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2008 Report Archive
JAN
FEB MAR
APR MAY
JUN JUL
AUG SEP
OCT
NOV DEC
December
12/31/08......Again we're seeing a number of bearish short-term signs
12/31/08......The market hasn't done anything "wrong"...or "right"
12/30/08......Temporary negative edge gets a little bit smaller for now
12/29/08......Put/Call Ratios, signposts pointing lower for the short-term
12/24/08......Short-term edges point higher for the coming sessions
12/23/08......SPX/VIX correlation hasn't been a good indicator lately
12/22/08......Another extremely overbought breadth indicator
12/19/08......A relatively quiet week, with some positive seasonality coming
12/18/08......Bonds in runaway mode, stocks quiet ahead of expiration
12/17/08......Crossing above 50-day moving average is nothing special
12/16/08......Gap up opening bodes well for the rest of the day
12/15/08......Some positive seasonality in store for this week
12/12/08......Big gap down should lead to at least a short-term snapback
12/11/08......Should see a spike below congestion, then an int-term rally
12/10/08......A couple of short-term negatives as stocks chop in a range
12/09/08......Up Volume Ratio thrust is giving a longer-term positive signal
12/08/08......Longer-term prospects continue to brighten, short-term not
12/05/08......Some new glimmers of a rally during another volatile week
12/05/08......A few more glimmers of bottoming potential
12/04/08......In the aftermath of oversold-then-overbought extremes
12/03/08......Breadth flip-flop buy signal strikes again as investors sell rallies
12/02/08......Watching 850 on the S&P 500 as probable resistance
12/01/08......Short-term overbought, but some intermediate-term positives
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November
11/24/08......Market moving towards short-term overbought readings
11/21/08......Extremely oversold once again, not sure it'll matter this time
11/20/08......Corporate insider purchases surge, a good longer-term sign
11/19/08......A break of the first-hour low should usher in new yearly lows
11/18/08......Bullish edges persist, but we have to start rallying
11/17/08......Small options traders starting to heavily buy some protection
11/14/08......Key Reversal Day could actually be a key going forward
11/13/08......Watch for a "false" breakdown to trigger an upside snapback
11/12/08......Don't expect the same extremes now that we got in October
11/11/08......There are multiple longer-term positives, but if we can't hold...
11/10/08......Failure from opening gap shows no change in character
11/08/08......Speculation in pink sheet stocks has dried up
11/07/08......Corporate insiders finally buying in the S&P 500
11/06/08......Massive back-to-back declines are another historic event
11/05/08......Short-term negatives finally take hold, but longer-term positives
11/04/08......Post-election performance tends to lag the pre-performance
11/03/08......A multitude of short-term overbought signals pop up
11/01/08......What wealth evaporation looks like - a decline in free credits
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October
10/31/08......Seasonality looks good, but there are some trouble spots too
10/30/08......Market is holding up well so far, that needs to continue
10/29/08......What the low Arms Index (aka TRIN) may mean for us now
10/28/08......A second major rise within a month first time in 75 years
10/27/08......Small investors are still not caving in to the panic
10/24/08......The bottoming process is hanging by a thread
10/23/08......Despite the selling, we're not short-term oversold; risk is high
10/22/08......Euro/Yen comes back to the fore, and we're still not oversold
10/21/08......Sitting out the volatility as short-term edges remain elusive
10/20/08......"Indicators At Extremes" had hit a new extreme itself
10/17/08......Short-term overbought conditions again precede a pullback
10/16/08......A review of recent extremes brings up a multitude
10/16/08......The only real comparison to our current market is 1929
10/15/08......Despite expectations, the re-test of the panic low is here
10/14/08......What the worst week / best day in a decade may mean
10/13/08......Why we're looking for a V-shaped, 20%+ short-term bounce
10/10/08......This week's extremes and catalysts suggest a low is at hand
10/09/08......Given the multitude of extremes, Friday is the day of reckoning
10/08/08......More records in a tumultuous tape
10/07/08......New lows, deviations from averages point to historic extremes
10/06/08......Another day of historic extremes
10/03/08......Failures to deliver Treasuries spike as does public Libor interest
10/02/08......Here's the re-test...can the pattern hold?
