sentimenTrader:Models

Please click the links below for some background and the most recent updates to our models.

The green and red lines show general bullish (for the market) and bearish levels, respectively.

Below is a table summarizing information about the various models, ordered from the shortest-term to the longest-term.

Model	Indicators included in construction of model	Data collection time scale	Time frame and potential use
STEM.MR	Price Oscilator, Cumulative TICK, VIX, Put/Call, TRIN	Every 30 minutes	From intraday to severaldays, trade contrary to extremes
STEM	Mostly the same as above, but construction of the model is longer-term	Every 30 minutes	A few days to few weeks
Short-term Score	All the indicators can be found in the "short-term" section of the table on this page	Daily	A few days to few weeks
Composite	Sentiment surveys, Proprietary versions of the CoT, P/C and open interest P/C ratios, volatility indices, breadth ratios, TRIN, Several un-published indicators	Daily/Weekly	5, 10 and 21 day MA are used to represent different time frames. Shorter-term traders should focus on 5-day average
AIM	Investor's Intelligence, AAII, Market Vane and Consensus sentiment surveys	Weekly	Weeks to months. Best are bearish reading in bullish environment (SP500 40 week ma is rising)
Int.-term Score	All the indicators can be found in the "long-term" section of the table on this page	Daily/Weekly	Weeks to months.
Smart/Dumb Money Confidence Index	Mostly the same as above, but separated between "good" and "bad" market timers, with a proprietary weighting	Daily/Weekly	Weeks to months.

As a reminder, these models are not meant to be used as trading signals. Rather, they should be used as secondary filters for your current methodology. We use terms like "signals" and "long" or "short" to make it clear where the models stand, not to give the impression we are entering trades based on these indications.

By the nature of sentiment extremes, these models go against the current trend for the most part. For experienced traders, trying to pick tops and bottoms may be fruitful, but for most it is dangerous unless very strict risk control is used.

These models are not designed to pick a top or a bottom on any time frame - they are designed to show the current state of sentiment and give odds of a potential change in trend. Under no circumstances would we recommend someone trade against the current trend unless that is part of one's tested methodology.

Sundial Capital Research, Inc. 12527 Central Avenue NE, Suite 165 Blaine, MN 55434