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2014 Report Archive

 

JAN  FEB  MAR  APR  MAY  JUN  JUL  AUG  SEP  OCT  NOV  DEC

 

 

October

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10/23/14......Individual investors in the AAII survey are showing among the highest-ever level of optimism a week after a six-month low in the S&P 500

 

10/22/14......We take a look at the S&P 500's recovery from last week's panic and compare it to failed rallies, tests and v-shaped bottoms

 

10/21/14......Stocks enjoyed a kick-off day with the S&P showing its largest gain in a year, after hitting a six-month low in the past week

 

10/20/14......The S&P 500 is testing its 200-day moving average after spending a week below it, following more than six months above

 

10/17/14......There were 50 selling climaxes among S&P 500 stocks this week as they set new 52-week lows but closed positively

 

10/16/14......More than 50% of 85 indicators now match or exceed the extremes they've seen at 26 other low over the past 20 years

 

10/15/14......The S&P 500 has erased 50% of its gains from the past year, after closing at a 52-week within the past month

 

10/14/14......Crude oil sentiment has soured as it suffers its largest loss in a year, and its lowest close in a year; XLE breadth is oversold as well

 

10/13/14......Fear has become more expensive, versus June when it was near-record cheap, but is not yet extreme according to the SKEW/VIX Ratio

 

10/10/14......The VIX "fear gauge" has doubled from its low over the past six months, the first time since August 2011

 

10/09/14......The Stock/Bond Ratio has averaged -2 over the past week, rarely achieved when the S&P 500 is above its 200-day average

 

10/08/14......The past 10 days have accounted for 50% of the past six months' worth of 1% moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average

 

10/07/14......The small cap Russell 2000 hit a 200-day low after the S&P 500 just hit a 200-day high, which preceded selling in 1990 and 1998

 

10/06/14......Wall Street analysts have become extremely pessimistic on S&P 500 companies' price targets and earnings power

 

10/03/14......Closed-end funds focused on high-yield junk bonds have dove to a nearly five-year extreme discount to net asset value

 

10/02/14......Corporate insiders have picked up their buying activity, leading to a Buy Inflection from InsiderScore.com

 

10/01/14......The Russell 2000 has finally suffered a correction, which has typically led to further selling pressure before a low took hold

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September

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09/30/14......The Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached a 12-quarter high without anything larger than a -3% quarterly loss

 

09/29/14......US dollar optimism has hit a 15-year high, amid a 40-year record of 11 straight positive weeks

 

09/26/14......The S&P 500 sprung a bear trap by violating its 50-day average then immediately jumping back above

 

09/25/14......Negative divergences with new highs have accumulated, with more than 40 days over the past two years, third highest in 50 years

 

09/24/14......A sell off in high yield junk bonds was a warning sign in 2000 and 2007, but has been inconsistent otherwise

 

09/23/14......Pension funds haven't increased their holdings of stock much, but they have more than made up for it by buying mutual funds

 

09/22/14......Hedge funds have lagged the S&P 500 this year, which has normally led to positive fourth-quarter performance

 

09/19/14......The Dow Jones Industrials closed at a 52-week high, while the NYSE Up Issues Ratio showed horrible breadth with a 40% reading

 

09/18/14......Growth in assets in long-only S&P 500 ETFs and mutual funds has greatly eclipsed the growth in short-only funds, to a record degree

 

09/17/14......Both the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports have broken out to new highs; Industrials actually perform better if Transports lag a bit

 

09/16/14......A looming "death cross" in the small cap Russell 2000 index has been an inconsistent signal in the past

 

09/15/14......Short-sellers have given up on the inverse VIX fund, XIV, and that has usually been positive for stocks

 

09/12/14......Financial conditions are so calm that Federal Reserve Stress Indexes meander near all-time lows

 

09/11/14......Assets in inverse ETFs have sunk to a nearly all-time low as a percentage of total equity ETF assets

 

09/10/14......There were more new 52-week lows than 52-week highs on the NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges, despite the S&P 500 being near a high

 

09/09/14......The largest IPOs in history have been a drag on their industry over the ensuing months, a flag for internets given Alibaba

 

09/08/14......The latest Barron's cover showed a bull and "clear sailing" ahead, but a look at its covers has not shown a contrarian tendency

 

09/05/14......Fewer than 5.5% of S&P 500 components hit a 52-week high, despite the S&P itself closing at a new high

 

09/04/14......Stocks went from trading at a new high to erasing the past 7 days worth of gains

 

09/03/14......Crude oil enjoyed its best gain in a year the day after suffering its worst loss in a year

 

09/02/14......The S&P 500 is close to recording only four moves of +/- 1% over the past 100 days

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August

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08/29/14......Commercial hedgers in the Japanese yen are holding a near-record long position, which has led to weakness in the Nikkei 225

 

08/28/14......IPOs over the past year have tilted toward money-losing companies, with a differential of more than -100, the most since 2000       

 

08/27/14......Optimism on the Canadian dollar is near its lowest in more than 20 years, as the dollar has its biggest jump in nearly a year                 

 

08/26/14......Stocks are hitting new highs on below-average volume, which has led to modestly below-average returns

 

08/25/14......Investors' available cash (or net worth) declined to a nearly 30-year low in July

 

08/22/14......VIX options traders appear to be betting on a rise in fear according to several measures

 

08/21/14......Fewer than 10% of S&P 500 components closed at a 52-week high along with the index, the eighth time in six months

 

08/20/14......There has been a breadth thrust in the NYSE Up Issues Ratio over the past two weeks, with the S&P 500 at a 52-week high

 

08/19/14......Stocks have enjoyed six v-shaped bottoms in the past two years, the most over that time span since 1936

 

08/18/14......Penny stock traders left the market in July, sending transaction volume to its lowest level since the 2008 bear market

 

08/15/14......Suggestions that Warren Buffett has "lost his touch" have reached the mainstream media, but it is not a consistent theme

 

08/14/14......Stocks have put in a reflex rally from a bull market correction, which has had a low likelihood of an immediate reversal

 

08/13/14......Wall Street analysts have reduced price targets on more stocks than those on which they've raised targets

 

08/12/14......The value of announced mergers at premium prices and valuations is at record or near-record levels

 

08/11/14......Stocks have struggled this earnings season despite good earnings growth in the S&P 500

 

08/08/14......Limited commentary - price surge pulls indicators out of short-term extremes

 

08/07/14......Limited commentary - poor price action and few pessimistic extremes

 

08/06/14......Limited commentary - more lessening of intermediate-term extremes

 

08/05/14......Limited commentary - re-test of lows does not trigger pessimistic extremes

 

08/04/14......Limited commentary - rebound from short-term oversold conditions

 

08/01/14......Late-week selling led to a "shock week" with the largest weekly loss in a year after being near a 52-week high

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July

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07/31/14......Stocks experienced a mini "shock day" by hitting a 30-day low within a week of closing at a multi-year high

 

07/30/14......After the S&P 500 hit a 52-week high a week ago, breadth via the NYSE Up Issues Ratio has been negative every day

 

07/29/14......Volatility has become so muted that the 10-day width of Bollinger Bands on the S&P 500 is in the bottom 1% of days since 1928

 

07/28/14......The S&P 500 has out-performed the NYSE advance/decline line by 10% over the past year, a negative (but not bad) divergence

 

07/25/14......Options traders in the S&P 500 and S&P 100 have open interest in put options relative to call options of more than 2-to-1

 

07/24/14......More individual investors (via AAII) expect stocks to decline than rise despite a 52-week high in the S&P 500

 

07/23/14......Fewer than half of stocks in the S&P 500 are hitting new 52-week highs than were doing so in early June, a sharp negative divergence 

 

