Posts tagged as Breadth

Weekly Wrap for Apr 16 - More of the same
2021-04-16 | Jason Goepfert


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NYSE Percentage of New Lows and 200-Day Average Risk-Off Model
2021-04-16 | Dean Christians


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Chinese stocks haven't done this for 5 years
2021-04-15 | Jason Goepfert


The cumulative advance/decline line for China's Shanghai Composite recently hit a 5-year low and hasn't rebounded much.

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In a broad global recovery, China stands out
2021-04-14 | Jason Goepfert


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NYSE Advance-Decline Line Divergence Risk-Off Model
2021-04-13 | Dean Christians


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Percentage of members above the 50-day average risk-off signal

2021-04-12 | Dean Christians


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A recovery like few others
2021-04-12 | Jason Goepfert


More than 90% of stocks in the S&P 500 are trading above their 200-day moving averages.

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Percentage of members above the 50-day average buy signal
2021-04-09 | Dean Christians


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S&P 500 High Low Logic Risk-Off Model
2021-04-09 | Dean Christians


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NYSE High Low Logic Risk-Off Model
2021-04-08 | Dean Christians


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NYSE 52-Week High-Low Ratio Risk-Off Model
2021-04-07 | Dean Christians


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A historic level of tension
2021-04-07 | Jason Goepfert


We're seeing a historic level of tension between extreme sentiment and excellent, broad-based participation in industries and global indexes.

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A global recovery that's almost unmatched
2021-04-06 | Jason Goepfert


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New Low Spike Model
2021-04-06 | Dean Christians


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Important Cyclical Groups Divergence Model
2021-04-01 | Dean Christians


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Percentage of Financial Sector Member Lows Risk-Off Model
2021-03-31 | Dean Christians


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Why Monday was so unusual
2021-03-31 | Jason Goepfert


Earlier this week, the S&P 500 was holding near a high, but with the worst breadth in more than 60 years.

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Financials Relative Strength Low Count Risk-Off Model
2021-03-30 | Dean Christians


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Internal turmoil
2021-03-30 | Jason Goepfert


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Percentage of members above the 10-day moving average buy signal concept
2021-03-29 | Dean Christians


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Weekly Wrap for Mar 26 - Passing the 1-year anniversary with more excesses
2021-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


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This indicator is now giving a warning for stocks
2021-03-25 | Jason Goepfert


For the first time in many months, there are more 52-week lows than 52-week highs among securities on the NYSE.

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Financial Stocks - Oversold in an Uptrend
2021-03-24 | Dean Christians


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New lows tick higher even with historic year-ago comparisons
2021-03-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap for Mar 19 - A few cracks as energy and bonds get hit
2021-03-19 | Jason Goepfert


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Energy Stocks - Oversold in an Uptrend
2021-03-19 | Dean Christians


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Market Breadth Update
2021-03-15 | Dean Christians


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Weekly Wrap for Mar 12 - Value storms back, with a volatile tech sector
2021-03-12 | Jason Goepfert


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EWZ (Brazil) Bollinger Band Buy Signal
2021-03-12 | Dean Christians


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Heavy selling in high-yield

2021-03-11 | Jason Goepfert


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QQQ Bollinger Band Buy Signal
2021-03-11 | Dean Christians


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Still doing the splits
2021-03-09 | Jason Goepfert


There has been a big split among winners and losers in the market, thanks to the influence of SPACs.

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A split market, with a difference
2021-03-08 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap for Mar 5 - Stocks crack along with most everything else
2021-03-05 | Jason Goepfert


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This indicator says the Nasdaq is split
2021-03-05 | Jason Goepfert


The Nasdaq HiLo Logic Index shows many stocks hitting 52-week highs AND lows at the same time, a very split condition.

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A Warning Sign Worthy of Your Attention
2021-03-04 | Jay Kaeppel


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What rising rates mean for market breadth
2021-03-01 | Jason Goepfert


When the yield on 10-year Treasury notes rises from a 1-year low to a 1-year high, internal breadth of the S&P 500 tends to decline.

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Weekly Wrap for Feb 26 - A muddled picture in pretty much everything
2021-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


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A broad breakout in recovery stocks
2021-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


At least 25% of members of recovery sectors like energy, financials, industrials, and materials have just hit a 52-week high.

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TCTM - Composite Confirmation Model Component Signal
2021-02-25 | Dean Christians


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A major breakout in recovery sector stocks
2021-02-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Asia-Pacific Region Global Breadth Update
2021-02-24 | Dean Christians


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What the junk bond market is telling stock market investors
2021-02-24 | Jason Goepfert


The percentage of high-yield junk bonds hitting 52-week highs is overwhelming the percentage at 52-week lows.

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The only weakness in junk is that there is no weakness
2021-02-23 | Jason Goepfert


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Financial stocks break a long streak
2021-02-23 | Jason Goepfert


For the first time in over a year, nearly 30% of financial stocks reached a 52-week high.

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Financial stocks break out, broadly
2021-02-22 | Jason Goepfert


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Tactical Composite Trend Model Update
2021-02-16 | Dean Christians


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Weekly Wrap for Feb 12 - Yet more fervor with odd volume
2021-02-12 | Jason Goepfert


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The best momentum in 7 years
2021-02-10 | Jason Goepfert


More than 80% of stocks in the S&P 500 have held above their 200-day moving averages for 3 straight months now.

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21-Day High-Low % Spread Risk-Off Model
2021-02-10 | Dean Christians


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Long-term momentum continues to roll along
2021-02-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Gold miners have done this 2 times in 5 years
2021-02-08 | Jason Goepfert


The percentage of gold miners above their 200-day moving averages has cycled from above 85% to below 20% in recent weeks.

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Weekly Wrap for Feb 5 - More mania as internals decline
2021-02-05 | Jason Goepfert


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A new high on weaker participation
2021-02-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Stopping at a line in the sand
2021-02-03 | Jason Goepfert


More than 40% of stocks in the S&P 500 have held above their 50-day moving averages, an important threshold.

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A key reversal pushes trends to important junctures
2021-02-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Percentage of Members Outperforming the S&P 500 Index
2021-02-02 | Dean Christians


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Weekly Wrap for Jan 29 - Quick reversal in uptrends
2021-01-29 | Jason Goepfert


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A historic drop in uptrends
2021-01-29 | Jason Goepfert


In a single day, more than 20% of stocks in the S&P 500 moved below their 50-day moving averages.

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A drop in uptrends under heavy selling pressure
2021-01-28 | Jason Goepfert


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What's the Market Message from Stocks in Defensive Sectors?
2021-01-28 | Dean Christians


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The S&P hit a high, but most of its stocks are in downtrends
2021-01-27 | Jason Goepfert


Over the past week, indexes like the S&P 500 have risen to record highs, but more of its stocks are in short-term downtrends than uptrends.

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The ice is cracking
2021-01-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap for Jan 22 - More speculation, and a further recovery
2021-01-22 | Jason Goepfert


More signs of speculative activity in stocks. Overall breadth figures have shown a continued long-term recovery, which bodes well longer-term, but in recent days there have been more oddities triggering.

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Worldwide stock markets ease out of corrections
2021-01-22 | Jason Goepfert


For the first time in more than 200 days, fewer than 20% of major world stock markets are in corrections, down more than 10% from their highs.

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Managing Portfolio Risk with a Composite Market Breadth Divergence Signal
2021-01-21 | Dean Christians


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Despite exuberance, continued signs of long-term recovery
2021-01-21 | Jason Goepfert


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Extreme Momentum in Energy Stocks
2021-01-15 | Dean Christians


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When strong is too strong
2021-01-15 | Jason Goepfert


More than 92% of stocks in the S&P 500 are trading above their 200-day moving averages, one of the highest readings since 1927.

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Why strong might be too strong
2021-01-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Emerging Markets - A Breakout Accompanied by a Surge in New Highs and Rising LEI's
2021-01-13 | Dean Christians


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What's the message from the junk bond market?
2021-01-12 | Dean Christians


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There has been a breakout in breakouts
2021-01-11 | Jason Goepfert


Last week saw a big breakout in stocks hitting 52-week highs, especially in small-cap stocks that make up the Russell 2000.

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Uptrends galore, with a breakout in breakouts
2021-01-08 | Jason Goepfert


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A New All-Time Closing High for The S&P 500 - How Does it Compare to History with Regards to Market Breadth?
2021-01-08 | Dean Christians


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The New Highs List for the S&P 500 Skews Toward Cyclical/Value Groups
2021-01-07 | Dean Christians


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Despite the "reflation trade," fewer Industrials are trending higher
2021-01-07 | Jason Goepfert


The percentage of Industrial stocks trading above their 50-day moving average has dropped below 70% for the first time in months.

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Industrial stocks face headwinds
2021-01-06 | Jason Goepfert


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What internal momentum is saying about stocks
2020-12-31 | Jason Goepfert


Despite indexes and sectors hitting new highs, most index and sector McClellan Oscillators are currently below zero.

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Where we were, where we are, and where we're going
2020-12-30 | Jason Goepfert


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A rally so broad, even the weak are strong
2020-12-21 | Jason Goepfert


The rally in stocks has been so broad that the median sector has 95% of its stocks above their 200-day moving averages.

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Near record uptrends as rally hits the 9-month mark
2020-12-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Breakouts haven't been this good since 2016
2020-12-16 | Jason Goepfert


Over the past week, nearly a net of 10% of securities on the NYSE and Nasdaq hit 52-week highs, the most in 4 years.

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New highs dominate a broad market
2020-12-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Interest rates rise, become golden
2020-12-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Uptrends, uptrends everywhere
2020-12-09 | Jason Goepfert


This week, every industry, sector, and major developed country was in an uptrend as defined by being above their 200-day moving averages.

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Uptrends and records are the norm
2020-12-08 | Jason Goepfert


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Signs of the apocalypse
2020-12-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Small stocks see big momentum
2020-12-04 | Jason Goepfert


The McClellan Summation Index, a measure of breadth momentum, has moved above +500 for the small-cap Russell 2000 index.

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Internal momentum shows good gains
2020-12-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Gold suffers its 1st real test of its long-term trend
2020-12-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Once in a Blue Moon Sentiment and Breadth
2020-11-24 | Troy Bombardia


Something truly rare is happening in financial markets right now. Both sentiment and breadth figures are at multi-year highs (if not multi-decade highs). When this happens, investors and traders split into 2 camps: those who think that stocks will crash (sentiment camp), and those who think that this is only the start of a great bull market (breadth & breakout camp).

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ETF traders leave gold, pushing miners into bear markets
2020-11-20 | Jason Goepfert


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Small options traders come back as buyers press
2020-11-16 | Jason Goepfert


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Breadth resurgence across various sectors
2020-11-13 | Troy Bombardia


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Gold miners haven't had this few uptrends in months
2020-11-12 | Jason Goepfert


For the 1st time since April, fewer than 70% of gold miners are holding above their 200-day moving averages.

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Asian optimism
2020-11-12 | Troy Bombardia


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Fewest gold miners in uptrends since April
2020-11-11 | Jason Goepfert


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More sector rotation and strong rallies on the other side of the world
2020-11-10 | Troy Bombardia


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A broad breakout
2020-11-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Buyers push stocks to yet another surge
2020-11-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Health care stocks haven't done this since January
2020-11-06 | Jason Goepfert


More than 30% of health care stocks surged to a 52-week high, the most since January.

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Health care stocks surge, with a caveat
2020-11-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Tech stocks show returning internal momentum
2020-11-04 | Jason Goepfert


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A couple of days with overwhelming selling
2020-11-02 | Jason Goepfert


Last week, 2 out of 3 days showed historically low Up Volume and Up Issues, rare to see during mostly healthy markets.

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A short-term breadth washout and initial recovery
2020-10-30 | Jason Goepfert


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The ongoing correction and deteriorating momentum
2020-10-30 | Troy Bombardia


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Large one day crash on both sides of the pond
2020-10-29 | Troy Bombardia


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Small caps recovery
2020-10-14 | Troy Bombardia


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The Nasdaq 100 is showing some strong internal buying interest
2020-10-12 | Jason Goepfert


For one of the very few times in 20 years, more than 90% of stocks in the Nasdaq 100 have climbed above their 200-day moving averages.

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Tech stocks see broad, and impressive, recovery
2020-10-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Recovering global equities
2020-10-09 | Troy Bombardia


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Buyers come back in force yet again, nearing a record year
2020-10-08 | Jason Goepfert


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Utility stocks have seen a big internal surge
2020-10-08 | Jason Goepfert


In recent days, there has been a surge in utility sector stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages.

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Rebound in U.S. and tech stocks
2020-10-08 | Troy Bombardia


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The troops are leading the general
2020-10-07 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P 500's Cumulative Advance/Decline Line has broken out to a new high, leading the index itself.

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The troops are leading the general
2020-10-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Brazilian and other emerging market stocks have been hit
2020-10-06 | Jason Goepfert


Breadth in Brazilian stocks, and those in other emerging markets, has suffered in recent months even while the indexes held up.

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Brazilian weakness leading to deep selling in emerging markets
2020-10-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Emerging markets are oversold, and seeing positive surprises
2020-09-30 | Jason Goepfert


Economic surprises in emerging markets have better momentum than in the U.S. just as those stocks become internally oversold.

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Breath thrust as long-term momentum reaches inflection point
2020-09-29 | Jason Goepfert


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Emerging market surprises gain momentum
2020-09-29 | Jason Goepfert


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U.S. breadth recovery and weakening overseas breadth
2020-09-29 | Troy Bombardia


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Energy slips into one of the most-hated sectors of all time
2020-09-28 | Jason Goepfert


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High-yield bond market goes negative
2020-09-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Almost all financial stocks are below their medium-term averages
2020-09-25 | Jason Goepfert


Almost all financial stocks are below their 50-day moving averages for the first time in months. And most are below their 200-day averages, too.

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Most financials lose their medium-term uptrends
2020-09-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Internal momentum shifts for the 1st time in 4 months
2020-09-23 | Jason Goepfert


For the first time since May, there were more 52-week lows on the NYSE than 52-week highs.

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DAX falls
2020-09-23 | Troy Bombardia


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Streak of highs beating lows finally ends
2020-09-22 | Jason Goepfert


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More and more stocks in a downtrend
2020-09-22 | Troy Bombardia


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The Nasdaq finally sees a big positive breadth thrust
2020-09-16 | Jason Goepfert


For the first time in nearly 6 months, there was a big positive thrust in Up Volume on the Nasdaq exchange.

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Days after turning negative, Nasdaq breadth surges
2020-09-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Strong breadth after a massive rally
2020-09-15 | Troy Bombardia


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Modest internal Nasdaq selling triggers leveraged bets
2020-09-14 | Jason Goepfert


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The Nasdaq's internal momentum has been waning
2020-09-14 | Jason Goepfert


Over the past 10 days, the Up Volume Ratio on the Nasdaq has been negative for the first time in nearly 6 months.

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Nasdaq's waning momentum clarifies its analogs
2020-09-11 | Jason Goepfert


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The Nasdaq's momentum bubble is getting pricked
2020-09-10 | Jason Goepfert


For the first time in months, there are signs that the Nasdaq's relentless momentum has become unglued.

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The Nasdaq's momentum bubble gets pricked
2020-09-09 | Jason Goepfert


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NASDAQ's weakening breadth
2020-09-09 | Troy Bombardia


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Sharp drop from an all-time high
2020-09-04 | Troy Bombardia


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NASDAQ's incredible run
2020-09-03 | Troy Bombardia


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The S&P 500 is uncorrelated with...itself
2020-09-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Monster momentum versus poor participation
2020-08-31 | Jason Goepfert


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The most important index in the world set a new high...along with only 1 sector
2020-08-20 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P 500 ended its shortest bear market in history. The pace of gains hasn't been matched by its sectors, with only 1 of them hitting a new high.

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New highs - with asterisks
2020-08-19 | Jason Goepfert


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A tale of two S&P's
2020-08-12 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P 500 Total Return index has hit a new high, but the Equal Weight version of the index is still more than 7% below its own high.

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Indexes soar, but fewer stocks are coming along for the ride
2020-08-04 | Jason Goepfert


Indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are rallying hard, but fewer of their stocks are able to keep up.

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Indexes continue to mask inner turmoil
2020-08-03 | Jason Goepfert


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NASDAQ's extremely low participation
2020-08-01 | Troy Bombardia


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Gold miners' shining moment
2020-07-29 | Jason Goepfert


Every gold mining stock is trading above its 50- and 200-day moving averages and a near-record percentage of them have hit a 52-week high at the same time.

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Gold miners show perfect breadth
2020-07-28 | Jason Goepfert


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Stocks are seeing high optimism during an unhealthy environment
2020-07-28 | Jason Goepfert


Fewer than 60% of countries (and sectors, industries, and stocks) are above their 200-day moving averages, yet Dumb Money Confidence is extremely high.

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Poor environment coupled with high optimism
2020-07-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Many more new highs than lows
2020-07-23 | Troy Bombardia


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Breadth is breaking out
2020-07-22 | Jason Goepfert


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Top 5 stocks mask some underlying issues
2020-07-21 | Jason Goepfert


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Chinese stocks could be rolling over
2020-07-21 | Troy Bombardia


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As Nasdaq indexes rallied, oddities have risen
2020-07-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Energy stocks show another washout
2020-07-14 | Jason Goepfert


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A potential sign of trouble in tech land
2020-07-10 | Jason Goepfert


While major technology stock indexes are hitting new highs, the percentage of those stocks holding above their 50-day averages is falling.

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As tech indexes rally, participation starts to wane
2020-07-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Surge in Chinese & HK stocks
2020-07-07 | Troy Bombardia


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Emerging markets are showing signs of momentum
2020-07-06 | Jason Goepfert


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NASDAQ High/Low ratio
2020-07-03 | Troy Bombardia


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Breadth momentum cools down
2020-06-29 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: Questionable participation, a historic Nasdaq run, consumer attitudes
2020-06-27 | Jason Goepfert


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The last time stocks did this was in the year 2000
2020-06-24 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P 500 traded more than 3% above its 200-day moving average, yet fewer than 45% of its member stocks are above their own averages.

