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Click here to see today's Snapshot

 

December

 

12/31/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Seasonal forces have held up well, switches back to positive now

 

12/28/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-term guides now starting to shift to oversold

 

12/27/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Overbought conditions win out as selling pressure picks up

 

12/26/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Battle is brewing between overbought vs. seasonality

 

12/24/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Seasonality trumps short-term overbought conditions for now

 

12/21/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Finally we get some upside, and it's enough to get overbought

 

12/20/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Yet another upside intraday reversal sparks hopes of Santa rally

 

12/19/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Indecisive day doesn't resolve much, but still looking for upside

 

12/18/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Early-morning selling pressure sees short-term guides stretched

 

12/17/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Towards the close we finally get some price-based extremes

 

12/14/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Oversold conditions not enough, market drops through support

 

12/13/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-term models are oversold; watch banks for a bounce

 

12/12/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Usually not a good idea to try to chase these big gap opens

 

12/11/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Post-Fed reaction not necessarily a negative going forward

 

12/10/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Confusion over rate cut magnitude should cause more volatility

 

12/07/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Tight range is a bad sign, but FOMC meeting matters more

 

12/06/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Receiving some overbought signals by today's close

 

12/05/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   After consolidation, holding the gap up open another good sign

 

12/04/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Nasdaq appears to be setting up well for a rebound

 

12/03/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Still looking for short-term weakness to set up longer-term longs

 

 

November

 

11/30/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-term studies suggest maybe a bit more upside, then rest

 

11/29/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Market doing its best to confirm recent low

 

11/28/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Today's up day provides good evidence for longer-term rally

 

11/27/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Lots of folks are looking for the oversold rally, including us

 

11/26/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-term overbought reading led to another nasty decline

 

11/21/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Why several indicators are showing a skewed risk/reward ratio

 

11/20/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Today's reversal helps the bull case, but it is not a panacea

 

11/19/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   We should see a turnaround imminently, or concern will build

 

11/16/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Could be a couple more days of selling, but extremes are rising

 

11/15/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   A few more positive signs, but short-term still looks dicey

 

11/14/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Risk/reward at the opening gap up tilted back to neutral

 

11/13/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Buyers finally gained that much-needed traction

 

11/12/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Bulls should be showing traction here, but so far not so much

 

11/09/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Last-hour dive calls short-term positives into question

 

11/08/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Mid-afternoon buy signal should help tell us about market health

 

11/07/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Based on the selling pressure, Banks should soon see a bottom

 

11/06/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Markets are not triggering many emotional extremes in this chop

 

11/05/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Brokers have sold off to an historic degree

 

11/03/07......Long-Term Comment

                   Small options traders have established aggressive long-side bets,

                   and Nasdaq volume has been spiking, but still no "bubble"

 

11/02/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Stiff downside is not triggering many "oversold" readings

 

11/01/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   We got the Fed reversal, but not too many oversold signals yet

 

 

October

 

10/31/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   "Fed reversal" pattern often seen after big post-FOMC moves

 

10/30/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Overbought conditions lead to moderate drift lower ahead of Fed

 

10/29/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Small ranges and overbought conditions highlight pre-Fed day

 

10/26/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   A breakout and test of 1520 on the S&P should lead to a rally

 

10/25/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Some short-term positives are beginning to pop up

 

10/24/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   It's become difficult to find any kind of edge in this whippy tape

 

10/23/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   The bounce may have run its course

 

10/22/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Looking for a bounce based on last week's drop and today's gap

 

10/19/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Anniversary of 1987 crash gives traders pause into the close

 

10/18/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Market not able to respond well to short-term oversold signals

 

10/17/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Trying to chase large gap opens is a very dangerous idea

 

10/16/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Some positives pointing higher for the short-term

 

10/15/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   After the early-week selling pressure, we're short-term oversold

 

10/12/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Next-day rebound after yesterday's reversal was in the script

 

10/11/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Gap up in QQQQ suggests intraday reversal a high probability

 

10/10/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   I.I. Bulls at one of the highest levels in years

 

10/09/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Major indices are still rallying from even minor oversold levels

 

10/08/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Minor pullback is enough to generate short-term oversold signal

 

10/05/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Large gaps after jobs report tend to reverse in the days following

 

10/04/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Tight ranges form as traders await tomorrow's jobs report

 

10/03/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-term Nasdaq model close to giving buy signal

 

10/02/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Starting to see excessive optimism as questionable month begins

 

10/01/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Breakout over 1540 brings old highs directly into view

 

 

September

 

09/28/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Taking a look ahead as seasonal factors wear off

 

09/27/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Looking for weakness as overbought, small range take over

 

09/26/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Wondering if tech can continue to lead market higher

 

09/25/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Reversals from a high are not always bearish, as tech shows

 

09/24/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Post-expiration weakness kicks in as usual

 

09/21/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Oversold conditions lead to small rally; negative seasonal ahead

 

09/20/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Even the mild selling pressure was enough to trigger oversold

 

09/19/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Another gap up open suggests upside likely limited for now

 

09/18/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Volume skew after FOMC decision most positive since 1982 low

 

09/17/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Drifty prices are meaningless ahead of Tuesday's FOMC decision

 

09/16/07......Long-Term Comment

                   With the Fed easing the discount rate, there is some confusion

                   as to what that means, so we look at history to find out

 

09/14/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Traders not committing ahead of next week's FOMC meeting

 

09/13/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Still think the S&P will stall out ahead of looming Fed decision

 

09/12/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   S&P 1480 proves tough resistance as equities hit overbought

 

09/11/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Steady rally brings short-term guides near overbought levels

 

09/10/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Morning selling pressure leads to oversold signals from models

 

09/07/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Inability to hold morning low doused plans for good reversal

 

09/06/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Tomorrow's jobs report likely holds key to the short-term

 

09/05/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Testing the idea of a "market structure high"

 

09/04/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Not much short-term edge as indices continue on their recovery

 

 

August

 

08/31/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Even a hint of sympathy from Bernanke should bring up 1480

 

08/30/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Volatile day leaves us little changed

 

08/29/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Back-to-back volume extremes a very rare phenomenon

 

08/29/07......Long-Term Comment

                   One of the new arguments from those expecting more downside

                   is that higher volatility is bearish, so this comment checks it out

 

08/28/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Buyers' strike leads to several short-term indicator extremes

 

08/27/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Still looking for lower prices as overbought status wears off

 

08/24/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Strong market triggers another round of short-term extremes

 

08/23/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Stocks continue to hold well, but tough to press short-term longs

 

08/22/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Rally to new intraday high implies a change in character

 

08/21/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Market is holding well despite short-term overbought readings

 

08/20/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Watching how market responds to overbought is another clue

 

08/20/07......Long-Term Comment

                   Ignoring breadth and sentiment for awhile, we take a look at

                   only price and time, to see how unusual this decline has been

 

08/18/07......Long-Term Comment

                   The last two weeks, and especially the last two days, have

                   brought with them a number of historical moments

 

08/17/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Need to see market hold overbought conditions, not violate low

 

08/16/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   T-Bills fly off the shelves as new lows on the NYSE near a record

 

08/15/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Market continues to slice right through oversold readings

 

08/14/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Indices cannot hold short-term gains, now breach panic lows

 

08/13/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   An "island reversal" in the VIX is another rare, positive sign

 

08/10/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   The first short-term oversold readings emerge this afternoon

 

08/09/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Market follows through on sell signals, not yet oversold

 

08/08/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Sell signals from short-term models suggest looming struggle

 

08/07/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Another big test looming as we become overbought at resistance

 

08/06/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Huge upside thrust brings with it unusual breadth readings

 

08/03/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Break of 1460 calls short-term into question

 

08/02/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Expecting short-term follow-through from yesterday's surge

 

08/01/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Afternoon reversal helps to confirm some bullish precedents

 

 

July

 

07/31/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   The S&P failed at 1490 as expected, but now we get the big test

 

07/30/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Today's recovery suggests Friday's low has become the big pivot

 

07/27/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Another down day triggers historic breadth extremes

 

07/26/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Breadth skewed to the negative side on an historical scale

 

07/25/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Indicators begin to recover from severe oversold conditions

 

07/24/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   By the close, stocks recorded worst oversold readings in years

 

07/23/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-term recovery from questionable oversold readings

 

07/22/07......Long-Term Comment

                   Among other signs that suggest that the small trader has

                   not embraced the bull, options data tells us otherwise

 

07/20/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Indicators are oversold, but can we trust them?

 

07/19/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Breakout level of 1555 on the S&P still holding sway

 

07/18/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Becoming short-term oversold, but breakout levels will hold key

 

07/17/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Still not interested in chasing prices as seasonality works off

 

07/16/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Looking for more range trading as extremes wear off

 

07/13/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Big breakouts usually get at least one day of follow-through

 

07/12/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Market makes good on short-term buy signals and hits new high

 

07/11/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Waiting for some follow-through on short-term buy signals

 

07/10/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Market makes good on yesterday's sell signal; now oversold

 

07/09/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-term guides giving a weak sell signal as S&P tickles high

 

07/06/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Nasdaq remains overbought, but it's not having an impact

 

07/05/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Overbought conditions and negative seasonality lead to chop

 

07/03/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Expecting a positive pre-holiday drift

 

07/02/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Holiday seasonality kicks in, big move unlikely as volume drops

 

 

June

 

06/29/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Another short-term failure sets up a critical start to next week

 

06/28/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Fed day pattern plays out mostly as expected, now overbought

 

06/27/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-term guides suggesting quick rally ahead

 

06/26/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Streak of lower lows suggests caution if today's low can't hold

 

06/25/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Afternoon reversal not something we often see during uptrends

 

06/22/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Latest CoT data adds some heft to current oversold readings

 

06/21/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Indices rally after brief flirt with oversold readings

 

06/20/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-term guides not oversold despite steady selling pressure

 

06/19/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Choppy conditions dissipate short-term negatives

 

06/18/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Indices carve out 2nd narrowest range in 10 years after expiry

 

06/15/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Negatives crop up for the short-term following today's open

 

06/14/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-term guides finally start to react to recent rally attempt

 

06/13/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Continued extremes in breadth show longer-term positives

 

06/12/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Test of last week's low brings volatile breadth readings

 

06/11/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   STEM.MR Models highlight "excessive optimism" this afternoon

 

06/08/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Oversold conditions get worn off as TRIN hits multi-year low

 

06/07/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   For first time since February, "oversold" doesn't matter

 

06/06/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Consecutive down days triggers oversold reading in STEM.MR

 

06/05/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Weakness finally sets in but 1530 on the S&P still holding

 

06/04/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   The 10-day Arms Index has been under 1.0 for 35 of37 days

 

06/01/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Large gaps on jobs report day are best used as a contrary guide

 

 

May

 

05/31/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-term guides back to neutral after consolidation day

 

05/30/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Big gaps down to support typically a good buying opportunity

 

05/29/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   High TRIN leads afternoon advance, now things back to neutral

 

05/25/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Yesterday's oversold readings lead to rebound, no longer o.s.

 

05/24/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Market finally snaps, triggered oversold extremes in the process

 

05/23/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Three days, three reversals again gives hope to bears

 

05/23/07......Long-Term Comment

                   We're seeing a large number of divergences between price

                   and other indicators

 

05/22/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Intraday rallies continue to fail, suggesting short-term exhaustion

 

05/21/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Short-term models become overbought for first time in weeks

 

05/18/07......Daily Snapshot Note

                   Market worries increase, increasing importanc