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Top | Short-term Outlook | Intermediate-term Outlook | Charts | Equity Indicators | Sectors | Commodities
Top | Short-term Outlook | Intermediate-term Outlook | Charts | Equity Indicators | Sectors | Commodities
Intermediate-term
Outlook (1-3 Months)
Risk
Level: 4
Summary:
No change from March 21st.
Active Studies:
03/23:
3 straight large gap up opens
Positive
03/22:
Breadth thrust buy signal
Positive
03/21:
Mini-panic selling washout
Positive
03/09:
Bullishness in "fear trade" currencies
Positive
03/07:
Surge in OEX put/call data Negative
02/08:
Surge in Penny Stock volume Negative
02/08:
No divergence in Advance/Decline line
Positive
02/01:
Low mutual fund cash levels Negative
11/30:
"Best 6 months" after up Sept/Oct
Positive
10/14:
Fed POMO activity
Positive
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Short-term Outlook |
Intermediate-term Outlook | Charts | Equity Indicators | Sectors | Commodities
While volume has been
somewhat weak, and declining every day, there are other signs of strong buying
power, such as breadth and the eagerness of early buyers. The past few days marked
only the 2nd time in nearly 30 years that the S&P 500 gapped up at the open by
1% or more for three days in a row (the other was 11/25/08). There were five other
distinct times when the S&P gapped up 0.75% or more for three straight days,
shown in the table below. The table uses prices
for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), but checking the S&P futures back to 1982, there
weren't any additional instances.
All but one of the
precedents saw some sort of short-term pullback during the next several days.
In the case of the one in 1997, the market rallied for a few days, then dropped
for a week. While each of them saw
some kind of short-term weakness, all of them were also higher a month later, by
impressive amounts. If one would have waited for 3-7 days or so, then
bought and held for a month, the returns would have been about double what's
shown in the table. The only instance where
all three gaps were "unfilled", meaning they didn't trade below the prior day's
close at any point during the day, was 11/5/99, and that was one of the more
positive ones going forward, with the least short-term pullback.
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Short-term Outlook |
Intermediate-term Outlook | Charts | Equity Indicators | Sectors | Commodities
General Equity Market Indicators
Top | Short-term Outlook | Intermediate-term Outlook | Charts | Equity Indicators | Sectors | Commodities
Top | Short-term Outlook | Intermediate-term Outlook | Charts | Equity Indicators | Sectors | Commodities
Currency / Commodity Sentiment
Top | Short-term Outlook | Intermediate-term Outlook | Charts | Equity Indicators | Sectors | Commodities
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