Economic recovery (continued)
U.S. economic data continues to improve. The Conference Board LEI, which looks at 10 leading economic indicators, is starting to rebound after one of the swiftest declines in more than 60 years:
When the Conference Board LEI jumped more than 0.5% in a month while leading economic indicators tanked over the past year, the S&P's returns were all bullish over the next year. This happened in:
- April 1975: after the 1973-1974 bear market and recession
- June 1980: after the March 1980 bear market and recession
- June-September 2009: after the 2007-2009 bear market and recession:
Analysts were pricing in the end of the world in March when Global Earnings Revisions was at a record low. Now that the economy is recovering, equity analysts are no longer downgrading many companies. The Citigroup Global Earnings Revision Index, which measures the number of equity analysts revisions upgrades and downgrades, is close to crossing above 0 for the first time in over a year.
When this happened in the past, the S&P 500's returns over the next year were mixed. This indicator seems to work better at extremes (e.g. March 2020).