sentimenTrader Blog


2017-03-27 | Jason Goepfert | Comments

The prolonged period of low volatility ended last week, which we took a look at a couple of times last week. Now we’re looking at a large gap down in the S&P 500 futures, which hasn’t happened since November 9 (and June 24 prior to that). Let’s take a look at other times the futures […]

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2017-03-23 | Eric Brown | Comments

Currently, there are 9 Stock indicators at Pessimistic Extremes and 47 Stock indicators at Optimistic Extremes. The tables below display stock market indicators that are at Very Optimistic, Extremely Optimistic, Very Pessimistic or Extremely Pessimistic levels. Note: These tables contain only indicators from the Stocks section of the site. For the tables below, you can click through to each chart by […]

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2017-03-15 | Eric Brown | Comments

Currently, there are 7 Stock indicators at Pessimistic Extremes and 46 Stock indicators at Optimistic Extremes. The tables below display stock market indicators that are at Very Optimistic, Extremely Optimistic, Very Pessimistic or Extremely Pessimistic levels. Note: These tables contain only indicators from the Stocks section of the site. For the tables below, you can click through to each chart by […]

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2017-03-10 | Jason Goepfert | Comments

The Nonfarm Payroll report came in better than expected, and even better than that, the consensus knee-jerk analysis is that it was good enough to show growth, but not so good as to raise the probability of more severe rate increases. Whether that’s actually the reason or not, stock futures are rising and showing decent […]

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2017-03-06 | Eric Brown | Comments

Currently, there are 6 Stock indicators at Pessimistic Extremes and 47 Stock indicators at Optimistic Extremes.

The tables below display stock market indicators that are at Very Optimistic, Extremely Optimistic, Very Pessimistic or Extremely Pessimistic levels. Note: These tables contain only indicators from the Stocks section of the site. For the tables below, you can click through to each chart by clicking on the Chart name.

Pessimistic Extremes

Chart Last Close Last Update Sentiment
Number of IPOs
9.0
2017-02-28
Penny Stock Share Volume
73731000.0
2017-01-31
Penny Stock Dollar Volume
28327000.0
2017-01-31
Rydex Energy Services Assets
24.5
2017-03-03
Rydex Europe Assets
3.6
2017-03-03
Small Spec Index Position
-2.96
2017-02-28

Optimistic Extremes

Chart Last Close Last Update Sentiment
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
-49.0
2017-03-03
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
88.0
2017-03-03
% Showing Excess Pessimism
0.0
2017-03-03
% Showing Excess Optimism
38.0
2017-03-03
VIX
10.96
2017-03-03
VIX Term Structure
0.77
2017-03-03
VXN (Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index)
11.77
2017-03-03
SKEW Index
133.4
2017-03-02
Fidelity Funds Breadth
93.0
2017-03-03
Risk Appetite Index
86.0
2017-03-02
Equities as % of GDP
0.79
2016-09-30
Small Business Optimism
105.9
2017-01-31
NASDAQ 100 Combo Hedgers Position
-17832900000.0
2017-02-28
DJIA Hedgers Position
-29439.0
2017-02-28
DJIA Mini Hedgers Position
-58878.0
2017-02-28
DJIA Combo Hedgers Position
-12253800000.0
2017-02-28
Russell 2000 Mini Hedgers Position
-26298.0
2017-02-28
Odd Lot Purchase Percentage
66.8308
2017-03-02
NAAIM Exposure Index
102.1
2017-03-01
Mutual Fund Cash Level
3.1
2017-01-31
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
4.3
2017-01-31
Retail Money Market Ratio
2.56
2017-02-06
NYSE Available Cash
-208130.0
2017-01-31
Penny Stock Transaction Volume
5475.0
2017-01-31
Rydex Ratio
69.0
2017-03-03
Rydex Money Market %
19.0
2017-03-03
Rydex Total Bear Assets
126.7
2017-03-03
Rydex Total Bull / Bear Ratio
11.5
2017-03-03
Rydex Banking Assets
84.0
2017-03-03
Rydex Biotechnology Assets
338.1
2017-03-03
Rydex Consumer Products Assets
304.4
2017-03-03
Rydex Electronics Assets
82.0
2017-03-03
Rydex Financial Services Assets
76.1
2017-03-03
Rydex Technology Assets
79.3
2017-03-03
Rydex Telecom Assets
34.1
2017-03-03
Smart Money Confidence
23.0
2017-03-03
Dumb Money Confidence
72.0
2017-03-03
Hedge Fund Exposure
0.634
2017-03-02
McClellan Summation
753.0
2017-03-03
Conference Board – Stocks
22.0
2017-02-28
University of Michigan – Stocks
60.0
2017-02-28
% Showing Excess Optimism-Pessimism Spread
0.38
2017-03-03
QQQ Open Interest Ratio
2.0487
2017-03-03
CNN Fear Greed Proxy
81.0
2017-03-03
Fund Flow – Combined Domestic
3439.0
2017-02-22
Medium-Term Risk Levels
8.0
2017-03-03
Rydex Total Leveraged Bear Assets
44.3
2017-03-03

