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2015 Report Archive

 

JAN  FEB  MAR  APR  MAY  JUN  JUL  AUG  SEP  OCT  NOV  DEC

 

 

March

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Smart Money Vs The Public In The Options Market

March 3, 2015

 

The OEX Determination Index is showing smart money caution, the opposite of what public option indicators are showing

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Smart Money

   

Speculation Reaches The Options Market

March 2, 2015

 

Traders last week used 30% more bullish than bearish options strategies, pushing the Options Speculation Index to the top 2% of all readings

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

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February

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Speculation Reaches The Options Market

March 2, 2015

 

Traders last week used 30% more bullish than bearish options strategies, pushing the Options Speculation Index to the top 2% of all readings

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Volatility Traders Betting On A (Fear) Rebound

February 27, 2015

 

Traders in volatility ETFs have sent shares outstanding soaring, typically seen before an uptick in volatility and struggling stocks

 

 

Tags:  Volatility, Indicators

   

Not A Good Extreme In Sentiment

February 26, 2015

 

The spread between smart money and dumb money confidence has reached -40%, the worst since last June

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Smart Money

   

Newsletters Are More Optimistic Than Usual

February 25, 2015

 

According to Investor's Intelligence, newsletter writers are nearly 15 percentage points more optimistic than usual with the S&P 500 at a 3-year high

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

A Surge In "Junk" Cash Flow

February 24, 2015

 

High yield "junk" ETFs like HYG, JNK and PHB have seen a big jump in money flowing into the funds over the past month

 

 

Tags:  Bonds

   

Firing On All Cylinders

February 23, 2015

 

All four major stock indexes, the S&P 500, DJIA, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Composite, have broken to new multi-year highs together, confirming heavy buying interest

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Breadth

   

Getting Close To Greed

February 20, 2015

 

The CNN Fear & Greed model, estimated from existing data, shows that investors are close to showing extreme greed

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Nasdaq Stocks Aren't Participating Like The Index

February 19, 2015

 

The Nasdaq Composite has hit a 52-week high every day for the past week, but no more than 5% of its components have also hit a new high

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Breadth

   

Arms Index Suggests Stocks Are Overbought

February 18, 2015

 

The 10-day Arms Index (TRIN) has started to reverse up out of an extremely overbought reading

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Traders Are Feeling Comfortable With Stocks

February 17, 2015

 

Liquidity Premiums for SPY and QQQ show that traders are preferring to trade individual stocks versus the most liquid ETFs

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Stocks Finally Break Out To A New High

February 13, 2015

 

The S&P 500 broke out to a 52-week high after consolidating in a range for the past several months, but watch out for failure

 

 

Tags:  Technicals

   

Companies Keep Lowering Earnings Expectations

February 12, 2015

 

Companies have been guiding analysts to lower their earnings expectations, leading to one of the lowest up / down outlook ratios in 15 years

 

 

Tags:  Fundamentals

   

Utilities Suffer Swift, Sharp Pullback

February 11, 2015

 

Utilities stocks have dropped sharply from a high over the past three weeks, but its track record as a warning sign is mixed

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Volatility

   

Economic Releases Are Surprising To The Downside

February 10, 2015

 

Economic releases, according to the Citi Economic Surprise Index, have been extremely disappointing, while stocks have held strong

 

 

Tags:  Fundamentals

   

What Are Volatility Traders Up To?

February 9, 2015

 

Options traders in the VIX have the lowest open interest in call options in years, while futures traders in the VIX are net long

 

 

Tags:  Volatility

   

High Optimism In High Yield Bonds

February 6, 2015

 

Extreme pessimism in mid-December in high-yield junk bonds HYG, JNK and PHB has reversed to high optimism

 

 

Tags:  Bonds

   

Traders Sour On Financials While Insiders Buy

February 5, 2015

 

Optimism on the most active financial ETF, XLF, has soured to one of the worst levels in a decade while smart money insiders buy aggressively

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Smart Money

   

Crude Oil Volatility Is Increasing, And Look For More

February 4, 2015

 

Crude oil has seen three moves of more than 7% in the past four days, which is likely the beginning of a bottoming process, but it has a ways to go to match previous bottoms

 

 

Tags:  Commodities

   

Earnings Expectations Continue To Sink

February 3, 2015

 

Analysts have continued to bring down estimated earnings for S&P 500 companies, now down more than 5% from the peak, only the sixth time since 1990

 

 

Tags:  Fundamentals

   

What Is Scaring People Right Now?

