

 

05/20/10......Morning Report

                   Inverse ETF volume surges; AAII bulls aren't phased by market decline

 

05/19/10......Morning Report

                   We take a look at earnings off-season following very bad earnings seasons

 

05/18/10......Morning Report

                   Yale's Buy-On-Dips Confidence shows a big gulf between pros and joes

 

05/17/10......Morning Report

                   Multiple days with an Up Issues Ratio under 10% during the past month

 

05/14/10......Morning Report

                   Mutual funds start to see big outflows; Rydex sectors vs. Precious Metals

 

05/13/10......Morning Report

                   Why the 62% retracement of prior "crashes" has been an important level

 

05/12/10......Morning Report

                   Rydex traders have abandoned the sector funds; I.I. bullishness drops

 

05/11/10......Morning Report

                   Breadth thrusts; large gaps up after making a multi-month low

 

05/10/10......Morning Report

                   A historic McClellan Oscillator reading; erasing two months' worth of gains

 

05/07/10......Morning Report

                   We take a look at other "shock days" and how the market acted afterward

 

05/06/10......Morning Report

                   AAII asset allocation shows little change; insider selling hits extreme again

 

05/05/10......Intraday Report

                   What happens when selling pressure starts to ebb

 

05/05/10......Intraday Report

                   The latest release from Investor's Intelligence shows an uptick in bulls

 

05/05/10......Morning Report

                   Penny stock volume increases; a look at Rydex sector assets

 

05/04/10......Morning Report

                   Watching for a violation of 1180 support on the S&P

 

05/03/10......Morning Report

                   Buying climaxes reach a 14-year high; small options traders still bullish

 

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April

 

04/30/10......Morning Report

                   Big price flip-flops; mutual fund cash levels drop to new record low

 

04/29/10......Morning Report

                   AAII bulls rise despite a down market; post-FOMC performance

 

04/28/10......Morning Report

                   Another largest loss in two months; surge in Rydex Nasdaq speculation

 

04/27/10......Morning Report

                   Total put/call ratio; Rydex Bull Ratio; NYSE New Highs; NYSE Arms Index

 

04/26/10......Morning Report

                   Barron's Big Money likes stocks, hates T-Bonds and Cash

 

04/23/10......Morning Report

                   Huge momentum - 31 up days over the past two months

 

04/22/10......Morning Report

                   Looking at the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day average

 

04/21/10......Morning Report

                   Historical market reactions to gaps up after Apple earnings reports

 

04/20/10......Morning Report

                   Apple carries a huge weight in the NDX, and options traders are bullish

 

04/19/10......Morning Report

                   Small options traders are extremely bullish; large one-day declines

 

04/16/10......Morning Report

                   The Intermediate-term Indicator Score gives a rare reading

 

04/15/10......Morning Report

                   We're seeing too many extremes to mention today, but go over a handful

 

04/14/10......Morning Report

                   The VIX gives a sell signal; how Intel trades after its earnings reports

 

04/13/10......Morning Report

                   Rydex Banking assets become extreme; Intel earnings as a bellwether

 

04/12/10......Morning Report

                   The S&P's streak without a 1% down day; options speculation nears high

 

04/09/10......Morning Report

                   Another look at junk bond issuance; seasonality during tax season

 

04/08/10......Morning Report

                   When the S&P is at a high into earnings season, it's hard to sustain

 

04/07/10......Morning Report

                   Smart/Dumb Money Confidence at multi-year extreme; OTC volume rises

 

04/06/10......Morning Report

                   Put/Call Ratios have reached historical extremes; Rydex sector assets too

 

04/05/10......Morning Report

                   Active investment managers are extremely long, as are large call buyers

 

04/01/10......Morning Report

                   The CSFB Fear Barometer is throwing off a very unusual reading

 

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March

 

03/31/10......Morning Report

                   Quarter-end seasonality belies the "window dressing" theme

 

03/30/10......Morning Report

                   Junk bond issuance hits a record; Equity put/call ratio enjoys a rare streak

 

03/29/10......Morning Report

                   Small options traders lack protection; NDX "smart money" turns bearish

 

03/26/10......Morning Report

                   Why the S&P 500 intraday reversal isn't necessarily a sign of a top

 

03/25/10......Morning Report

                   Rydex Nasdaq Bull/Bear Ratio spikes higher; AAII "wall of worry"

 

03/24/10......Morning Report

                   More than 80% of Rydex sector funds are enjoying above-average assets

 

03/22/10......Morning Report

                   A temporary end to the momentum; ROBO put/call ratio; Crude Oil

 

03/19/10......Morning Report

                   Investment managers jump on board the rally; so do Rydex traders

 

03/18/10......Morning Report

                   New highs surge to 20% of total issues; Dumb Money rises above 70%

 

03/17/10......Morning Report

                   S&P has gone 15 days w/o a 0.25% loss; put/call ratios suggest a pause

 

03/16/10......Morning Report

                   The VIX is at an 80% premium to historical volatility; FOMC days intraday

 

03/15/10......Morning Report

                   Options Speculation Index surges to the highest level since spring of 2000

 

03/12/10......Morning Report

                   Up Volume is historically overbought; STEM.MR oversold in an up market

 

03/11/10......Morning Report

                   S&P 500 is up for 9 straight days; Beta Chases suggests a rest for risk

 

03/10/10......Morning Report

                   Put/call ratios hit a one-day extreme; British Pound sentiment is terrible

 

03/09/10......Morning Report

                   Looking at the one-year change in mutual fund cash levels

 

03/08/10......Morning Report

                   The small-cap Russell 2000 index has been up 16 out of 18 days

 

03/05/10......Morning Report

                   Rydex traders go huge into inverse funds; Payroll report tendencies

 

03/04/10......Morning Report

                   Insider selling in the NDX; AAII bearish %; Rydex Value vs. Growth

 

03/03/10......Morning Report

                   The VIX has dropped 14 out of 15 days...that's a new all-time record

 

03/02/10......Morning Report

                   When the advance/decline line hits a new high and the S&P 500 doesn't

 

03/01/10......Morning Report

                   Consumer Confidence plunges; small traders reduce speculative buying

 

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February

 

02/26/10......Morning Report

                   Individual investors are the most neutral in four years; equity p/c ratio

 

02/25/10......Morning Report

                   What happens when the Russell 2000 breaks a 9-day up streak

 

02/24/10......Morning Report

                   Rydex Enthusiasm Index and pessimistic sentiment on the Swiss Franc

 

02/23/10......Morning Report

                   A look at Fed Chairmans' Humphrey Hawkins testimony

 

02/22/10......Morning Report

                   Extreme short-term momentum after oversold readings is inconclusive

 

02/19/10......Morning Report

                   What happens in stocks, bonds and commodities after first rate hike

 

02/18/10......Morning Report

                   The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 10- and 50-day averages

 

02/17/10......Morning Report

                   A spike in short-term overbought readings usually leads to a lapse

 

02/16/10......Morning Report

                   Small options traders and investment managers decrease their bullishness

 

02/12/10......Morning Report

                   Penny stock volume shows no sign of excessive speculation

 

02/11/10......Morning Report

                   Investor's Intelligence correction % may be more "smart" money than not

 

02/10/10......Morning Report

                   Rydex breadth indicator has reached oversold

 

02/09/10......Morning Report

                   Rydex sector assets; performance around Humphrey Hawkins testimony

 

02/08/10......Morning Report

                   Small options traders still not grabbing protection; S&P reversal days

 

02/05/10......Morning Report

                   Looking at failures of double 1% up days from a low

 

02/04/10......Intraday Report

                   What happens when the S&P drops 2% ahead of Nonfarm Payroll report

 

02/04/10......Morning Report

                   Individual investors have reduced their equity exposure in favor of bonds

 

02/03/10......Morning Report

                   Short-term follow-through from the 1% up days is a key tell

 

02/02/10......Research Report

                   Why consecutive 1% up days after a low doesn't always mean a bottom

 

02/02/10......Morning Report

                   Yesterday's bounce would mark an unlikely bottom

 

02/01/10......Morning Report

                   A surge in the Intermediate-term Score; oversold McClellan; Wheat futures

 

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January

 

01/29/10......Morning Report

                   The VIX / S&P divergence is an inconsistent predictor

 

01/28/10......Morning Report

                   Individual investors turning more neutral; seasonal pattern is changing

 

01/27/10......Research Report

                   Newsletter writer optimism shows one of its biggest drops in decades

 

01/27/10......Morning Report

                   Rydex traders fleeing to the safest funds; Lumber begins a new uptrend

 

01/26/10......Morning Report

                   The Cumulative TICK dropped to its lowest level in 10 months

 

01/25/10......Research Report

                   How the market performs surrounding State Of The Union speeches

 

01/25/10......Morning Report

                   An extreme in the Short-term Score; quick, large declines from a 52-wk hi

 

01/22/10......Intraday Report

                   Consecutive 10% jumps in the VIX tends to lead to short-term bounces

 

01/22/10......Morning Report

                   Rydex traders have quickly abandoned the Precious Metals fund

 

01/21/10......Morning Report

                   A "top spotter" table shows we have few conditions seen at major peaks

 

01/20/10......Morning Report

                   We take a look at the divergence in a couple of OEX options indicators

 

01/19/10......Morning Report

                   Small options traders continue to disregard protective puts, but buy calls

 

01/15/10......Morning Report

                   Intel earnings reports tend to precede multi-week corrections

 

01/14/10......Morning Report

                   Market performance during earnings season when sentiment is optimistic

 

01/13/10......Morning Report

                   A VIX sell signal; Rydex traders hit speculative extreme

 

01/12/10......Morning Report

                   Inverse ETF volume remains extremely low; earnings season predictor

 

01/11/10......Morning Report

                   Last week traders bought more calls, and less puts, since 2000.

 

01/08/10......Morning Report

                   The Equity Put/Call Ratio signals caution

 

01/07/10......Morning Report

                   Individual investors' allocation to stocks surges, and to cash craters

 

01/06/10......Morning Report

                   Rydex traders go (very) long the NDX; a look at gold sentiment

 

01/05/10......Research Report

                   We take a look at each months' ability to predict the next 11 months

 

01/05/10......Morning Report

                   A look at Rydex sector assets; hedgers are extremely net long the Euro

 

01/04/10......Morning Report

                   The Rydex Beta Chase Index has spiked to a multi-month high

 

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