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2013 Report Archive

 

JAN  FEB  MAR  APR  MAY  JUN  JUL  AUG  SEP  OCT  NOV  DEC

 

 

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June

 

06/18/13......There isn't anything new to report as traders await the Fed decision tomorrow

 

06/17/13......The S&P's range over the past 10 days is more than 75% higher than the prior three months

 

06/14/13......Small speculators in Treasury Note and Bond futures have reached a 6-year extreme net short position

 

06/13/13......Breadth, via the Up Issues Ratio, has abruptly switched from extremely oversold to extremely overbought in 3 days

 

06/12/13......A composite indicator score for gold has reached maximum pessimism but the metal is having a hard time rallying

 

06/11/13......Assets in defensive sector funds at Rydex have declined from recent extremes

 

06/10/13......A tight cluster of Hindenburg Omen signals suggests the likelihood of weakness over the next several months

 

06/07/13......The Risk Appetite Index has cycled down into "risk-averse" territory for the first time in a year

 

06/06/13......After becoming extremely oversold, breadth via the Up Issues Ratio surged to its highest level in over a month

 

06/05/13......Over-The-Counter penny stock dollar volume has exploded higher, to a new record relative to the Nasdaq Composite

 

06/04/13......Breadth, according to the Up Issues Ratio, has become oversold soon after the S&P 500 hit a 52-week high

 

06/03/13......The MOVE Index of bond option implied volatility has soared well above the VIX "fear gauge" for stocks

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May

 

05/31/13......Smart money commercial hedgers in DJIA and Nasdaq 100 futures have moved to a record net short position

 

05/30/13......Both the US dollar and S&P 500 have recently hit 52-week highs, but now the dollar has suffered its worst 2-day loss in nearly a year

 

05/29/13......The CS Fear Barometer and CBOE Skew Index are suggesting low risk for equities, but that's odd given historical patterns

 

05/28/13......The number of stock splits in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite is nowhere near past peaks

 

05/24/13......NYSE margin debt continues to rise, pushing investors' net worth, or available cash, to an extreme seen only in the year 2000

 

05/23/13......Rydex mutual fund traders now have more than 5 times worth of assets in bullish index funds than bearish (inverse) ones

 

05/22/13......The OEX put/call ratio and open interest ratio are unusually low, showing that "smart money" is potentially bullish on stocks

 

05/21/13......A long-term Price Oscillator on the S&P 500 has reached a historic extreme; five of six prior instances led to corrections

 

05/20/13......Tech IPOs that have returned 50% or more on their first day have spelled trouble for the market over the past decade

 

05/17/13......Lumber futures have tumbled 20% in two months, while the S&P 500 sits at a new high

 

05/16/13......New 52-week highs on the NYSE have been historically high...for four months

 

05/15/13......The Stock / Bond Ratio has surged above 3

 

05/14/13......Rydex mutual fund traders have stashed nearly 5 times the assets in bullish index funds than bearish ones

 

05/13/13......Stocks and 10-Year Treasury Note yields have both rallied over the past two weeks

 

05/10/13......Small speculators in precious metals (gold, silver, copper, platinum, palladium) have gone net short for first time since 1990

 

05/09/13......The Bull Ratio in the AAII survey of individual investors has rebounded 30% in only four weeks

 

05/08/13......The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index are both overbought, a sign of impressive momentum

 

05/07/13......There hasn't been too much of a change in our sentiment indicators

 

05/06/13......Over-The-Counter (OTC) penny stock volume showed another speculative rise in April

 

05/03/13......The Dow Jones Industrial Average is close to closing above a major round number

 

05/02/13......Wall Street strategists have upped their S&P 500 price targets again, making a 13% gain in six months

 

05/01/13......Individual investors (via AAII) and Wall Street strategists have picked up their allocations to the stock market

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April

 

04/30/13......Assets in stock funds and ETFs now total more than 3.3 times what's invested in safe money market funds

 

04/29/13......Investors' available cash (free credit minus margin debt) at NYSE firms hits a 13-year low

 

04/26/13......Smart money commercial hedgers in heating oil have gone net long to a record degree, while the public is pessimistic