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Similarities between the NASDAQ now and in February
2020-06-24 | Troy Bombardia


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Indexes, and safe havens, rally without bringing members along
2020-06-23 | Jason Goepfert


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Utilities stocks have come back after a sudden surge
2020-06-22 | Jason Goepfert


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There is a battle brewing among industries, sectors, and worldwide indexes
2020-06-22 | Jason Goepfert


Almost all industries, sectors, and worldwide equity indexes are above their 50-day moving averages, but less than half are above their 200-day averages.

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Broad display of medium-term uptrends during long-term downtrends
2020-06-19 | Jason Goepfert


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This is one of the most important markers of a healthy market
2020-06-19 | Jason Goepfert


Most stocks, industries, sectors, and worldwide equity markets remain below their 200-day moving averages, an unhealthy market environment.

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Sentiment vs. breadth
2020-06-19 | Troy Bombardia


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Most stocks, industries, sectors, and world indexes are unhealthy
2020-06-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: Even more speculation as breadth continues to improve
2020-06-13 | Jason Goepfert


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Stock market's abrupt reversal
2020-06-12 | Troy Bombardia


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Short-term breadth is as horrid as longer-term is impressive
2020-06-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Everything is outperforming
2020-06-10 | Troy Bombardia


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Gobs of breadth
2020-06-09 | Troy Bombardia


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Breadth has broken out
2020-06-08 | Jason Goepfert


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This has happened only twice before among markets worldwide
2020-06-08 | Jason Goepfert


Every major worldwide stock index was in a bear market in March, now fewer than 15% of them are. That's happened twice before in 30+ years.

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Worldwide markets, sectors, and industries all recover from bear markets
2020-06-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Summation Indexes show broad-based recovery
2020-06-04 | Jason Goepfert


The NYSE McClellan Summation Index has moved above +500 from below -1000. The Summation Index for bonds and overseas indexes recovered, too.

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Summation Indexes show complete recovery from devastation
2020-06-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Record breadth readings
2020-06-03 | Troy Bombardia


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Over the past 2 weeks, another historic thrust
2020-06-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: Short-term speculation within long-term recovery
2020-05-30 | Jason Goepfert


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A wide spread between trends
2020-05-29 | Jason Goepfert


Almost all stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 50-day averages, but relatively few are above their 200-day averages.

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More 8 week highs
2020-05-29 | Troy Bombardia


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Global breadth
2020-05-28 | Troy Bombardia


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A complete recovery in medium-term trends
2020-05-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Medium term trend breadth
2020-05-27 | Troy Bombardia


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Weekly Wrap: Signs of speculation continue to pop up
2020-05-23 | Jason Goepfert


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This is (not) just like 2009
2020-05-21 | Jason Goepfert


The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving averages is recovering, so we look at other 40-day periods that look similar.

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Recovery in 200-day average breadth shows long-term promise
2020-05-20 | Jason Goepfert


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Indexes across the world haven't done this for 2 months
2020-05-20 | Jason Goepfert


For the first time in 2 months, fewer than half of major world stock markets are in bear markets, trading at least 20% below their 52-week highs.

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Market timers are extremely active
2020-05-20 | Troy Bombardia


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Indexes across the world show the start of long-term recovery
2020-05-19 | Jason Goepfert


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Moving average breadth
2020-05-19 | Troy Bombardia


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Large rally day
2020-05-19 | Troy Bombardia


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Weekly Wrap: Questionable price and breadth action, with a jump in speculation
2020-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


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MACD breadth
2020-05-14 | Troy Bombardia


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Increasing new highs
2020-05-13 | Troy Bombardia


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Not much oomph as the Advance/Decline Line lags
2020-05-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Volatility panic subsides, even with most stocks in downtrends
2020-05-07 | Jason Goepfert


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A 'double' Zweig Breadth Thrust just as we hit the worst six months
2020-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


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Strong breadth in tech, healthcare, and communication services
2020-04-30 | Troy Bombardia


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Recovering breadth
2020-04-28 | Troy Bombardia


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A month after initial surge, energy stocks show record gain
2020-04-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: Mixed sentiment during the continued recovery, with divergent sector momentum
2020-04-25 | Jason Goepfert


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NASDAQ's recovering breadth
2020-04-24 | Troy Bombardia


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Underlying momentum has turned negative
2020-04-22 | Jason Goepfert


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Not everything fell
2020-04-22 | Troy Bombardia


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Falling McClellan Oscillators
2020-04-22 | Troy Bombardia


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Volume flowing into declining stocks
2020-04-17 | Jason Goepfert


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An unequal rally
2020-04-16 | Jason Goepfert


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Stocks struggling as breadth recovers
2020-04-15 | Jason Goepfert


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NASDAQ's "weak" breadth
2020-04-15 | Troy Bombardia


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Another thrust narrowly missed
2020-04-14 | Jason Goepfert


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A 3 week "everything rally"
2020-04-14 | Troy Bombardia


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Weekly Wrap: News flow still horrid, but the buying thrust has been historic
2020-04-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Epic (short term) rally
2020-04-10 | Troy Bombardia


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Breadth is recovering, too
2020-04-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Up more than 20% from lows
2020-04-09 | Troy Bombardia


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Cash is king
2020-04-08 | Troy Bombardia


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Buying interest has been historic
2020-04-07 | Jason Goepfert


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New bull market?
2020-04-07 | Troy Bombardia


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Recovering from under the 200 day average
2020-04-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: Initial signs of a recovery, even with weak breadth and bad economic data
2020-04-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Does weak breadth cancel an 'almost' thrust?
2020-04-03 | Jason Goepfert


Last week's underlying market breadth was strong, but only for 3 days, not a Zweig Breadth Thrust. This week, stocks rallied but with poor breadth.

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Is this rally too weak?
2020-04-03 | Troy Bombardia


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A breadth thrust that wasn't
2020-04-02 | Jason Goepfert


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More volatility
2020-04-02 | Troy Bombardia


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Signs of a thaw in the crisis
2020-03-31 | Jason Goepfert


We take a look at some indicators showing a thaw (or lack thereof) in the crisis. More and more indexes are showing stocks with MACD buy signals.

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Another one for the history books
2020-03-31 | Troy Bombardia


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Weekly Wrap: Historic plunge, compressed stimulus, and massive buying thrusts
2020-03-28 | Jason Goepfert


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A historic 3-day buying thrust is changing sentiment
2020-03-27 | Jason Goepfert


The past 3 sessions have seen a record skew in positive stocks and volume. Our CNN Fear & Greed proxy model is curling higher after extreme pessimism.

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MACD buy signals - continued
2020-03-27 | Troy Bombardia


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Change in short term trend
2020-03-27 | Troy Bombardia


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Historic thrust exceeds other post-crash rallies
2020-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


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McClellan indicators show negative momentum is easing
2020-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Another surge as Dow nears 20% threshold
2020-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


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A buying binge of historic proportions
2020-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


The last two days have seen extremely heavy buying interest, with at least 80% up volume days. Stocks in the euro zone are giving MACD buy signals.

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Buy signals
2020-03-26 | Troy Bombardia


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Back to back buying thrust
2020-03-25 | Jason Goepfert


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HiLo Logic Index suggests the wash out is about done
2020-03-25 | Jason Goepfert


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A day when everybody went in
2020-03-25 | Jason Goepfert


The TICK shows that more than 60% of stocks traded on an uptick at the same time, a record high. Up volume on Tuesday was overwhelming.

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Everything is rallying
2020-03-25 | Troy Bombardia


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Signs of a surge
2020-03-24 | Jason Goepfert


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TICK shows record buying pressure
2020-03-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Market overview: history in the making
2020-03-14 | Troy Bombardia


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Let's assume the worst
2020-03-12 | Jason Goepfert


If we assume the worst, that we're in a bear market and recession, we can see the average path. Fewer than 15% of small caps are in uptrends.

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One of the most unique moments in market history
2020-03-11 | Jason Goepfert


So far, stocks are tracking the other time trading was halted in 1997. Almost all stocks on the German DAX are now oversold.

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What I'm looking at - bullish percent, U.S. recession, historic volatility, historic overseas selling
2020-03-11 | Troy Bombardia


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90% up day
2020-03-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Wholesale selling pressure
2020-03-10 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - rally ahead, new lows breadth, Put/Call, Treasuries
2020-03-10 | Troy Bombardia


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A(nother) week for the ages
2020-03-07 | Jason Goepfert


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All-in...and then all-out
2020-03-06 | Jason Goepfert


The Dow Industrials has seen a cluster of days with every member rising or falling. On the NYSE, too, many days are seeing extremes in breadth.

