NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment
APPLICABLE TIME FRAME(S):
INTERMEDIATE
UPDATE SCHEDULE:
Weekly
REPORTING DELAYS:
None
RECENT STUDIES:
01/31/13......Investment managers are leveraged to the long side for the first time ever
09/21/12......An Average NAAIM Active Investment Manager Is Now 95% Net Long
08/30/12......NAAIM Active Investment Managers Have Become Extremely Net Long The Stock Market
07/27/12......In The NAAIM Survey, Active Investment Managers Refuse To Go Net Short
06/11/12......Newsletter Writers Continue To Recommend Short Positions
EXPLANATION:
From the website of the National Association of Active Investment Managers:
NAAIM member firms who are active money
managers are asked each week to provide a number which represents
their overall equity exposure at the market close on a specific day
of the week, currently Wednesdays. Responses can vary widely as
indicated below. Responses are tallied and averaged to provide the
average long (or short) position or all NAAIM managers, as a group.
Range of Responses:
200% Leveraged Short
100% Fully Short
0% Cash or Hedged to Market Neutral
100% Fully Invested
200% Leveraged Long.
Data collection issues that may affect the statistical significance
of this data include:
Use of a single, composite number for each adviser may not
accurately represent the market view of a manager who has short term
and long term strategies that are providing conflicting signals or a
manager who uses both contra-trend and trend following strategies
for different portfolios.
Investment Styles very widely among managers participating in this
survey. They may include managers that trade very frequently and can
switch long and short positions daily. Other managers stay fully
invested at all times and only change allocations among market
segments or sectors. Still others trade around core positions and
only a portion of their portfolios change, but that portion could
potentially go from long to short very quickly.
Sample size: Although the number of participating managers, known as
NAAIM Trend Setters, is steadily growing the sample size is not
large and therefore may be less reflective of actual market
conditions.
GUIDELINES:
This is a contrary indicator, meaning that excessive bullishness among managers is bearish for the market and vice-versa.
The history of this survey is relatively short, however currently we use a level of 80% to be representative of an excessive net long position and 20% to be excessively net short.
We also show a "confidence" in the lower panel of the chart which is taken from the standard deviation of survey responses. This allows us to see how much variance there is among the managers - the less variance there is, the more unanimity of opinion, and ostensibly the stronger the signal.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers)
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