SentimenTrader Blog


2019-08-22 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

The stock market continues to bounce within a range. Here's what I'm looking at.Put/Call spikeWhile the stock market rallied more than 0.8% yesterday, the Total Put/Call ratio spiked to the highest level since this pullback/correction began. This is extremely rare because the stock market and the Put/Call ratio often move in opposite directions each day. There is no other historical case in which the Put/Call ratio jumped more than 0.4 while the S&P also rallied more than 0.8%.So let's relax ...

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2019-08-21 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

The riskiest part of the corporate bond market is seeing selling pressure, much more than safer bonds, with junk bonds rated CCC near the widest spreads in a year; The S&P 500 has moved more than +/- 0.75% for 11 out of the past 15 days; World (ex U.S.) mutual funds and ETFs have seen heavy outflows for 12 weeks; The Dow Industrials have seen lopsided buying for 3 out of the past 5 days

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2019-08-21 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Rising and falling togetherThe major sectors within the S&P 500 have mostly been moving in concert, so correlations have risen quickly over the past month. Correlations are also rising among safe-haven assets.When both sets of correlations have been this high in the past, it has generally coincided with times of high anxiety in markets, preceding gains in ...

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2019-08-21 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

The stock market continues to swing back and forth. Here's what I'm looking at:Small vs. large capsSmall cap stocks were relatively weak during the Q4 2018 stock market selloff, and have been relatively weak since February. While the S&P 500 has been trending sideways/higher, the Russell 2000 has been trending sideways/lower.Many market watchers have noticed this over the past few months and expressed concern. The idea is related to breadth: i.e. "in order for the rally to be healthy, small ...

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2019-08-20 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

Correlations among the S&P 500's sectors has jumped, as well as correlation among safe-have assets; The S&P has jumped double-digits, but still can't beat the return on gold; Breadth momentum has turned positive, while longer-term momentum never turned negative; Stocks in the Hang Seng are jumping above their 10-day moving averages

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2019-08-20 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Going nowhereThe most benchmarked index in the world has gone nowhere for over a year and a half. The S&P 500 was just trading at the same level it was at in January 2018, not including dividends. This is not the return for investors, but rather the apathy anyone looking at a price chart would feel.But there are some positive signs, like the fact that it’s ...

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2019-08-20 | Jason Goepfert | Premium

Here's what's piquing my interest as stocks gyrate in what is likely going to be a pattern of low (and lower) volume in the days ahead.Overseas ReboundIn the Hang Seng index of Hong Kong stocks, 90% of them have jumped enough to trade above the 10-day averages. That has preceded some short-term exhaustion lately.But it's worth noting the context. That figure was under 5% within the past week, and more than half the stocks are still trading below their 200-day averages. This suggests a ...

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2019-08-20 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

With the stock market still volatile on a day-to-day basis, here's what I'm looking at:Economic ConditionsThe University of Michigan publishes a Current Economic Conditions Index that asks consumers how they view current economic conditions in the country. The survey includes more than 500 households (not a huge sample size), but the data series itself is not incredibly noisy (as is the case with many sentiment-based economic indicators). As you can see in the chart below, most economic ...

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2019-08-19 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

The S&P 500 has gone nowhere for 1.5 years, an especially long time, especially since it's trading near the top of its range and close to its all-time high; The 10-day Up Volume Ratio became oversold, then there were back-to-back 75% up days; More than 90% of S&P 500 stocks rose on back-to-back days; Dumb Money hit a 100-day low, and bond yields hit an extreme oversold level

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2019-08-19 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

Safe haven heavenFriday provided some relief, but the past few weeks have been rocky for stocks. In response, investors moved aggressively into havens like bonds and gold. The 3-week change in the total return on bonds and gold are so far above that for stocks that it’s neared a 30-year extreme.There were really only three distinct time frames in the past 30 years when this happened - January and November 2008, and again in August 2011. If we relax the parameters to get a larger sample size, ...

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