July Week 5 Meets the Stock Market (and Treats it Badly)
IMPORTANT NOTE: The performance results displayed in the original version of this article posted on 7/23 were correct, however the wrong week was referenced in the test.
- All of the data and performance #'s ARE CORRECT
- However, the data and performance #'s are all for THE WEEK AFTER the 5th week of July (i.e., the week ending on the 1st Friday in August ONLY during those years when there is a 5th Friday in July)
The text below has been update to reflect this correction.
In the 71 years starting in 1950, there have been only 30 years with a 5th Friday during July. 2021 will mark the 31st such year. Does this matter? Well, take a look at the numbers below and decide for yourself.
THE WEEK AFTER JULY WEEK 5
The table below displays the weekly price change for the S&P 500 during the WEEK AFTER the 5th full week of July since 1950.
The chart below displays the same information in column format.
The chart below displays results in a cumulative format (the chart includes ONLY those years that have a 5th Friday in July).
Results are summarized in the table below.
SUMMARY
Is the S&P 500 doomed to fall the week ending 8/6/21? Not at all. Still, the results above suggest that traders should go into next week fully prepared to deal with whatever may come.