10/01/08......Watch for the usual post-crash, post-rebound letdown
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September
09/30/08......We should see a major short-term bounce after yesterday
09/29/08......Should see a bounce, then test, of panic conditions
09/29/08......A bevy of extremes as indices post record readings
09/29/08......A history of plunges in the DJIA
09/26/08......The pricing of assets raises concerns for investors
09/25/08......Short-term guides are cycling into overbought territory
09/24/08......Money continues to flow into safe havens
09/24/08......The "no short" list is not just financials - here or abroad
09/23/08......Volume contraction underscores historically unique moment
09/22/08......Banning short sales has been tried before, unsuccessfully
09/19/08......Bullish factors persist, but intervention is a wild card
09/18/08......We must rally today, or a crash is likely imminent
09/17/08......This is, in a word, chaos - if no rally now, then no precedents
09/16/08......Probability exists for intermediate-term gains, but short-term vol
09/16/08......Intraday, the Panic Button reached historic proportions
09/15/08......Now we're finally starting to see some panic readings again
09/12/08......Despite pockets of concern, the "Panic Button" has not triggered
09/11/08......Volatile conditions aren't triggering same signals as past lows
09/10/08......Short-term guides suggested snapback, but big worries remain
09/09/08......The recent three-day pattern places a lot of import on reaction
09/08/08......Reversal precedents give mixed short-term signals
09/05/08......Exhaustive selling pressure should be good for a bounce
09/04/08......Support can't hold, and it turns into a trend day down
09/04/08......The cash cushion - how much cash is sitting on the sidelines?
09/03/08......Revisiting the most-hated (and loved) stocks in America
09/03/08......Starting to see a weak "oversold on support" setup forming
09/02/08......Weakness before a holiday most often leads to weakness after
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August
08/29/08......More signs that rally of past few days is going to give some back
08/28/08......Price patterns suggest pre-holiday surge may not last
08/27/08......Same conflict exists in the short-term between longs and shorts
08/26/08......Sell-off's low volume might actually be a negative
08/25/08......List of negatives gets a break after the large down day
08/22/08......Latest CoT reports suggest trouble if recent patterns hold
08/21/08......A couple of warning signs give first hints of potential trouble
08/20/08......The NDX should show positive one-week returns, or else
08/19/08......Mid-week reversal theory tested as oversold signals emerge
08/18/08......The S&P is approaching another oversold on support setup
08/15/08......What's driving stocks more - the Dollar or Oil?
08/14/08......Watch for exceptionally low volume, but not low volatility
08/13/08......S&P starting to hit short-term oversold signals
08/12/08......Nasdaq overbought, Gold oversold and S&P in the middle
08/11/08......Not finding much reason to bet against rally just yet
08/08/08......Olympic Games helping to provide a net?
08/06/08......What we need to know about the Dow's string of 2% gains
08/06/08......Market's hold of gains a good sign, but still watch for reversal
08/05/08......Market follows FOMC pattern closely, but watch for reversal
08/04/08......Another down day might help generate oversold into FOMC
08/01/08......The most-hated (and loved) stocks in America
08/01/08......Down days help to alleviate short-term negatives
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July
07/31/08......Positive seasonality is tapering off as August approaches
07/30/08......Impressive rally brings with it short-term overbought readings
07/29/08......We finally get an impressive breadth day
07/28/08......Not getting many buy signals despite the selling pressure
07/25/08......Range contracts as traders take a breath
07/24/08......Short-term negatives take hold, already starting to see oversold
07/23/08......Lack of big positive breadth day is causing some concern
07/22/08......Not much to stay against the current rally attempt
07/21/08......Looking for short-term weakness as price patterns play out
07/18/08......Volume surge on an up day has led to great longer-term returns
07/17/08......Follow through to yesterday's rally has an impressive history
07/16/08......Bank rally, heavy volume suggest continued upside bias
07/15/08......VIX / Treasury ratio spikes to panic levels, new lows surge
07/14/08......Short-term volatility is here to stay for the time being
07/11/08......Looking for a weekend resolution of the Fannie/Freddie mess
07/11/08......Taking a look at major bank failure historical precedents
07/10/08......Smart / Dumb Confidence spread widens to a new extreme
07/09/08......Failure to hold recent lows ushers in few historical precedents
07/08/08......Bank reversal helps oversold rally's prospects going forward
07/07/08......We're oversold on an historic scale, but that may not be enough
07/03/08......Breadth has been so persistently bad that precedents are ugly
07/02/08......Too many folks looking for a bounce, spike in Oil, stop the rally
07/01/08......The intraday reversal should help lead to more short-term gains
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June
06/30/08......The "Panic Button" indicator has still not been pressed
06/27/08......The S&P 500 is headed for its worst June in history
06/26/08......Not eager to buy yet, as we're just not seeing great concern
06/25/08......Yet more positive signs, but watch out for post-Fed reversal
06/24/08......Action in banks, breadth is an odd market development
06/23/08......Still not seeing many short-term pessimistic extremes
06/22/08......Dumb Money drops, but what about the other indicators?
