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2008 Report Archive

 

JAN  FEB  MAR  APR  MAY  JUN  JUL  AUG  SEP  OCT  NOV  DEC

 

 

December

 

12/31/08......Again we're seeing a number of bearish short-term signs

 

12/31/08......The market hasn't done anything "wrong"...or "right"

 

12/30/08......Temporary negative edge gets a little bit smaller for now

 

12/29/08......Put/Call Ratios, signposts pointing lower for the short-term

 

12/24/08......Short-term edges point higher for the coming sessions

 

12/23/08......SPX/VIX correlation hasn't been a good indicator lately

 

12/22/08......Another extremely overbought breadth indicator

 

12/19/08......A relatively quiet week, with some positive seasonality coming

 

12/18/08......Bonds in runaway mode, stocks quiet ahead of expiration

 

12/17/08......Crossing above 50-day moving average is nothing special

 

12/16/08......Gap up opening bodes well for the rest of the day

 

12/15/08......Some positive seasonality in store for this week

 

12/12/08......Big gap down should lead to at least a short-term snapback

 

12/11/08......Should see a spike below congestion, then an int-term rally

 

12/10/08......A couple of short-term negatives as stocks chop in a range

 

12/09/08......Up Volume Ratio thrust is giving a longer-term positive signal

 

12/08/08......Longer-term prospects continue to brighten, short-term not

 

12/05/08......Some new glimmers of a rally during another volatile week

 

12/05/08......A few more glimmers of bottoming potential

 

12/04/08......In the aftermath of oversold-then-overbought extremes

 

12/03/08......Breadth flip-flop buy signal strikes again as investors sell rallies

 

12/02/08......Watching 850 on the S&P 500 as probable resistance

 

12/01/08......Short-term overbought, but some intermediate-term positives

 

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November

 

11/24/08......Market moving towards short-term overbought readings

 

11/21/08......Extremely oversold once again, not sure it'll matter this time

 

11/20/08......Corporate insider purchases surge, a good longer-term sign

 

11/19/08......A break of the first-hour low should usher in new yearly lows

 

11/18/08......Bullish edges persist, but we have to start rallying

 

11/17/08......Small options traders starting to heavily buy some protection

 

11/14/08......Key Reversal Day could actually be a key going forward

 

11/13/08......Watch for a "false" breakdown to trigger an upside snapback

 

11/12/08......Don't expect the same extremes now that we got in October

 

11/11/08......There are multiple longer-term positives, but if we can't hold...

 

11/10/08......Failure from opening gap shows no change in character

 

11/08/08......Speculation in pink sheet stocks has dried up

 

11/07/08......Corporate insiders finally buying in the S&P 500

 

11/06/08......Massive back-to-back declines are another historic event

 

11/05/08......Short-term negatives finally take hold, but longer-term positives

 

11/04/08......Post-election performance tends to lag the pre-performance

 

11/03/08......A multitude of short-term overbought signals pop up

 

11/01/08......What wealth evaporation looks like - a decline in free credits

 

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October

 

10/31/08......Seasonality looks good, but there are some trouble spots too

 

10/30/08......Market is holding up well so far, that needs to continue

 

10/29/08......What the low Arms Index (aka TRIN) may mean for us now

 

10/28/08......A second major rise within a month first time in 75 years

 

10/27/08......Small investors are still not caving in to the panic

 

10/24/08......The bottoming process is hanging by a thread

 

10/23/08......Despite the selling, we're not short-term oversold; risk is high

 

10/22/08......Euro/Yen comes back to the fore, and we're still not oversold

 

10/21/08......Sitting out the volatility as short-term edges remain elusive

 

10/20/08......"Indicators At Extremes" had hit a new extreme itself

 

10/17/08......Short-term overbought conditions again precede a pullback

 

10/16/08......A review of recent extremes brings up a multitude

 

10/16/08......The only real comparison to our current market is 1929

 

10/15/08......Despite expectations, the re-test of the panic low is here

 

10/14/08......What the worst week / best day in a decade may mean

 

10/13/08......Why we're looking for a V-shaped, 20%+ short-term bounce

 

10/10/08......This week's extremes and catalysts suggest a low is at hand

 

10/09/08......Given the multitude of extremes, Friday is the day of reckoning

 

10/08/08......More records in a tumultuous tape

 

10/07/08......New lows, deviations from averages point to historic extremes

 

10/06/08......Another day of historic extremes

 

10/03/08......Failures to deliver Treasuries spike as does public Libor interest

 

10/02/08......Here's the re-test...can the pattern hold?

