sentimenTrader:Getting Started

I hope and trust that you will find your time and money well spent with us. If not, I want to hear from you. If you are not satisfied with our service for any reason, please email me directly, and I will make every effort to get back to you promptly.

The goal of sentimenTrader is to improve your trading and investment returns by increasing your knowledge of, and access to, one of the most important and effective keys to stock price movement - investor sentiment.

Please note that I did not say the "only" key - sentiment analysis is only one part of a complete trading or investing strategy. We feel our analysis should be incorporated into other thoughtful technical and fundamental work, and not be used in isolation.

Why don't we try to present everything? Because we have one unique niche - market sentiment - and feel that you can get more complete technical and fundamental analysis elsewhere.

For the sentiment analysis part of your work, we strive to be the go-to service that you turn to for help. In addition, academic studies have shown that up to 50% of an individual stock's movement is caused by general market forces, an additional 30% is influenced by the sector the stock is in, and only 20% is specific to that stock. We concentrate on the 80% (market and sector).

We have a couple of options if you would like to receive emailed updates from us. A pre-market Morning Report is sent to all subscribers by default. Research Reports are offered free of charge if you wish to receive them, as is the Weekly Summary. To change your preferences, simply click the "Update Email Preferences" link near the bottom of any report you receive from us.

It would be easy to get lost in this site, as it can be a bit like trying to take a drink from a fire hose, so the most important step you can take initially is to be sure of the time frame in which you are trading.

For longer-term investors, who have a time frame of months and more, it usually does not pay to take the shorter-term models and indicators into account right away. For shorter-term traders, it is best to begin with a few of the longer-term indicators and models and work your way down to your time frame.

My best advice is to take some downtime to find a handful of measures that you find worthwhile - do not get caught in information overload by feeling you need to keep tabs on everything! If something that you don't normally follow gives an extraordinary reading, then I will almost always touch on it in one of the comments.

LINK	DESCRIPTION
Daily Overview	This is the "home page" for subscribers. Any important announcements will be listed at the top of this page. It contains a brief short- and intermediate-term summary of our current thoughts, as well as a quick guide to any extremes in our models, indicators and seasonality.
Comments	We use several ways to communicate: Morning Report - This is the "meat" of the comments. It is posted to the site each morning before the open and emailed to subscribers only. Research Reports - These can cover any topic, usually related to sentiment. There is no regular schedule for these. Weekly Summary - This is simply an aggregation of the reports we sent during the week, perhaps helpful to those with a longer time frame or especially busy schedule who do not want a cluttered inbox. Blog - The "Sentiment's Edge" blog is public. It is meant as more of an educational, informal discussion related to sentiment (mostly, but I reserve the right to digress) with no set publishing schedule. If you choose not to read it, no big deal. You can find the blog here. Twitter - Twitter is the new cool kid on the internet. These things often flame out, but there are some good uses for the service. Unfortunately, it has become a playground littered with effluvia such as what color underwear people are wearing, so we use it sparingly. I'll post quick stats, links or other items that may be of sentiment-related interest with no set publishing schedule, but again it is not "must read" and if you choose to ignore it, no big deal. You can find the Twitter posts here.
Indicators	This is the main point of access to reach each of the indicators currently posted to sentimenTrader.com. A summary page is presented, as well as links to a more detailed discussion of each one, with important levels to watch. Once you know which ones you'd like to follow, you can use the Favorites page to save them.
Models	This will take you to a page giving you access to the most recent updates of our four models, as well as important information about the models in general.
Seasonality	Like moon phases on tidal activity, there are forces at work in the equities markets that are not fully understood. This page will give you a glimpse at some of the most consistent biases.
Research	This section will take you to our research area, where we post original, topical sentiment research. This is just a small selection of research believed to be of general interest. Research is presented in the comments, so if you are looking for something in particular, use the search function.
Signal Strength Changes	We use a set of guidelines to determine whether the reward / risk in the general market is tilted to the long, short or neutral side of the market, with our icons adjusting to reflect that bias. These are not trading recommendations, just a quick reference as to what the stuff on the site is suggesting. Sentiment analysis should only be one part of a comprehensive trading/investing strategy.

Once you're familiar with the site and know what you'd like to see, be sure to check out the time-saving links at the top of most pages, which drop down as you put your cursor over them, saving you many steps to get to the charts you want.

Almost all of the indicators and models on our site are bounded by green and red bands.

In every case, if an indicator travels outside of its green band, then that equates with "oversold" conditions, for lack of a better word. When this happens, we typically see prices rise going forward.

When an indicator goes outside of its red band, then that means the indicator is "overbought", which most often leads to a market decline or consolidation.

We have inverted the scales on some indicators (i.e. flipped them upside down) so that an indicator that is overbought is peaking towards the top of the chart, while one that is oversold is scraping along near the bottom of the chart. While it is counter-intuitive for certain indicators, presenting them this way allows us to more easily see how peaks and troughs in the indicators coincide with tops and bottoms in the market.

Below is a sample of our Intermediate-Term Indicator Score, which highlights how we interpret a movement outside of the green and red bands.

As for determining when the indicator has been updated, the date in the "AS OF" field on the Complete List of indicators is the most recent date for which data is available.

The date posted on the charts themselves is the date the chart was updated and posted to the site. Therefore, for data which is released with a delay, the "AS OF" date will not match the date on the chart.

One other thing to note is that if an indicator's or model's title is highlighted, then you can click on it to get detailed background information.

Please note: If a chart (or comment) does not appear when you click on it (all you can see is the title), or if it appears to be "old" data, then press F5 on your keyboard. That should kick-start your browser into loading the most recent data. There are sometimes rare and temporary issues with Microsoft Internet Explorer, so you may want to try another browser like Mozilla Firefox.

The models and indicators that are updated daily are usually updated by 6:00 PM EST each evening unless there is some extenuating circumstance. An exception is the Rydex asset flow data, which is not released until late each evening or early the next morning. The weekly models and indicators are updated by 11:00 am EST every Saturday.

We do not intend our models or portfolio changes to be trading signals for any subscriber.

The models are meant as secondary indicators, not as a trading system unto themselves. Please follow your own methodology and use the models and indicators as additional confirmation. We do not, in any sense, recommend that subscribers place a trade simply based on a model or portfolio change.

If you need to update any of your account details, such as email address or credit card information, you may do so in the "Subscriber Support" section of the links at the upper left of most pages, by clicking on "Update Account".

We take feedback very seriously, so if you have any suggestions for how we could better meet your needs, please feel free to contact me directly.