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What I'm looking at - down days, cyclicals vs. defensives, NAAIM, Russia
2020-03-06 | Troy Bombardia


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A dead-cat bounce (?) amid near-record volatility
2020-03-05 | Jason Goepfert


Despite multiple 4% rally days, Up Issues and Up Volume has been mediocre with no 90% up days. The 7-day range in the S&P is getting historic.

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Fewer than 40% of S&P stocks above 200-day average
2020-03-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Big drawdown after new high in Advance/Decline Line
2020-03-04 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - sentiment, Put/Call spikes, Treasury yields plunge, breadth reversal
2020-03-03 | Troy Bombardia


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What a week
2020-03-02 | Jason Goepfert


The Nasdaq Composite is the only "big four" index to hold above its 200-day average. Our CNN Fear & Greed proxy model fell to 0%.

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A week for the ages
2020-02-29 | Jason Goepfert


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An extreme in extremes
2020-02-28 | Jason Goepfert


This week has seen one of the fastest-ever declines from an all-time high. Breadth metrics for S&P and NDX stocks are hitting historic extremes.

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What I'm looking at - breadth for the S&P, NASDAQ, and Dow, stocks vs ETFs, stocks vs bonds, VIX spike and S&P's weekly drawdown
2020-02-27 | Troy Bombardia


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Traders are showing get-me-out behavior
2020-02-27 | Jason Goepfert


This week,, we've seen a level of selling pressure that has rarely been matched. Fewer than half of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day average.

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Energy washout
2020-02-27 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - New Home Sales, sharp pullback, oversold breadth, safe haven sentiment
2020-02-27 | Troy Bombardia


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Extreme 2-3 day selling pressure
2020-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Bulls' nightmare week
2020-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


The past 2 days have seen a historic selloff in stocks, cycling from new highs to multi-month lows. This week saw back-to-back 90% down days.

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What I'm looking at - breadth (from multiple angles), VIX spike, volume spike
2020-02-26 | Troy Bombardia


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Warnings spike as complacency ends
2020-02-25 | Jason Goepfert


Technical warning signs have piled up over the past month. The Nasdaq 100 has relieved its overbought condition for the first time in 3 months.

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What I'm looking at - volatility is back, breadth, tech plunge, gold:silver ratio
2020-02-25 | Troy Bombardia


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Warnings spike as streaks end
2020-02-24 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - breadth warnings, USD's drop, gold's rally
2020-02-22 | Troy Bombardia


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Stocks can't keep up...and a dirty little secret
2020-02-21 | Jason Goepfert


A record number of S&P 500 stocks are falling behind the index itself. How to be a successful newsletter writer - don't ever be wrong!

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What I'm looking at - Building Permits, USD, MACD buy signals
2020-02-20 | Troy Bombardia


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Market overview: tech and growth stocks surge
2020-02-15 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - standard deviations, tech breadth, relative strength, USD
2020-02-14 | Troy Bombardia


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Less greed and more warnings
2020-02-13 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - new highs, job openings, VIX, economic surprise
2020-02-13 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - grind higher, Put/Call, rally's distance, S&P 500 breadth
2020-02-12 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - growth vs. value, stocks vs. commodities, Hindenburg Omen, Shanghai Index
2020-02-11 | Troy Bombardia


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Market & fundamentals overview: the rally continues
2020-02-08 | Troy Bombardia


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Half Of Nasdaq Stocks Are In Bear Markets
2020-02-07 | Jason Goepfert


Half of the stocks on the Nasdaq are in bear markets, and nearly 70% are in corrections. The S&P 500 hasn't had a 7% drawdown in a year.

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What I'm looking at - sentiment, McClellan Summation, new highs, liquidity premium
2020-02-06 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - emerging markets, % of stocks in a correction, copper, oil producers
2020-02-05 | Troy Bombardia


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Sentiment Is Normalizing As Technical Warnings Trigger
2020-02-04 | Jason Goepfert


Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence shows sentiment is starting to normalize. The Hindenburg Omen is triggering again.

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What I'm looking at - ISM, Hindenburg Omen, oil, semiconductors, China
2020-02-04 | Troy Bombardia


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'Big Four' Indexes Register Warnings As Sentiment Recedes
2020-02-03 | Jason Goepfert


All 'big four' equity indexes have triggered technical warning signs. Our Optimism Index for stocks is pulling back from an extreme level.

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Market & fundamentals overview: the long awaited pullback
2020-02-02 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - emerging markets, utilities breadth, AAII, Taiwan
2020-01-30 | Troy Bombardia


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Split Markets As Volatility Spikes
2020-01-30 | Jason Goepfert


The market is split, with the HiLo Logic Index rising above 3. Volatility has jumped, with the VIX and VXO spiking 50%.

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What I'm looking at - utilities, sector breadth, Hang Seng, copper's plunge
2020-01-30 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - split breadth, sudden crash, VIX jump, copper's crash, gap down
2020-01-28 | Troy Bombardia


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Market & fundamentals overview: the overdue pullback?
2020-01-25 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - continued low volatility, Bollinger Bands, AAII
2020-01-23 | Troy Bombardia


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An Extreme - And Protracted - Stretch Of Optimism
2020-01-21 | Jason Goepfert


There has been an extreme number of indicators showing optimism over the past month. More than 25% of S&P 500 stocks are overbought.

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What I'm looking at - Cass Freight Index, strength of the trend, more breadth, Put/Call
2020-01-16 | Troy Bombardia


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5-Year High In Bull Markets Amid Deteriorating Fundamentals
2020-01-16 | Jason Goepfert


More than 85% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day averages. There is a high and rising number of stocks with declining operating earnings.

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The Market "Un-Splits" As Momentum Is Relentless
2020-01-10 | Jason Goepfert


The HiLo Logic Index shows an un-split market, and momentum has helped stocks hit new all-time highs more than 25 times in 3 months.

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What I'm looking at - relentless rally, bullish percent index, recession probabilities, abandoning utilities
2020-01-10 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - Medium Term Volatility, sentiment, jumpy VIX, NASDAQ breadth, palladium
2020-01-09 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - more MACD signals, economic policy uncertainty, Baltic Dry Index, copper:gold
2020-01-08 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at: MACD breadth, time extreme, precious metal's momentum
2020-01-07 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at: breadth thrusts, financial conditions, USD, copper
2020-01-03 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - 2019 vs 2018, equity Put/Call, Value Line, breadth surge, AUD
2019-12-24 | Troy Bombardia


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Near-Record Levels Of Optimism
2019-12-23 | Jason Goepfert


Dumb Money Confidence has spiked while Smart Money is retreating.Near-record optimismA year ago, the “dumb money” was the most bearish in 20 years. Now, a year later, they’re the 2nd-most optimistic, barely eclipsed by a few days in April 2010. Indicators focused on the “smart money” are near ...

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What I'm looking at - sentiment, LEI, Hong Kong volatility, strong momentum, Mexico surge
2019-12-20 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - new highs, smart money/dumb money, emerging markets, optimism, bond Optix
2019-12-19 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - ex U.S. breakouts, Europe, CNN Fear & Greed, commodities, high yield bonds, breadth, put/call
2019-12-18 | Troy Bombardia


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Net New Highs On NYSE And Nasdaq Hit 6-Month High
2019-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - breakouts, new highs, breadth thrusts, equity put/call, and Pound's surge
2019-12-13 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - OECD, advance-decline line, VIX, NASDAQ models + sentiment indicators
2019-12-11 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - HiLo, coffee, Sweden PMI, AAII and blow-off top
2019-12-06 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - Titanic Syndrome, U.S. breadth, overseas breadth, biotech, VIX jump, seasonality
2019-12-04 | Troy Bombardia


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Looking At A Potential Risk Failure
2019-12-03 | Jason Goepfert


We're seeing potential failure in some warning signs, as financial conditions ease.Failed warnings…maybeDue to extremely high optimism across a broad array of indicators, our  Medium-Term Risk Level has been elevated for a few weeks. And yet, the S&P 500 is higher now than when risk first ...

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What I'm looking at - Intermediate Term Optix, New Home Sales, small caps breadth, large caps breadth, gold volatility
2019-11-27 | Troy Bombardia


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A Cluster Of Warnings
2019-11-22 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Cluster funkIf we focus on one particular data point too much, then we risk getting blindsided by a structural market change or simply a failed signal. That’s ...

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Big cluster of Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome warning signs
2019-11-21 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - Building Permits, VIX Put/Call, long term breadth, high yield bonds, Value vs. Growth
2019-11-21 | Troy Bombardia


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A Bad Case Of The Splits
2019-11-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.A bad case of the splitsThe Nasdaq exchange continues to see an abnormally large number of stocks hitting 52-week highs and 52-week lows. More than 3% of ...

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What I'm looking at - healthcare, France, GDP growth, MSCI World Index, breadth
2019-11-19 | Troy Bombardia


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A High HiLo
2019-11-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.HiLo is highOver the past week, there have been an increasing number of signs of a “split” market, with many winning and losing stocks. That has caused the ...

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Double Trouble
2019-11-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Double troubleFor the first time in several months, two technical warning signs triggered on the Nasdaq exchange. There hasn’t been a cluster, and they ...

