June
06/18/13......There isn't anything new to report as traders await the
Fed decision tomorrow
06/17/13......The S&P's range over the past 10 days is more than 75%
higher than the prior three months
06/14/13......Small speculators in Treasury Note and Bond futures
have reached a 6-year extreme net short position
06/13/13......Breadth, via the Up Issues Ratio, has abruptly switched
from extremely oversold to extremely overbought in 3 days
06/12/13......A composite indicator score for gold has reached
maximum pessimism but the metal is having a hard time rallying
06/11/13......Assets in defensive sector funds at Rydex have declined
from recent extremes
06/10/13......A tight cluster of Hindenburg Omen signals suggests the
likelihood of weakness over the next several months
06/07/13......The Risk Appetite Index has cycled down into
"risk-averse" territory for the first time in a year
06/06/13......After becoming extremely oversold, breadth via the Up
Issues Ratio surged to its highest level in over a month
06/05/13......Over-The-Counter penny stock dollar volume has exploded
higher, to a new record relative to the Nasdaq Composite
06/04/13......Breadth, according to the Up Issues Ratio, has become
oversold soon after the S&P 500 hit a 52-week high
06/03/13......The MOVE Index of bond option implied volatility has
soared well above the VIX "fear gauge" for stocks
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to top)
May
05/31/13......Smart money commercial hedgers in DJIA and Nasdaq 100
futures have moved to a record net short position
05/30/13......Both the US dollar and S&P 500 have recently hit
52-week highs, but now the dollar has suffered its worst 2-day loss in nearly a
year
05/29/13......The CS Fear Barometer and CBOE Skew Index are
suggesting low risk for equities, but that's odd given historical patterns
05/28/13......The number of stock splits in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
Composite is nowhere near past peaks
05/24/13......NYSE margin debt continues to rise, pushing investors'
net worth, or available cash, to an extreme seen only in the year 2000
05/23/13......Rydex mutual fund traders now have more than 5 times
worth of assets in bullish index funds than bearish (inverse) ones
05/22/13......The OEX put/call ratio and open interest ratio are
unusually low, showing that "smart money" is potentially bullish on stocks
05/21/13......A long-term Price Oscillator on the S&P 500 has reached
a historic extreme; five of six prior instances led to corrections
05/20/13......Tech IPOs that have returned 50% or more on their first
day have spelled trouble for the market over the past decade
05/17/13......Lumber futures have tumbled 20% in two months, while
the S&P 500 sits at a new high
05/16/13......New 52-week highs on the NYSE have been historically
high...for four months
05/15/13......The Stock / Bond Ratio has surged above 3
05/14/13......Rydex mutual fund traders have stashed nearly 5 times
the assets in bullish index funds than bearish ones
05/13/13......Stocks and 10-Year Treasury Note yields have both
rallied over the past two weeks
05/10/13......Small speculators in precious metals (gold, silver,
copper, platinum, palladium) have gone net short for first time since 1990
05/09/13......The Bull Ratio in the AAII survey of individual
investors has rebounded 30% in only four weeks
05/08/13......The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index are both
overbought, a sign of impressive momentum
05/07/13......There hasn't been
too much of a change in our sentiment indicators
05/06/13......Over-The-Counter (OTC)
penny stock volume showed another speculative rise in April
05/03/13......The Dow Jones Industrial
Average is close to closing above a major round number
05/02/13......Wall Street strategists
have upped their S&P 500 price targets again, making a 13% gain in six months
05/01/13......Individual investors (via
AAII) and Wall Street strategists have picked up their allocations to the stock
market
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April
04/30/13......Assets in stock funds and
ETFs now total more than 3.3 times what's invested in safe money market funds
04/29/13......Investors' available cash
(free credit minus margin debt) at NYSE firms hits a 13-year low
04/26/13......Smart money commercial
hedgers in heating oil have gone net long to a record degree, while the public
is pessimistic
04/25/13......The S&P 500 is close to a