07/22/14......Smart money commercial hedgers in the grains (corn, soybeans, wheat) are near a record net long position

 

07/21/14......High yield bonds have started to falter, while stocks are hitting new highs, a negative divergence that hasn't been very negative

 

07/18/14......Commercial hedgers in the Euro have established a huge long position, but other sentiment data is not confirming an extreme

 

07/17/14......The S&P 500 ended its streak of 50 days without a 1% daily move with a down day, a bad sign in the past

 

07/16/14......The McClellan Oscillator is diverging negatively with the S&P, one of the worst in history, but it has not been a consistent signal

 

07/15/14......Federal Reserve Chairwoman Yellen had her "Greenspan" moment today in reference to market valuations

 

07/14/14......Optimism toward the Canada fund (EWC) has reached one of its highest levels in nearly a decade

 

07/11/14......Wall Street analysts are increasing the number of companies their raising price targets on versus those they're lowering

 

07/10/14......A record amount of IPOs have been backed by private equity and venture capital firms, which are selling or exiting completely

 

07/09/14......Short interest as a percentage of total U.S. stock market value is the lowest since 2006, but high dating back further

 

07/08/14......The VXO volatility index has jumped 10% on consecutive days, coming off of a 52-week low

 

07/07/14......Stocks have been hitting 52-week highs right before 2nd quarter earnings season, which has caused some troubles

 

07/03/14......The S&P 500 closed at a 52-week high ahead of Independence Day, its 11th pre-holiday new high of the bull market

 

07/02/14......The NYSE Up Issues Ratio was only 38%, among the worst-ever breadth on a day the S&P 500 hit a 52-week high

 

07/01/14......The carry trade is becoming more popular, and has over-performed Libor, but has recently started weakening

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June

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06/30/14......Stocks have risen for six straight quarters, with a 5-year high, the 11th time they've shown such momentum

 

06/27/14......The VIX is overpriced according to historical, realized volatility but it should still rise; hedgers are long grains (corn, soybeans, wheat)

 

06/26/14......Volume has dried up in inverse and leveraged long ETFs, even as a percentage of total volume

 

06/25/14......Rydex mutual fund traders bought the dip on Tuesday, pushing the Bull/Bear Ratio near an all-time high

 

06/24/14......Stocks suffered a key reversal day, as the S&P 500 reached a 52-week high, then closed below three prior lows

 

06/23/14......The two-day range in the S&P 500 is one of the lowest in history, compared to its average

 

06/20/14......Traders on the S&P 500 are holding 200 put options in open interest for every 100 call options

 

06/19/14......Over the past month, the Closing Price Oscillator has averaged one of its most extreme readings in 30 years

 

06/18/14......A ratio of the SKEW to VIX shows that the value of a "black swan" event (swift, sharp correction) is the 3rd-cheapest since 1990

 

06/17/14......Two months without a 1% move, and a 4% rally in the meantime; wheat public opinion nears all-time low

 

06/16/14......The spread between Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence is at its 3rd-worst in two years

 

06/13/14......Emerging market sentiment has not eclipsed previous optimistic extremes, but it has been high for two months

 

06/12/14......Crude oil and the Dow Jones Transportation Index have rallied to nine-month highs in quick succession

 

06/11/14......The S&P 500 is close to meeting Wall Street strategists' year-end estimates after 23 weeks of being "undervalued"

 

06/10/14......The S&P 500 has gone 37 days without a 1% daily move, the 2nd-longest low-volatility streak in 15 years

 

06/09/14......Short interest in the S&P 500 fund, SPY, is at 29% of shares outstanding, well below prior extremes

 

06/06/14......Penny stock volume fell in May, and is more than 75% below the level of three months ago

 

06/05/14......Three new low-volatility funds are being introduced, but past low-vol fund inceptions haven't led to higher volatility; silver poised to rally

 

06/04/14......The S&P 500 has closed near the top of its intraday range for the past two weeks, moving a Price Oscillator to near a record high