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What I'm looking at - breadth & sentiment, yield curve, volatility, Consumer Comfort
2019-11-15 | Troy Bombardia


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Double technical warning sign on Nasdaq
2019-11-14 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - OECD, low volatility, SKEW, Bullish Percent Index, emerging markets
2019-11-14 | Troy Bombardia


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Why Investors' Money Market Rush Isn't Necessarily A Buy Signal
2019-11-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Money market mysteryAssets in money market funds continue to ramp higher. Knee-jerk contrarians will take that as a buy signal, but it’s not that easy. Assets ...

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Speculative Options Trading Picks Up
2019-11-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Options optimismThanks to a lot of volume in index options, the CBOE’s total put/call ratio dropped to a very low level. Over the past two weeks, it has moved ...

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What I'm looking at - sentiment froth?, new highs expansion, Hong Kong, New Zealand
2019-11-06 | Troy Bombardia


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One Of These Things Is Not Like The Others
2019-11-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.One of these things is not like the othersOut of the “big four” equity indexes, the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq are all sitting at new all-time highs. The small-cap ...

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What I'm looking at - breakouts, Put/Call, NASDAQ breadth, new highs
2019-11-05 | Troy Bombardia


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2 Participation Problems
2019-11-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Dearth of uptrendsMost of what we've looked at in recent months has suggested higher prices for stocks. There are maybe 1-3 times per year where pretty much ...

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What I'm looking at - Chemical Activity Barometer, Risk Appetite, Sensex, NASDAQ breadth
2019-11-01 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - ex-U.S. stocks, NYSE Up Issues, Economic Surprise, more overseas breadth
2019-10-30 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - stocks in a correction, KBW Bank Index, sentiment indicators, DAX breadth, high yield
2019-10-29 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - bear market, profit warnings, VIX Put/Call, homebuilders, manufacturers' new orders
2019-10-25 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - correlations, Fidelity Funds Breadth, KBW Bank Index, SPY Liquidity Premium, Value
2019-10-23 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - TLT Optix, Leading vs. Coincident, Russell range, DAX breadth, REITs, Smart Money Index
2019-10-22 | Troy Bombardia


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The Bond Market's "Sorry, Not Sorry" Moment
2019-10-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bond boondoggleBond traders are often considered the smart money, or at least smarter than equity investors. It might be an issue now because high-yield bonds ...

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Thursday Color - Bond Jitters, Energy Stock Losses, AAII Bulls Jump, DAX Breakout; Dollar's 100-Day
2019-10-17 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - Chinese profits, Nikkei breadth, Germany breakout, VIX Put/Call, fund flows
2019-10-17 | Troy Bombardia


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Tuesday Color - VIX below 14, card rates, transport services, slow growth, utility momentum
2019-10-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Color - Momo rebound, AAII stagnant, sector breadth lag, MLP pessimism
2019-10-10 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - momentum's resurgence, new highs-lows, Index Put/Call, job openings, soft data
2019-10-10 | Troy Bombardia


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Wednesday Color - Small-cap outflows, financial & energy breadth, natty drop, energy options
2019-10-09 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - Fear/Greed, Down Volume, Arms Index, directionless S&P, HiLo Logic Index
2019-10-09 | Troy Bombardia


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Late Cycle Behavior Triggers Crash In Insider Confidence
2019-10-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Late cycle behaviorInvestors have become concerned that we’re late in the business cycle and nearing recession. News articles catering to the fears are ...

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Monday Color - Breadth whipsaws, small traders, surprise spread, bond sentiment
2019-10-07 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - CEO confidence, Put/Call spike, new highs %, sentiment divergence, FTSE 100
2019-10-04 | Troy Bombardia


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Thursday Color - Depressed investors, negative gamma, Anti-Zweig thrust, signs of anxiety
2019-10-03 | Jason Goepfert


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S&P stocks are starting to roll over, but...
2019-10-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Manufactured pessimismA popular economic data series has tumbled into recession territory. The ISM Manufacturing survey has cratered over the past year and ...

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Wednesday Color - 1% losses, sensitive sectors to ISM data, no cash cushion, breadth anomolies
2019-10-02 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - Index Put/Call, Hard vs. Soft data, earnings estimates collapse, Arms Index, REITs
2019-10-02 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - MACD sell signal, Business Climate Indicator, VIX, different surprise indices, gold's 4Q rally
2019-10-01 | Troy Bombardia


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Stocks and the dollar are "joined at the pip"
2019-09-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Joined at the pipThere usually isn’t much of a correlation between movement in stocks and the dollar. As much as investors want to assign a narrative linking ...

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Thursday Color - Gold flow and open interest, bond flow, VIX call buying, Hang Seng rollover
2019-09-26 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - IPO fear, Index Put/Call, Consumer Confidence, Baltic Dry Index, Bullish Percent Index
2019-09-26 | Troy Bombardia


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The last 2 times there was impeachment talk, this happened
2019-09-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Impeach thisPolitical will seems to be growing to open an official impeachment inquiry against President Trump. That would mark the 3rd episode in the history ...

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Wednesday color - Utility surge impact on stocks/gold, breadth rollover, skittish signs, Egypt
2019-09-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Small options traders bought this much protection only 3 times in 20 years
2019-09-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Small traders being testedThe smallest of options traders keep buying a large amount of put options. Over the past 6 weeks, they’ve spent more than 24% of ...

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What I'm looking at - South Korean exports, HiLo, gold's top?, no daily movements, India's surge
2019-09-24 | Troy Bombardia


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Monday color - Nifty rebound, a rocky week, small traders
2019-09-23 | Jason Goepfert


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McClellan Summation above zero for 169 days
2019-09-20 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - Economic Surprise, low volatility, breadth, McClellan Summation, DAX
2019-09-20 | Troy Bombardia


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Thursday Color - Russell vs S&P Volatility, Summation Extremes, IWM Inflow, AAII Bulls

2019-09-19 | Jason Goepfert


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A Big Jump In Big Money Bulls
2019-09-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Big money gets bullishThe latest survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch that polls large money managers with nearly $700 billion under management showed a ...

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Wednesday Color - FOMC Bias, Emerging Recovery, Japan, Fund Flow
2019-09-18 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - manufacturing still weak, housing recovery?, bearish tops, NASDAQ breadth, new highs
2019-09-17 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - Germany, Smart Money Index, volume-based breadth, oil spike, Equity Put/Call
2019-09-16 | Troy Bombardia


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Up Volume 15-day average cycles from 40% to 63%
2019-09-16 | Jason Goepfert


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Bond Bulls Curb Their Enthusiasm
2019-09-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Break in bond bullsFor the first time in more than 9 months, optimism on bonds has come down to neutral territory. That ends one of the longest streaks in ...

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Nikkei 225 sees jump in stocks at 1-month high
2019-09-12 | Jason Goepfert


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What's Better Than Bonds?
2019-09-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Beautiful breadthThe Cumulative Advance/Decline Line for most of the major indexes are at or near all-time highs. Same for every one of the major S&P 500 ...

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Thursday Color - Breakaway Gaps, Japan Jumps, Small-Caps Pop, Dollar
2019-09-12 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - OECD, small caps, various breadth indicators
2019-09-11 | Troy Bombardia


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A Historic Turn In Fortunes
2019-09-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Growth no mo’ momoThe swift exodus from momentum stocks has hit those classified as “growth” hard, especially relative to those considered to be “value.” The ...

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Wednesday Color - Russell vs Nasdaq, Sector Divvies, Bond Whipsaw, Jumps Above BBands
2019-09-11 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - NASDAQ McClellan, Rotation, Greed & Fear, Small Business Hiring, world economy
2019-09-10 | Troy Bombardia


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Gold's Shocking Drop
2019-09-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Gold’s bull runETF traders have consistently poured money into gold funds, even during Thursday’s big drop, which was a “shocking” decline.It started to fall ...

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Monday Color - Better Appetite, Seasonal Fears, Expensive Utes, Overseas Jump, Sugar Dump
2019-09-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Why So Defensive?
2019-09-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.High on defensivesThe most defensive sectors of the market, consumer staples and utilities, saw a jump in the number of stocks rising to 52-week highs.This ...

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Wall Street Is The Most Confused In 20 Years
2019-09-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.The Street is behind and confusedWall Street analysts have underestimated the growth in S&P 500 company earnings growth for a year, one of the longest ...

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A Trade-Related Gap
2019-09-05 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - Recession Probability Model, emerging markets, Treasury yields, breadth, Consumer Confidence
2019-09-04 | Troy Bombardia


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Imminent Recession (So They Say)
2019-09-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.An unequal monthAn index that equally-weights each of the stocks in the S&P 500 badly under-performed the capitalization-weighted version of the index that ...

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Wednesday Color - Wall Street Pessimism, Utility Surge, Overseas Flow, Copper
2019-09-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Sectors In Sync Makes Investors Crabby
2019-08-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.All up or all downHalf of the days so far this month have seen every major S&P 500 sector move up or down together. This makes it one of the most "all ...