 

04/25/13......The S&P 500 is close to a 52-week high while the Economic Surprise Index is below zero

 

04/24/13......Traders in the Rydex mutual funds have moved aggressively into defensive sectors

 

04/23/13......Defensive stocks have been leading the market higher, but historically that has not been a cause for concern

 

04/22/13......The Barron's Big Money poll shows that large money managers are the most bullish they've been in 20 years

 

04/19/13......Stocks hitting new 52-week lows on the NYSE increased to more than 3% of the total, the first time in 100 days

 

04/18/13......The S&P 500 has dropped below its 50-day average, and has been preceded by the Nasdaq and Russell 2000

 

04/17/13......The Nasdaq Composite index has fallen below its 50-day average after enjoying more than three months above it

 

04/16/13......Monday's decline was a mini shock day, and notable given the S&P 500's recent 52-week high

 

04/15/13......The VIX "fear gauge" jumped more than 40% on Monday, its 8th-largest one-day rise in history

 

04/12/13......The SKEW index is showing a rapidly decreasing probability of a "black swan" event

 

04/11/13......Volume in leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has not increased as the market rallied

 

04/11/13......Brief - Individual investors in the AAII survey show only 19% bulls, the lowest since March 2009

 

04/10/13......The S&P 500 surged 1% to a new 10-year high during April, which hasn't worked out very well during the next six months

 

04/09/13......Public Opinion towards unleaded gas is declining rapidly; previously, low levels have been good for the stock market

 

04/08/13......Over-The-Counter (OTC) penny stock volume showed a large jump in speculative trading in March

 

04/05/13......There has been a surge in buying climaxes among stocks in the S&P 500

 

04/05/13......Brief - Large gaps down in the S&P 500 after a Nonfarm Payroll report

 

04/04/13......Professional market advisors and analysts as polled by Consensus Inc have shown bullishness for three months

 

04/03/13......The small-cap Russell 2000 index has closed below its 50-day average for the first time in four months

 

04/02/13......Assets in equity mutual funds and ETFs are now triple that of assets in money market funds

 

04/01/13......According to AAII, individual investors' stock allocation is nearing its lowest level in a year

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March

 

03/28/13......The S&P 500 has closed at a new 10-year high after at least 5 years of not doing so

 

03/27/13......The S&P has gone 10 consecutive months without more than a -2% monthly loss

 

03/26/13......Margin debt increased again, leaving investors' net worth, or available cash, dangerously low

 

03/25/13......The S&P 500 put in a negative reversal from a high, while harboring optimistic sentiment

 

03/22/13......Sentiment towards the US dollar has become excessively optimistic

 

03/21/13......Another divergence between smart money (corporate insiders) and dumb money (Rydex mutual fund traders)

 

03/20/13......Options activity (put/call value ratio and open interest ratio) show sentiment last seen in late 2009

 

03/19/13......Wall Street strategists have raised their year-end price targets for the S&P 500

 

03/18/13......Sentiment towards transportation stocks is mixed, though Rydex traders are jumping in

 

03/15/13......The smart money (hedgers in equity futures) is getting shorter while the dumb money (mutual fund flow) is getting longer

 

03/14/13......A combined measure of newsletter sentiment shows a near-record level of bullishness

 

03/13/13......The Rydex Nasdaq 100 Bull / Bear Ratio soared in the leveraged funds, but fell back in the non-leveraged ones

 

03/12/13......Odd Lot Short Sales and Inverse ETF Volume show surprising apathy towards stocks

 

03/11/13......Breadth according to the Up Issues Ratio has been positive for 10 straight days

 

03/08/13......Stocks and bond yields have hit 200-day highs together

 

03/07/13......Pension funds have decreased their asset allocation to the stock market

 

03/06/13......A comparison of 17 sentiment indicators to the market peaks in 2000 and 2007 reveals few similarities

 

03/05/13......Three of the four major stock indexes (S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000) closed at a 52-week high

 

03/04/13......Small options traders are buying a lot of put protection

 

