SPY Streaks And Twitter Updates
For those who don't follow the premium Twitter account, which you have access to if you're receiving this message, following are some of the studies and indicators that have been posted over the last couple of days.
On Wednesday, SPY notched 7 higher closes and a new high, which has led to short-term weakness.
Same goes for times when it rallies for multiple days on below-average volume and tiny intraday ranges.
Longer-term, though, the S&P has been up for the last 6 months. This is just another way of looking at some of the other momentum-based studies we discussed the other day.
In bonds, Bloomberg reported that their clients had greatly expanded their short bets. Their overall net position is now 40% short, the most aggressive bet against the market since 2005. Other times when their clients were 20% net short were pretty good for funds like TLT (but not perfect).
It's odd to see such an extreme reading now when other indicators of positioning, like the Commitments of Traders data, still show speculators heavily long the note and bond futures contracts. That data typically follows the JP Morgan indicator so the fact that they're diverging now makes it harder to place a lot of weight on this sign of pessimism now.
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