Today's Update:  We will remain Neutral for now.

Why:  The focus today will be on reactions to this morning's Payroll report, which came in significantly weaker than expected, driving short-term Treasury yields to new record lows and stocks below yesterday's lows (or very close to it).  When we've seen this kind of reaction in the past, coming off similar conditions, it has usually resulted in at least another day or two of selling pressure (see below), and if we do gap down about where we're indicated to now (around 1114 on the S&P, just below yesterday's low), and we see a lower intraday low after the first hour of trading, then my guess is we'll get that additional weakness and at least challenge the 1100 area yet again in the day(s) ahead.  The good thing for the bulls is that severe reactions (on a closing basis) to Payrolls reports tend to be relatively short-lived affairs as the market focuses on the next big thing, and next Tuesday we do have a FOMC meeting, which often spurs at least a little optimism.  So based on the currently indicated gap, and assuming a lower intraday low after the first hour (a big assumption, granted), I'll be watching for a possible closing of the gap from Monday into early next week.

Today's Update:  We will remain Neutral for now.

Why:  In late May, we looked at quite a few  bullish intermediate-term studies - we got a major surge in pessimism, then several positive breadth thrusts and positive price performance, all in the context of an ongoing bull market.  But after just a brief respite, June 4th's Payroll Report kneecapped the rally attempt and took us to a new closing low.  In the process, we saw very oversold conditions and some give-up among Rydex traders and individual investors.  In early July, we saw even more evidence of excessive pessimism.  The big missing piece, though, was the price action - the S&P was making a clear series of lower highs and lower lows, which muddled the risk/reward of stepping in and buying into those pessimistic conditions.  The market has obviously recovered well from there, and with the advance/decline line making a new all-time high, things are looking brighter for stocks.  The S&P still is flirting with the 1125 area, but much more upside will break the pattern of lower highs we've been mired in since the spring.