What:  We will turn Neutral if the S&P 500 cash index trades at 1230.

Why:  There really isn't anything new to go over today that we haven't already discussed.  We're still seeing an abnormally large number of extremes among our indicators, and most of them cannot be easily explained away.  I've seen a few attempts to dismiss the extreme put/call readings due to some huge volume in Citigroup options, but that doesn't cut it - if we remove that one stock from yesterday's trading, then the CBOE Equity-Only Put/Call Ratio would only move from 0.37 to 0.39.  It doesn't change the implications at all, so this weekend's update of the ROBO and LOBO Put/Call Ratios will be exceptionally interesting.  All of these extremes have pushed our longer-term Indicator Score to one of the most-stretched readings in its history, which historically has meant that high-beta stocks were either about to peak or at best under-perform the broader market.  And each time, that meant that the broader market was ticking ever closer to a peak that was going to erase the additional short-term gains.  I see no reason to believe differently this time around, so the biggest question is how long we can continue to gravitate before it happens.  I don't have a good answer for that - the logical time is immediately following option expiration, but this market has not been logical (at least in terms of historical precedents).

What:  We will remain Neutral for now.

Why:  In early January, the Dumb Money Confidence hit 75%, which was another successful "protect your gains" warning sign.  By early February, we went over several studies suggesting we were very close to a good multi-week buy signal, but they just missed triggering.  In the process, there have been some more encouraging signs (such as no overwhelming number of signs that we have seen a major market peak, the advance/decline line at a new all-time high and extreme momentum in small-cap stocks).  The spread between the Smart Money and Dumb Money has moved beyond -40%, the largest negative spread since early 2007, so there are some definite intermediate-term warning signs.  We've been waiting since then for either a surge in speculative activity, or waning momentum.  We appear to be getting the former, with the Dumb Money now at 75% and too many extremes to mention.  If the S&P 500 surges to 1220 or so in the coming day(s), we may move to a modest bearish position for the intermediate-term in response.