52-week high while the Economic Surprise Index is below zero
04/24/13......Traders in the Rydex
mutual funds have moved aggressively into defensive sectors
04/23/13......Defensive stocks have
been leading the market higher, but historically that has not been a cause for
concern
04/22/13......The Barron's Big Money
poll shows that large money managers are the most bullish they've been in 20
years
04/19/13......Stocks hitting new
52-week lows on the NYSE increased to more than 3% of the total, the first time
in 100 days
04/18/13......The S&P 500 has dropped
below its 50-day average, and has been preceded by the Nasdaq and Russell 2000
04/17/13......The Nasdaq Composite
index has fallen below its 50-day average after enjoying more than three months
above it
04/16/13......Monday's decline was a
mini shock day, and notable given the S&P 500's recent 52-week high
04/15/13......The VIX "fear gauge"
jumped more than 40% on Monday, its 8th-largest one-day rise in history
04/12/13......The SKEW index is showing
a rapidly decreasing probability of a "black swan" event
04/11/13......Volume in leveraged
exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has not increased as the market rallied
04/11/13......Brief - Individual
investors in the AAII survey show only 19% bulls, the lowest since March 2009
04/10/13......The S&P 500 surged 1% to
a new 10-year high during April, which hasn't worked out very well during the
next six months
04/09/13......Public Opinion towards
unleaded gas is declining rapidly; previously, low levels have been good for the
stock market
04/08/13......Over-The-Counter (OTC)
penny stock volume showed a large jump in speculative trading in March
04/05/13......There has been a surge in
buying climaxes among stocks in the S&P 500
04/05/13......Brief - Large gaps
down in the S&P 500 after a Nonfarm Payroll report
04/04/13......Professional market
advisors and analysts as polled by Consensus Inc have shown bullishness for
three months
04/03/13......The small-cap Russell
2000 index has closed below its 50-day average for the first time in four months
04/02/13......Assets in equity mutual
funds and ETFs are now triple that of assets in money market funds
04/01/13......According to AAII,
individual investors' stock allocation is nearing its lowest level in a year
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to top)
March
03/28/13......The S&P 500 has closed at
a new 10-year high after at least 5 years of not doing so
03/27/13......The S&P has gone 10
consecutive months without more than a -2% monthly loss
03/26/13......Margin debt increased
again, leaving investors' net worth, or available cash, dangerously low
03/25/13......The S&P 500 put in a
negative reversal from a high, while harboring optimistic sentiment
03/22/13......Sentiment towards the US
dollar has become excessively optimistic
03/21/13......Another divergence
between smart money (corporate insiders) and dumb money (Rydex mutual fund
traders)
03/20/13......Options activity
(put/call value ratio and open interest ratio) show sentiment last seen in late
2009
03/19/13......Wall Street strategists
have raised their year-end price targets for the S&P 500
03/18/13......Sentiment towards
transportation stocks is mixed, though Rydex traders are jumping in
03/15/13......The smart money (hedgers
in equity futures) is getting shorter while the dumb money (mutual fund flow) is
getting longer
03/14/13......A combined measure of
newsletter sentiment shows a near-record level of bullishness
03/13/13......The Rydex Nasdaq 100 Bull
/ Bear Ratio soared in the leveraged funds, but fell back in the non-leveraged
ones
03/12/13......Odd Lot Short Sales and
Inverse ETF Volume show surprising apathy towards stocks
03/11/13......Breadth according to the
Up Issues Ratio has been positive for 10 straight days
03/08/13......Stocks and bond yields
have hit 200-day highs together
03/07/13......Pension funds have
decreased their asset allocation to the stock market
03/06/13......A comparison of 17
sentiment indicators to the market peaks in 2000 and 2007 reveals few
similarities
03/05/13......Three of the four major
stock indexes (S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000) closed at a
52-week high
03/04/13......Small options traders are
buying a lot of put protection
03/01/13......Rising margin debt and
declining cash has pushed investors' net worth, or available cash, near historic
lows