06/20/08......Dumb Money Confidence falls all the way down to 29%
06/19/08......Intermediate-term sentiment is rapidly improving
06/18/08......A Hindenburg Omen has triggered, the last two were great sells
06/17/08......Not trusting any further gains to last
06/16/08......Indicators suggested more short-term lift, now a bit overbought
06/13/08......Selling in Bank shares has been severe on an historic scale
06/12/08......There are some decent oversold signals, but for just a bounce
06/11/08......Four days of bad breadth was historically a good buy signal
06/10/08......The Dollar just staged in largest gain in two years - what next?
06/10/08......Inter-market correlations continue to break down
06/09/08......Market is more likely to reverse mid-week, but no good setups
06/06/08......Action in banking sector looks to be capitulatory
06/06/08......The Unemployment Rate indicator
06/05/08......Rebound sets up some interesting stats for jobs report reaction
06/04/08......BKX Banking Index has gotten hit hard, perhaps too hard
06/03/08......Negatives continue to take their toll, last week's low is looming
06/02/08......The new month starts off with the 2nd-weakest bang of the year
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May
05/30/08......A lackluster end to a choppy month
05/29/08......Follow-through rally brings a hint of overbought readings
05/28/08......Seasonality still positive, but other edges hard to come by
05/27/08......Tech leads market on oversold bounce
05/23/08......Pre-holiday trading not having its usual positive bias
05/22/08......Nasdaq 100 looks to be short-term oversold
05/22/08......We show a correlation matrix showing which countries correlate
05/21/08......Seasonality suggests a bounce at least by end of month
05/20/08......NYSE volume is not what it appears; rare sign of many reversals
05/19/08......Is this a typical bear market rally?
05/19/08......The demand for protection is drying up
05/16/08......Persistent buying pressure is odd given action in the bank sector
05/15/08......A list of negatives makes it difficult to trust the breakout, but...
05/15/08......Rydex assets suggest tech may pause
05/14/08......Rallies into mid-week during option expiry tend to peter out
05/13/08......Short-covering rally? Nah, just another record-low volume day
05/12/08......Implied volatility implodes as some minor overbought signs hit
05/09/08......Outlining a case for more short-term weakness
05/08/08......Banks, bonds decline but S&P holds up...an unusual omen
05/07/08......Negatives finally take hold, now we're oversold on support
05/06/08......Nasdaq / NYSE Volume Ratio gives another minor warning
05/05/08......Big breadth divergence is another minor negative
05/03/08......Will the Dollar disappoint again (and will the Euro shine)?
05/02/08......Still some minor negatives as indices struggle with resistance
05/01/08......Typical post-FOMC reversal turns into a trend day
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April
04/30/08......Market provides an unusual reaction to FOMC decision
04/29/08......Indices just chop around ahead of data and FOMC meeting
04/28/08......Stocks are slightly overbought, but data will be more important
04/27/08......The Barron's Big Money poll isn't much use for forecasting
04/26/08......Gasoline prices have a few factors working for lower levels
04/25/08......The low volume in ETFs continues to be a potential negative
04/24/08......Today's asset rotation may not mean much
04/23/08......Taking a look at how Apple's earnings have impacted the indices
04/22/08......Short-term negative biases abound, then abate as indices decline
04/21/08......Low volume is one of the few potential trouble spots
04/18/08......Various factors point to short-term pullback
04/17/08......Day of consolidation follows yesterday's overbought readings
04/16/08......Stocks, and particularly tech, follow through with a trend day
04/15/08......Technology indices looking better as NDX nears support
04/14/08......It's just a myth that the market gaps more during earnings
04/14/08......Investors' appetites for IPOs has dwindled to nothing
04/11/08......GE foils market's attempt to hold most recent support
04/10/08......Stocks make a little headway, but outlook remains muddled
04/09/08......Indices were not able to follow through on minor buy setup
04/08/08......Some minor indications that we're getting oversold on support
04/08/08......Small businesses are showing a record high level of pessimism
04/07/08......Gap reversal, small range suggest lower prices ahead
04/04/08......April begins with one of the best starts to a month in five years
04/03/08......Weakness on economic releases is typically a bad reason to sell
04/02/08......Typical consolidation of yesterday's gain doesn't clear outlook
04/01/08......Market follows through on bullish setup, scores another 3% day
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March
03/31/08......Short-term pullback is classic so far, but now we need upside
03/28/08......Some negative seasonality here, good test of "pullback" idea
03/27/08......Test of breakout levels will be stocks' next challenge
03/26/08......Short-term enthusiasm suggests some backing-and-filling here
