Home > Report Archive > 2007  

 

Visit the DailyOverview page for the latest reports

 

 

2012  2011  2010  2009  2008  2007  2006  2005  2004  2003  2002

 

2007 Report Archive

 

JAN  FEB  MAR  APR  MAY  JUN  JUL  AUG  SEP  OCT  NOV  DEC

 

 

 

December

 

12/31/07......Seasonal forces have held up well, switches back to positive now

 

12/28/07......Short-term guides now starting to shift to oversold

 

12/27/07......Overbought conditions win out as selling pressure picks up

 

12/26/07......Battle is brewing between overbought vs. seasonality

 

12/24/07......Seasonality trumps short-term overbought conditions for now

 

12/21/07......Finally we get some upside, and it's enough to get overbought

 

12/20/07......Yet another upside intraday reversal sparks hopes of Santa rally

 

12/19/07......Indecisive day doesn't resolve much, but still looking for upside

 

12/18/07......Early-morning selling pressure sees short-term guides stretched

 

12/17/07......Towards the close we finally get some price-based extremes

 

12/14/07......Oversold conditions not enough, market drops through support

 

12/13/07......Short-term models are oversold; watch banks for a bounce

 

12/12/07......Usually not a good idea to try to chase these big gap opens

 

12/11/07......Post-Fed reaction not necessarily a negative going forward

 

12/10/07......Confusion over rate cut magnitude should cause more volatility

 

12/07/07......Tight range is a bad sign, but FOMC meeting matters more

 

12/06/07......Receiving some overbought signals by today's close

 

12/05/07......After consolidation, holding the gap up open another good sign

 

12/04/07......Nasdaq appears to be setting up well for a rebound

 

12/03/07......Still looking for short-term weakness to set up longer-term longs

 

 

November

 

11/30/07......Short-term studies suggest maybe a bit more upside, then rest

 

11/29/07......Market doing its best to confirm recent low

 

11/28/07......Today's up day provides good evidence for longer-term rally

 

11/27/07......Lots of folks are looking for the oversold rally, including us

 

11/26/07......Short-term overbought reading led to another nasty decline

 

11/21/07......Why several indicators are showing a skewed risk/reward ratio

 

11/20/07......Today's reversal helps the bull case, but it is not a panacea

 

11/19/07......We should see a turnaround imminently, or concern will build

 

11/16/07......Could be a couple more days of selling, but extremes are rising

 

11/15/07......A few more positive signs, but short-term still looks dicey

 

11/14/07......Risk/reward at the opening gap up tilted back to neutral

 

11/13/07......Buyers finally gained that much-needed traction

 

11/12/07......Bulls should be showing traction here, but so far not so much

 

11/09/07......Last-hour dive calls short-term positives into question

 

11/08/07......Mid-afternoon buy signal should help tell us about market health

 

11/07/07......Based on the selling pressure, Banks should soon see a bottom

 

11/06/07......Markets are not triggering many emotional extremes in this chop

 

11/05/07......Brokers have sold off to an historic degree

 

11/03/07......Small options traders have established aggressive long-side bets, and Nasdaq volume has been spiking

 

11/02/07......Stiff downside is not triggering many "oversold" readings

 

11/01/07......We got the Fed reversal, but not too many oversold signals yet

 

 

October

 

10/31/07......"Fed reversal" pattern often seen after big post-FOMC moves

 

10/30/07......Overbought conditions lead to moderate drift lower ahead of Fed

 

10/29/07......Small ranges and overbought conditions highlight pre-Fed day

 

10/26/07......A breakout and test of 1520 on the S&P should lead to a rally

 

10/25/07......Some short-term positives are beginning to pop up

 

10/24/07......It's become difficult to find any kind of edge in this whippy tape

 

10/23/07......The bounce may have run its course

 

10/22/07......Looking for a bounce based on last week's drop and today's gap

 

10/19/07......Anniversary of 1987 crash gives traders pause into the close

 

10/18/07......Market not able to respond well to short-term oversold signals

 

10/17/07......Trying to chase large gap opens is a very dangerous idea

 

10/16/07......Some positives pointing higher for the short-term

 

10/15/07......After the early-week selling pressure, we're short-term oversold

 

10/12/07......Next-day rebound after yesterday's reversal was in the script

 

10/11/07......Gap up in QQQQ suggests intraday reversal a high probability

 

10/10/07......I.I. Bulls at one of the highest levels in years

 

10/09/07......Major indices are still rallying from even minor oversold levels

 

10/08/07......Minor pullback is enough to generate short-term oversold signal

 

10/05/07......Large gaps after jobs report tend to reverse in the days following

 

10/04/07......Tight ranges form as traders await tomorrow's jobs report

 

10/03/07......Short-term Nasdaq model close to giving buy signal

 

10/02/07......Starting to see excessive optimism as questionable month begins

 

10/01/07......Breakout over 1540 brings old highs directly into view

 

 

September

 

09/28/07......Taking a look ahead as seasonal factors wear off

 

09/27/07......Looking for weakness as overbought, small range take over

 

09/26/07......Wondering if tech can continue to lead market higher

 

09/25/07......Reversals from a high are not always bearish, as tech shows

 

09/24/07......Post-expiration weakness kicks in as usual

 

09/21/07......Oversold conditions lead to small rally; negative seasonal ahead

 

09/20/07......Even the mild selling pressure was enough to trigger oversold

 

09/19/07......Another gap up open suggests upside likely limited for now

 

09/18/07......Volume skew after FOMC decision most positive since 1982 low

 

09/17/07......Drifty prices are meaningless ahead of Tuesday's FOMC decision

 

09/16/07......Looking at past Fed easing cycles

 

09/14/07......Traders not committing ahead of next week's FOMC meeting

 

09/13/07......Still think the S&P will stall out ahead of looming Fed decision

 

09/12/07......S&P 1480 proves tough resistance as equities hit overbought

 

09/11/07......Steady rally brings short-term guides near overbought levels

 

09/10/07......Morning selling pressure leads to oversold signals from models

 

09/07/07......Inability to hold morning low doused plans for good reversal

 

09/06/07......Tomorrow's jobs report likely holds key to the short-term

 

09/05/07......Testing the idea of a "market structure high"

 

09/04/07......Not much short-term edge as indices continue on their recovery

 

 

August

 

08/31/07......Even a hint of sympathy from Bernanke should bring up 1480

 

08/30/07......Volatile day leaves us little changed

 

08/29/07......Back-to-back volume extremes a very rare phenomenon

 

08/29/07......Checking to see whether higher volatility is bearish

 

08/28/07......Buyers' strike leads to several short-term indicator extremes

 

08/27/07......Still looking for lower prices as overbought status wears off

 

08/24/07......Strong market triggers another round of short-term extremes

 

08/23/07......Stocks continue to hold well, but tough to press short-term longs

 

08/22/07......Rally to new intraday high implies a change in character

 

08/21/07......Market is holding well despite short-term overbought readings

 

08/20/07......Watching how market responds to overbought is another clue

 

08/20/07......We take a look at only price and time to see how unusual this decline has been

 

08/18/07......The last two weeks, and especially the last two days, have brought with them a number of historical moments

 

08/17/07......Need to see market hold overbought conditions, not violate low

 

08/16/07......T-Bills fly off the shelves as new lows on the NYSE near a record

 

08/15/07......Market continues to slice right through oversold readings

 

08/14/07......Indices cannot hold short-term gains, now breach panic lows

 

08/13/07......An "island reversal" in the VIX is another rare, positive sign

 

08/10/07......The first short-term oversold readings emerge this afternoon

 

08/09/07......Market follows through on sell signals, not yet oversold

 

08/08/07......Sell signals from short-term models suggest looming struggle

 

08/07/07......Another big test looming as we become overbought at resistance

 

08/06/07......Huge upside thrust brings with it unusual breadth readings

 

08/03/07......Break of 1460 calls short-term into question

 

08/02/07......Expecting short-term follow-through from yesterday's surge

 

08/01/07......Afternoon reversal helps to confirm some bullish precedents

 

 

July

 

07/31/07......The S&P failed at 1490 as expected, but now we get the big test

 

07/30/07......Today's recovery suggests Friday's low has become the big pivot

 

07/27/07......Another down day triggers historic breadth extremes

 

07/26/07......Breadth skewed to the negative side on an historical scale

 

07/25/07......Indicators begin to recover from severe oversold conditions

 

07/24/07......By the close, stocks recorded worst oversold readings in years

 

07/23/07......Short-term recovery from questionable oversold readings

 

07/22/07......Among other signs that suggest that the small trader has not embraced the bull, options data tells us otherwise

 

07/20/07......Indicators are oversold, but can we trust them?

 

07/19/07......Breakout level of 1555 on the S&P still holding sway

 

07/18/07......Becoming short-term oversold, but breakout levels will hold key

 

07/17/07......Still not interested in chasing prices as seasonality works off

 

07/16/07......Looking for more range trading as extremes wear off

 

07/13/07......Big breakouts usually get at least one day of follow-through

 

07/12/07......Market makes good on short-term buy signals and hits new high

 

07/11/07......Waiting for some follow-through on short-term buy signals

 

07/10/07......Market makes good on yesterday's sell signal; now oversold

 

07/09/07......Short-term guides giving a weak sell signal as S&P tickles high

 

07/06/07......Nasdaq remains overbought, but it's not having an impact

 

07/05/07......Overbought conditions and negative seasonality lead to chop

 

07/03/07......Expecting a positive pre-holiday drift

 

07/02/07......Holiday seasonality kicks in, big move unlikely as volume drops

 

 

June

 

06/29/07......Another short-term failure sets up a critical start to next week

 

06/28/07......Fed day pattern plays out mostly as expected, now overbought

 

06/27/07......Short-term guides suggesting quick rally ahead

 

06/26/07......Streak of lower lows suggests caution if today's low can't hold

 

06/25/07......Afternoon reversal not something we often see during uptrends

 

06/22/07......Latest CoT data adds some heft to current oversold readings

 

06/21/07......Indices rally after brief flirt with oversold readings

 

06/20/07......Short-term guides not oversold despite steady selling pressure

 

06/19/07......Choppy conditions dissipate short-term negatives

 

06/18/07......Indices carve out 2nd narrowest range in 10 years after expiry

 

06/15/07......Negatives crop up for the short-term following today's open

 

06/14/07......Short-term guides finally start to react to recent rally attempt

 

06/13/07......Continued extremes in breadth show longer-term positives

 

06/12/07......Test of last week's low brings volatile breadth readings

 

06/11/07......STEM.MR Models highlight "excessive optimism" this afternoon

 

06/08/07......Oversold conditions get worn off as TRIN hits multi-year low

 

06/07/07......For first time since February, "oversold" doesn't matter

 

06/06/07......Consecutive down days triggers oversold reading in STEM.MR

 

06/05/07......Weakness finally sets in but 1530 on the S&P still holding

 

06/04/07......The 10-day Arms Index has been under 1.0 for 35 of37 days

 

06/01/07......Large gaps on jobs report day are best used as a contrary guide

 

 

May

 

05/31/07......Short-term guides back to neutral after consolidation day

 

05/30/07......Big gaps down to support typically a good buying opportunity

 

05/29/07......High TRIN leads afternoon advance, now things back to neutral

 

05/25/07......Yesterday's oversold readings lead to rebound, no longer o.s.

 

05/24/07......Market finally snaps, triggered oversold extremes in the process

 

05/23/07......Three days, three reversals again gives hope to bears

 

05/23/07......We're seeing a large number of divergences between price and other indicators

 

05/22/07......Intraday rallies continue to fail, suggesting short-term exhaustion

 

05/21/07......Short-term models become overbought for first time in weeks

 

05/18/07......Market worries increase, increasing importance of support levels

 

05/17/07......Market oddities keep piling up, suggesting a change in character

 

05/16/07......Yesterday's reversal stuck to historical bias

 

05/15/07......Intraday reversals not necessarily a bad sign, but momo slows

 

05/14/07......A violation of the 10:30 low should lead to an attack on 1500

 

05/11/07......Thursday's mild oversold readings trigger another rally

 

05/10/07......Fed reversal takes hold again as indices lose support levels

 

05/08/07......Short-term action before Fed meeting is mostly meaningless

 

05/07/07......The range on the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to a dangerous level

 

05/04/07......Gap opens after jobs report release have a tendency to fade

 

05/03/07......Rallying in the face of overbought another strong sign

 

05/02/07......Markets passed short-term oversold test with flying colors

 

05/01/07......Watching to see if the NDX fails under 1885

 

 

April

 

04/30/07......A break of 1885 in the NDX is an initial sign of waning 'mo.

 

04/27/07......Prices continue to hold above the prior days' low

 

04/26/07......Look for another 10:30am low

 

04/25/07......Finally seeing signs of "too far, too fast" in short-term guides

 

04/24/07......Today's low in the NDX should prove to be an effective pivot

 

04/24/07......Volume on the NYSE has been declining as prices rise, but that's a pattern we've seen at almost every major low

 

04/23/07......Do-nothing session highlights conflicting signals

 

04/20/07......Another longer-term positive, but two signs of s.t. exhaustion

 

04/19/07......Watching SMH closely, as its breakout should hold the key

 

04/18/07......STEM Model cycles into most overbought extreme in six months

 

04/16/07......Longer-term positives make short positions highly risky here

 

04/13/07......Recovery moves our short-term guides to neutral

 

04/12/07......Looking to cover any shorts on another push lower

 

04/11/07......Short-term weakness finally takes hold, watching recent lows

 

04/10/07......Yet another tight intraday range with overbought conditions

 

04/09/07......Surprisingly tight range, but should see more weakness ahead

 

04/05/07......Pre-holiday positive bias kicks in, but should be tougher now

 

04/04/07......Typical holiday trading gives us a tight range and low volume

 

