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2015 Report Archive

 

JAN  FEB  MAR  APR  MAY  JUN  JUL  AUG  SEP  OCT  NOV  DEC

 

 

April

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Smart Money Is Betting On Agriculture

April 17, 2015

 

Hedgers in ag futures like sugar, corn, soybeans, cattle, cotton and hogs have established one of their most bullish positions in 16 years

 

Tags:  Commodities

   

Speculative ETF Volume Sinks

April 16, 2015

 

Volume in leveraged and inverse ETFs has shrunk to one of the lowest levels in five years, a sign of a complacent market

 

Tags:  Volatility

   

Dow Theory Divergence

April 15, 2015

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is near a multi-year high, while the Transportation and Utilities Averages are more than -5% below their own highs

 

Tags:  Technicals, Breadth

   

ETF Options Traders Paying Up For Protection

April 14, 2015

 

Traders in SPY, QQQ, IWM and DIA options are paying up for put protection as the bull market ages, similar to 2007

 

Tags:  Options

   

Wall Street Analysts Reduce Earnings Expectations

April 13, 2015

 

Analysts have reduced expectations on many more companies than they've raised them on, leading to one of the largest differences in five years

 

Tags:  Fundamentals

   

VIX Traders Betting On A Jump

April 10, 2015

 

Volatility traders are betting heavily on an increase in volatility, as VIX Sentiment moves to an extreme last seen several months ago

 

Tags:  Options, Volatility

   

Penny Stock Traders Remain Subdued

April 9, 2015

 

In the OTC market, penny stock traders are not showing any speculative fervor, with low volume relative to the Nasdaq Composite

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Trend Persistence Nears Record

April 8, 2015

 

As pointed out by James Paulsen from Wells Capital, the S&P 500's trend has approached all-time record highs

 

Tags:  Technicals

   

Crude Volatility Nears Previous Bottoms

April 7, 2015

 

Swings in crude oil over the past four weeks, after a sustained decline, have matched other long-term price lows

 

Tags:  Commodities

   

Confidence Spread Is Narrowing

April 6, 2015

 

The spread between Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence is narrowing; options traders much prefer calls to puts

 

Tags:  Options, Smart Money

   

Rydex Traders Like Banking; Options Traders Bet Against S&P Indexes

April 2, 2015

 

Traders in the Rydex family of mutual funds have jumped into banking and financial services; options traders on the S&P 500 and S&P 100 are holding 200 puts for every 100 calls

 

Tags:  Options, Stocks And Sectors

   

Mom And Pop Love Stocks, Hate Cash; Bond Traders Avoid Put Options

April 1, 2015

 

According to AAII, investor stock exposure is highest since 2007, cash lowest since 2000; bond option put/call ratio is near the lowest in three years

 

Tags:  Cash, Bonds, Options

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March

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Gold Bugs Drop Below Average; Sugar Sentiment Sours

March 31, 2015

 

No members of the HUI Gold Bugs Index are trading above their moving averages; sugar sentiment nears an all-time low

 

Tags:  Commodities, Stocks And Sectors

   

Buying Power Dries Up; Equity Assets Soar Above Cash Assets

March 30, 2015

 

Margin debt increased, cash decreased, so Available Cash nears lowest levels ever; equity mutual fund assets hit new record against money market assets

 

Tags:  Cash

   

Selling Pressure Eases; Hedgers Increase Energy, Euro Positions

March 27, 2015

 

Down Pressure on the S&P has eased, traditionally a positive short-term sign; in energy contracts and the euro, hedgers have improved their positions

 

Tags:  Indicators, Commodities

   

Bond Traders Show Extreme Optimism

March 26, 2015

 

The Optimism Index for bonds jumped to one of its highest levels of the past decade

 

Tags:  Bonds

   

Nasdaq Suffers Large Loss; Biotech Deteriorates

March 25, 2015

 

The Nasdaq Composite suffered its worst loss in more than 200 days, while IBB breadth deteriorated at the quickest pace in history

 

Tags:  Technicals, Volatility, Breadth, Stocks And Sectors

   