03/25/08......Looking for some consolidation as overbought wears off
03/24/08......Upside follow-through is welcome, but is hitting overbought
03/20/08......Treasury market turmoil a sign that recent uncertainty is historic
03/19/08......Multiple 90% volume days is a rare historical event
03/18/08......Two 3% one-day gains has important historical precedents
03/17/08......Intraday reversal suggests more upside should be ahead
03/14/08......Volatility, bond yields again suggesting low should be near
03/13/08......Gap down opening presents a short-term opportunity
03/12/08......Yesterday's "best gain in five years" is a notable signal
03/11/08......Decade-low Dumb Money Confidence precedes vicious rally
03/10/08......Despite price losses, extremes were few until the closing minutes
03/07/08......We're in a no-man's land under the January closing low
03/06/08......Wicked selling pressure drops us below the January close
03/06/08......Is the Smart Money buying? A look at the Smart Money Index
03/05/08......Upside reversals, bullish setups cannot gain any traction
03/04/08......Tricky tape not giving much follow-through to bullish setups
03/03/08......Fourth straight down months brings with it notable comparisons
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February
02/29/08......Stiff selling pressure brings oversold readings in the short-term
02/28/08......"Overbought, under resistance, in a down-trend" is still a curse
02/27/08......Stocks churn under resistance levels ahead of GDP report
02/26/08......Indices are running into overbought conditions right at resistance
02/25/08......Market attempting mirror image of downside breakout
02/22/08......Study of past volatility contractions suggests false move likely
02/21/08......What the current triangle in the indices may mean going forward
02/20/08......Consecutive-day reversals after big gaps is a new phenomenon
02/20/08......A decade-long extreme in commodity sentiment suggests caution
02/19/08......Once again, it didn't pay to buy into a gap up after expiration
02/15/08......No longer overbought, but we do have some bad seasonality
02/14/08......Overbought conditions, negative seasonality pull plug on rally
02/13/08......Follow-through rally starting to push us into stretched territory
02/12/08......Short-term "breakout" argues for stronger prices still to come
02/11/08......Once again, we receive little in the form of short-term resolution
02/10/08......Over the past few weeks, we've seen panic, a remarkable rebound, and historic volatility
02/08/08......A quiet day that doesn't help resolve much in the short-term
02/07/08......Judging the day's prospects as an inflection point
02/06/08......Afternoon selling spree gives us the much-anticipated retest
02/05/08......Heavy selling pressure ushers in volatility of an historical scale
02/04/08......Market pullback nothing out of the ordinary
02/01/08......Overbought conditions may be briefly overridden by tech merger
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January
01/31/08......Short-term models reaching overbought by the close
01/30/08......Reversal of post-Fed rally got started earlier than normal
01/29/08......Look for mostly meaningless chop ahead of FOMC decision
01/28/08......Looming FOMC decision, earnings reports, add to currents
01/27/08......Why there is too much interest in short interest as an indicator
01/25/08......Shorting into Microsoft-induced gap was a high-probability trade
01/24/08......Rally continues, but now becoming overbought with resistance
01/23/08......Signs of selling exhaustion provide potential fuel for quick rally
01/22/08......Market rebounded from gap in line with prior crashes
01/21/08......Current gap down is on a par with prior crashes ('87 and '01)
01/18/08......Markets still not responding to waterfall-type conditions
01/17/08......What happens when cash is the best asset
01/17/08......Severity of price decline is a on a par with past waterfalls
01/16/08......Big price swings continue to trigger relatively little emotion
01/15/08......Break below support zone finally lifting some complacency
01/14/08......Another lackadaisical trading day with a large point range
01/11/08......Are investors currently under-invested?
01/11/08......Large daily decline was very quite, not triggering s.t. extremes
01/10/08......Signs of pessimism continue to spring up, but rally should fail
01/09/08......By mid-afternoon today, we finally got short-term washout
01/08/08......Taking a look at how long it took for stocks to bottom
01/08/08......Concern among traders picking up, but S&P 1400 should fail
01/07/08......Weighing a recession's impact by asset class
01/07/08......Despite price pressure, small options traders not buying puts
01/05/08......Calls for a recession are growing - what's the impact on stocks?
01/04/08......Morning failure of bullish setup leads to even more pressure
01/03/08......Market is having trouble responding to a positive setup
01/03/08......The AAII sentiment survey is showing signs of too much pessimism, but others are showing the opposite
01/02/08......Indices suffer one of the biggest first-day drawdowns ever
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