Please click the links
below for some background and
the most recent updates to our models.
STEM.MR:
Shortest-term (1-5 days) (Intraday
snapshot available)
STEM:
Short-term (5-30 days)
Composite:
Intermediate-term (30-90 days)
AIM: Long-term
(> 90 days)
The green and red lines show general bullish
(for the market)
and bearish levels, respectively.
Below is a table
summarizing information about the various models, ordered from the
shortest-term to the longest-term.
|
Model |
Indicators
included |
How Often
Updated |
Time frame |
|
STEM.MR |
Price Oscilator, Cumulative
TICK, VIX, Put/Call, TRIN |
Every 30 minutes |
From intraday to several days |
|
STEM |
Mostly the same as above, but
construction of the model is longer-term |
Every 30 minutes |
A few days to few weeks |
|
Short-term Score |
All the indicators can be found
in the "short-term" section of the table on
this page |
Daily |
A few days to few weeks |
|
Composite |
Sentiment
surveys, Proprietary versions of the CoT, P/C and open
interest P/C ratios, volatility indices, breadth ratios,
TRIN, Several un-published indicators |
Daily/Weekly |
5, 10 and 21
day MA are used to represent different time frames |
|
AIM |
Investor's
Intelligence, AAII, Market Vane and Consensus sentiment
surveys |
Weekly |
Weeks to months |
|
Int.-term Score |
All the indicators can be found
in the "long-term" section of the table on
this page |
Daily/Weekly |
Weeks to months |
|
Smart/Dumb Money Confidence Index |
Mostly the same as above, but
separated between "good" and "bad" market timers, with a
proprietary weighting |
Daily/Weekly |
Weeks to
months |
As a reminder, these models are not meant
to be used as trading signals. Rather, they should be used as
secondary filters for your current methodology. We use terms like
"signals" and "long" or "short" to make it clear where the models stand,
not to give the impression we are entering trades based on these
indications.
By the nature of sentiment extremes, these
models go against the current trend for the most part. For
experienced traders, trying to pick tops and bottoms may be fruitful, but
for most it is dangerous unless very strict risk control is used.
These models are not designed to pick a top or a bottom on any time frame
- they are designed to show the current state of sentiment and give odds
of a potential change in trend. Under no circumstances would we recommend someone trade against the current trend unless that is part of
one's tested methodology.