 

10/01/08......Watch for the usual post-crash, post-rebound letdown

 

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September

 

09/30/08......We should see a major short-term bounce after yesterday

 

09/29/08......Should see a bounce, then test, of panic conditions

 

09/29/08......A bevy of extremes as indices post record readings

 

09/29/08......A history of plunges in the DJIA

 

09/26/08......The pricing of assets raises concerns for investors

 

09/25/08......Short-term guides are cycling into overbought territory

 

09/24/08......Money continues to flow into safe havens

 

09/24/08......The "no short" list is not just financials - here or abroad

 

09/23/08......Volume contraction underscores historically unique moment

 

09/22/08......Banning short sales has been tried before, unsuccessfully

 

09/19/08......Bullish factors persist, but intervention is a wild card

 

09/18/08......We must rally today, or a crash is likely imminent

 

09/17/08......This is, in a word, chaos - if no rally now, then no precedents

 

09/16/08......Probability exists for intermediate-term gains, but short-term vol

 

09/16/08......Intraday, the Panic Button reached historic proportions

 

09/15/08......Now we're finally starting to see some panic readings again

 

09/12/08......Despite pockets of concern, the "Panic Button" has not triggered

 

09/11/08......Volatile conditions aren't triggering same signals as past lows

 

09/10/08......Short-term guides suggested snapback, but big worries remain

 

09/09/08......The recent three-day pattern places a lot of import on reaction

 

09/08/08......Reversal precedents give mixed short-term signals

 

09/05/08......Exhaustive selling pressure should be good for a bounce

 

09/04/08......Support can't hold, and it turns into a trend day down

 

09/04/08......The cash cushion - how much cash is sitting on the sidelines?

 

09/03/08......Revisiting the most-hated (and loved) stocks in America

 

09/03/08......Starting to see a weak "oversold on support" setup forming

 

09/02/08......Weakness before a holiday most often leads to weakness after

 

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August

 

08/29/08......More signs that rally of past few days is going to give some back

 

08/28/08......Price patterns suggest pre-holiday surge may not last

 

08/27/08......Same conflict exists in the short-term between longs and shorts

 

08/26/08......Sell-off's low volume might actually be a negative

 

08/25/08......List of negatives gets a break after the large down day

 

08/22/08......Latest CoT reports suggest trouble if recent patterns hold

 

08/21/08......A couple of warning signs give first hints of potential trouble

 

08/20/08......The NDX should show positive one-week returns, or else

 

08/19/08......Mid-week reversal theory tested as oversold signals emerge

 

08/18/08......The S&P is approaching another oversold on support setup

 

08/15/08......What's driving stocks more - the Dollar or Oil?

 

08/14/08......Watch for exceptionally low volume, but not low volatility

 

08/13/08......S&P starting to hit short-term oversold signals

 

08/12/08......Nasdaq overbought, Gold oversold and S&P in the middle

 

08/11/08......Not finding much reason to bet against rally just yet

 

08/08/08......Olympic Games helping to provide a net?

