SentimenTrader Blog


2019-04-16 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

Low-volume rallyEach of the past three weeks has seen the S&P 500 inch ever closer to a new high. At the same time, investors have grown increasingly comfortable, as volume continues to decline and is now more than 10% below its yearly average.It’s entirely normal for volume to ratchet higher during a panic (like December) and then drop precipitously as stocks recover (January and February). None of that is unusual, and none of it suggests anything about the rally’s prospects.Where it gets a ...

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2019-04-15 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

Stocks have rallied for the past 3 weeks as they approach old highs, and NYSE volume has declined each week, well below its yearly average; The Dow Industrials' McClellan Summation Index is extremely high; Investors have rushed into S&P 500 ETFs over the past 5 weeks; The Summation Index for the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is nearing a record high

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2019-04-15 | Jason Goepfert | Premium

Here's what's piquing my interest so far on tax day.April 15Just because.Breadth ReviewThere was another surge in French stocks hitting multi-month highs to end last week, at nearly 50% of CAC components.That has helped to push its long-term breadth momentum to an extreme.In the U.S., the McClellan Summation for the Dow just hit 1500. It's been tough to maintain that kind of surge.Same with the Nasdaq 100 (it never got this high prior to 2015).Among U.S. sectors, that's also the case for ...

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2019-04-15 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

Technically bullish, fundamentally bearishIn recent weeks, Wall Street analysts have been raising price targets on stocks within the S&P 500. At the same time, they’ve been lowering their earnings estimates.Usually, there is a positive correlation between the two. When there is a divergence like this, it has been a negative for the earnings season. When analysts were fundamentally bullish but technically bearish, though, stocks rose every time.Pro-growthGrowth stocks have been beating value ...

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2019-04-12 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

Wall Street analysts have been favoring technicals, expecting S&P 500 companies to rise in price, over fundamentals, as they are lowering earnings estimates; Growth shares have neared their peak relative to value, which hasn't been a good sign for stocks in general; Extremely low FX volatility has led to big moves in the dollar; Hedgers are long the Nikkei, short the peso

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2019-04-12 | Jason Goepfert | Premium

Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.GapDumb Money Confidence is holding above an extreme of 80%, and buyers were enthusiastic enough to push a pre-market gap more than 0.5% above the prior close. That's only happened five times before, all of which pulled back during the next week.If we try to get a bigger sample size by reducing the size of the opening gap, it's pretty much the same story.If we go the other way and keep the size of the opening gap the same but lower the level of ...

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2019-04-12 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

A sparse new high listThe S&P 500 has been hanging near its former high, but relatively few securities on the NYSE have been able to push above their former peaks. It’s now been 300 days since more than 7% of issues on the NYSE hit a new high, ranking as one of the longest stretches in 50 years. This kind of behavior was almost universally negative prior to the financial crisis. Since then, it has triggered five other times, all leading to positive two-month returns, but it wasn't quite that ...

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2019-04-11 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

While the S&P 500 flirts with a new high, fewer than 4.5% of NYSE issues are hitting 52-week highs; It's been 300 days since more than 7% of issues hit a new high, one of the longest streaks in 50 years; The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose above its 200-day average for the 1st time in 6 months; Crude oil risk is high; There are a lot of optimistic extremes

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2019-04-11 | Jason Goepfert | Premium

Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this potential bearish-engulfing day.Emerging EmergingPretty much every study we've looked at for emerging markets since last fall has been bullish, and those markets continue to plug along. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has now rallied for its 10th consecutive session, the longest in over a year (when trading at a 6-month high, anyway).While an impressive sign of momentum that tended to continue over the next month, it also showed some hints of ...

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2019-04-11 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

Not-so-dumb moneyDumb Money Confidence rose to an extreme in February, yet the S&P 500 has tacked on more than 5% since then, suggesting it’s not so dumb after all. The recent gains in stocks have attracted more of these traders, and their Confidence just surged to a new high – that has been a problem in the past.When Dumb Money has crested and then surged to a new optimistic extreme like it’s done now, stocks struggled mightily for up to the next three months.Upside panic among analystsAs ...

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