200 dma tag
The S&P 500 has tagged its 200 dma after one of the sharpest market crashes in history. Regardless of why stocks are rallying right now ("vaccine hopes"), the simple fact is that the stock market is less volatile above the 200 dma and more volatile below the 200 dma.
When the S&P tagged its 200 dma after crashing more than -20% below its 200 dma sometime over the past 3 months, the S&P usually pushed higher over the next 6-12 months. This happened after the 1929-1932 market crash, the 1937 market crash, the 1973-1974 bear market, and the 2007-2009 bear market:
While the S&P 500 failed to close above its 200 dma yesterday, the S&P 500 total return index is now above its 200 dma:
When this happened after the S&P was in bear market territory sometime over the past 3 months (i.e. -20% below a 1 year high), the S&P rallied further twice and fell even more once: