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2007 Report Archive
JAN
FEB MAR
APR MAY
JUN JUL
AUG SEP
OCT
NOV DEC
December
12/31/07......Seasonal forces have held up well, switches back to positive now
12/28/07......Short-term guides now starting to shift to oversold
12/27/07......Overbought conditions win out as selling pressure picks up
12/26/07......Battle is brewing between overbought vs. seasonality
12/24/07......Seasonality trumps short-term overbought conditions for now
12/21/07......Finally we get some upside, and it's enough to get overbought
12/20/07......Yet another upside intraday reversal sparks hopes of Santa rally
12/19/07......Indecisive day doesn't resolve much, but still looking for upside
12/18/07......Early-morning selling pressure sees short-term guides stretched
12/17/07......Towards the close we finally get some price-based extremes
12/14/07......Oversold conditions not enough, market drops through support
12/13/07......Short-term models are oversold; watch banks for a bounce
12/12/07......Usually not a good idea to try to chase these big gap opens
12/11/07......Post-Fed reaction not necessarily a negative going forward
12/10/07......Confusion over rate cut magnitude should cause more volatility
12/07/07......Tight range is a bad sign, but FOMC meeting matters more
12/06/07......Receiving some overbought signals by today's close
12/05/07......After consolidation, holding the gap up open another good sign
12/04/07......Nasdaq appears to be setting up well for a rebound
12/03/07......Still looking for short-term weakness to set up longer-term longs
November
11/30/07......Short-term studies suggest maybe a bit more upside, then rest
11/29/07......Market doing its best to confirm recent low
11/28/07......Today's up day provides good evidence for longer-term rally
11/27/07......Lots of folks are looking for the oversold rally, including us
11/26/07......Short-term overbought reading led to another nasty decline
11/21/07......Why several indicators are showing a skewed risk/reward ratio
11/20/07......Today's reversal helps the bull case, but it is not a panacea
11/19/07......We should see a turnaround imminently, or concern will build
11/16/07......Could be a couple more days of selling, but extremes are rising
11/15/07......A few more positive signs, but short-term still looks dicey
11/14/07......Risk/reward at the opening gap up tilted back to neutral
11/13/07......Buyers finally gained that much-needed traction
11/12/07......Bulls should be showing traction here, but so far not so much
11/09/07......Last-hour dive calls short-term positives into question
11/08/07......Mid-afternoon buy signal should help tell us about market health
11/07/07......Based on the selling pressure, Banks should soon see a bottom
11/06/07......Markets are not triggering many emotional extremes in this chop
11/05/07......Brokers have sold off to an historic degree
11/03/07......Small options traders have established aggressive long-side bets, and Nasdaq volume has been spiking
11/02/07......Stiff downside is not triggering many "oversold" readings
11/01/07......We got the Fed reversal, but not too many oversold signals yet
October
10/31/07......"Fed reversal" pattern often seen after big post-FOMC moves
10/30/07......Overbought conditions lead to moderate drift lower ahead of Fed
10/29/07......Small ranges and overbought conditions highlight pre-Fed day
10/26/07......A breakout and test of 1520 on the S&P should lead to a rally
10/25/07......Some short-term positives are beginning to pop up
10/24/07......It's become difficult to find any kind of edge in this whippy tape
10/23/07......The bounce may have run its course
10/22/07......Looking for a bounce based on last week's drop and today's gap
10/19/07......Anniversary of 1987 crash gives traders pause into the close
10/18/07......Market not able to respond well to short-term oversold signals
10/17/07......Trying to chase large gap opens is a very dangerous idea
10/16/07......Some positives pointing higher for the short-term
10/15/07......After the early-week selling pressure, we're short-term oversold
10/12/07......Next-day rebound after yesterday's reversal was in the script
10/11/07......Gap up in QQQQ suggests intraday reversal a high probability
10/10/07......I.I. Bulls at one of the highest levels in years
10/09/07......Major indices are still rallying from even minor oversold levels
10/08/07......Minor pullback is enough to generate short-term oversold signal
