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The Dumb Money is 50% confident in a stock market rally.

The Smart Money is 46% confident in a rally.

Smart/Dumb Confidence

View longer history    More information    Download data

 

  Latest Comments

The most current comment is always at the top

 

Some Time Away

June 29, 9:00 AM EST......When my daughter began having seizures in December, it was a wake-up call to re-organize my priorities.  Through 11 years, we've never taken a family vacation and other than a few days each November, I've very rarely left the office for more than an hour or two.  If you scroll through the archives back to 2002, you'll be hard-pressed to find a market day without comment.  That's just unacceptable, so with what's supposed to be a beautiful week in Minnesota, I'm taking some time off from comments this week to spend time with my family.  I'll still be watching the market, and if something notable happens I'll get out a brief comment here or there.  Most everything else on the site will be updated normally.  More...

 

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Worrying About The Wall Of Worry

June 26, 9:00 AM EST......A piece of sentiment data that has permeated through trading desks since yesterday is the latest release of the sentiment poll from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).  Their weekly data shows that individuals have dropped to the lowest level of bullish opinion since March.  More...

 

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Intraday Update

June 25, 3:23 PM EST

 

Three Amigos Pointing South

June 25, 9:15 AM EST......Over the past few weeks, we've taken a look at a few different indicators that aren't often reviewed.  Given that most of the measures we follow on the site haven't changed much (other than the shortest-term ones), I thought it'd be a good time to update a few of the lesser-known ones.  More...

 

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Intraday Update

June 24, 3:35 PM EST

 

Technical Signals Go Against Common Wisdom

June 24, 8:30 AM EST......I've seen a lot of worry since Monday about the idea that we suffered a 90% down day, the second such occurrence in the past couple of weeks.  Different folks define a "90% day" in their own way, but the concept is usually credited to Lowry Research and defined as a day when 90% of total volume goes into issues that were negative on the day, and 90% of all points gained or lost were lost.  More...

 

Go To The Archives

 

 

   Blog Posts

 

Somebody Betting On A Bond Rally?

June 24, 2:04 PM EST

 

Trading News Sentiment

June 17, 2:38 PM EST

 

Speculators Betting On A Spike In The VIX

June 12, 4:05 PM EST

 

Be Careful What You're Trading

June 11, 3:32 PM EST

 

Visit The Blog

 

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  Sentiment Summary

 

 

 Our Equity Market Outlook Is:

 

 

 Short-term:   Neutral

 (Since June 30, SPX 919)

Why:  No notable biases

 

Bearish Inputs 

Bullish Inputs 

* Nothing notable

* Nothing notable

 

 Intermediate-term:  Neutral

(Since April 9, SPX 843)

Why:  The long-term trend looks to be shifting higher, even though the intermediate-term has been flattening out.  As long as we remain above 875-880 on the S&P, the pattern is positive, but we expect some trouble as it trades into 940-950...a breakout above there after the trading range of the past week should lead to 1000 - 1025.  A break below 920ish should lead to a test of the May lows around 880.

 

Bearish Inputs 

Bullish Inputs 

* Smart Money/Dumb Money spread was recently near the highest levels of the bear market

* Investors moving back into funds, stocks

* Corporate insiders are neutral at best

* The Coppock Curve gave a buy signal

* Retail money is flowing back into stocks

* Consumers are expecting better times ahead

* Extreme cash levels

* March's "blast off" day was different

* The trend persistency has been incredible

* Individuals are holding more cash than stock

 

 Our Models Are:

 

Neutral short-term; Long-term models are slightly overbought, especially the AIM Model which looks at the change in various sentiment surveys.

 

Short-Term   Long-Term

Click gauge for chart

 

 

Click gauge for chart

 

 

Click here for a list of all models

 

Equity Market Indicators

See all indicators

 

Indicator Scores:  Neutral short-term; Modestly bearish longer-term.

Short-term Score     Long-term Score

 

Indicator Groups:  A mixed picture, as most of the groups recover from a confluence of bearish (for the market) readings.

Indicators At Extremes:  In early June, we had 0% of our indicators showing bullish (for the market) extremes, while 30% or more were bearish.  As the market struggled and declined since then, we're now getting a more even distribution between the two.  Neither side is currently suggesting a large edge for the market.

View more history

 

Bearish For The Market 

 

Bullish For The Market 

*  Rydex Bull/Bear RSI Spread

Put/Call Ratio - OEX Options Only

NASDAQ/NYSE Volume Ratio

Liquidity Premium - QQQQ

OEX Determination Index

VIX Transform

OTC Share Volume

 

STEM.MR Model - S&P

Intraday Cumulative Tick - Nasdaq

Down Pressure - S&P

Price Oscillator - S&P

 

 

 

* New extreme

 

See all indicators

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What's Working Now

 

Markets are responding well to these indicators in the short-term (1-5 days) and long-term (generally more than one month).  They are NOT necessarily at an extreme now.

 

 

STOCKS

Down Pressure - S&P

Down Pressure - NDX

Intraday Cumulative Tick - NYSE

Intraday Cumulative Tick - Nasdaq

Up Issues Ratio - 5-Day Average

 

SECTORS

% Of SMH Stocks Above 10-Day Avg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

STOCKS

Dumb Money Confidence

Indicator Score

Rydex Bull Fund Asset Flow

NASDAQ/NYSE Volume Ratio

Rydex % of Sectors with Assets > 50 Day Avg

Sentiment Survey - AAII (4-week moving average)

Put/Call Ratio - Equity De-Trended

Put/Call Ratio - Small Trader Put Purchases

 

SECTORS

Biotech - McClellan Summation Index

Biotech - Rydex Fund Flows

Cons. Discretionary - McClellan Summation Index

Gold Bugs - McClellan Summation Index

Health Care - McClellan Summation Index

Health Care - % Of Stocks > 200-Day Avg

Semiconductors - McClellan Summation Index

Internet - Rydex Fund Flows

Utilities - Rydex Fund Flows

 

BONDS

Sentiment Survey - Consensus, Inc.

 

COMMODITIES

Japanese Yen - Public Opinion

Japanese Yen - Small Speculators

Live Cattle - Public Opinion

Orange Juice - Large Speculators

Gold - Small Speculators

Gold - Rydex Fund Flows

 

 

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Index Seasonality

 

July 6th is the 3rd trading day of the month

 

 

 

 

 

Find more equity-market seasonality data

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