 

06/03/14......Assets in equity mutual funds and ETFs have eclipsed safe money market assets by a ratio of 4-to-1

 

06/02/14......The S&P 500 has elevated above its 30-day Bollinger Band for the past 5 days

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May

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05/30/14......Rydex mutual fund traders are switching non-leveraged funds for leveraged ones; 5-Year Treasury Note speculators cover some shorts

 

05/29/14......Volatility in stocks, bonds, currencies, oil and gold has collapsed at the same time Risk Appetite reaches an extreme high

 

05/28/14......Stocks and bonds are hitting 200-day highs at the same time, which begs the question about which is the "smart money"

 

05/27/14......Among the four major equity indexes, the S&P 500 is the only one trading at new 52-week highs, another divergence

 

05/23/14......The S&P 500 closed at a 52-week high along with only 23 component stocks, and low pre-holiday volume

 

05/22/14......Economic reports have been better than expected, and the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has moved into positive territory

 

05/21/14......The VIX fear gauge has been below 15 for a month, and is well below its 50- and 200-day moving averages

 

05/20/14......Leveraged loan ETFs have experienced one of their sharpest outflows in three years

 

05/19/14......Fear is cheaper than it's been in 8 years, as implied volatility on the VIX has fallen below previous lows

 

05/16/14......Emerging market sentiment is optimistic, and has been for the past month, nearing other extremes in the past four years

 

05/15/14......Risk Appetite recently recorded one of its highest readings in 16 years as volatility ebbed and credit spreads tightened

 

05/14/14......A risk gauge created by asset manager BlackRock has hit its highest level of the bull market

 

05/13/14......The S&P has been persistently under-valued according to Wall Street strategists; gasoline sentiment has declined

 

05/12/14......The Russell 2000 and Nasdaq are 5% below their 52-week highs despite the new high in the S&P 500, another divergence

 

05/09/14......The S&P 500 has been stuck in a 1.5% range, while sitting near a 52-week high

 

05/08/14......The ratio of the Russell 2000 to the S&P 500 has fallen to a one-year low, while the S&P is near a high

 

05/07/14......Assets in the Rydex Technology fund have plummeted by 50% in the past 30 days

 

05/06/14......Penny stock volume plummeted in April, with the largest one-month drop in transactions in history; US dollar sentiment declines

 

05/05/14......Options traders have built a large call open interest in the VIX, usually resulting in a spike in volatility

 

05/02/14......When the Nonfarm Payroll report is better than expected, stocks have tended to struggle

 

05/01/14......Margin debt contracted in March, but needs to keep contracting in order to become market-negative

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April

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04/30/14......The large-cap DJIA reached a 52-week high, but the small-cap Russell 2000 is more than 6% below its own high, a negative divergence

 

04/29/14......Mergers are increasingly stock versus cash, and nearly all are at a high valuation; British pound sentiment is nearing a 24-year high

 

04/28/14......The Barron's Big Money Poll shows a continued level of near-record optimism among money managers

 

04/25/14......Utilities sector sentiment nears a decade-long optimistic extreme; gasoline hedgers establish near-record short positions

 

04/24/14......Mom and pop have returned, as Daily Average Revenue Trades (DARTs) have soared relative to total market volume

 

04/23/14......Bubble mentions in the news have dropped off dramatically, contrary to what many think

 

04/22/14......Stocks have shown a burst of momentum, with consecutive gains from a one-month low; gold sentiment sours a bit

 

04/21/14......Hedgers in equity index futures have covered a large number of short positions in the past six weeks

 

04/17/14......The Nasdaq Composite has neared its first 10% correction in more than a year, with still-optimistic sentiment

 

04/16/14......The percentage of IPOs announced over the past three months that are losing money is very near a 25-year record

 

04/15/14......Seasonal weakness will arrive in early May, but the worst of it is fairly short-lived and it becomes exceptionally positive this fall

 

