Today's Update:  We will remain Neutral.

Why:  Yesterday we touched on several reasons why a dip to start the week should result in higher prices heading into mid- to late-week.  The early gap down didn't last long, as buying pressure came in immediately, then we just kind of petered out the rest of the day.  By the end of it, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) did, technically, close lower on the day for the fifth consecutive session.  This is only the 3rd 5-day losing streak since March 2009 (the others were 6/24/10 and 7/2/10).  In SPY's history, when it suffered 5 straight down days into a Monday, then through Thursday it was up 7 out of 8 times, with a +1.7% average return (the loser was -0.3%).  So, again, some reasons to expect the recent swoon to abate here as we head toward option expiration.

Today's Update:  We will remain Neutral.

Why:  In late May, we looked at quite a few  bullish intermediate-term studies - we got a major surge in pessimism, then several positive breadth thrusts and positive price performance, all in the context of an ongoing bull market.  But after just a brief respite, June 4th's Payroll Report kneecapped the rally attempt and took us to a new closing low.  In the process, we saw very oversold conditions and some give-up among Rydex traders and individual investors.  In early July, we saw even more evidence of excessive pessimism.  The big missing piece, though, was the price action - the S&P was making a clear series of lower highs and lower lows, which muddled the risk/reward of stepping in and buying into those pessimistic conditions.  The market has obviously recovered well from there, and with the advance/decline line making a new all-time high, things were looking brighter for stocks.  But August 11th's knock-down gave us the potential for a failed break of important resistance, and we're back to being stuck in a longer-term trading range.