Nasdaq 100 Optimism Increases, Same With Precious Metals

March 24, 2015

 

Optimism on QQQ has gone into optimistic territory; in gold, silver and natural gas, optimism is climbing out of extremely pessimistic conditions

 

Tags:  Indicators, Commodities

   

Volatility Traders Bet On Increase; Stocks Wobble

March 23, 2015

 

Traders in the VXX fund are bullish, expecting a rise in volatility; when SPY nears a record on low volume, it has led to a pullback every time in the past two years

 

Tags:  Volatility, Technicals

   

Biotech Reversal, Volatility Traders Get Negative

March 20, 2015

 

After an extreme in biotechnology fund (IBB) breadth, it suffers a negative reversal; VIX term structure turns negative; gold hedgers reach extreme

 

Tags:  Indicators, Volatility, Commodities, Stocks And Sectors

   

Individual Investors Decrease Bullishness

March 19, 2015

 

According to AAII, investor optimism has dropped, but not to previous extremes, and the CSFB index shows options traders are paying up for put protection

 

Tags:  Indicators, Volatility

   

Small Caps Again Try To Lead On FOMC Decision

March 18, 2015

 

Small cap Russell 2000 index has closed at a 52-week high on a day the Federal Reserve announced its intention on interest rates

 

Tags:  Technicals, Breadth, Fed

   

Small Caps Trying To Lead A Breakout

March 17, 2015

 

Small cap Russell 2000 index has (almost) closed at a 52-week high while the S&P 500 is 2% below its high, a divergence

 

Tags:  Technicals, Breadth

   

Volatility Is High Despite Near-Record Prices

March 16, 2015

 

The S&P 500 endured another 1% daily move, its 20th in the past three months, despite being within 2% off a multi-year high

 

 

Tags:  Volatility

   

And The Surveys Show...More Caution

March 13, 2015

 

The AIM Model, incorporating a number of different sentiment surveys, shows a big drop over the past week

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Traders Have Changed Their Tune On High Yield

March 12, 2015

 

High-yield junk bond funds HYG, JNK and PHB have seen near-record outflows over the past two weeks

 

 

Tags:  Bonds

   

Gold Stocks Completing "Puke" Phase

March 11, 2015

 

The XAU Gold And Silver Index has lost more than -1% on six out of seven days, a sign of exhaustive selling pressure in XAU, HUI, GDX and other gold-related indexes

 

 

Tags:  Commodities, Stocks And Sectors

   

Multiple Big Down Days From A High

March 10, 2015

 

The S&P 500 suffered two 1.25% declines in the past three sessions, after recently setting a 52-week high

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Volatility

   

A Curiously Quick Jump In New Lows

March 9, 2015

 

On the NYSE, securities hitting 52-week lows exceeded those hitting 52-week highs, despite the S&P 500 being within 2.5% of a new high

 

 

Tags:  Breadth

   

Cash Is Not In Demand

March 6, 2015

 

According to 7 different cash-based indicators, investor holdings of cash is among the lowest levels in a decade, a confluence rarely seen

 

 

Tags:  Cash

   

Tech Insiders Sell While Their Companies Buy

March 5, 2015

 

Corporate insiders in technology companies are selling heavily while company buybacks are on pace for record highs

 

 

Tags:  Smart Money

   

Stock Shares Outstanding Dump While Volatility Shares Jump

March 4, 2015

 

Shares outstanding in SPY have declined over the past three months, while shares in volatility ETFs like VXX, UVXY and TVIX have continued to rise

 

 

Tags:  Volatility, Indicators

   

Smart Money Vs The Public In The Options Market

March 3, 2015

 

The OEX Determination Index is showing smart money caution, the opposite of what public option indicators are showing

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Smart Money, Options

   

Speculation Reaches The Options Market

March 2, 2015

 

Traders last week used 30% more bullish than bearish options strategies, pushing the Options Speculation Index to the top 2% of all readings

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Options

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February

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Volatility Traders Betting On A (Fear) Rebound

February 27, 2015

 