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Friday Color - Equity Outflow, Breadth High, Oscillator Extremes, Mexico Rebound, Dollar Pain
2019-08-30 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Color - Stocks Down + Bonds Up, MACD Sell, Energy Lows, Gold RSI
2019-08-28 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Color - Social Pessimism, Big Drops, Brazil Breadth, Ag Bears
2019-08-27 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at: National Activity Index, SPY breadth, short term breakout, bond yields, Ifo
2019-08-27 | Troy Bombardia


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Friday Color - Wipeout, Extremes, HiLo Too High
2019-08-23 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - State Coincident Index, Conference Board, McClellan Summation, TLT Optix, Treasury yields
2019-08-23 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - Put/Call spike, Rydex flows, Rydex breadth, Economic Surprise & bonds
2019-08-22 | Troy Bombardia


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Gold Beats Stocks' Double-Digit Jump
2019-08-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Rising and falling togetherThe major sectors within the S&P 500 have mostly been moving in concert, so correlations have risen quickly over the past month. ...

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Stocks Have Gone Absolutely Nowhere
2019-08-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Going nowhereThe most benchmarked index in the world has gone nowhere for over a year and a half. The S&P 500 was just trading at the same level it was at in ...

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Tuesday Color - Overseas Rebound, Sector Recoveries, HY vs IG Spreads, VIX Drop
2019-08-20 | Jason Goepfert


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S&P 500 after McOsc rises above 0 and McSumm never went < +100
2019-08-20 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - economic conditions, German manufacturing, Equity Put/Call, New Highs & Lows, Dollar vs. Gold
2019-08-20 | Troy Bombardia


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Panic-Level Selling Last Week As Bonds Hit Historic Extreme
2019-08-19 | Jason Goepfert


Safe haven heavenFriday provided some relief, but the past few weeks have been rocky for stocks. In response, investors moved aggressively into havens like bonds and gold. The 3-week change in the total return on bonds and gold are so far above that for stocks that it’s neared a 30-year ...

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Market overview: combining technicals & fundamentals
2019-08-17 | Troy Bombardia


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Friday Color - Risk Off, Options Anxiety, Many Lows, Big MOVE, Sector Extremes
2019-08-16 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - Liquidity Premium, Bullish Percent Index, Down Volume, Equity Put/Call, Value Line Geometric Index
2019-08-15 | Troy Bombardia


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Thursday Color - Turmoil, Double Losses, Recession Talk, Financials, Sectors
2019-08-15 | Jason Goepfert


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The End Of A Historic Streak Of Terribleness
2019-08-14 | Jason Goepfert


Beating expectationsFor the first time in 6 months, economic reports in the U.S. haven’t totally sucked. The Citi Economic Surprise Index is starting to rise quickly, as economists deflated their estimates enough for the economic data to catch up. This ends the longest terrible streak since the ...

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A High HiLo As Investors Rush Into Cash
2019-08-13 | Jason Goepfert


High HiLoA breadth indicator popularized several decades ago is highlighting a historically split market. To one of the largest degrees in years, there are a lot of winning and a lot of losing stocks at the same time.Per Investopedia, the HiLo Logic Index:The high-low index compares stocks that ...

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Tuesday Color - Gamma, Dislocations, Merval & Hang Seng, Emerging Fund Outflow, Bond Optix
2019-08-13 | Jason Goepfert


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S&P 500 After Double 70% Up Volume Days Following A Low
2019-08-13 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Color - 8 Straight 1%-ers, Large Calls, Corrections, Gold Buyers, Emerging Momentum
2019-08-12 | Jason Goepfert


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Volatility Spike - What Happens Next
2019-08-12 | Jason Goepfert


One and doneMonday’s session was notable for several reasons, mainly its shocking quality after investors became accustomed to much smaller moves. Wall Street generally believes this is not a “one and done” and there is more volatility to come.Historically, the argument for that is not ...

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Friday Color - Lows Recede, Summation Rollover, Bad Ag, Bond Bulls (Again)
2019-08-09 | Jason Goepfert


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The Stock-Bond Relationship Is Out Of Whack
2019-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


Strained relationshipThe drop in stocks over the past week didn’t happen in isolation, as traders fled to the perceived safety of the bond market. That moved the Stock/Bond Ratio to an extreme level, even while the S&P remains in a generally positive environment.This has typically resolved in ...

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Thursday Color - Islands, Emerging Streak & Breadth, Signs Of Anxiety, Gold
2019-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


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Shocks' Strong Tendency To Recover
2019-08-07 | Jason Goepfert


Shocking^3We’ve looked at “shock days” quite a bit over the years, most recently in May. Monday’s session exceeded the one in May, with a move more than 3 deviations beyond what investors have become accustomed to over the past year.Swift, sharp declines like this almost never end up morphing ...

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Wednesday Color - Bulls Gone, Put Volume, Energy Drop, Asian Axiety
2019-08-07 | Jason Goepfert


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Only Black Monday And 9/11 Were Worse Than This
2019-08-06 | Jason Goepfert


Cluster muckSigns of a “split” market started to trigger in mid-July and continued to accrue into the first days of August. This has been one of the tighter clusters of warning signs we’ve seen over the past 50 years.By the time some of these trigger, stocks have already declined somewhat. By ...

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Tuesday Color - Opening Volatility, New Lows, Sector Extremes, Big Outflows
2019-08-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Gaps And Warnings And Volatility, Oh My
2019-08-05 | Jason Goepfert


NOTE: This is an excerpt from Monday's premium note.SplatTraders get to start the new week staring at large losses in the futures. That follows a week that was pretty much straight down, with the S&P 500 losing ground for the past 5 sessions.We haven't faced this kind of opening pessimism since ...

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Monday Color - Gaps, Volatility Jump, Options Buying, Warning Cluster, Hong Kong
2019-08-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Investors Keep Hoarding Cash
2019-07-25 | Jason Goepfert


NOTE: This will be the last Lite post for the next week.Lagging the market, and cashThe broader stock market has done well over the past month, but an abnormally large – and increasing – number of Fidelity Select sector funds are lagging even the return on cash.It’s not “odd” funds like precious ...

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Wednesday Color - ETF Asset Drop, P/C Ratio, Fidelity Sectors, Warning Signs, Bond Bulls, Debt Contraction, Mexico
2019-07-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Tightest Cluster Of Small-Cap Weakness Since '99
2019-07-24 | Jason Goepfert


A large “small” divergenceOver the past 30 days, there have now been 6 sessions when the S&P 500 was at or near a 52-week high, but the ratio of the small-cap Russell 2000 index to the S&P sunk to a 52-week low. That’s the tightest cluster of days since April 1999.Large, rounded peaks in the ...

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Tuesday Color - Gold vs Yen, Russell Lag, S&P Divergence, Mexican Breadth, Smart Money Selling
2019-07-23 | Jason Goepfert


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200 Reasons Why The Hindenburg Omen Matters
2019-07-22 | Jason Goepfert


Warning signsFor the first time since October 2018, there are hints of trouble brewing beneath the market. While major indexes have been at or near all-time highs, under the surface there are more and more stocks losing momentum, and there has been a split with many securities at 52-week highs ...

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Bullish Options Traders, Buying Climaxes, Silver Flow, Hedgers' Bets, Breadth
2019-07-22 | Jason Goepfert


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Hindenburg Omen Triggers For The 1st Time In 3 Months
2019-07-19 | Jason Goepfert


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Friday Color - Gold Momentum, Internal Warnings, Mexico
2019-07-19 | Jason Goepfert


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Momentum Is Waning And Stocks Are Starting To Split
2019-07-19 | Jason Goepfert


Six months of momentumThe McClellan Summation Index has now gone 6 months in positive territory.That’s a long streak compared to others since 1962. Momentum is very difficult to time, almost by definition, but by the time this measure of breadth momentum went this long above zero, forward ...

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Thursday Color - Fading 'Mo, Energy Stock Drop, Titanic Signal, Cotton, Euro Junk
2019-07-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Color - Dow Stocks, Dumb Money, Gamma, Microsoft Expectations, Germany
2019-07-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Friday Color - Yield Curve, Small Caps, XLU vs XLE, Bonds, Brazil
2019-07-12 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Color - Dovish Fed, Sector Extremes, Round #, Value Line Lag, Twitter Bulls
2019-07-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Color - High Yield Rally, Sector Breadth, Recession Risk, Yield Drop
2019-07-09 | Jason Goepfert


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This Is One Of Tech's Quickest Recoveries
2019-07-03 | Jason Goepfert


New highs, but...The S&P jumped to a record high along with several other indexes on Monday (and Tuesday) but fewer stocks were coming along for the ride both days. The percentage of stocks on the NYSE and within the S&P itself has shrunk from when the indexes moved toward new highs in June.That ...

