Stocks Are Stuck As Turnover Explodes

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.

Stuck exactly in the middle

The S&P ended its first half stuck exactly at the midpoint of its year-to-date high and low.

It’s more typical for stocks to be near the upper or lower end of their range by mid-year. Similar years led to weak returns over the next 1-2 months, but not beyond that.

Turnover trouble

Stocks are seeing a big jump in the dollar value of shares turned over. Among stocks in the S&P 500, the only times the dollar value of volume was this year was approaching the last two bull market peaks. Same for the Nasdaq 100 trust, QQQ.

This is a warning sign of speculative behavior in highly-priced stocks.

Now coffee is really hated

The Optimism Index on coffee has sunk to a lowly 15, a level that is rarely seen in any commodity. Over its history, the Backest Engine shows that coffee rallied over the next month 71% of the time.

Powering up

The 10-day Optimism Index on the utilities fund XLU is now the highest since early 2016.

For access to the full report, indicators, charts, screens, and Backtest Engine, log in or sign up for a free 30-day trial today.

The post titled Stocks Are Stuck As Turnover Explodes was originally published as on on 2018-07-06.

At, our service is not focused on market timing per se, but rather risk management. That may be a distinction without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We study signs that suggest it is time to raise or lower market exposure as a function of risk relative to probable reward. It is all about risk-adjusted expectations given existing evidence. Learn more about our service , research, models and indicators.

Follow us on Twitter for up to the minute analysis of market action.

Not ready to signup up for a free trial yet?

Signup for our Daily Lite email to receive highlights of our daily report, research and studies.

Follow us on Twitter:

Subscribe to our Youtube Channel:

RSS Feed

Subscribe to the Blog RSS feed