What:  We will remain Neutral for now.

Why:  For the first time in a long time, I couldn't find a single topic to update in the section below.  Looking at the recent price pattern in a number of different ways (diamond pattern, chop vs. travel, price reversals vs. average true range, etc.) I could find nothing that led to anything better than random performance.  Even when including the nearness to a 52-week high.  Or increased volume.  Or time of year.  If there was any discernable pattern, I would have to say (very) slight 1-5 day weakness, and (very) slight 1-3 month strength, but that's really stretching things.  Even among all the indicators we watch, there wasn't really much that stood out that we haven't already discussed.  There was another unusual surge in the intraday Cumulative TICK for the Nasdaq, but it wasn't enough to move the STEM.MR Model back to overbought.  Seasonality-wise, the market followed through with its typical pattern, though now things get a bit rougher for bulls, at least according to recent history.  From the 2nd through 9th trading day of May, the S&P has been negative 9 of the last 12 years, with an average maximum gain (+1.1%) about half the average maximum loss (-2.1%).  That's a mild supporting factor for what I mentioned yesterday, which is that given what we've discussed over the past few weeks, if we lose yesterday's bounce and drop below 1180ish on the S&P 500, I'll be looking for 1150.

What:  We will remain Neutral for now.

Why:  In early January, the Dumb Money Confidence hit 75%, which was another successful "protect your gains" warning sign.  By early February, we went over several studies suggesting we were very close to a good multi-week buy signal, but they just missed triggering.  In the process, there have been some more encouraging signs (such as no overwhelming number of signs that we have seen a major market peak, the advance/decline line at a new all-time high and extreme momentum in small-cap stocks).  The spread between the Smart Money and Dumb Money has moved beyond -40%, the largest negative spread since early 2007, so there are some definite intermediate-term warning signs.  We've been waiting since then for either a surge in speculative activity, or waning momentum.  We got the former, with a surge to 75% in the Dumb Money.  But the price momentum has been historic, which usually means even higher prices during the months ahead, and we have not seen much evidence of it waning yet, so it still appears too early to bet against this recovery on a multi-week or multi-month time frame.