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Tuesday Color - Tech's Recovery, Gold Loss, Sector Breadth, Semi's, Japan's Surprises
2019-07-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Color - High Gap, Weekly Indicators, Sector Breadth
2019-07-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Color - Gas, Wall St Strategists, Sector Breadth, Lagging U.S.
2019-06-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Friday Color - Massive Flows, Dollar Trend, Stock/Bond Rally, Whiplash, Sector Highs
2019-06-21 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Color - Morning Gap, Sector Breadth, Gold Breakout
2019-06-20 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Color - Everything Rallies, Bond Flow and Vol, Within 1%, Energy, France
2019-06-19 | Jason Goepfert


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Split S&P 500 Between Highs And Bear Markets
2019-06-18 | Jason Goepfert


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The Most Split S&P 500 In History
2019-06-18 | Jason Goepfert


Split indexWith the recent surge in stocks, more than 20% of them in the S&P 500 hit a 52-week high. But the percentage of stocks mired in a bear market, or at least 20% off their highs, hasn’t come down by much.This leaves a split index, with a lot of stocks at either a new high, or in bear ...

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Monday Color - Tiny Range, Options Traders, A Split S&P, Empire Fail
2019-06-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Why Aren't Hedgies Buying?
2019-06-17 | Jason Goepfert


Another near-thrustEnough stocks have risen during the past two weeks, with enough volume flow, that it has nearly triggered another Zweig Breadth Thrust.Like we’ve seen with a lot of indicators over the past month or so, what’s most notable about these readings isn’t necessarily what they’re ...

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Friday Color - Bond Flow (!), Recession Risk, Breadth Thrust, Gold Options, Stock Screen
2019-06-14 | Jason Goepfert


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A Tale Of 2 Sectors
2019-06-14 | Jason Goepfert


A tale of two sectorsMost utility stocks have been rising over the past 3 weeks and are trading above their 50-day averages. Few energy stocks can boast the same.When there has been this wide of a divergence between those two sectors, the broader market had a strong tendency to rise with only ...

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Advance/Decline Line At New High
2019-06-13 | Jason Goepfert


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Utility vs Energy Stocks In Uptrends
2019-06-13 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Color - Reverval, Outflows, Overseas Surges, Copper
2019-06-12 | Jason Goepfert


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Defensive Stocks Dominate The New High List - Does It Matter?
2019-06-12 | Jason Goepfert


A defensive new high listAcross the equity market, securities at a 52-week high have expanded. Same goes for companies within the S&P 500. And within that index, it’s been more of the defensive sectors that have seen the best participation.While that suggests a potentially worrisome risk-off ...

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Small Traders Buy Record Hedges Even As Financials Surge
2019-06-11 | Jason Goepfert


Financial recoveryFor the first time since early 2018, more than a quarter of financial stocks within the S&P 500 hit a 52-week high.This kind of a surge has been good for the sector, with gains over the next year every time.In 2000, this jump in new highs among financial stocks led to a 4% ...

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Tuesday Color - Gaps Up, Bond Flow, Weird Volatility, Sector Highs
2019-06-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Color - New Highs, Material Gain, Financials, Gold, Small Traders, 5 Straight
2019-06-10 | Jason Goepfert


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A Big Jobs Miss As Highs Surge
2019-06-10 | Jason Goepfert


JobsWe saw on Thursday that a big miss in the ADP report possibly meant a big miss in the Nonfarm Payroll report today, and if it dove to a 5-year low, would be a bad sign for stocks. The report missed, but wasn't bad enough to trigger the 5-year low. So at least there's that.But the report did ...

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Friday Color - Jobs, Econ Surprises, 4 Gains, Breadth, Energy, Gold
2019-06-07 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Color - Bond Moves, Yield Curve, Jobs, REITs & Utes, New Highs, Mexico
2019-06-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Buyers' 1-2 Punch For Stocks
2019-06-06 | Jason Goepfert


A one-two rallyThe S&P 500 fell to a 50-day low on Monday, and the charts didn’t look good, but they hid a lot of underlying potential. Both Monday and Tuesday saw eager buying pressure under the surface, and Tuesday’s one-day jump in the S&P was the largest in nearly six months.When the index ...

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Buying Thrust Off A Low
2019-06-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Tuesday's Jump, Breadth Recovery, Bitcoin, Corn
2019-06-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Color - Bond Volatility And Optimism, Gold, Flows, Tech Breadth
2019-06-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Color - Cycle Peak, De-Risking, Silver, Breadth Extremes
2019-06-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Why This Has Been A Healthy Pullback
2019-06-03 | Jason Goepfert


From new high to downtrendBarely a month after it was sitting at an all-time high, the S&P 500 fell far enough and fast enough to close below its 200-day average.This is one of the index’s quicker turnarounds from being at a multi-year high to falling below its average. When it had spent at ...

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Friday Color - More Gaps, Peso, Outflows, Bond Binge
2019-05-31 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Confidence, Staples, May Loss, Options Fear
2019-05-29 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Midday Color - Shanghai, , DAX, Bond Bulls, Euro Sentiment
2019-05-28 | Jason Goepfert


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Friday Midday Color - Dow's 5th Loss, Energy Breadth, Utes, Social Negatives
2019-05-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Midday Color - Panic, Few Bulls, Asian Slide
2019-05-23 | Jason Goepfert


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This Has Happened To Tech Only Twice Before
2019-05-22 | Jason Goepfert


From first to worstStocks have lost one of their biggest drivers. Tech stocks have powered much of the rally through April, and then fell hard. The sector was leading the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors, and then fell to the worst among them over the past few weeks.That does not happen often, and ...

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Tuesday Midday Color - Shorts, Emerging Mkts, Sector Extremes
2019-05-21 | Jason Goepfert


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Friday Midday Color - Bonds, Renewed Momo, Overseas Extremes
2019-05-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Traders Are Panicking The Most Since The Financial Crisis
2019-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


More momentum miscuesSigns of waning momentum are everywhere. One of the more impressive signs of intense underlying buying was in the Dow Industrials, where the McClellan Summation Index held above 1,000 for nearly three months, until now.Other times that extreme momentum finally ended over the ...

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Wednesday Midday Color - Big Outflows, More Hedging, Falling Momo
2019-05-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Momentum Traders' First Real Test
2019-05-15 | Jason Goepfert


Testing momentumIn early January, stocks registered a Zweig Breath Thrust when Up Volume quickly swung from oversold to overbought. This week, the indicator hit an oversold level for the first time, testing momentum traders’ conviction.Other times that months passed between a thrust and the ...

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Tuesday Midday Color - More Gaps, Breadth (Down) Thrusts, Overseas Drops
2019-05-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Sentiment Is Curling
2019-05-13 | Jason Goepfert


Summation finally weakensWe’ve discussed the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indexes a lot in recent months, because they have been showing notable readings of momentum. That’s starting to ease with the long-term Summation Index, which dropped below 750 for the first time in months, ending ...

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Friday Midday Color - Pre-Market Fear, Failures, Overseas Extremes, Momentum Drops
2019-05-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Midday Color - First Pullback, Weak Sectors, Returning Investors
2019-05-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Midday Color - Vol Surge, Dow Drops, Sector Extremes
2019-05-08 | Jason Goepfert


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4 Energetic Extremes
2019-05-06 | Jason Goepfert


Energy extremesThe selling pressure earlier this week in the energy sector triggered several shorter-term extremes in breadth. Most of those stocks fell to their lowest in a month, below their volatility bands. Few held above their short-term moving averages.When the sector had rebounded more ...

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Friday Midday Color - Momentum Market, Energy Washout, Russell Breakout
2019-05-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Why Beans Should Bounce
2019-05-02 | Jason Goepfert


No oomph in OscillatorThe McClellan Oscillator hasn’t been able to get above zero even as the S&P 500 and other indexes tick to new highs on multiple days.Over the past 57 years, this has been a negative sign of underlying weakness for stocks, though the sample is small, and the most recent ...

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Wednesday Midday Color - Sagging Summation, Missing MoMo, Strategist Switch
2019-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


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A Shocking Volatility Twist With Recovering Financials
2019-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


Volatility twistOver the past month, volatility in big tech stocks has been lower than volatility in stocks specifically chosen because of their staid nature, according to Bloomberg data. Historical volatility on the Nasdaq 100 fell below that of the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index, a rare twist ...

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Tuesday Midday Color - No Cash, Bullish On Bonds, Financials' Breadth
2019-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Midday Color - Cranky Calls, Big Breadth, Can't-Miss Swiss
2019-04-29 | Jason Goepfert


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Breadth Breathes As A Bearish Candle Engulfs Oil
2019-04-29 | Jason Goepfert


Breadth takes a breatherIn January, breadth momentum was so impressive that the McClellan Oscillator held above 50 for over a month. Since then, it hasn’t climbed above that level even as stocks made great gains.This is a divergence that has triggered near several important market peaks, but the ...

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Friday Midday Color - Flows, Breadth Extremes, Shanghai
2019-04-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Midday Color - Dollar Bets, Big Breadth, Twitter Junk
2019-04-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Stocks Have A Participation Problem
2019-04-25 | Jason Goepfert


Debt declinesWhen stocks rally, investors tend to borrow more against their shares. There is a high positive correlation between changes in stock indexes and changes in margin debt.That’s breaking down this year, though. As stocks have rallied, investors have held back on their debt. It’s not as ...