10/05/07......Large gaps after jobs report tend to reverse in the days following
10/04/07......Tight ranges form as traders await tomorrow's jobs report
10/03/07......Short-term Nasdaq model close to giving buy signal
10/02/07......Starting to see excessive optimism as questionable month begins
10/01/07......Breakout over 1540 brings old highs directly into view
September
09/28/07......Taking a look ahead as seasonal factors wear off
09/27/07......Looking for weakness as overbought, small range take over
09/26/07......Wondering if tech can continue to lead market higher
09/25/07......Reversals from a high are not always bearish, as tech shows
09/24/07......Post-expiration weakness kicks in as usual
09/21/07......Oversold conditions lead to small rally; negative seasonal ahead
09/20/07......Even the mild selling pressure was enough to trigger oversold
09/19/07......Another gap up open suggests upside likely limited for now
09/18/07......Volume skew after FOMC decision most positive since 1982 low
09/17/07......Drifty prices are meaningless ahead of Tuesday's FOMC decision
09/16/07......Looking at past Fed easing cycles
09/14/07......Traders not committing ahead of next week's FOMC meeting
09/13/07......Still think the S&P will stall out ahead of looming Fed decision
09/12/07......S&P 1480 proves tough resistance as equities hit overbought
09/11/07......Steady rally brings short-term guides near overbought levels
09/10/07......Morning selling pressure leads to oversold signals from models
09/07/07......Inability to hold morning low doused plans for good reversal
09/06/07......Tomorrow's jobs report likely holds key to the short-term
09/05/07......Testing the idea of a "market structure high"
09/04/07......Not much short-term edge as indices continue on their recovery
August
08/31/07......Even a hint of sympathy from Bernanke should bring up 1480
08/30/07......Volatile day leaves us little changed
08/29/07......Back-to-back volume extremes a very rare phenomenon
08/29/07......Checking to see whether higher volatility is bearish
08/28/07......Buyers' strike leads to several short-term indicator extremes
08/27/07......Still looking for lower prices as overbought status wears off
08/24/07......Strong market triggers another round of short-term extremes
08/23/07......Stocks continue to hold well, but tough to press short-term longs
08/22/07......Rally to new intraday high implies a change in character
08/21/07......Market is holding well despite short-term overbought readings
08/20/07......Watching how market responds to overbought is another clue
08/20/07......We take a look at only price and time to see how unusual this decline has been
08/18/07......The last two weeks, and especially the last two days, have brought with them a number of historical moments
08/17/07......Need to see market hold overbought conditions, not violate low
08/16/07......T-Bills fly off the shelves as new lows on the NYSE near a record
08/15/07......Market continues to slice right through oversold readings
08/14/07......Indices cannot hold short-term gains, now breach panic lows
08/13/07......An "island reversal" in the VIX is another rare, positive sign
08/10/07......The first short-term oversold readings emerge this afternoon
08/09/07......Market follows through on sell signals, not yet oversold
08/08/07......Sell signals from short-term models suggest looming struggle
08/07/07......Another big test looming as we become overbought at resistance
08/06/07......Huge upside thrust brings with it unusual breadth readings
08/03/07......Break of 1460 calls short-term into question
08/02/07......Expecting short-term follow-through from yesterday's surge
08/01/07......Afternoon reversal helps to confirm some bullish precedents
July
07/31/07......The S&P failed at 1490 as expected, but now we get the big test
07/30/07......Today's recovery suggests Friday's low has become the big pivot
07/27/07......Another down day triggers historic breadth extremes
07/26/07......Breadth skewed to the negative side on an historical scale
07/25/07......Indicators begin to recover from severe oversold conditions
07/24/07......By the close, stocks recorded worst oversold readings in years
07/23/07......Short-term recovery from questionable oversold readings
07/22/07......Among other signs that suggest that the small trader has not embraced the bull, options data tells us otherwise
07/20/07......Indicators are oversold, but can we trust them?
