Welcome to
sentimenTrader!
I hope and trust that you will
find your time and money well spent with us. If not, I want to hear
from you. If you are not satisfied with our service for any reason,
please
email me directly, and I
will make every effort to get back to you promptly.
Our Goal
We want you to
improve your trading and investment returns by increasing your
knowledge of, and access to, one of the more important and effective
keys to stock price movement - investor sentiment.
Please note
that I did not say the "only" key - sentiment analysis is only
one
part of a complete trading or investing strategy. We feel our
analysis should be incorporated into other thoughtful technical and
fundamental work, and not be used in isolation.
Why don't we
try to present everything? Because we have one unique niche - market
sentiment - and feel that you can get more complete technical
and fundamental analysis elsewhere.
For the sentiment analysis
part of your work, we strive to be the go-to service that you
turn to for help. In addition, academic studies have shown
that up to 50% of an individual stock's movement is caused by
general market forces, an additional 30% is influenced by the sector
the stock is in, and only 20% is specific to that stock. We
concentrate on the 80% (market and sector).
Our focus is not "market timing" per
se, but rather risk management. That may be a distinction
without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We
study signs that suggest it is time to raise or lower market
exposure as a function of risk relative to probable reward. It
is all about risk-adjusted expectations given existing evidence.
A note about sentiment in general:
it works best when going with the major trend but against
the immediate trend. For example, "excessive pessimism"
readings will have a very high rate of success at preceding rallies
during long-term bull markets, but will be less accurate during bear
markets. "Excessive optimism" readings will precede
corrections with consistency during bear markets, but will be less
accurate at pinpointing tops in bull markets. We try to wrap
our analysis and studies in that context...but even if we fail to do
that, please remember the above.
Emails
A post-close Sentiment Report is
emailed to all subscribers,
typically by 8pm (almost) every day that U.S. markets are open for
trading. Data Briefs are sent on an ad hoc basis when warranted.
All reports are posted to the website and archived as well.
After subscribing,
please check
your email inbox for two messages:
1. A welcome message from sentimen@sen.sentimentrader.com with the
subject line "Welcome to sentimenTrader!" which reminds you of your
username and password.
2. A confirmation message from jason@sentimentrader.com with the
subject line "sentimenTrader.com's email list: please confirm your
address" which contains a link you will need to click in order to
activate your email address in our email system. Activating
your email address is the only way to receive the Morning Report and
Data Briefs via email, and receive other special announcements.
If you don't see
that email in your inbox, then be sure to check any
spam folders in case it gets routed there.
A Note About Studies
We post a lot of studies in the
Reports. Sometimes, the conclusions from the studies will
conflict with one another on a day-to-day basis, or even on the same
day. And sometimes if the market moves in the direction a
study suggests, it will satisfy the conclusion faster than expected.
This is when the "art" of trading and
investing comes to the fore. We don't trade any studies on a
mechanical basis, but rather use them in a weight-of-the-evidence
approach. A study that gives a solid edge with a large sample
size will definitely influence our outlook, but no study is an
end-all, be-all. We wrap it into a more comprehensive view of
how markets are acting.
Navigating The Site
It would be easy to
get lost in this site, as it can be a bit like trying to take a drink from
a fire hose, so the most important step you can take initially is to
be sure of the time frame in which you are trading.
For
longer-term investors, who have a time frame of months and
more, it usually does not pay to take the shorter-term models and
indicators into account right away. For shorter-term
traders, it is best
to begin with a few of the longer-term indicators and models and work your
way down to your time frame.
My best advice is to take some downtime
to find a handful of measures that you find worthwhile - do not
get caught in information overload by feeling you need to keep
tabs on everything! If something that you don't normally
follow gives an extraordinary reading, then I will almost always
touch on it in one of the comments.
Here is a quick overview of the
navigation:
|
LINK |
DESCRIPTION |
|
Daily
Overview |
This is the "home page" for
subscribers. Any important announcements will be listed at
the top of this page. It contains a brief short- and
intermediate-term summary of our current thoughts, as well as a
quick guide to any extremes in our models, indicators
and seasonality. |
|
Reports |
We use several ways to communicate:
Sentiment Report -
This summary report is
posted to the site each evening after the markets close and emailed to
subscribers.