04/14/14......The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks is close to closing below its 200-day average for the first time in years

 

04/11/14......Biotechnology stocks have not been able to rally from extreme pessimism, and have now violated their 200-day average

 

04/10/14......The S&P 500 has suffered 3 declines of more than -1% in the past 7 days, while setting a new 52-week high as well

 

04/09/14......With tax day looming, stocks have usually dropped after big up years, and even more so in the six months following

 

04/08/14......Shares outstanding in short-term VIX funds have jumped in the past two weeks

 

04/07/14......Penny stock transactions jumped higher in March, the highest recorded since October 2007

 

04/04/14......The Nasdaq Composite has closed below its 100-day average for the first time in more than 300 days

 

04/03/14......The S&P 500 is near a high, with Utilities up 2% in the past month, and despite the Nasdaq, down 2% in a negative divergence

 

04/02/14......Fewer than 8% of S&P 500 components closed at a 52-week high along with the index itself

 

04/01/14......Emerging market sentiment rebounds; Canadian dollar pessimism leads to a bear trap

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March

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03/31/14......Growth in the ratio of debt-to-cash in investors' accounts highlights the danger of high margin debt

 

03/28/14......Biotechnology sentiment is pessimistic, and returns should give a heads-up about a bubble; 5-Year Treasury Note sentiment is extreme

 

03/27/14......The Nasdaq 100 has dropped below its 50-day average while the S&P has not, and both are well above their 200-days

 

03/26/14......Covenant-lite loan issuance has exploded during the past month, exceeding anything we've seen in 15 years

 

03/25/14......Cash sitting in "mom and pop" money market funds has dipped to a 30-year low relative to stocks; coffee sentiment backs off extreme

 

03/24/14......Nasdaq vs NYSE exchange volume shows prolonged speculative activity

 

03/21/14......Gold has enjoyed a "golden cross" as its 50-day average rises above the 200-day; copper's smart money looks bullish

 

03/20/14......Worse-than-expected economic data, as shown by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, has not put a dent in stocks' rise

 

03/19/14......Sentiment toward Mexican stocks is not as pessimistic as positions in peso futures would suggest

 

03/18/14......We look at the 20 largest non-U.S. companies to list on a U.S. exchange; U.S. dollar sentiment nears a four-year extreme

 

03/17/14......A large share of recent IPOs have been backed by Private Equity and Venture Capital firms

 

03/14/14......Rydex mutual fund traders bought the dip on Thursday, adding long exposure in a down market; gold sentiment nears two-year high

 

03/13/14......Biotechnology firms have been a popular target for IPOs, many of which have been money-losers

 

03/12/14......Assets in inverse funds have plummeted since 2010, and now make up less than 1% of total broad-based ETF assets

 

03/11/14......The value of trading in penny stocks jumped higher on Tuesday due to Fannie and Freddie; coffee sentiment and rate of change

 

03/10/14......Sentiment toward Chinese stocks has not reached the types of extremes seen at other lows in the past five years

 

03/07/14......Nearly 75% of IPOs during the past six months have been money-losers; commodity speculators reach record exposure

 

03/06/14......Penny stock (OTC) trading volume exploded higher in February

 

03/05/14......Traders in the ProShares biotechnology ETFs are showing short-term pessimism as assets flow into the inverse fund

 

03/04/14......The Russell 2000 led a "triple index breakout" with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite; high long-term optimism on British pound

 

03/03/14......Leveraged loan issuance has gone parabolic, as investors give money to the most speculative issues

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February

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02/28/14......Health care stocks gather interest from traders in the ProShares and Rydex funds; COW trouble as speculators jump in

 

02/27/14......Few bears are present among respondents in the AAII and Investor's Intelligence sentiment surveys

 

02/26/14......Small-cap stocks have enjoyed great momentum, with 12 up days out of 14 sessions, and a new 52-week high

 

02/25/14......The Smart Money Index shows early buying and late selling pressure; hog sentiment a warning for COW; coffee sentiment soars

