Largest reversals from a low

Jason Goepfert
2020-03-23
Futures are on track for one of the largest-ever reversals.

After hitting limit-down overnight, futures reversed hard on the introduction of new policies from the Fed. S&P futures lost (way) more than 3% at the low while gaining (way) more than 3% by this morning's high.

If buyers can stick around and notch a positive close, this will mark one of the largest positive reversals since the inception of the futures in 1982.

Below, we can see the other times futures lost at least 3% to set a 52-week low, then reversed to show at least a 3% gain at some point during the session. Only days that ended up with a positive close are included.

This triggered on October 20, 1987.

And July 24, 2002.

And November 13, 2008.

The 2008 instance was clearly a failure, the other two didn't see the low violated for months. Today's close will be important, and we shouldn't violate the low if this is really "it" for the time being.

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