04/03/07......Getting some mild overbought readings short-term in the NDX

 

04/02/07......Holiday trading is in effect, which should lead to choppy upside

 

 

March

 

03/30/07......News-induced spike again leads to successful test of support

 

03/29/07......Still looking to buy a dip towards 1410 S&P / 1760 NDX

 

03/28/07......Four reasons why I'm looking for a long setup here

 

03/27/07......Still holding in limbo in the short-term

 

03/26/07......Short-term picture looks like a mess

 

03/23/07......Still likely to see more weakness than strength in the short-term

 

03/22/07......Multiple factors pointing to limited short-term upside

 

03/21/07......2nd-largest post-Fed move in four years

 

03/20/07......Short-term guides didn't become overbought until the close

 

03/19/07......Margin debt has ballooned, but so have cash balances

 

03/19/07......The setup here looks good for a trend day higher

 

03/18/07......Among the many historical extremes lately, put/call ratios have been among the biggest offenders

 

03/16/07......Some intermediate-term pieces coming into place for a low

 

03/15/07......Short-term guides cycling back to overbought again

 

03/14/07......Watching for a flush of sell stops, then upside reversal

 

03/13/07......The low should be tested as we break 1400 in the S&P

 

03/12/07......Short-term models now overbought, rally should fizzle

 

03/09/07......Gap and jobs report suggest reversal next week

 

03/08/07......Recovery on track, but continue to expect some type of retest

 

03/07/07......Past precedents suggest more choppy upside, but a retest of low

 

03/06/07......The McClellan Oscillator is at an historic extreme

 

03/05/07......Caution still warranted as long as S&P 500 is below 1390

 

03/03/07......This week saw a laundry list of extremes among our shorter-term indicators

 

03/02/07......Overbought signals continue to lead to new lows - be careful

 

03/01/07......Trade above 1390 in the S&P should lead to short-term rally

 

 

February

 

02/28/07......As we cycle to short-term overbought, watch afternoon lows

 

02/27/07......Today's selling has triggered a large number of historic readings

 

02/26/07......NDX bounced off intraday oversold reading, but weak so far

 

02/23/07......Semiconductors are extended, and likely hold key to next week

 

02/22/07......Intraday reversal may be initial sign of short-term exhaustion

 

02/21/07......Should see more choppy trading as short-term extremes wear off

 

02/20/07......Short-term guides mostly neutral, except RSI on small-caps

 

02/16/07......Expiration and pending holiday make for choppy trading

 

02/18/07......Despite generally rising equity prices, hedging activity has picked up from December's very low levels

 

02/15/07......Holiday and option expiration make for choppy conditions

 

02/14/07......Fed spurs a breakout, but NDX back to overbought

 

02/13/07......Yesterday's buy signal leads a move back to former support area

 

02/12/07......Technical measures giving a short-term buy signal

 

02/09/07......Range expansion finally arrives, and now is short-term oversold

 

02/08/07......Short-term direction up for grabs, looking to trade volatility

 

02/07/07......Overbought NDX lead to dip, but broader indices still holding

 

02/06/07......NDX bounced well off oversold, but S&P still stuck in range

 

02/05/07......Consecutive days with tight range an extreme rarity

 

02/02/07......Tight-range day when hitting a new high typically precedes drop

 

02/01/07......Multitude of signs pointing to several days of rest ahead

 

 

January

 

01/31/07......Should see a couple of volatile moves after the Fed

 

01/30/07......Looking for about a 7-point range in the S&P prior to Fed

 

01/29/07......Short-term rally attempt should fail as we're already overbought

 

01/26/07......Our short-term models have become oversold

 

01/25/07......Looking for any intraday rallies to fail as overbought works off

 

01/24/07......Towards the close, the NDX became "too stretched" yet again

 

01/23/07......Short-term positives and negatives seem about evenly balanced

 

01/22/07......For really the first time since July, the NDX didn't bounce

 

01/18/07......Technology indices short-term oversold

 

01/17/07......Evidence piles up that we should be seeing a pullback

 

01/16/07......A tight range and overbought conditions normally bring a drop

 

01/12/07......The broader market is defying even recent patterns

 

01/11/07......Short-term guides have cycled back to overbought on the S&P

 

01/10/07......Small-caps about the only thing looking good for a long trade

 

01/09/07......Maybe more bounce coming, but looking to sell it

 

01/08/07......Looking for a bounce as oversold conditions dissipate

 

01/05/07......Short-term becoming critical as change in character seems likely

 

01/04/07......The STEM.MR model for the Nasdaq is back to overbought

 

01/03/07......Short-term oversold lead to quick snap-back

 

01/01/07......We're seeing a lack of hedging exposure by investors, except from those considered to be "smart money"

 

 

top of page