Many overbought tech stocks
U.S. tech stocks' nonstop rally has pushed almost a quarter of the NASDAQ 100's members to overbought levels. Granted, the last time this happened (during this 5 month rally) was not an effective bearish sign at all.
Historical cases in which almost a quarter of the NASDAQ 100's members were overbought were slightly more bearish than average over the next month. But beyond that, strong momentum usually led to more gains over the next 6 months:
The past 5 months have been historic. Such nonstop rallies are rare. We can compare the past 5 months vs. other historical 5 month periods to look for similar rallies. Rallies with a correlation >0.9 led to worse than random returns over the next 1-2 weeks: