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Kaeppel's Corner
A strong 2nd quarter for SPX (and what it typically means for stocks)

A strong 2nd quarter for SPX (and what it typically means for stocks)

The S&P 500 registered a strong 2nd quarter for 2026. Historically, this has been an important sign for stock investors. Details herein.
2026-07-02 at 10:30:00 PDT
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SentimentEdge report
Financials are broadening but leadership is not fully confirmed

Financials are broadening but leadership is not fully confirmed

A trend-score model shows the S&P 500 Financial sector expanding in absolute strength and momentum, though relative leadership remains unconfirmed. Historical data suggests a patient, longer-term horizon is required before the group earns a major seat at the table.
2026-07-02 at 10:00:00 PDT
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ModelEdge report
Poor sentiment in the bond market

Poor sentiment in the bond market

Hedge funds are cutting bond exposure close to -40% while the Stock/Bond Ratio reverses from extreme highs. Historically, this contrarian setup fuels a multi-month Treasury (TLT) rally but signals near-term weakness for the S&P 500.
2026-07-01 at 10:00:00 PDT
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Kaeppel's Corner
A surprising number of Risk On signals (and what that typically means)

A surprising number of Risk On signals (and what that typically means)

Investors need to be in a buying mood to sustain a bull market. To measure this mood, we track a variety of "risk on/risk off" indicators. Despite the seeming overextended nature of the stock market's recent advance, a surprising number of these indicators have recently flashed green. Details herein.
2026-06-30 at 10:30:00 PDT
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SentimentEdge report
Crude oil has fallen significantly from its high

Crude oil has fallen significantly from its high

Crude oil fell more than 38% from its 252-day high, reviving macro fears. But after similar deep drawdowns, broad equity indexes did not consistently suffer, while Energy stocks were the more vulnerable area.
2026-06-30 at 10:00:00 PDT
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Kaeppel's Corner
It's time for aggressive traders to revisit GLD

It's time for aggressive traders to revisit GLD

After a massive rally, the gold ETF has sold off almost 30% in just five months. On a trend-following basis, things look bleak. However, based on sentiment and seasonality, it appears that aggressive contrarian traders should be looking closely for an opportunity to play the long side of ticker GLD in the months ahead.
2026-06-29 at 10:30:00 PDT
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ModelEdge report
Dollar dash

Dollar dash

The US Dollar Index fired a powerful momentum thrust, completing an extreme RSI roundtrip to a 13-month high. Despite a brief 2-day pullback, history suggests further near-term dollar strength, building a heavy headwind for commodities.
2026-06-29 at 10:00:00 PDT
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Weekend Reading
TradingEdge Weekly for Jun 26 - unleaded gas bearish, summer rally window, Dow Theory divergence, NYSE breadth risk-off, KOSPI crash & recovery

TradingEdge Weekly for Jun 26 - unleaded gas bearish, summer rally window, Dow Theory divergence, NYSE breadth risk-off, KOSPI crash & recovery

As the S&P 500 enters its historically strong Summer Rally Period, severe breadth divergences—including dual High-Low Logic risk-off triggers—warn of a split market. While long-term trends remain bullish, near-term caution is warranted.
2026-06-26 at 15:00:00 PDT
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SentimentEdge report
Korea's crash was the test but the repair was the signal

Korea's crash was the test but the repair was the signal

South Korea's KOSPI suffered a rare nearly 10% single-day plunge this week. Historical analysis shows strong-trend selloffs with fast repairs point to a constructive short-term outlook for Korean equities and US tech stocks.
2026-06-25 at 10:00:00 PDT
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