SentimenTrader Blog


2019-11-20 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

The S&P 500 and VIX normally move in opposite directions but recently their 10-day correlation turned positive for the first time in 6 months; The tech sector has jumped 40% year-to-date, one of the best gains in 65 years, despite declining earnings; The ratio between discretionary and tech stocks is oversold; The index put/call ratio is 3 times higher than the equity ratio

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2019-11-20 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.A bad case of the splitsThe Nasdaq exchange continues to see an abnormally large number of stocks hitting 52-week highs and 52-week lows. More than 3% of securities on the exchange have hit either extreme for a week straight.A couple of times, the Nasdaq continued to power higher after similar setups, recovering from the split with no damage. Those were ...

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2019-11-20 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

Here's what I'm looking at:Sentiment CompositeJason and I have looked at optimistic sentiment in multiple ways recently. I've been thinking about different ways to use them in models, and as you may recall, I tested 8 different sentiment indicators ontop of the unemployment rate model. From those 8 indicators, the following 5 added the most additional alpha:Stock/Bond RatioNYSE HiLo Logic IndexHindenburg OmenMedium-Term Risk LevelsIntermediate Term Optimism IndexPerhaps here's one way of ...

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2019-11-19 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

The Nasdaq has seen 5 straight days with more than 3% of securities at either a 52-week high or 52-week low; It has also suffered 4 straight Hindenburg Omens; The S&P 500 has held above its 10-day average for 29 straight days; So far this year, 71% of days have been above the 10-day average; The GDPNow forecast is plunging; The NYSE has now triggered a Hindenburg Omen

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2019-11-19 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Overbought breakoutsThe worst environments for sentiment indicators are momentum markets. They don’t happen very often, but when they do, sentiment can get stuck. It’s that old trope about “extreme can get more extreme.”It doesn’t happen very often, but it did in 2013 and 2017, and we saw a lot of failures in our indicators. Instead of making excuses or ...

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2019-11-19 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

Here's what I'm looking at:HealthcareWith stock markets around the world trending higher, various sectors of the S&P 500 continue to breakout. For example, the S&P 500 Healthcare sector exceeded its October 2018 high last Friday:Over the past 30 years, such long term breakouts were rare but bullish for the S&P 500 Healthcare sector over the next 6 months.As for the S&P 500, this was still bullish over the next 2 months, despite one of the cases (July 2000) occurring just before a massive ...

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2019-11-18 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

The Dow Industrials broke out to a new high and its Relative Strength Index (RSI) did as well, with its first reading over 75 in over a year; The S&P 500 is up 25% year-to-date but its stocks' operating earnings have declined year-over-year; The S&P held above its 10-day moving average for 28 days

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2019-11-18 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.HiLo is highOver the past week, there have been an increasing number of signs of a “split” market, with many winning and losing stocks. That has caused the HiLo Logic Index to spike for the NYSE and, especially, the Nasdaq.On both Wednesday and Thursday, the Nasdaq triggered double warnings, which as we saw preceded very poor risk/reward ratios for both ...

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2019-11-17 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

With the U.S. stock market at all-time highs, sentiment increasingly frothy and breadth waning, here's my market outlook:Long term risk:reward doesn’t favor bulls. Valuations are high, but valuations can remain high for years before stocks crash.Fundamentals (6-12 months): still bullish because there is no significant U.S. macro deterioration, but this could change IF macro data deteriorates significantly over the next few monthsTechnicals (3-6 months): neutral/bullish (various stock markets ...

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2019-11-16 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

This is Part 2 of a weekly update on the U.S. stock market's long term fundamentals. Part 1 can be found here.  Fundamentals 1-3 years: market timingI don't try to predict the future of the economy. Plenty of very smart people try, and when you add up the successes+failures, the results are usually no better than a 50/50 coin toss. That's why I focus instead on leading economic indicators. Look at what has already happened instead of predicting the future.The economy drives corporate ...

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