Record Small Business Optimism As Investors Buy The Dip


  • Jason Goepfert

    Jason Goepfert

    Published: 2017-12-13 at 20:08:48 CDT

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.

 

Near-record optimism (again)

Small business owners are showing nearly the highest optimism readings in 45 years, confirming other surveys that are showing somewhere between multi-year to multi-decade extremes in optimism.

High levels in the past led to mixed returns, with the Russell 2000 underperforming the S&P 500. Small value stocks performed the worst going forward, while large growth stocks did the best.

Buy the dip

Investors have been buying intraday dips in 2017 to a record degree. Since the inception of S&P 500 futures, there has never been a time that exceeded what we’ve seen this year, according to a comparison of intraday versus close-to-close changes in the futures.

The only real comparison is 1995, which has come up time and again in studies this year.

FOMC seasonality

The S&P 500 has closed at a 52-week high on the eve of a Federal Reserve decision on interest rates 10 times since the bottom in 2009. It added to its gains 5 times the days of the decision.

For access to the full report, indicators, charts, screens, and Backtest Engine, log in or sign up for a free 30-day trial today.

The post titled Record Small Business Optimism As Investors Buy The Dip was originally published as on SentimenTrader.com on 2017-12-13.

At SentimenTrader.com, our service is not focused on market timing per se, but rather risk management. That may be a distinction without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We study signs that suggest it is time to raise or lower market exposure as a function of risk relative to probable reward. It is all about risk-adjusted expectations given existing evidence. Learn more about our service , research, models and indicators.


Follow us on Twitter for up to the minute analysis of market action.