NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment
APPLICABLE TIME FRAME(S):
01/31/13......Investment managers are leveraged to the long side for the first time ever
09/21/12......An Average NAAIM Active Investment Manager Is Now 95% Net Long
08/30/12......NAAIM Active Investment Managers Have Become Extremely Net Long The Stock Market
07/27/12......In The NAAIM Survey, Active Investment Managers Refuse To Go Net Short
06/11/12......Newsletter Writers Continue To Recommend Short Positions
From the website of the National Association of Active Investment Managers:
NAAIM member firms who are active money
managers are asked each week to provide a number which represents
their overall equity exposure at the market close on a specific day
of the week, currently Wednesdays. Responses can vary widely as
indicated below. Responses are tallied and averaged to provide the
average long (or short) position or all NAAIM managers, as a group.
200% Leveraged Short
This is a contrary indicator, meaning that excessive bullishness among managers is bearish for the market and vice-versa.
The history of this survey is relatively short, however currently we use a level of 80% to be representative of an excessive net long position and 20% to be excessively net short.
We also show a "confidence" in the lower panel of the chart which is taken from the standard deviation of survey responses. This allows us to see how much variance there is among the managers - the less variance there is, the more unanimity of opinion, and ostensibly the stronger the signal.
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