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Latest Comments
The most current
comment is always at the top
Some Time Away
June 29, 9:00 AM EST......When my
daughter began
having seizures in December, it was a wake-up call to re-organize my
priorities. Through 11 years, we've never taken a family vacation
and other than a few days each November, I've very rarely left the
office for more than an hour or two. If you scroll through the
archives back to 2002, you'll be hard-pressed to find a market day
without comment. That's just unacceptable, so with what's supposed
to be a beautiful week in Minnesota, I'm taking some time off from
comments this week to spend time with my family. I'll still be
watching the market, and if something notable happens I'll get out a
brief comment here or there. Most everything else on the site will
be updated normally.
More...
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Worrying About The Wall Of Worry
June 26, 9:00 AM EST......A piece of
sentiment data that has permeated through trading desks since yesterday
is the latest release of the sentiment poll from the American
Association of Individual Investors (AAII). Their weekly data
shows that individuals have dropped to the lowest level of bullish
opinion since March.
More...
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Intraday Update
June 25, 3:23 PM EST
Three Amigos Pointing South
June 25, 9:15 AM EST......Over the
past few weeks, we've taken a look at a few different indicators that
aren't often reviewed. Given that most of the measures we follow
on the site haven't changed much (other than the shortest-term ones), I
thought it'd be a good time to update a few of the lesser-known ones.
More...
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Intraday Update
June 24, 3:35 PM EST
Technical Signals Go Against Common Wisdom
June 24, 8:30 AM EST......I've seen a
lot of worry since Monday about the idea that we suffered a 90% down day,
the second such occurrence in the past couple of weeks. Different
folks define a "90% day" in their own way, but the concept is usually credited to
Lowry Research and defined as a day when 90% of total volume goes into
issues that were negative on the day, and 90% of all points gained or
lost were lost.
More...
Go To The Archives
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Blog Posts
Somebody Betting On A Bond Rally?
June 24,
2:04 PM EST
Trading News Sentiment
June 17,
2:38 PM EST
Speculators Betting On A Spike In The VIX
June 12,
4:05 PM EST
Be Careful What You're Trading
June 11,
3:32 PM EST
Visit The Blog
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 Sentiment Summary
Our Equity Market Outlook Is:
Short-term:
Neutral
(Since
June 30, SPX 919)
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Why: No notable biases
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Bearish
Inputs
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Bullish Inputs
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* Nothing notable
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* Nothing notable |
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Intermediate-term:
Neutral
(Since
April 9, SPX 843) |
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Why: The long-term trend looks
to be shifting higher, even though the intermediate-term
has been flattening out. As long as we remain
above 875-880 on the S&P, the pattern is positive,
but we expect some trouble as it trades into 940-950...a
breakout above there after the trading range of the past
week should lead to 1000 - 1025. A break below
920ish should lead to a test of the May lows around 880.
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Bearish
Inputs
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Bullish Inputs
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* Smart Money/Dumb Money spread was recently
near the highest levels of the bear market
*
Investors moving back into
funds, stocks
* Corporate
insiders are neutral at best
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* The Coppock Curve gave a
buy signal
* Retail money is
flowing back into stocks
* Consumers are
expecting better times ahead
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Extreme
cash levels
*
March's
"blast off" day was different
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The
trend persistency has been incredible
* Individuals are
holding more cash than stock
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Our
Models Are: |
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Neutral short-term; Long-term models are
slightly overbought,
especially the AIM Model which looks at the change in various
sentiment surveys.
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Short-Term |
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Long-Term |
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Click gauge for chart
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Click gauge for chart
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Click here for a list of all models |
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Equity Market Indicators
See all indicators
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Indicator Scores:
Neutral short-term; Modestly bearish longer-term.
Short-term Score
Long-term Score
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Indicator Groups:
A mixed picture, as most of the groups recover from a confluence of
bearish (for the market) readings.
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Indicators At
Extremes:
In early June, we had 0% of our
indicators showing bullish (for the market) extremes, while 30%
or more were bearish. As the market struggled and declined
since then, we're now getting a more even distribution between
the two. Neither side is currently suggesting a large edge
for the market.
View more history
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Bearish For The Market
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Bullish For The Market
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*
Rydex Bull/Bear RSI Spread
*
Put/Call Ratio - OEX Options Only
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NASDAQ/NYSE Volume Ratio
Liquidity Premium - QQQQ
OEX Determination Index
VIX Transform
OTC Share Volume
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*
STEM.MR Model - S&P
*
Intraday Cumulative Tick - Nasdaq
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Down Pressure - S&P
Price Oscillator - S&P
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* New extreme
See all indicators
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Index Seasonality
July 6th is the 3rd
trading day of the month
Find more equity-market seasonality data
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Disclaimer
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Privacy Policy
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Sundial Capital Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
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