SentimenTrader Blog


2019-12-13 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

The net percentage of 52-week highs minus 52-week lows on the NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges hit a 6-month high; Over-the-counter penny stock trading volume plunged in November; Hedgers keep selling coffee and platinum; The MSCI All World and NYSE Composite indexes are breaking out for the first time in years

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2019-12-13 | Jason Goepfert | Study

On both the NYSE and Nasdaq, the percentage of securities hitting a 52-week high far outpaced those falling to a 52-week low. The differential was the most positive in more than 6 months.See this report for more detail.

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2019-12-13 | Jason Goepfert | Study

The U.S. stock market was among the first to breakout to new all-time highs this year. And now amidst a stream of positive trade war developments, indices that were more beaten down by the trade war (e.g. emerging markets) are also making new all-time highs.Both the MSCI All World Index and the NYSE Composite Index have hit multi-year highs for the first time in well over a year. These breakouts have been positive for the S&P 500 over the next year.See this premium note for more detail.

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2019-12-13 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Insiders show diverging sentimentIn recent quarters, corporate CFOs have become more optimistic after a long time expecting declining conditions. At the same time, their bosses (CEOs) have continued to edge further into cautious territory. For CFOs, they're nearing their first quarter of net optimism in years.When we combine CFO and CEO optimism into a ...

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2019-12-13 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

With global stocks rallying on trade war news, here's what I'm looking at:Breakouts, new highs, breadth thrustThe U.S. stock market was among the first to breakout to new all-time highs this year. And now amidst a stream of positive trade war developments, indices that were more beaten down by the trade war (e.g. emerging markets) are also making new all-time highs. For example, the MSCI ACWI Index, which includes emerging and developed markets, has broken out:When this index made a new 2 ...

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2019-12-12 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

Surveys of CEOs and CFOs show still-cautious sentiment, though CFOs are close to becoming optimistic; SPY's volume over the past 2 months is only 63% of its 1-year range; The S&P hasn't had a 1% down day for 45 days; None of our indicators have shown pessimism for the past 3 sessions; Smart Money Confidence is curling up

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2019-12-12 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Smart money’s bet on ‘Gundlach Ratio'Respected bond fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach highlighted his use of a ratio of copper to gold to forecast the future path of interest rates.Currently, smart money hedgers are net long copper while being heavily short gold, something which has led to gains in the copper/gold ratio...and interest rates going back nearly ...

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2019-12-12 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

Here's what I'm looking at:Smart Money ConfidenceThe stock market surged in November, pushing Smart Money Confidence to one of the lowest levels in years. Now that stocks are swinging sideways, Smart Money Confidence is starting to rise a bit. Is this the all-clear sign for stocks?The following table looks at what happened next to the S&P when Smart Money Confidence rose above 0.3, after being low for a prolonged period of time (i.e. a prolonged an incessant rally):As you can see, the S&P's ...

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2019-12-11 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

Bond fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach uses a ratio of copper to gold to forecast interest rates, and currently, smart money hedgers are betting on copper and against gold; More than 30% of financial stocks recently hit a 52-week high, the most in a year; The OECD Leading Indicator is turning up; Stocks have struggled after FOMC meetings

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2019-12-11 | Jason Goepfert | Study

As the WSJ noted, the OECD Composite Leading Indicator is showing signs of stabilization. While it isn't particularly effective at timing market tops, upturns in the OECD Composite Leading Indicator after a long downturn usually marked bottoms in the global economy.When the OECD Composite Leading Indicator turns up for the first time in more than 18 months, the S&P' returns over the next half year were mostly pristine since this typically happened after a recession.See this premium note for ...

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