Traders in volatility ETFs have sent shares outstanding soaring, typically seen before an uptick in volatility and struggling stocks

 

 

Tags:  Volatility, Indicators

   

Not A Good Extreme In Sentiment

February 26, 2015

 

The spread between smart money and dumb money confidence has reached -40%, the worst since last June

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Smart Money

   

Newsletters Are More Optimistic Than Usual

February 25, 2015

 

According to Investor's Intelligence, newsletter writers are nearly 15 percentage points more optimistic than usual with the S&P 500 at a 3-year high

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

A Surge In "Junk" Cash Flow

February 24, 2015

 

High yield "junk" ETFs like HYG, JNK and PHB have seen a big jump in money flowing into the funds over the past month

 

 

Tags:  Bonds, Stocks And Sectors

   

Firing On All Cylinders

February 23, 2015

 

All four major stock indexes, the S&P 500, DJIA, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Composite, have broken to new multi-year highs together, confirming heavy buying interest

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Breadth

   

Getting Close To Greed

February 20, 2015

 

The CNN Fear & Greed model, estimated from existing data, shows that investors are close to showing extreme greed

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Nasdaq Stocks Aren't Participating Like The Index

February 19, 2015

 

The Nasdaq Composite has hit a 52-week high every day for the past week, but no more than 5% of its components have also hit a new high

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Breadth

   

Arms Index Suggests Stocks Are Overbought

February 18, 2015

 

The 10-day Arms Index (TRIN) has started to reverse up out of an extremely overbought reading

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Traders Are Feeling Comfortable With Stocks

February 17, 2015

 

Liquidity Premiums for SPY and QQQ show that traders are preferring to trade individual stocks versus the most liquid ETFs

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Stocks Finally Break Out To A New High

February 13, 2015

 

The S&P 500 broke out to a 52-week high after consolidating in a range for the past several months, but watch out for failure

 

 

Tags:  Technicals

   

Companies Keep Lowering Earnings Expectations

February 12, 2015

 

Companies have been guiding analysts to lower their earnings expectations, leading to one of the lowest up / down outlook ratios in 15 years

 

 

Tags:  Fundamentals

   

Utilities Suffer Swift, Sharp Pullback

February 11, 2015

 

Utilities stocks have dropped sharply from a high over the past three weeks, but its track record as a warning sign is mixed

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Volatility, Stocks And Sectors

   

Economic Releases Are Surprising To The Downside

February 10, 2015

 

Economic releases, according to the Citi Economic Surprise Index, have been extremely disappointing, while stocks have held strong

 

 

Tags:  Fundamentals

   

What Are Volatility Traders Up To?

February 9, 2015

 

Options traders in the VIX have the lowest open interest in call options in years, while futures traders in the VIX are net long

 

 

Tags:  Volatility

   

High Optimism In High Yield Bonds

February 6, 2015

 

Extreme pessimism in mid-December in high-yield junk bonds HYG, JNK and PHB has reversed to high optimism

 

 

Tags:  Bonds

   

Traders Sour On Financials While Insiders Buy

February 5, 2015

 

Optimism on the most active financial ETF, XLF, has soured to one of the worst levels in a decade while smart money insiders buy aggressively

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Smart Money, Stocks And Sectors

   

Crude Oil Volatility Is Increasing, And Look For More

February 4, 2015

 

Crude oil has seen three moves of more than 7% in the past four days, which is likely the beginning of a bottoming process, but it has a ways to go to match previous bottoms

 

 

Tags:  Commodities

   

Earnings Expectations Continue To Sink

February 3, 2015

 

Analysts have continued to bring down estimated earnings for S&P 500 companies, now down more than 5% from the peak, only the sixth time since 1990

 

 

Tags:  Fundamentals

   

What Is Scaring People Right Now?

