Rebounding small business optimism

Small business optimism is rebounding as the U.S. economy continues to improve. NFIB Small Business Optimism has almost recovered to where it was before the lockdown in March. 

When NFIB Small Business Optimism surged more than 5% over a 5 month period, the S&P 500 usually pushed higher over the next month as a recovering economy is generally bullish for stocks. The one big exception was in March 2002, when stocks continued to fall despite the fact that the recession was over.

Similarly, this usually led to the Russell 2000 rebounding over the next year as well.