Many consumers (still) expect interest rates to fall
The Conference Board's latest survey demonstrates that more than 25% of consumers still expect interest rates to fall. While this figure has fallen a little in recent months, it is still extremely elevated. Is this a contrarian sign that interest rates will rise?
When there were 4 consecutive months in which this figure exceeded 25%, the 10 year Treasury yield usually increased over the next 3 months:
This was more of a mixed signal for the U.S. Dollar, with no clear bullish or bearish conclusion:
As for the S&P 500, this was mostly a bearish sign over the next 1-3 months since the last 3 historical cases occurred during bear markets (2000-2002 and 2007-2009):