How To Use
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When you log in, hover over the My Account link at the top of the page and click "View Subscription Details", or just click here. From that screen, you can either cancel your account or switch it to a different billing frequency. Please note that if you cancel your account, it is effective immediately, so if you have time left on your subscription, you may wish to wait until closer to the renewal date before you cancel.
No, your subscription is intended for one individual only, although you may access it from work and home. If we find that you are in violation of the subscribers agreement, we withhold the right to deny you access to the site and you will forfeit any subscription dues already paid.
No, your subscription is for you alone. Sharing the contents of sentimenTrader among several individuals is a violation of the United States copyright act and you may be subject to legal action, which may include payment for past services based on the number individuals accessing the site under one login. We have site licenses available with discounts for firms with more than one individual.
We usually don't have a problem with this, provided 1) It is done only occasionally and not on a regular, recurring basis and 2) Attribution at all times is given to www.sentimenTrader.com with a hyperlink whenever possible.
There is no one answer to this. We do suggest you take some time and effort on your part to investigate what you may find useful initially and concentrate on those areas. Long-term investors will probably not have any use for the intraday indicators, for example, and others will only find value in the research and commentaries.
Our philosophy is that our work is the most useful when giving contra-trend signals, that is spotting moments of extreme pessimism when the market is in a longer-term uptrend and bouts of excessive optimism when there is a downtrend in force. While excessive optimism can be a sign of an impending market top within a rising market, it is not as consistent as when the trend of the market is down. So we're kind of in-between "trend followers" and "contrarians", though we lean towards the latter.
In the commentaries, we will highlight various models and indicators that we follow, and nearly always they are ones that are posted to the site. We suggest you make note of the ones you find may be useful and check them regularly.
For some general information about the site, we recommend reading the Getting Started page.
We do not recommend you do anything in isolation. This site is meant to help fulfill the sentiment part of a comprehensive trading or investing strategy, which should also include technical and fundamental considerations. Our signals work best when they are in concert with the other disciplines.
No! There is too much on the site, and at times they contradict one another, so trying to following everything will lead to "paralysis by analysis". Not everyone accesses the site every day, as they have a longer-term time horizon. Some may find benefit in doing so; it really is an individual thing and will take some time to find what is right for you.
Our best advice is to spend an hour or two of some downtime and familiarize yourself with the site's content, picking out a few things you think will have some value for your desired time frame. For most, we at least recommend following the Morning Market Comment and the models to give a broad overview of what the stuff on the site is suggesting.
Recently expired studies are kept here. If you don't see something specific that you're looking for, you can always check the comment archives and/or use the Search function found at the top of each page, on the left side bar, or near the bottom of most pages.
Trend-following strategies can work, but they tend to work best for funds with large capital to work with, who have very long time frames and can trade many different markets at the same time. Even so, they often suffer very large drawdowns and have very low winning percentages.
Our tactic is to take a shorter time frame, moving in and out only when the odds appear in our favor. We have found that with sentiment, the best setups are counter to the shorter-term trend, but in concert with the trend on a larger time frame. So, for example, we would be looking to buy when prices have declined and we see signs of excessive pessimism, but preferably that is within an overall healthy market environment and the long-term trend of the market is up.
There are some exceptions to this, when we will go against all trends. Typically, however, we need to see extremely severe conditions for this to happen, with overwhelmingly lopsided readings among our models and indicators, and many historical studies suggesting a positive risk/reward for doing so.
Possibly, but one thing we've found over the years is that people have a very low tolerance for failures of sentiment (or our interpretation of it). Unlike fundamental and technical analysis, which fail consistently on their own, when sentiment fails people tend to give up on it quickly. Unfortunately, nothing in this business is 100%, and we get failed signals sometimes.
Some indicators, such as those from Rydex, have a fairly small base and could be influenced if enough people follow the indicators and then act on those indicators by trading the Rydex funds. We have found no evidence of that yet.
We use several ways to communicate:
Daily Report - This is the "meat" of the comments. It is posted to the site each evening, usually by 7pm EST, and emailed to subscribers only.
Briefs - This is posted to the site and email to subscribers during the day on an ad hoc basis if something major arises.
Twitter - We'll post quick stats, links or other items that may be of sentiment-related interest with no set publishing schedule; it is not "must read" and if you choose to ignore it, no big deal. You can find the Twitter posts here.
Click here to go to a page giving you important information about the models in general.
This is almost always caused by the security settings on your browser. You can try going to the "Content" or "Advanced" tab in the Tools or Options settings in your browser and make sure it is set to show images (it almost always is). Sometimes, this just happens temporarily in some browsers, especially Internet Explorer, and closing out and going back into the site fixes the issue. If it does not work, we recommend trying a different browser if at all possible. The site works best with Internet Explorer and Mozilla Firefox, both of which are free and readily downloaded from the internet.
Most indicators are updated by 6pm EST, except Rydex which isn't updated until later in the evening (usually by 10pm EST). The models are usually updated by 7pm EST. Weekly and monthly indicators are updated as data is released.
We have been operating under the Sundial Capital Research, Inc. name at www.sentimenTrader.com since 2001.
There is an obsession in this business about whether researchers and commentators put their own money on the line when discussing their investment outlook. It's a can't-win scenario - either you lay money on the line and people accuse you of just talking your book (stressing your outlook in the face on contrary evidence), or you don't put money on the line and people accuse you of not having the courage of your convictions.
I (Jason Goepfert) have tried to bridge those conflicts by using a retirement account for investment and trading activity that is tied to the outlooks and opportunities on sentimenTrader. I disclose my positions and weight in the portfolio each day in the daily report, providing transparency as to where I am invested and what biases the information provided in the report may reflect.