03/01/13......Rising margin debt and declining cash has pushed investors' net worth, or available cash, near historic lows

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February

 

02/28/13......Bulls among individual investors, according to the AAII sentiment survey, have dropped below 30%

 

02/27/13......Breadth via the Up Volume Ratio has been either extremely high or extremely low for six straight days

 

02/26/13......The S&P 500 hit a one-month low, then enjoyed a modest intraday reversal

 

02/25/13......The Up Volume Ratio dropped below 10% again, the second time breadth has been extreme in three days

 

02/22/13......Gold sentiment is among the worst it has been in during its decade-long bull market

 

02/21/13......The S&P rose more than 2% during Q4 earnings reports

 

02/20/13......Breadth according to the Up Volume Ratio dropped below 10% the day after the S&P 500 made a new high

 

02/19/13......The CBOE Skew index is rising into extreme territory as the VIX masks underlying options market concern

 

02/15/13......Speculators in energy futures have established a new record long position, possibly troubling for the XLE fund

 

02/14/13......Sentiment towards Treasury bonds has soured significantly, with some evidence of extremes

 

02/13/13......Over the past 30 days, an average of 88% of S&P 500 stocks have traded above their 50-day moving averages

 

02/12/13......Trading activity via E-Trade's DART showed a jump in January, but is still low

 

02/11/13......The S&P 500 is setting new highs, but earnings estimates have been coming down over the past month

 

02/08/13......The McClellan Summation Index has rolled over slightly, showing a loss of momentum, despite the S&P 500 at new highs

 

02/07/13......Fund flows into mutual funds and ETFs have reached decade-high levels as investors pour money in

 

02/06/13......Speculative penny stock volume in the over-the-counter (OTC) market jumped in January, but is still low

 

02/05/13......According to Hulbert Financial Digest, investment newsletters are at a new record exposure to stocks

 

02/04/13......The S&P 500 has closed below its 10-day average, first time in a month, with a high AIM Model reading

 

02/01/13......An unweighted model of advisor and investor sentiment surveys surges to the 3rd-highest level in 25 years

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January

 

01/31/13......Active investment managers, according to NAAIM, are now leveraged long for the first time in history

 

01/30/13......Traders using margin on Japanese stock exchanges have been profitable, a worrisome contrary signal

 

01/29/13......It's the same pattern all over again - modest price rises, and no new sentiment extremes

 

01/28/13......An unweighted model of sentiment surveys shows the highest bullish opinion since 2004

 

01/25/13......The S&P 500's 15-day historical volatility has dropped under 6%, one of the lowest levels in history

 

01/24/13......Individual investors, as polled by AAII, are showing the most bullishness in two years

 

01/23/13......Rydex money market assets have declined, but are not yet quite at an extreme of complacency

 

01/22/13......The CSFB (CS Fear Barometer) has climbed above 30%, showing traders are paying up for put protection

 

01/18/13......The Nasdaq 100 is more than 4% below a 52-week high while the S&P 500 hits a new high, forming a negative divergence

 

01/17/13......Rydex mutual fund traders have jumped into the Transportation Fund

 

01/16/13......The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is close to dropping below 0 after being above 50

 

01/15/13......Sentiment in Apple stock isn't souring much, despite its 30% decline

 

01/14/13......Traders in the Rydex family of mutual funds are still favoring defensive sector funds

 

01/11/13......Flows into equity funds hit the highest level in years, but only for one week

 

01/10/13......New highs on the NYSE recently spiked to more than 14% of total issues, but have since formed a negative divergence

 

01/09/13......The VIX "fear gauge" had an intraday reversal from a one-year low

 

01/08/13......Wall Street strategists have upped their targets for the S&P 500's prospects in 2013

 

01/07/13......Closed-end equity funds are trading at a large discount to net asset value

 

01/04/13......The S&P 500 has closed above its upper Bollinger Band for 3 straight days

 

01/04/13......Brief - VIX drops below 14% for the first time in three months

 

01/03/13......Bond yields and stocks have both surged to 50-day highs

 

01/02/13......Up volume on the NYSE made up 90% of the total on back-to-back days

 

 

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