 

08/06/08......What we need to know about the Dow's string of 2% gains

 

08/06/08......Market's hold of gains a good sign, but still watch for reversal

 

08/05/08......Market follows FOMC pattern closely, but watch for reversal

 

08/04/08......Another down day might help generate oversold into FOMC

 

08/01/08......The most-hated (and loved) stocks in America

 

08/01/08......Down days help to alleviate short-term negatives

 

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July

 

07/31/08......Positive seasonality is tapering off as August approaches

 

07/30/08......Impressive rally brings with it short-term overbought readings

 

07/29/08......We finally get an impressive breadth day

 

07/28/08......Not getting many buy signals despite the selling pressure

 

07/25/08......Range contracts as traders take a breath

 

07/24/08......Short-term negatives take hold, already starting to see oversold

 

07/23/08......Lack of big positive breadth day is causing some concern

 

07/22/08......Not much to stay against the current rally attempt

 

07/21/08......Looking for short-term weakness as price patterns play out

 

07/18/08......Volume surge on an up day has led to great longer-term returns

 

07/17/08......Follow through to yesterday's rally has an impressive history

 

07/16/08......Bank rally, heavy volume suggest continued upside bias

 

07/15/08......VIX / Treasury ratio spikes to panic levels, new lows surge

 

07/14/08......Short-term volatility is here to stay for the time being

 

07/11/08......Looking for a weekend resolution of the Fannie/Freddie mess

 

07/11/08......Taking a look at major bank failure historical precedents

 

07/10/08......Smart / Dumb Confidence spread widens to a new extreme

 

07/09/08......Failure to hold recent lows ushers in few historical precedents

 

07/08/08......Bank reversal helps oversold rally's prospects going forward

 

07/07/08......We're oversold on an historic scale, but that may not be enough

 

07/03/08......Breadth has been so persistently bad that precedents are ugly

 

07/02/08......Too many folks looking for a bounce, spike in Oil, stop the rally

 

07/01/08......The intraday reversal should help lead to more short-term gains

 

 (go to top)   

 

 

June

 

06/30/08......The "Panic Button" indicator has still not been pressed

 

06/27/08......The S&P 500 is headed for its worst June in history

 

06/26/08......Not eager to buy yet, as we're just not seeing great concern

 

06/25/08......Yet more positive signs, but watch out for post-Fed reversal

 

06/24/08......Action in banks, breadth is an odd market development

 

06/23/08......Still not seeing many short-term pessimistic extremes

 

06/22/08......Dumb Money drops, but what about the other indicators?

 

06/20/08......Dumb Money Confidence falls all the way down to 29%

 

06/19/08......Intermediate-term sentiment is rapidly improving

 

06/18/08......A Hindenburg Omen has triggered, the last two were great sells

 

06/17/08......Not trusting any further gains to last

 

06/16/08......Indicators suggested more short-term lift, now a bit overbought

 

06/13/08......Selling in Bank shares has been severe on an historic scale

 

06/12/08......There are some decent oversold signals, but for just a bounce

 

06/11/08......Four days of bad breadth was historically a good buy signal

 

06/10/08......The Dollar just staged in largest gain in two years - what next?

 

06/10/08......Inter-market correlations continue to break down

 

06/09/08......Market is more likely to reverse mid-week, but no good setups

 

06/06/08......Action in banking sector looks to be capitulatory

 

06/06/08......The Unemployment Rate indicator

 

06/05/08......Rebound sets up some interesting stats for jobs report reaction

 

06/04/08......BKX Banking Index has gotten hit hard, perhaps too hard

 

06/03/08......Negatives continue to take their toll, last week's low is looming

 

06/02/08......The new month starts off with the 2nd-weakest bang of the year

 

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May

 

05/30/08......A lackluster end to a choppy month

 

05/29/08......Follow-through rally brings a hint of overbought readings

 

05/28/08......Seasonality still positive, but other edges hard to come by

 

05/27/08......Tech leads market on oversold bounce

 

05/23/08......Pre-holiday trading not having its usual positive bias

 

05/22/08......Nasdaq 100 looks to be short-term oversold

 

05/22/08......We show a correlation matrix showing which countries correlate

 

05/21/08......Seasonality suggests a bounce at least by end of month

 

05/20/08......NYSE volume is not what it appears; rare sign of many reversals

 

05/19/08......Is this a typical bear market rally?

 

05/19/08......The demand for protection is drying up

 

05/16/08......Persistent buying pressure is odd given action in the bank sector

 

05/15/08......A list of negatives makes it difficult to trust the breakout, but...

 

05/15/08......Rydex assets suggest tech may pause

 

05/14/08......Rallies into mid-week during option expiry tend to peter out

 

05/13/08......Short-covering rally?  Nah, just another record-low volume day

 

05/12/08......Implied volatility implodes as some minor overbought signs hit

 

05/09/08......Outlining a case for more short-term weakness

 

05/08/08......Banks, bonds decline but S&P holds up...an unusual omen

 

05/07/08......Negatives finally take hold, now we're oversold on support

 

05/06/08......Nasdaq / NYSE Volume Ratio gives another minor warning

 

05/05/08......Big breadth divergence is another minor negative

 

05/03/08......Will the Dollar disappoint again (and will the Euro shine)?

 

05/02/08......Still some minor negatives as indices struggle with resistance

 

05/01/08......Typical post-FOMC reversal turns into a trend day

 

 (go to top)   

 

 

April

 

04/30/08......Market provides an unusual reaction to FOMC decision

 

04/29/08......Indices just chop around ahead of data and FOMC meeting

 

04/28/08......Stocks are slightly overbought, but data will be more important

 

04/27/08......The Barron's Big Money poll isn't much use for forecasting

 

04/26/08......Gasoline prices have a few factors working for lower levels

 

04/25/08......The low volume in ETFs continues to be a potential negative

 

04/24/08......Today's asset rotation may not mean much

 

04/23/08......Taking a look at how Apple's earnings have impacted the indices

 

04/22/08......Short-term negative biases abound, then abate as indices decline

 

04/21/08......Low volume is one of the few potential trouble spots

 

04/18/08......Various factors point to short-term pullback

 

04/17/08......Day of consolidation follows yesterday's overbought readings

 

04/16/08......Stocks, and particularly tech, follow through with a trend day

 

04/15/08......Technology indices looking better as NDX nears support

 

04/14/08......It's just a myth that the market gaps more during earnings

 

04/14/08......Investors' appetites for IPOs has dwindled to nothing

 

04/11/08......GE foils market's attempt to hold most recent support

 

04/10/08......Stocks make a little headway, but outlook remains muddled

 

04/09/08......Indices were not able to follow through on minor buy setup

 

04/08/08......Some minor indications that we're getting oversold on support

 

04/08/08......Small businesses are showing a record high level of pessimism

 

04/07/08......Gap reversal, small range suggest lower prices ahead

 

04/04/08......April begins with one of the best starts to a month in five years

 

04/03/08......Weakness on economic releases is typically a bad reason to sell

 

04/02/08......Typical consolidation of yesterday's gain doesn't clear outlook

 

04/01/08......Market follows through on bullish setup, scores another 3% day

 

 (go to top)   

 

 

March

 

03/31/08......Short-term pullback is classic so far, but now we need upside

 

03/28/08......Some negative seasonality here, good test of "pullback" idea

 

03/27/08......Test of breakout levels will be stocks' next challenge

 

03/26/08......Short-term enthusiasm suggests some backing-and-filling here

 

03/25/08......Looking for some consolidation as overbought wears off

 

03/24/08......Upside follow-through is welcome, but is hitting overbought

 

03/20/08......Treasury market turmoil a sign that recent uncertainty is historic

 

03/19/08......Multiple 90% volume days is a rare historical event

 

03/18/08......Two 3% one-day gains has important historical precedents

 

03/17/08......Intraday reversal suggests more upside should be ahead

 

03/14/08......Volatility, bond yields again suggesting low should be near

 

03/13/08......Gap down opening presents a short-term opportunity

 

03/12/08......Yesterday's "best gain in five years" is a notable signal

 

03/11/08......Decade-low Dumb Money Confidence precedes vicious rally

 

03/10/08......Despite price losses, extremes were few until the closing minutes

 

03/07/08......We're in a no-man's land under the January closing low

 

