Oil's comeback

Troy Bombardia
2020-05-06
Oil surged while gold has languished.

Oil has surged over the past 5 days, possibly due to the rollback of lockdowns across various economies. (Trying to explain each and every movement with a "reason" is counterproductive). Meanwhile, gold has been swinging sideways, causing the oil:gold ratio to jump. This is the oil:gold ratio's largest 5 day increase in history.

Less extreme cases in the past saw oil pullback over the next few weeks:

Whereas gold usually went up in the weeks and months ahead:

And gold consistently outperformed oil over the next few weeks, causing a mean reversion in the oil:gold ratio:

For what it's worth, this usually led to more gains for the S&P 500 over the next year.

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