07/19/07......Breakout level of 1555 on the S&P still holding sway
07/18/07......Becoming short-term oversold, but breakout levels will hold key
07/17/07......Still not interested in chasing prices as seasonality works off
07/16/07......Looking for more range trading as extremes wear off
07/13/07......Big breakouts usually get at least one day of follow-through
07/12/07......Market makes good on short-term buy signals and hits new high
07/11/07......Waiting for some follow-through on short-term buy signals
07/10/07......Market makes good on yesterday's sell signal; now oversold
07/09/07......Short-term guides giving a weak sell signal as S&P tickles high
07/06/07......Nasdaq remains overbought, but it's not having an impact
07/05/07......Overbought conditions and negative seasonality lead to chop
07/03/07......Expecting a positive pre-holiday drift
07/02/07......Holiday seasonality kicks in, big move unlikely as volume drops
June
06/29/07......Another short-term failure sets up a critical start to next week
06/28/07......Fed day pattern plays out mostly as expected, now overbought
06/27/07......Short-term guides suggesting quick rally ahead
06/26/07......Streak of lower lows suggests caution if today's low can't hold
06/25/07......Afternoon reversal not something we often see during uptrends
06/22/07......Latest CoT data adds some heft to current oversold readings
06/21/07......Indices rally after brief flirt with oversold readings
06/20/07......Short-term guides not oversold despite steady selling pressure
06/19/07......Choppy conditions dissipate short-term negatives
06/18/07......Indices carve out 2nd narrowest range in 10 years after expiry
06/15/07......Negatives crop up for the short-term following today's open
06/14/07......Short-term guides finally start to react to recent rally attempt
06/13/07......Continued extremes in breadth show longer-term positives
06/12/07......Test of last week's low brings volatile breadth readings
06/11/07......STEM.MR Models highlight "excessive optimism" this afternoon
06/08/07......Oversold conditions get worn off as TRIN hits multi-year low
06/07/07......For first time since February, "oversold" doesn't matter
06/06/07......Consecutive down days triggers oversold reading in STEM.MR
06/05/07......Weakness finally sets in but 1530 on the S&P still holding
06/04/07......The 10-day Arms Index has been under 1.0 for 35 of37 days
06/01/07......Large gaps on jobs report day are best used as a contrary guide
May
05/31/07......Short-term guides back to neutral after consolidation day
05/30/07......Big gaps down to support typically a good buying opportunity
05/29/07......High TRIN leads afternoon advance, now things back to neutral
05/25/07......Yesterday's oversold readings lead to rebound, no longer o.s.
05/24/07......Market finally snaps, triggered oversold extremes in the process
05/23/07......Three days, three reversals again gives hope to bears
05/23/07......We're seeing a large number of divergences between price and other indicators
05/22/07......Intraday rallies continue to fail, suggesting short-term exhaustion
05/21/07......Short-term models become overbought for first time in weeks
05/18/07......Market worries increase, increasing importance of support levels
05/17/07......Market oddities keep piling up, suggesting a change in character
05/16/07......Yesterday's reversal stuck to historical bias
05/15/07......Intraday reversals not necessarily a bad sign, but momo slows
05/14/07......A violation of the 10:30 low should lead to an attack on 1500
05/11/07......Thursday's mild oversold readings trigger another rally
05/10/07......Fed reversal takes hold again as indices lose support levels
05/08/07......Short-term action before Fed meeting is mostly meaningless
05/07/07......The range on the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to a dangerous level
05/04/07......Gap opens after jobs report release have a tendency to fade
05/03/07......Rallying in the face of overbought another strong sign
05/02/07......Markets passed short-term oversold test with flying colors
05/01/07......Watching to see if the NDX fails under 1885
April
04/30/07......A break of 1885 in the NDX is an initial sign of waning 'mo.
