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Weekend Reading
TradingEdge Weekly for Jun 12 - risk-on breakdown, VIX spike, inflation shifts unfavorable

TradingEdge Weekly for Jun 12 - risk-on breakdown, VIX spike, inflation shifts unfavorable

The Risk On/Off Indicator has plunged alongside a massive 39.7% VIX spike and unfavorable inflation shifts. While near-term risks are elevated, historical data suggests this volatility is ultimately buyable.
2026-06-12 at 15:00:00 PDT
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Kaeppel's Corner
Inflation is shifting to unfavorable for stocks

Inflation is shifting to unfavorable for stocks

The market environment just changed somewhat, and not for the better. Rising inflation causes great uncertainty, and the stock market hates uncertainty. PPI and CPI figures are now officially in "unfavorable" territory. Does this mean stocks are doomed? Not necessarily. But the odds have shifted. Details herein.
2026-06-11 at 10:30:00 PDT
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SentimentEdge report
Gold haircut is testing a lot more than patience

Gold haircut is testing a lot more than patience

Gold's 24% drawdown from record highs and extreme panic in gold miner breadth have reached historic extremes. While central bank buying provides structural support, historical data shows these signals offer no reliable edge for timing rebounds or further declines.
2026-06-11 at 10:00:00 PDT
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ModelEdge report
Nonfarm Payroll Beat

Nonfarm Payroll Beat

A massive nonfarm payroll beat historically triggers a transient Nasdaq relief rally, while broad commodities underperform. Within 1 to 4 weeks, equities fade into chop as gold catches a structural bid.
2026-06-10 at 10:00:00 PDT
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Kaeppel's Corner
What a massive 1-day VIX spike implies for stocks

What a massive 1-day VIX spike implies for stocks

The VIX recently registered a 1-day spike of almost 40%, reflecting a rapid increase in fear amongst jittery investors. Does a one-day change in the VIX have any meaning going forward? To answer that question, we (what else?) analyzed the history of previous large 1-day "spikes."
2026-06-09 at 10:30:00 PDT
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SentimentEdge report
When the fear gauge swings

When the fear gauge swings

A VIX 20-day historical volatility spike above 120, with the VIX above 20 and the S&P 500 near its 52-week high, has triggered 11 times since 1998. After similar events, stocks recovered over the medium term more often than not, but the path was punishing and standard hedges offered little protection.
2026-06-09 at 10:00:00 PDT
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Kaeppel's Corner
Its time to put Healthcare back on the radar

Its time to put Healthcare back on the radar

The Healthcare sector has been a significant laggard during the bull market of recent years. But no trend lasts forever. Sector insiders are decidedly bullish, and several other indicators suggest investors should be paying attention to this down-and-out sector. Details herein.
2026-06-08 at 10:30:00 PDT
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ModelEdge report
A significant downward shift in the Risk On/Off Indicator

A significant downward shift in the Risk On/Off Indicator

The Risk On/Off Indicator plunged over 25% in three days, severely skewing the S&P 500's 1-month risk/reward profile to the downside. With the Market Environment composite dropping to 3, capital preservation is key.
2026-06-08 at 10:00:00 PDT
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Weekend Reading
TradingEdge Weekly for Jun 5 - Breadth divergence, hedge unwinding, shrinking ERP, and post-surge outlook

TradingEdge Weekly for Jun 5 - Breadth divergence, hedge unwinding, shrinking ERP, and post-surge outlook

The S&P 500 hits record highs despite historically weak market breadth and evaporating hedges. While concentrated "Weekend at Bernie's" tech flows mask internal rot, powerful macro and seasonal momentum support the long-term bull market.
2026-06-05 at 15:00:00 PDT
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