2017-03-01 | Jason Goepfert | Comments

As the rally not only holds but builds during the day, and with the recent pattern of closing at or near the high of the day, it looks like stocks will finally break the streak of more than 50 days without a 1% move, up or down. We’ve looked at streaks like this before, with […]

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2017-03-01 | Jason Goepfert | Comments

With relief about President Trump’s speech last night (or whatever other excuse you’d like to insert), stock futures are once again pushing to new all-time highs. And while there are some holdouts, many sentiment measures are also pushing multi-year or multi-decade records. The latest release of the Investor’s Intelligence survey shows the percentage of bullish […]

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2017-02-21 | Eric Brown | Comments

Currently, there are 7 Stock indicators at Pessimistic Extremes and 56 Stock indicators at Optimistic Extremes.

The tables below display stock market indicators that are at Very Optimistic, Extremely Optimistic, Very Pessimistic or Extremely Pessimistic levels. Note: These tables contain only indicators from the Stocks section of the site. For the tables below, you can click through to each chart by clicking on the Chart name.

Pessimistic Extremes

Chart Last Close Last Update Sentiment
OEX Put/Call Ratio
44.0
2017-02-17
Penny Stock Share Volume
73731000.0
2017-01-31
Penny Stock Dollar Volume
28327000.0
2017-01-31
Rydex Energy Services Assets
26.9
2017-02-17
Rydex Europe Assets
4.5
2017-02-17
Rydex Japan Assets
2.8
2017-02-17
Small Spec Index Position
-3.32
2017-02-14

Optimistic Extremes

Chart Last Close Last Update Sentiment
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
-42.0
2017-02-17
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
70.0
2017-02-17
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
85.0
2017-02-17
% Showing Excess Pessimism
2.0
2017-02-17
% Showing Excess Optimism
42.0
2017-02-17
QQQ Optix
80.0
2017-02-17
VIX
11.49
2017-02-17
VXN (Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index)
12.31
2017-02-17
SKEW Index
141.4
2017-02-16
QQQ Liquidity Premium
-25.0
2017-02-17
Fidelity Funds Breadth
93.0
2017-02-17
NYSE High/Low Ratio
90.0
2017-02-17
NASDAQ High/Low Ratio
88.0
2017-02-17
Risk Appetite Index
90.0
2017-02-16
Equities as % of GDP
0.79
2016-09-30
Small Business Optimism
105.9
2017-01-31
NASDAQ 100 Combo Hedgers Position
-18204800000.0
2017-02-14
DJIA Hedgers Position
-27393.0
2017-02-14
DJIA Mini Hedgers Position
-54786.0
2017-02-14
DJIA Combo Hedgers Position
-11233500000.0
2017-02-14
Russell 2000 Mini Hedgers Position
-57592.0
2017-02-14
Odd Lot Purchase Percentage
67.6959
2017-02-16
NAAIM Exposure Index
95.9
2017-02-15
Mutual Fund Cash Level
3.0
2016-12-30
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
4.11
2016-12-30
Retail Money Market Ratio
2.79
2016-12-26
NYSE Available Cash
-179194.0
2016-12-30
Penny Stock Transaction Volume
5475.0
2017-01-31
Mutual Fund Flow (with ETFs)
11500.0
2017-02-15
Rydex Ratio
57.0
2017-02-17
Rydex Beta Chase Index
13.3
2017-02-17
Rydex Money Market %
21.0
2017-02-17
Rydex Total Bear Assets
135.4
2017-02-17
Rydex Total Bull / Bear Ratio
10.0
2017-02-17
Rydex Banking Assets
76.2
2017-02-17
Rydex Biotechnology Assets
318.5
2017-02-17
Rydex Consumer Products Assets
306.0
2017-02-17
Rydex Financial Services Assets
57.3
2017-02-17
Rydex Leisure Assets
48.2
2017-02-17
Rydex Technology Assets
77.0
2017-02-17
Rydex Telecom Assets
22.0
2017-02-17
Rydex Transportion Assets
65.6
2017-02-17
Smart Money Confidence
30.0
2017-02-17
Dumb Money Confidence
72.0
2017-02-17
Hedge Fund Exposure
0.431
2017-02-16
McClellan Summation
764.0
2017-02-17
Conference Board – Stocks
23.1
2017-01-31
% Showing Excess Optimism-Pessimism Spread
0.4
2017-02-17
QQQ Open Interest Ratio
2.2679
2017-02-17
DIA Open Interest Ratio
1.8023
2017-02-17
IWM Open Interest Ratio
3.0333
2017-02-17
CNN Fear Greed Proxy
82.0
2017-02-17
Fund Flow – Combined World
4678.0
2017-02-08
Short-Term Risk Levels
6.0
2017-02-17
Medium-Term Risk Levels
8.0
2017-02-17
Rydex Total Leveraged Bear Assets
54.9
2017-02-17

2017-02-14 | Eric Brown | Comments

Currently, there are 4 Stock indicators at Pessimistic Extremes and 51 Stock indicators at Optimistic Extremes.