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to top)
February
02/28/13......Bulls among individual
investors, according to the AAII sentiment survey, have dropped below 30%
02/27/13......Breadth via the Up Volume
Ratio has been either extremely high or extremely low for six straight days
02/26/13......The S&P 500 hit a
one-month low, then enjoyed a modest intraday reversal
02/25/13......The Up Volume Ratio
dropped below 10% again, the second time breadth has been extreme in three days
02/22/13......Gold sentiment is among
the worst it has been in during its decade-long bull market
02/21/13......The S&P rose more than 2%
during Q4 earnings reports
02/20/13......Breadth according to the
Up Volume Ratio dropped below 10% the day after the S&P 500 made a new high
02/19/13......The CBOE Skew index is
rising into extreme territory as the VIX masks underlying options market concern
02/15/13......Speculators in energy
futures have established a new record long position, possibly troubling for the
XLE fund
02/14/13......Sentiment towards
Treasury bonds has soured significantly, with some evidence of extremes
02/13/13......Over the past 30 days, an
average of 88% of S&P 500 stocks have traded above their 50-day moving averages
02/12/13......Trading activity via
E-Trade's DART showed a jump in January, but is still low
02/11/13......The S&P 500 is setting
new highs, but earnings estimates have been coming down over the past month
02/08/13......The McClellan Summation
Index has rolled over slightly, showing a loss of momentum, despite the S&P 500
at new highs
02/07/13......Fund flows into mutual
funds and ETFs have reached decade-high levels as investors pour money in
02/06/13......Speculative penny stock
volume in the over-the-counter (OTC) market jumped in January, but is still low
02/05/13......According to Hulbert
Financial Digest, investment newsletters are at a new record exposure to stocks
02/04/13......The S&P 500 has closed
below its 10-day average, first time in a month, with a high AIM Model reading
02/01/13......An unweighted model of
advisor and investor sentiment surveys surges to the 3rd-highest level in 25
years
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January
01/31/13......Active investment
managers, according to NAAIM, are now leveraged long for the first time in
history
01/30/13......Traders using margin on
Japanese stock exchanges have been profitable, a worrisome contrary signal
01/29/13......It's the same pattern all
over again - modest price rises, and no new sentiment extremes
01/28/13......An unweighted model of
sentiment surveys shows the highest bullish opinion since 2004
01/25/13......The S&P 500's 15-day
historical volatility has dropped under 6%, one of the lowest levels in history
01/24/13......Individual investors, as
polled by AAII, are showing the most bullishness in two years
01/23/13......Rydex money market assets
have declined, but are not yet quite at an extreme of complacency
01/22/13......The CSFB (CS Fear
Barometer) has climbed above 30%, showing traders are paying up for put
protection
01/18/13......The Nasdaq 100 is more
than 4% below a 52-week high while the S&P 500 hits a new high, forming a
negative divergence
01/17/13......Rydex mutual fund traders
have jumped into the Transportation Fund
01/16/13......The Citigroup Economic
Surprise Index is close to dropping below 0 after being above 50
01/15/13......Sentiment in Apple stock
isn't souring much, despite its 30% decline
01/14/13......Traders
in the Rydex family of mutual funds are still favoring defensive sector funds
01/11/13......Flows into equity
funds hit the highest level in years, but only for one week
01/10/13......New
highs on the NYSE recently spiked to more than 14% of total issues, but have
since formed a negative divergence
01/09/13......The
VIX "fear gauge" had an intraday reversal from a one-year low
01/08/13......Wall
Street strategists have upped their targets for the S&P 500's prospects in 2013
01/07/13......Closed-end equity funds
are trading at a large discount to net asset value
01/04/13......The
S&P 500 has closed above its upper Bollinger Band for 3 straight days
01/04/13......Brief - VIX drops below 14% for the first time in three months
01/03/13......Bond
yields and stocks have both surged to 50-day highs
01/02/13......Up volume on the NYSE
made up 90% of the total on back-to-back days
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to top)