 

02/24/14......The S&P 500 has reversed to a 52-week high within 3 weeks of closing at a 3-month low

 

02/21/14......Investors have returned to E-Trade, with DARTs surging in January; gold and silver sentiment has jumped

 

02/20/14......Traders in penny stocks have been ramping up their speculative activity over the past two weeks

 

02/19/14......Stocks have registered a breadth thrust, as the 10-day Up Issues Ratio has gone from oversold to overbought within two weeks

 

02/18/14......The Nasdaq Composite has climbed 8 days with a 5% gain to a new high, good momentum; gold crosses above 200-day; wheat recovers

 

02/14/14......Gauging the probability of the last two weeks' momentum to continue as the S&P rallies off of an intermediate-term bull market low

 

02/13/14......All but one member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed above its 10-day average, but most haven't eclipsed the 50-day

 

02/12/14......The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the first of four major indexes to peak, while the Nasdaq has held strong

 

02/11/14......Nearly 90% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 10-day average, but fewer than 55% are above their 50-day average

 

02/10/14......Options traders on the VIX have ramped up their put trading, betting on a decline in volatility

 

02/07/14......The S&P 500 put in its best 2-day performance in 3 months, after diving to a 3-month low a few days ago

 

02/06/14......Liquidity in the SPY and QQQ funds have become an attractive feature for investors over the past two weeks

 

02/05/14......Volume in speculative penny stocks skyrocketed in January, normally a warning sign, but much of it was due to one stock

 

02/04/14......Wall Street strategists haven't yet adjusted their year-end consensus price target for the S&P 500, sending it into undervalued territory

 

02/03/14......The S&P has finally suffered a 5% pullback from a multi-year high, and erased three months of gains, all in a short time span

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January

 

01/31/14......Sponsors of inverse ETFs have been on a spree of reverse splits, a ploy to raise share prices

 

01/30/14......Risk Appetite has collapsed over the past two weeks as risk-on switched to risk-off among investors

 

01/29/14......Traders didn't take kindly to the Federal Reserve statement on interest rates, sending the S&P 500 to a 1% loss

 

01/28/14......Fund flows in Indian shares show a clear divergence between institutional versus mom and pop investors

 

01/27/14......Emerging market sentiment has soured, but is still well above pessimistic extremes seen during past years

 

01/24/14......The Dow Jones Transportation Average suffered a 4% decline from a 52-week high, a mark of major peaks in the past

 

01/23/14......Stocks have suffered 10 price rejections from a high over the past year, the most in history

 

01/22/14......According to the Federal Reserve, stresses on the financial system are the lowest in at least 40 years

 

01/21/14......The biotech sector has been outperforming and sentiment is understandably optimistic

 

01/17/14......Buying climaxes in the S&P 500 have surged again

 

01/16/14......Sentiment toward crude oil and energy stocks is near the most pessimistic in a decade

 

01/15/14......With the S&P 500 at a high, there is a negative divergence with the percentage of components above their 50-day and 200-day averages

 

01/14/14......Strategists on Wall Street have upped their S&P 500 price target, but not before the index got historically overvalued in December

 

01/13/14......The S&P's decline from near a high was unusually large

 

01/10/14......The VIX Put/Call Open Interest Ratio is showing many more call options than puts, suggesting a rise in volatility

 

01/09/14......Wall Street analysts have raised price targets on many more stocks than they've lowered

 

01/08/14......The Equity Hedging Index is showing that traders have never had fewer hedges over a four-week period

 

01/07/14......Traders focused in the OTC penny stock market still aren't showing signs of excessive speculation

 

01/06/14......Mutual fund managers focused on value are carrying their lowest stock exposure in at least 14 years

 

01/03/14......The 10-day Total Put/Call Ratio is more than 20% below its 200-day average

 

01/02/14......Dumb Money Confidence has surged in the past few days

 

 

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