February 2, 2015

 

Among a variety of potentially scary developments, only interest rates and the dollar are showing a notable impact on the VIX fear gauge

 

 

Tags:  Volatility

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January

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Bulls Remain Optimistic While Stocks Correct

January 30, 2015

 

According to Investor's Intelligence, newsletter writers are still highly optimistic despite two straight monthly declines from a 12-month high in the S&P 500

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Federal Reserve Gives Economy A "Solid"

January 29, 2015

 

The FOMC policy statement upgraded the US economy to "solid" for the first time since October 2007; we look at "solid" and "weak" mentions in their statements

 

 

Tags:  Fed

   

Heavy Selling During A Bull Market

January 28, 2015

 

Selling interest was heavy on the NYSE, as the Arms Index (TRIN) soared above 3, a rare feat during a bull market

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Breadth

   

Traders Keep Dumping S&P 500 Shares

January 27, 2015

 

Traders in the major S&P 500 exchange-traded funds, SPY, SSO, IVV and VOO, have left, leading to an outflow of more than $20 billion in the past three weeks

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Cash

   

Bond Volatility Trumps Stocks'

January 26, 2015

 

Volatility in the bond market has remained high, despite rising prices there, while stock volatility has declined, prompting an extreme in the MOVE / VIX Ratio

 

 

Tags:  Volatility, Indicators

   

Ag And Soft Contracts Collapse

January 23, 2015

 

Like some other commodities, grains and other soft contracts have collapsed, and the latest "buy" signals have failed to lead to any kind of positive price action

 

 

Tags:  Commodities

   

A Plethora Of 1% Moves

January 22, 2015

 

The S&P 500 fund, SPY, has moved 1% every day for the past three weeks, an unusually persistent stretch of volatility so soon after a 52-week high

 

 

Tags:  Volatility

   

Stock Returns Vs "Fear" Correlation

January 21, 2015

 

Stocks and volatility usually move in opposite directions, but when they travel in the same direction, and stocks are near a high, then it often pays to worry

 

 

Tags:  Volatility, Indicators

   

Rig Count Lags Crude Oil Badly

January 20, 2015

 

The count of active crude oil wells has declined 15% over the past six weeks, but crude oil leads the rig count by months, and suggests oil may be near an inflection point

 

 

Tags:  Commodities

   

Wall Street Analysts Are Downgrading

January 16, 2015

 

Wall Street analysts have been busy downgrading prospects for companies in the S&P 500, both in terms of their earnings estimates and price targets

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Arms Index (TRIN) Shows Persistent Selling Pressure

January 15, 2015

 

A popular measure of market breadth has been showing more selling than buying pressure almost every day since late December

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Breadth

   

Strategists Consider S&P 500 Undervalued

January 14, 2015

 

Wall Street strategists have a consensus price target more than 11% above the S&P 500's current level; stocks have often bottomed when that gets closer to 20%

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

Diverging Opinions On The Dollar

January 13, 2015

 

US dollar smart money hedgers are net short at a record degree, at the same time that Rydex fund traders are nearing a record long

 

 

Tags:  Commodities

 

   

Volatility Spikes Are Getting More Common

January 12, 2015

 

Volatility spikes have increased more than during any other stretch of this bull market, similar to 1999 and 2007

 

 

Tags:  Volatility, Indicators

   

Futures Traders Heading For The Exit

January 9, 2015

 

Smart Money hedgers in index futures have moved to an extreme short position

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Smart Money

 

   

Everybody (?) Is Bullish

January 8, 2015

 

Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence is both in extremely optimistic territory, second only to late 2003 / early 2004

 

 

Tags:  Indicators

   

A Cluster Of Despised Omens

January 7, 2015

 

A cluster of Hindenburg Omen signals have triggered, one of the most concentrated in 50 years

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Breadth

   

Failure Is Sometimes An Option

January 6, 2015

 

The Russell 2000 small-cap index has suffered a failed breakout from a 52-week high

 

 

Tags:  Technicals, Volatility

   

Mom And Pop Embrace Stocks, Shun Cash

January 5, 2015

 

Individual investors, via the AAII survey, show the widest spread between stock and cash exposure since 2000

 

 

Tags:  Indicators, Cash

   

Cash Continues To Be Scarce

January 2, 2015

 

Cash on the sidelines has dwindled, and while it preceded several important stock peaks, its lead time was inconsistent

 

 

Tags:  Cash

 

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