Data Briefs - These can
cover any topic, usually related to sentiment. There is no regular
schedule for these.
Twitter
- Twitter is the new cool kid on the internet. These things often
flame out, but there are some good uses for the service.
Unfortunately, it has become a playground littered with effluvia such as
what color underwear people are wearing, so we use it sparingly.
I'll post quick stats, links or other items that may be of
sentiment-related interest with no set publishing schedule, but again it is not "must read" and if you
choose to ignore it, no big deal. You can find the Twitter posts
here. |
|
Indicators
|
This is the main point
of access to reach each of the indicators currently posted to sentimenTrader.com.
A
summary page is presented, as well as links to a more detailed
discussion of each one, with important levels to watch.
Once you know which ones you'd like to follow, you can use the
Favorites page to save them. |
|
Models |
This will take you
to a page giving you access to the most recent updates of our
four
models, as well as important information about the models
in general. |
|
Seasonality |
Like moon phases on
tidal activity, there are forces at work in the equities markets
that are not fully understood.
This page will give you a
glimpse at some of the most consistent biases. |
|
Studies
|
Recent
studies that have expired can be found
here. We grade them depending on
how the market performed relative to what the study suggested. |
Once you're familiar with the site and
know what you'd like to see, be sure to check out the time-saving
links at the top of most pages, which drop down as you put your
cursor over them, saving you many steps to get to the charts you
want.
About Our Charts
Almost all of the
indicators and models on our site are bounded by green and red
bands.
In every case, if an
indicator travels outside of its green
band, then that equates with "oversold" conditions, for lack of a
better word. When this happens, we typically see prices rise
going forward.
When an indicator goes
outside of its red band, then
that means the indicator is "overbought", which most often leads to
a market decline or consolidation.
We have inverted the
scales on some indicators (i.e. flipped them upside down) so that an
indicator that is overbought is peaking towards the top
of the chart, while one that is oversold is scraping along
near the bottom of the chart. While it is
counter-intuitive for certain indicators, presenting them this way
allows us to more easily see how peaks and troughs in the indicators
coincide with tops and bottoms in the market.
Below is a sample of
our Intermediate-Term Indicator Score, which highlights how we
interpret a movement outside of the green and red bands.
As for determining when
the indicator has been updated, the date in
the "AS OF" field on the
Complete List of indicators is the most
recent date for which data is available.
The date posted on the charts
themselves is the date the chart was updated and posted to the
site. Therefore, for data which is released with a delay, the
"AS OF" date will not match the date on the chart.
One other thing to note
is that if an indicator's or model's title is highlighted, then you
can click on it to get detailed background information.
If a chart (or comment) does not appear when you click on
it (all you can see is the title), or if it appears to be "old"
data, then press F5 on your keyboard. That should kick-start
your browser into loading the most recent data. There are
sometimes rare and temporary issues with Microsoft Internet
Explorer, so you may want to try another browser like Google Chrome
or Mozilla Firefox.
Update
Times
The models and indicators that are updated daily are
usually updated by 6:00 PM EST each
evening unless there is some extenuating circumstance. An exception
is the Rydex asset flow data, which is not released until late each
evening or early the next morning. The
weekly models and indicators are updated by 11:00 am
EST every Saturday.
Important Note!
We do not intend our models or
portfolio changes to be trading signals for any subscriber.
The models are meant as secondary indicators, not as a trading
system unto themselves. Please follow your own methodology and
use the models and indicators as additional confirmation. We do not, in any sense, recommend that
subscribers place a trade simply based on a model or portfolio change.
If you need to update any of your
account details, such as email address or credit card information,
you may do so in the "Subscriber Support" section of the links.
We take feedback very seriously, so if
you have any suggestions for how we could better meet your needs,
please feel free to contact me directly.
I wish you profitable trading!
Jason Goepfert
President and CEO
Sundial Capital Research
jason@sentimentrader.com
For more interesting and useful
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