The S&P 500 is currently trading down -2.5% and has all the hallmarks of a "trend day", meaning it is unlikely to make any kind of meaningful recovery before the close.

Assuming that's the case, let's look to see if there may be any impact heading into tomorrow's Nonfarm Payroll report:

Not much of an edge there.  Nearly 60% of the time (7 occurrences), the S&P gapped down the morning of the report (the Open Gap column), and it was a coin flip from the open 'til the close.

About the best pattern I can see is that out of the 7 times the S&P gapped down the morning of the report, 4 times that gap marked a short-term exhaustion point and stocks rallied into the close or next day.  2 of the other 3 times, the S&P suffered one more day of selling pressure, then reversed that in the days ahead.  Only one instance (09/07/01), stocks completely failed to mount any kind of snapback.

When the market gapped up on Payroll day, then the S&P did not do well go forward, with one exception.  Out of the 5 occurrences, the next few days were down hard 4 times.  The one exception was the low in March 2009.

There have been four times the S&P closed at at least a two-month low the day before a Payroll report.  Longer-term results were mixed, but three of them led to 1-3 day bounces.  The dates were 09/07/01, 06/07/02, 08/06/04 and 03/07/08.

If the market holds true to its trend-day tendencies, then we should close at or near the day's low today, particularly since most major indices are now trading at fresh multi-month lows.  The best bet for bulls at this point - on a short-term time frame - is a gap down tomorrow morning, as ironic as that sounds.  We should have at least a smattering of oversold signals by that point, plus the tendency to fade from extreme price reactions to major economic reports.

Founder, Sundial Capital Research, Inc.