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2015 Report Archive

 

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January

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Bulls Remain Optimistic While Stocks Correct

January 30, 2015

 

According to Investor's Intelligence, newsletter writers are still highly optimistic despite two straight monthly declines from a 12-month high in the S&P 500

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Federal Reserve Gives Economy A "Solid"

January 29, 2015

 

The FOMC policy statement upgraded the US economy to "solid" for the first time since October 2007; we look at "solid" and "weak" mentions in their statements

 

 

Tags:  Fed

   

Heavy Selling During A Bull Market

January 28, 2015

 

Selling interest was heavy on the NYSE, as the Arms Index (TRIN) soared above 3, a rare feat during a bull market

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Breadth

   

Traders Keep Dumping S&P 500 Shares

January 27, 2015

 

Traders in the major S&P 500 exchange-traded funds, SPY, SSO, IVV and VOO, have left, leading to an outflow of more than $20 billion in the past three weeks

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Cash

   

Bond Volatility Trumps Stocks'

January 26, 2015

 

Volatility in the bond market has remained high, despite rising prices there, while stock volatility has declined, prompting an extreme in the MOVE / VIX Ratio

 

 

Tags:  Volatility, Indicators

   

Ag And Soft Contracts Collapse

January 23, 2015

 

Like some other commodities, grains and other soft contracts have collapsed, and the latest "buy" signals have failed to lead to any kind of positive price action

 

 

Tags:  Commodities

   

A Plethora Of 1% Moves

January 22, 2015

 

The S&P 500 fund, SPY, has moved 1% every day for the past three weeks, an unusually persistent stretch of volatility so soon after a 52-week high

 

 

Tags:  Volatility

   

Stock Returns Vs "Fear" Correlation

January 21, 2015

 

Stocks and volatility usually move in opposite directions, but when they travel in the same direction, and stocks are near a high, then it often pays to worry

 

 

Tags:  Volatility, Indicators

   

Rig Count Lags Crude Oil Badly

January 20, 2015

 

The count of active crude oil wells has declined 15% over the past six weeks, but crude oil leads the rig count by months, and suggests oil may be near an inflection point

 

 

Tags:  Commodities

   

Wall Street Analysts Are Downgrading

January 16, 2015

 

Wall Street analysts have been busy downgrading prospects for companies in the S&P 500, both in terms of their earnings estimates and price targets

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Arms Index (TRIN) Shows Persistent Selling Pressure

January 15, 2015

 

A popular measure of market breadth has been showing more selling than buying pressure almost every day since late December

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Breadth

   

Strategists Consider S&P 500 Undervalued

January 14, 2015

 

Wall Street strategists have a consensus price target more than 11% above the S&P 500's current level; stocks have often bottomed when that gets closer to 20%

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Diverging Opinions On The Dollar

January 13, 2015

 

US dollar smart money hedgers are net short at a record degree, at the same time that Rydex fund traders are nearing a record long

 

 

Tags:  Commodities

 

   

Volatility Spikes Are Getting More Common

January 12, 2015

 

Volatility spikes have increased more than during any other stretch of this bull market, similar to 1999 and 2007

 

 

Tags:  Volatility, Indicators

   

Futures Traders Heading For The Exit

January 9, 2015

 

Smart Money hedgers in index futures have moved to an extreme short position

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Everybody (?) Is Bullish

January 8, 2015

 

Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence is both in extremely optimistic territory, second only to late 2003 / early 2004

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

A Cluster Of Despised Omens

January 7, 2015

 

A cluster of Hindenburg Omen signals have triggered, one of the most concentrated in 50 years

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Breadth

   

Failure Is Sometimes An Option

January 6, 2015

 

The Russell 2000 small-cap index has suffered a failed breakout from a 52-week high

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Volatility

   

Mom And Pop Embrace Stocks, Shun Cash

January 5, 2015

 

Individual investors, via the AAII survey, show the widest spread between stock and cash exposure since 2000

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Cash

   

Cash Continues To Be Scarce

January 2, 2015

 

Cash on the sidelines has dwindled, and while it preceded several important stock peaks, its lead time was inconsistent

 

 

Tags:  Cash

 

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