This site uses cookies to give you the best possible experience. By continuing to use the site you agree that we can save cookies on your device. Cookies are small text files placed on your device that remember your preferences and some details of your visit. For more information, please read our privacy and cookie policy.
Options data shows that "smart money" traders are increasingly betting against a persistent rise in the VIX "fear gauge". When the VIX Sentiment model is as high as it is now, the VIX almost always declined in the months ahead.
Signup / Login to read this post
In September, investors borrowed more against their stock holdings, as margin debt rose despite losses in equities.
Read more...
VIX is slowly rising as we approach the election in a week. VIX's Term Structure is now in backwardation, which is exactly what happened in the runup to the 2016 election.
Signup / Login to read this post
Over the past 6 months, mergers and acquisitions among oil & gas companies have tailed off enough to reach a 17-year low. Relative to all M&A activity, it's declined to a 20-year low.; In September, investors borrowed more against their stock holdings, despite those holdings losing value. As a result, total margin debt increased to a near-record level, jumping more than 35% from the spring lows.
Signup / Login to read this post
Over the past 6 months, mergers and acquisitions among oil & gas companies have tailed off enough to reach a 17-year low. Relative to all M&A activity, it's declined to a 20-year low.
Signup / Login to read this post
In September, investors borrowed more against their stock holdings, despite those holdings losing value. As a result, total margin debt increased to a near-record level, jumping more than 35% from the spring lows.
Signup / Login to read this post
Over the past 12 months, foreign investors have plowed nearly $200 billion into U.S. stocks.
Read more...
In recent weeks, corn, cotton, and wheat have become overbought with a Relative Strength Index above 70 while also showing high investor optimism.
Signup / Login to read this post
Over the past year, foreign investors have shoveled nearly $200 billion into U.S. stocks, challenging a 40-year high. As a percentage of total market capitalization, though, it's only modestly extreme and is not enough to indicate excessive optimism and lower forward returns.; Last week, the smallest of options traders pulled back on their speculative activity. Call buying was less prevalent, but over the past 10 weeks, it still rivals the most aggressive behavior in 20 years.
Signup / Login to read this post
Over the past year, foreign investors have shoveled nearly $200 billion into U.S. stocks, challenging a 40-year high. As a percentage of total market capitalization, though, it's only modestly extreme and is not enough to indicate excessive optimism and lower forward returns.
Signup / Login to read this post
Signup for our Daily Lite email to receive highlights of our daily report, research and studies.
>Sundial Capital Research is an independent investment research firm dedicated to the application of mass psychology to the financial markets. Sundial publishes the SentimenTrader.com website.
Our focus is not market timing per se, but rather risk management. That may be a distinction without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We study signs that suggest it is time to raise or lower market exposure as a function of risk relative to probable reward. It is all about risk-adjusted expectations given existing evidence.
