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Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

05/21/12 7:15 PM EST

With the best gain in more than two months, the S&P has staged an initial recovery off of a multi-month low. Historically, that bodes well for the next few months, but more questionable activity in the shorter-term.

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The Smart Money is 67% confident in a rally.

The Dumb Money is 33% confident in a rally.

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Equity Market Indicators See all equity indicators »

Prior to the last year, we saw the percentage of bearish (for the market) indicators reach 40% several times. In the past year, it hasn't gotten much higher than 30%, each time coinciding with a period when equities were about to flatten out for 1-3 weeks. We saw that again on March 20th as that percentage reached 29% and stocks have consequently backed off a bit.

More history: Short-term Score Long-term Score Indicators At Extremes

Bearish for equities

* New extreme

* STEM.MR Model - NDX

* Intraday Cumulative Tick - NYSE

* Intraday Cumulative Tick - NASDAQ

* Price Oscillator - S&P

* Price Oscillator - NDX

* STEM.MR Model - S&P

* Put/Call Ratio - Equity Options Only

VIX Transform

Mutual Fund Cash Levels

Bullish for equities

* New extreme

* Rydex % of Sectors w/Assets > 50 Day Avg

Rydex Beta Chase Index

Rydex Bull/Bear RSI Spread

Liquidity Premium - SPY

Stock/Bond Ratio

Put/Call Ratio - Equity De-Trended

Put/Call Ratio - Equity Moving Averages

Put/Call Ratio - Total of Moving Averages

ROBO Put/Call Ratio

TRIN - NASDAQ

Up Issues Ratio - NYSE

Up Issues Ratio - NASDAQ

Up Volume Ratio - NYSE

Up Volume Ratio - NASDAQ

STEM Model

Sentiment Survey - AAII

InsiderScore.com Buy/Sell Ratio

Intermediate-term Indicator Score

Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence

See all equity indicators »

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Stock and Sector Sentiment About stock sentiment »

We're seeing more sectors approach oversold territory with the correction of the past couple of weeks, but they're not moving as quickly as one would think. That's partly due to investors hiding out in more-defensive sectors like Staples and Utilities, which aren't anywhere near oversold yet. Some of the better bottoms of the past few years have come when a broad cross-section of sectors hit oversold territory.

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Most Popular

Charts

Put/Call Ratio - Equity Moving Averages

Down Pressure - S&P

Liquidity Premium - QQQ

InsiderScore.com Buy/Sell Ratio

CoT - 10-Year T-Bond Futures

Rydex Bond Bull Ratio

Public Opinion - Dollar

Public Opinion - Euro

CoT - Euro

Rydex Precious Metals

Sector Breadth - Gold Bugs

Reports

1. Black Swan Indicators Spike Higher 02/17/12

2. S&P Goes 30 Days Into New Year Without A 1% Loss 02/14/12

3. Junk Bond Issuance Sets A Record 02/06/12

4. Big Gain In January Is A Good Sign 01/30/12

5. Coppock Curve "Killer Wave" 09/16/11

Searches

1. Citigroup Economic Surprise Indicator

2. Rydex traders

3. Momentum

4. Citigroup Economic Surprise Indicator

5. Economic surprises

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Index Seasonality See more seasonality data »

May 22 is trading day #16 of the month

(The charts below reflect the last 30 years of history)

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