SentimenTrader Blog


2020-02-21 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

The Nasdaq Composite suffered a 2 standard deviation loss on Friday, soon after it had closed at an all-time high; Professional money managers have increased their U.S. equity exposure, with above-average risk tolerance; Put/call open interest ratios are high even as volume ratios are low; Hedgers sold more ag, gold, and sugar

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2020-02-21 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

Running behindAs the S&P 500 recently hit record highs, fewer of its stocks have kept up. Over the past three months, fewer than 40% of them managed to show a return that was higher than the index itself. In the past 15 years, there was only one date - and not a good one - when so few stocks beat the S&P when the index was hitting a 52-week high.There has been a big cluster of these days lately. Below, we can see how many days in the past 3 months showed fewer than 50% of stocks beating the ...

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2020-02-21 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

If you don't work in the finance/investment industry, I'm going to let you in on a little secret. A secret that all financial marketers know, but the un-initiated do not know. At any given point in time, there are valid reasons to be both bullish AND bearish. The trick to being a good financial marketer/newsletter writer (getting sales, popularity, fame, retweets) is:Pick 1 side of the market. Do not flip flop. ONLY present the arguments that support your bullish/bearish stance. Hide any ...

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2020-02-20 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

Over the past 3 months, fewer than 40% of S&P 500 stocks have beaten the index, one of the lowest amounts in 15 years; The U.S. dollar has had an excellent start to 2020, with a gain of more than 3%; It's also very overbought; Lots of Nasdaq 100 and Swiss stocks have hit 52-week highs

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2020-02-20 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

Dollar is no bug for goldThe dollar has a big impact on the price of gold, with a rising dollar being a headwind to rising gold prices. But not lately.Over the past 3 months, gold has managed to rise along with the buck. The rolling 3-month correlation in their daily price moves has traditionally hung in negative territory, especially since 2002. Now, it has climbed to the highest since 2016.Over the short- to medium-term, it was a better sign for the dollar than it was for gold (or the euro ...

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2020-02-20 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

Here’s what I’m looking at:Building PermitsThe stock market continues to rally. Sentiment is high, momentum is extreme, etc. But one of the things that the stock market has going for it, at least for a longer term basis, is the fact that the U.S.' fundamentals are still ok. Housing, a key leading sector for the U.S. economy, continues to improve.Building Permits are up more than 25% over the past 7 months, which makes this a positive factor for the Macro Index.When Building Permits jumped ...

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2020-02-19 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

According to the University of Michigan, U.S. households are extremely confident that stocks will rise over the next year, with a record number of them 100% confident; Gold is rising along with the dollar, pushing their 3-month correlation close to positive; The Nasdaq looks like 1999 over the past 100 days (and a lot of other times, too); The S&P keeps setting records

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2020-02-19 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

6 weeks of speculationSince early January, options traders have been aggressively betting on a continued ramp higher in stocks. It’s mostly paid off, and they keep pressing. Each week that goes by without a pullback, traders become more aggressive, and by some measures, they’ve never been more exposed.They’ve been spending heavily on that opinion. With the surge in call buying, their total outlay has exceeded more than $7 billion in premiums paid each of the last two weeks. That’s far beyond ...

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2020-02-19 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

Here’s what I’m looking at:Tech rallyWithout a shadow of a doubt, the stock market's rally has been driven by tech. The NASDAQ Composite, NASDAQ 100, and S&P 500 tech sector have surged since October, prompting bears to compare today vs. historical melt-ups that were followed by crashes (e.g. "today is just like 1999"). But as I've said before, the problem with overlapping 2 charts on top of eachother is that you tend to see what you want to see. If you're bearish, you're always going to ...

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2020-02-18 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

Over the past 6 weeks, options traders have bought a record number of speculative call options, even accounting for protective put purchases; In the past month, high beta stocks have dropped while low volatility ones have jumped 5%; The University of Michigan survey shows a record % of consumers are 100% sure of a rally; Euro optimism is very low

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