February 2, 2015

 

Among a variety of potentially scary developments, only interest rates and the dollar are showing a notable impact on the VIX fear gauge

 

 

Tags:  Volatility

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January

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Bulls Remain Optimistic While Stocks Correct

January 30, 2015

 

According to Investor's Intelligence, newsletter writers are still highly optimistic despite two straight monthly declines from a 12-month high in the S&P 500

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Federal Reserve Gives Economy A "Solid"

January 29, 2015

 

The FOMC policy statement upgraded the US economy to "solid" for the first time since October 2007; we look at "solid" and "weak" mentions in their statements

 

 

Tags:  Fed

   

Heavy Selling During A Bull Market

January 28, 2015

 

Selling interest was heavy on the NYSE, as the Arms Index (TRIN) soared above 3, a rare feat during a bull market

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Breadth

   

Traders Keep Dumping S&P 500 Shares

January 27, 2015

 

Traders in the major S&P 500 exchange-traded funds, SPY, SSO, IVV and VOO, have left, leading to an outflow of more than $20 billion in the past three weeks

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Cash

   

Bond Volatility Trumps Stocks'

January 26, 2015

 

Volatility in the bond market has remained high, despite rising prices there, while stock volatility has declined, prompting an extreme in the MOVE / VIX Ratio

 

 

Tags:  Volatility, Indicators

   

Ag And Soft Contracts Collapse

January 23, 2015

 

Like some other commodities, grains and other soft contracts have collapsed, and the latest "buy" signals have failed to lead to any kind of positive price action

 

 

Tags:  Commodities

   

A Plethora Of 1% Moves

January 22, 2015

 

The S&P 500 fund, SPY, has moved 1% every day for the past three weeks, an unusually persistent stretch of volatility so soon after a 52-week high

 

 

Tags:  Volatility

   

Stock Returns Vs "Fear" Correlation

January 21, 2015

 

Stocks and volatility usually move in opposite directions, but when they travel in the same direction, and stocks are near a high, then it often pays to worry

 

 

Tags:  Volatility, Indicators

   

Rig Count Lags Crude Oil Badly

January 20, 2015

 

The count of active crude oil wells has declined 15% over the past six weeks, but crude oil leads the rig count by months, and suggests oil may be near an inflection point

 

 

Tags:  Commodities

   

Wall Street Analysts Are Downgrading

January 16, 2015

 

Wall Street analysts have been busy downgrading prospects for companies in the S&P 500, both in terms of their earnings estimates and price targets

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Arms Index (TRIN) Shows Persistent Selling Pressure

January 15, 2015

 

A popular measure of market breadth has been showing more selling than buying pressure almost every day since late December

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Breadth

   

Strategists Consider S&P 500 Undervalued

January 14, 2015

 

Wall Street strategists have a consensus price target more than 11% above the S&P 500's current level; stocks have often bottomed when that gets closer to 20%

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Diverging Opinions On The Dollar

January 13, 2015

 

US dollar smart money hedgers are net short at a record degree, at the same time that Rydex fund traders are nearing a record long

 

 

Tags:  Commodities

 

   

Volatility Spikes Are Getting More Common

January 12, 2015

 

Volatility spikes have increased more than during any other stretch of this bull market, similar to 1999 and 2007

 

 

Tags:  Volatility, Indicators

   

Futures Traders Heading For The Exit

January 9, 2015

 

Smart Money hedgers in index futures have moved to an extreme short position

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Smart Money

 

   

Everybody (?) Is Bullish

January 8, 2015

 

Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence is both in extremely optimistic territory, second only to late 2003 / early 2004

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

A Cluster Of Despised Omens

January 7, 2015

 

A cluster of Hindenburg Omen signals have triggered, one of the most concentrated in 50 years

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Breadth

   

Failure Is Sometimes An Option

January 6, 2015

 

The Russell 2000 small-cap index has suffered a failed breakout from a 52-week high

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Volatility

   

Mom And Pop Embrace Stocks, Shun Cash

January 5, 2015

 

Individual investors, via the AAII survey, show the widest spread between stock and cash exposure since 2000

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Cash

   

Cash Continues To Be Scarce

January 2, 2015

 

Cash on the sidelines has dwindled, and while it preceded several important stock peaks, its lead time was inconsistent

 

 

Tags:  Cash

 

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