The tables below display stock market indicators that are at Very Optimistic, Extremely Optimistic, Very Pessimistic or Extremely Pessimistic levels. Note: These tables contain only indicators from the Stocks section of the site. For the tables below, you can click through to each chart by clicking on the Chart name.

Pessimistic Extremes

Chart Last Close Last Update Sentiment
Penny Stock Share Volume
73731000.0
2017-01-31
Penny Stock Dollar Volume
28327000.0
2017-01-31
Rydex Energy Services Assets
40.0
2017-02-13
Rydex Europe Assets
4.3
2017-02-13

Optimistic Extremes

Chart Last Close Last Update Sentiment
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Spread
-47.0
2017-02-13
Short-term Optimism Index (Optix)
73.0
2017-02-13
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
87.0
2017-02-10
% Showing Excess Optimism
42.0
2017-02-13
SPY Optix
81.0
2017-02-13
DIA Optix
83.0
2017-02-13
VIX
11.07
2017-02-13
VXN (Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index)
12.31
2017-02-13
QQQ Liquidity Premium
-31.0
2017-02-13
Fidelity Funds Breadth
95.0
2017-02-13
NYSE High/Low Ratio
98.0
2017-02-13
NASDAQ High/Low Ratio
93.0
2017-02-13
Risk Appetite Index
91.0
2017-02-09
Equities as % of GDP
0.79
2016-09-30
Small Business Optimism
105.8
2016-12-30
Speculators Combo
84.0
2017-02-07
NASDAQ 100 Combo Hedgers Position
-19084100000.0
2017-02-07
DJIA Hedgers Position
-28854.0
2017-02-07
DJIA Mini Hedgers Position
-57707.0
2017-02-07
DJIA Combo Hedgers Position
-11593600000.0
2017-02-07
Russell 2000 Mini Hedgers Position
-57051.0
2017-02-07
Odd Lot Purchase Percentage
66.3749
2017-02-10
NAAIM Exposure Index
96.3
2017-02-08
Mutual Fund Cash Level
3.0
2016-12-30
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
4.11
2016-12-30
Retail Money Market Ratio
2.79
2016-12-26
NYSE Available Cash
-179194.0
2016-12-30
Penny Stock Transaction Volume
5475.0
2017-01-31
Rydex Ratio
56.0
2017-02-13
Rydex Money Market %
21.0
2017-02-13
Rydex Total Bear Assets
149.1
2017-02-13
Rydex Banking Assets
77.0
2017-02-13
Rydex Biotechnology Assets
310.1
2017-02-13
Rydex Consumer Products Assets
305.1
2017-02-13
Rydex Financial Services Assets
57.1
2017-02-13
Rydex Leisure Assets
49.8
2017-02-13
Rydex Technology Assets
75.0
2017-02-13
Rydex Telecom Assets
23.7
2017-02-13
Rydex Transportion Assets
67.3
2017-02-13
Smart Money Confidence
26.0
2017-02-13
Dumb Money Confidence
73.0
2017-02-13
Hedge Fund Exposure
0.602
2017-02-08
Conference Board – Stocks
23.1
2017-01-31
% Showing Excess Optimism-Pessimism Spread
0.37
2017-02-13
QQQ Open Interest Ratio
2.2946
2017-02-13
Fund Flow – ETF Total
15186.0
2017-02-01
Fund Flow – ETF Domestic
12675.0
2017-02-01
Fund Flow – Combined Total
15046.0
2017-02-01
Fund Flow – Combined Domestic
11769.0
2017-02-01
Short-Term Risk Levels
6.0
2017-02-13
Medium-Term Risk Levels
8.0
2017-02-13

2017-02-10 | Jason Goepfert | Comments

It seems at the moment as though we’ve entered another phase of the Nihilism Rally.

20170210_qqq_nihilism

Almost everything we’ve looked at in recent weeks has suggested a pause at best, and yet we continue to reach new highs. Nothing matters. At least not the “somethings” that we monitor.

At the risk of adding yet another match to the studies that are going up in flames, the Nasdaq 100 trust (QQQ) is doing something unusual today. It’s on track for its 5th-straight high on abnormally low volume. Each of the new highs has come on volume that is at least 25% below its average for the past year.

20170210_qqq_chart

The table below shows how QQQ performed following its precedents. Returns were weak, no surprise there, with really only one occurrence where it managed to rally almost uninterrupted going forward, in 2010.

20170210_qqq_table

We always focus on the risk versus reward, and over the medium-term, it was skewed heavily to the downside. We can see that the maximum risk tended to outweigh the maximum reward on average and for almost all of the occurrences, especially over the next month.

20170210_qqq_rr

I hate to say “for what it’s worth”, but for what it’s worth, this is another negative for the prospects of sustaining this breakout.


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