03/06/08......Wicked selling pressure drops us below the January close

 

03/06/08......Is the Smart Money buying?  A look at the Smart Money Index

 

03/05/08......Upside reversals, bullish setups cannot gain any traction

 

03/04/08......Tricky tape not giving much follow-through to bullish setups

 

03/03/08......Fourth straight down months brings with it notable comparisons

 

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February

 

02/29/08......Stiff selling pressure brings oversold readings in the short-term

 

02/28/08......"Overbought, under resistance, in a down-trend" is still a curse

 

02/27/08......Stocks churn under resistance levels ahead of GDP report

 

02/26/08......Indices are running into overbought conditions right at resistance

 

02/25/08......Market attempting mirror image of downside breakout

 

02/22/08......Study of past volatility contractions suggests false move likely

 

02/21/08......What the current triangle in the indices may mean going forward

 

02/20/08......Consecutive-day reversals after big gaps is a new phenomenon

 

02/20/08......A decade-long extreme in commodity sentiment suggests caution

 

02/19/08......Once again, it didn't pay to buy into a gap up after expiration

 

02/15/08......No longer overbought, but we do have some bad seasonality

 

02/14/08......Overbought conditions, negative seasonality pull plug on rally

 

02/13/08......Follow-through rally starting to push us into stretched territory

 

02/12/08......Short-term "breakout" argues for stronger prices still to come

 

02/11/08......Once again, we receive little in the form of short-term resolution

 

02/10/08......Over the past few weeks, we've seen panic, a remarkable rebound, and historic volatility

 

02/08/08......A quiet day that doesn't help resolve much in the short-term

 

02/07/08......Judging the day's prospects as an inflection point

 

02/06/08......Afternoon selling spree gives us the much-anticipated retest

 

02/05/08......Heavy selling pressure ushers in volatility of an historical scale

 

02/04/08......Market pullback nothing out of the ordinary

 

02/01/08......Overbought conditions may be briefly overridden by tech merger

 

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January

 

01/31/08......Short-term models reaching overbought by the close

 

01/30/08......Reversal of post-Fed rally got started earlier than normal

 

01/29/08......Look for mostly meaningless chop ahead of FOMC decision

 

01/28/08......Looming FOMC decision, earnings reports, add to currents

 

01/27/08......Why there is too much interest in short interest as an indicator

 

01/25/08......Shorting into Microsoft-induced gap was a high-probability trade

 

01/24/08......Rally continues, but now becoming overbought with resistance

 

01/23/08......Signs of selling exhaustion provide potential fuel for quick rally

 

01/22/08......Market rebounded from gap in line with prior crashes

 

01/21/08......Current gap down is on a par with prior crashes ('87 and '01)

 

01/18/08......Markets still not responding to waterfall-type conditions

 

01/17/08......What happens when cash is the best asset

 

01/17/08......Severity of price decline is a on a par with past waterfalls

 

01/16/08......Big price swings continue to trigger relatively little emotion

 

01/15/08......Break below support zone finally lifting some complacency

 

01/14/08......Another lackadaisical trading day with a large point range

 

01/11/08......Are investors currently under-invested?

 

01/11/08......Large daily decline was very quite, not triggering s.t. extremes

 

01/10/08......Signs of pessimism continue to spring up, but rally should fail

 

01/09/08......By mid-afternoon today, we finally got short-term washout

 

01/08/08......Taking a look at how long it took for stocks to bottom

 

01/08/08......Concern among traders picking up, but S&P 1400 should fail

 

01/07/08......Weighing a recession's impact by asset class

 

01/07/08......Despite price pressure, small options traders not buying puts

 

01/05/08......Calls for a recession are growing - what's the impact on stocks?

 

01/04/08......Morning failure of bullish setup leads to even more pressure

 

01/03/08......Market is having trouble responding to a positive setup

 

01/03/08......The AAII sentiment survey is showing signs of too much pessimism, but others are showing the opposite

 

01/02/08......Indices suffer one of the biggest first-day drawdowns ever

 

 

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