Morning Report for Wednesday, Mar 23, 2011
Previous Report    Print    Archive                                                 Posted 03/23/11 2:30 AM ET by Jason Goepfert

 

 

Top Stories In Sentiment

 

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

 

Prices really haven't gone much of anywhere since Monday's open.  The past few days have seen a kind of buying pressure that's rarely seen, but it's odd because volume has been so low and declining every day.

 

There have only been a handful of other times since 1982 that the S&P 500 has gapped up by 0.75% or more at the open for three straight days.  Each of them preceded some kind of short-term weakness, but also longer-term strength in equities.

 

 

Risk Level:  4 (Moderate-Low)

 

The Smart Money is 50% confident in a rally.

The Dumb Money is 50% confident in a rally.

 

Smart/Dumb Confidence

 (click chart for larger version)

 

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Short-term Outlook (1-5 Days)

 

 

Active Studies:

Nothing is active

 

See a list of retired studies

Risk Level:  5

 

 

Summary:  The major equity indexes didn't do much of anything yesterday.  Prices really haven't moved much at all since Monday's open.

 

At least it was the first day in the past four that we didn't see a large gap.  This was only the 2nd time in nearly 30 years that the S&P had gapped up at the open by 1% or more for three straight days.

 

There were five other times the S&P gapped up 0.75% or more for three straight days (see below).  Each of them indicated some exhaustion in the short-term, but also longer-term strength.

 

That confirms what a couple of the other studies have suggested over the past couple of days.  Namely, mini-panics like last week tend to see a re-test of the low over the next 1-3 weeks, but higher prices thereafter.  And the strong breadth thrust off of the low (three straight days of at least 65% up issues on the NYSE) tend to lead to very positive three-month returns.

 

So we have some decent evidence that we should see some shorter-term weakness, with no more than about a 3% drop below the recent low, then very positive 1-3 month returns.

 

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Intermediate-term Outlook (1-3 Months)

 

 

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Charts Of Interest

 

Study:  S&P 500 Opening Gaps

While volume has been somewhat weak, and declining every day, there are other signs of strong buying power, such as breadth and the eagerness of early buyers.

 

The past few days marked only the 2nd time in nearly 30 years that the S&P 500 gapped up at the open by 1% or more for three days in a row (the other was 11/25/08).

 

There were five other distinct times when the S&P gapped up 0.75% or more for three straight days, shown in the table below.

 

The table uses prices for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), but checking the S&P futures back to 1982, there weren't any additional instances.

 

 

All but one of the precedents saw some sort of short-term pullback during the next several days.  In the case of the one in 1997, the market rallied for a few days, then dropped for a week.

 

While each of them saw some kind of short-term weakness, all of them were also higher a month later, by impressive amounts.  If one would have waited for 3-7 days or so, then bought and held for a month, the returns would have been about double what's shown in the table.

 

The only instance where all three gaps were "unfilled", meaning they didn't trade below the prior day's close at any point during the day, was 11/5/99, and that was one of the more positive ones going forward, with the least short-term pullback.

 

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General Equity Market Indicators

 

Finally, the plurality of bearish (for the market) indicators that we had off and on since mid-December took its toll, as the S&P 500 faltered about 7% from its February highs and briefly turned negative on the year.  This isn't unusual, but it took a lot longer than it usually does when we have that many bearish indicators.  Now, for the first time since September we have more bullish than bearish indicators, though the former aren't yet quite high enough to be considered extreme (which is typically a good buy signal for the broader equity market).

 

More history:    Short-term Score      Long-term Score     Indicators At Extremes

 

Indicators At Extremes

 

 

 

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Sector Sentiment

 

The pullback from the February highs hit some sectors harder than others, like usual, and the hardest hit in terms of overbought/oversold are Housing and Technology.  Utilities were also hit, due to the nature of the Japanese tragedy.  Most of the sectors have bounced since the 3/16 lows, and have a bit further to go before they would reach "maximum" oversold territory.

 

 

See sector breadth charts

 

 

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Currency / Commodity Sentiment

 

Commodities in general have finally seen a moderate pullback, but it hasn't impacted the sentiment numbers too much just yet.  The "soft" commodities have seen sentiment shift the most, becoming more neutral after quite a while in "excessive optimism" territory.  The US Dollar and Natural Gas remain the most-hated among alternative assets.

 

 

See all currency/commodity indicators

 

 

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