04/27/07......Prices continue to hold above the prior days' low
04/26/07......Look for another 10:30am low
04/25/07......Finally seeing signs of "too far, too fast" in short-term guides
04/24/07......Today's low in the NDX should prove to be an effective pivot
04/24/07......Volume on the NYSE has been declining as prices rise, but that's a pattern we've seen at almost every major low
04/23/07......Do-nothing session highlights conflicting signals
04/20/07......Another longer-term positive, but two signs of s.t. exhaustion
04/19/07......Watching SMH closely, as its breakout should hold the key
04/18/07......STEM Model cycles into most overbought extreme in six months
04/16/07......Longer-term positives make short positions highly risky here
04/13/07......Recovery moves our short-term guides to neutral
04/12/07......Looking to cover any shorts on another push lower
04/11/07......Short-term weakness finally takes hold, watching recent lows
04/10/07......Yet another tight intraday range with overbought conditions
04/09/07......Surprisingly tight range, but should see more weakness ahead
04/05/07......Pre-holiday positive bias kicks in, but should be tougher now
04/04/07......Typical holiday trading gives us a tight range and low volume
04/03/07......Getting some mild overbought readings short-term in the NDX
04/02/07......Holiday trading is in effect, which should lead to choppy upside
March
03/30/07......News-induced spike again leads to successful test of support
03/29/07......Still looking to buy a dip towards 1410 S&P / 1760 NDX
03/28/07......Four reasons why I'm looking for a long setup here
03/27/07......Still holding in limbo in the short-term
03/26/07......Short-term picture looks like a mess
03/23/07......Still likely to see more weakness than strength in the short-term
03/22/07......Multiple factors pointing to limited short-term upside
03/21/07......2nd-largest post-Fed move in four years
03/20/07......Short-term guides didn't become overbought until the close
03/19/07......Margin debt has ballooned, but so have cash balances
03/19/07......The setup here looks good for a trend day higher
03/18/07......Among the many historical extremes lately, put/call ratios have been among the biggest offenders
03/16/07......Some intermediate-term pieces coming into place for a low
03/15/07......Short-term guides cycling back to overbought again
03/14/07......Watching for a flush of sell stops, then upside reversal
03/13/07......The low should be tested as we break 1400 in the S&P
03/12/07......Short-term models now overbought, rally should fizzle
03/09/07......Gap and jobs report suggest reversal next week
03/08/07......Recovery on track, but continue to expect some type of retest
03/07/07......Past precedents suggest more choppy upside, but a retest of low
03/06/07......The McClellan Oscillator is at an historic extreme
03/05/07......Caution still warranted as long as S&P 500 is below 1390
03/03/07......This week saw a laundry list of extremes among our shorter-term indicators
03/02/07......Overbought signals continue to lead to new lows - be careful
03/01/07......Trade above 1390 in the S&P should lead to short-term rally
February
02/28/07......As we cycle to short-term overbought, watch afternoon lows
02/27/07......Today's selling has triggered a large number of historic readings
02/26/07......NDX bounced off intraday oversold reading, but weak so far
02/23/07......Semiconductors are extended, and likely hold key to next week
02/22/07......Intraday reversal may be initial sign of short-term exhaustion
02/21/07......Should see more choppy trading as short-term extremes wear off
02/20/07......Short-term guides mostly neutral, except RSI on small-caps
02/16/07......Expiration and pending holiday make for choppy trading
02/18/07......Despite generally rising equity prices, hedging activity has picked up from December's very low levels
02/15/07......Holiday and option expiration make for choppy conditions
02/14/07......Fed spurs a breakout, but NDX back to overbought
02/13/07......Yesterday's buy signal leads a move back to former support area
02/12/07......Technical measures giving a short-term buy signal
02/09/07......Range expansion finally arrives, and now is short-term oversold
02/08/07......Short-term direction up for grabs, looking to trade volatility
02/07/07......Overbought NDX lead to dip, but broader indices still holding
02/06/07......NDX bounced well off oversold, but S&P still stuck in range
02/05/07......Consecutive days with tight range an extreme rarity
02/02/07......Tight-range day when hitting a new high typically precedes drop
02/01/07......Multitude of signs pointing to several days of rest ahead
January
01/31/07......Should see a couple of volatile moves after the Fed
01/30/07......Looking for about a 7-point range in the S&P prior to Fed
01/29/07......Short-term rally attempt should fail as we're already overbought
01/26/07......Our short-term models have become oversold
01/25/07......Looking for any intraday rallies to fail as overbought works off
01/24/07......Towards the close, the NDX became "too stretched" yet again
01/23/07......Short-term positives and negatives seem about evenly balanced
01/22/07......For really the first time since July, the NDX didn't bounce
01/18/07......Technology indices short-term oversold
01/17/07......Evidence piles up that we should be seeing a pullback
01/16/07......A tight range and overbought conditions normally bring a drop
01/12/07......The broader market is defying even recent patterns
01/11/07......Short-term guides have cycled back to overbought on the S&P
01/10/07......Small-caps about the only thing looking good for a long trade
01/09/07......Maybe more bounce coming, but looking to sell it
01/08/07......Looking for a bounce as oversold conditions dissipate
01/05/07......Short-term becoming critical as change in character seems likely
01/04/07......The STEM.MR model for the Nasdaq is back to overbought
01/03/07......Short-term oversold lead to quick snap-back
01/01/07......We're seeing a lack of hedging exposure by investors, except from those considered to be "smart money"
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