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Wednesday Midday Color - Bond Bulls, High-Yield Breadth, Lagging S&P Stocks, Tech Values
2019-04-24 | Jason Goepfert


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A Most Excellent Recovery
2019-04-24 | Jason Goepfert


An excellent recoveryThe S&P 500’s new high marks an end to the correction, one of the S&P’s most impressive recoveries from a major decline from a prior all-time high. Other times it made a somewhat similarly-sized recovery over a quick- to moderate time frame, it tended to keep going, but it ...

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Tuesday Midday Color - S&P Recovery, Pound Probabilities, Mixed Breadth
2019-04-23 | Jason Goepfert


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4 Reasons Why Health Care Could Rebound
2019-04-20 | Jason Goepfert


Health care’s bad weekHealth care stocks have gotten hit, and it’s erased their year-to-date gain, while the S&P 500 has held up. The divergence between the two this far into a year is unusual.Other times health care underperformed by more than 5% through this many sessions into a year, it led ...

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Thursday Midday Color - Health Care, Opex
2019-04-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Midday Color - Tech Breakout & Breadth, Screens
2019-04-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Midday Color
2019-04-16 | Jason Goepfert


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Does The Low Volume Really Matter?
2019-04-16 | Jason Goepfert


Low-volume rallyEach of the past three weeks has seen the S&P 500 inch ever closer to a new high. At the same time, investors have grown increasingly comfortable, as volume continues to decline and is now more than 10% below its yearly average.It’s entirely normal for volume to ratchet higher ...

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Monday Midday Color
2019-04-15 | Jason Goepfert


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No Spike In New Highs - What It Means
2019-04-12 | Jason Goepfert


A sparse new high listThe S&P 500 has been hanging near its former high, but relatively few securities on the NYSE have been able to push above their former peaks. It’s now been 300 days since more than 7% of issues on the NYSE hit a new high, ranking as one of the longest stretches in 50 years. ...

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Thursday Midday Color
2019-04-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Midday Color
2019-04-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Midday Color
2019-04-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Friday Midday Color
2019-04-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Midday Color
2019-04-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Midday Color
2019-04-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Midday Color
2019-03-28 | Jason Goepfert


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Options Traders Bet On Decline As S&P Meets Target And Utes Surge
2019-03-28 | Jason Goepfert


Options bets and strategists’ spreadAs stocks rally, options traders have built up a large position in S&P 500 put options, relative to the number of outstanding calls. It’s the opposite in VIX options, where they have few puts and many calls. Since 2006, this has led to a negative annualized ...

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Surge In New Highs Among Utilities
2019-03-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Midday Color
2019-03-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Midday Color
2019-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Midday Color
2019-03-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Midday Color
2019-03-21 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Midday Color
2019-03-19 | Jason Goepfert


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Breadth Momentum Crests As FX Volatility Plunges
2019-03-19 | Jason Goepfert


Breadth surge has crestedAfter seeing a historic run in the momentum of stocks’ underlying breadth in January and February, indicators are showing diverging trends. That’s to be expected after readings like January’s, and historically these “negative divergences” haven’t been so negative. Over ...

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Monday Midday Color
2019-03-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Catching Up
2019-03-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Hedgers Are Hedging As Transports Lag Amid Momentum Ebb
2019-03-07 | Jason Goepfert


Hedgers actually hedgingHedgers in the major index futures pared their positions by more than $10 billion at the end of February. That’s one of their larger one-week increases in hedging activity.When they’ve made such big changes in the past, it has been a bit of a negative for stocks.Dow ...

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Tuesday Midday Color
2019-03-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Midday Color
2019-03-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Mystery Buyers As Breadth Momentum Hits Epic Proportions
2019-03-04 | Jason Goepfert


Mystery buyerThere are many remarkable aspects to the rally over the past two months, including who’s buying. Large speculators in index futures continue to sell. So do small speculators.Hedge funds don’t seem to be buying. And neither do mutual fund or ETF investors. All of these are a change ...

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Friday Midday Color
2019-03-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Midday Color
2019-02-28 | Jason Goepfert


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Big Rally In Small Stocks, With Smart Money Buying
2019-02-28 | Jason Goepfert


Small stocks, big rallySmall-cap stocks have rallied 24% in only two months, ranking among the best rallies since 1926.Other times they jumped to this degree, small stocks tended to rise in the months ahead, but there were some failures. The overall bias was positive, especially in terms of risk ...

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An Industrial-Led Rally As Shanghai Surprises
2019-02-27 | Jason Goepfert


The rally’s workhorsesThe Industrials sector has led all major S&P 500 groups since the December 24 low, while defensive ones like Utilities have lagged.Going back to 1928 and looking at all two-month, 10% rallies from a low, we see that the rallies with the highest sector correlation to our ...

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Tuesday Midday Color
2019-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


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No Volatility As Utilities' Breadth Impresses
2019-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


No volatilityVolatility expectations across assets have plunged. The VIX and its related measures for stocks, bonds, oil, gold, and bonds is hovering near multi-year or even multi-decade lows.Since 1990, it has been unusual to see the “volatility of everything” collapse at the same time, and it ...

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Monday Midday Color
2019-02-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Friday Midday Color
2019-02-22 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Midday Color
2019-02-21 | Jason Goepfert


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A Remarkable Run, As Bulls Return And Dow Stocks Are Above Average
2019-02-21 | Jason Goepfert


A remarkable runBoth the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 have enjoyed a near-historic run from their Christmas Eve lows. The magnitude of their gains, interrupted by only a few large daily losses, have been matched only a few times.The sample sizes are tiny, but the implications are mostly positive, ...

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Wednesday Midday Color
2019-02-20 | Jason Goepfert


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Crossing A Flat 200-Day Average As Optimism Follows The Thrust
2019-02-14 | Jason Goepfert


Jumping over a flat averageThe S&P 500 finally closed above its 200-day average after a couple of months below. Because the decline was not that severe or long-lasting, the average was flat.When the S&P has ended a streak below its 200-day average and that average was flat, its returns were ...

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Sustained Momentum Even As Cumulative Net New Highs Barely Budge
2019-02-12 | Jason Goepfert


Sustained momentumThe McClellan Summation Index continues to power higher, showing impressive and sustained momentum. After being below -500 for at least 10 consecutive days, it is now above +500 for 10 straight, flipping its momentum.When it has been able to maintain a high level after flipping ...

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Cumulative New High / New Low Lagging
2019-02-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Fear Is Slipping As Moving Averages Show Extreme
2019-02-07 | Jason Goepfert


Fear is slippingEven while the S&P 500 remains below its 200-day average, the VIX has slipped to a multi-month low and is well below its long-term average of 20.This has consistently led to trouble over the short- to medium-term as the ebbing of concern showed that investors were too quick to ...

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Good Overbought; Dow Leads Above 200-Day
2019-02-01 | Jason Goepfert


Good overboughtAfter reaching an extreme oversold reading in December, the long-term McClellan Summation Index has cycled back to an overbought reading. What’s notable about this is just how quickly the Summation Index has cycled up to 500 after being so depressed just a month ago. The only time ...

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McClellan Summation Crosses 500
2019-01-31 | Jason Goepfert


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Emerging Markets Breakout; Fidelity Managers Beat Cash; Baltic Dry Collapse
2019-01-31 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Breaking outEmerging markets have closed above their 200-day average for the first time since last spring, a streak of nearly 9 months. That’s one of the longer streaks in 30 years.Other times an emerging markets index ended long streaks below its ...

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Back To Greed; Low Exposure; Oscillator Streak
2019-01-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Back to greedThe CNN Fear & Greed model has gone from extreme Fear in December to Greed now.It’s not unusual to see it swing this much, this quickly, but it is unusual when the S&P 500 still hasn’t made it above its 200-day averages. And those ...

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McClellan Oscillator Above 50 For 3 Weeks
2019-01-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Most Stocks Are Rallying; Put Open Interest Is Rising
2019-01-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stocks are rallyingEven though the S&P 500 is nearly 10% below its high, its Cumulative Advance/Decline Line has rebounded so much it’s almost at a new high.That’s a positive divergence, but historically there hasn’t been much positive about it, ...

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The Anti-Hindenburg Omen; Fed Recession Risk Rises
2019-01-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The anti-HindenburgA compelling reason for caution last fall was the kind of split market that triggered a cluster of Hindenburg Omen warning signs. Over the past two weeks, there has been a cluster of signals that are the exact opposite of the ...

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No Bank Failures; Battle Of Time Frames For Moving Averages
2019-01-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.As good as it can getLast year, there were no bank failures. That sounds like a good thing, and it’s happened only 3 other times in 85 years. A sample size of 3 makes it difficult to consider the precedents, so if we relax the parameters and look ...

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New Low Decline As An "All-Clear"; Junk Bond Surge
2019-01-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.All is not clearIn December, more than 40% of securities hit a 52-week low. That has since collapsed to fewer than 0.4% of issues, the 2nd fastest and most dramatic reversal in history.If we relax the thresholds, using more than 30% new lows as the ...

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Zweig Breadth Thrust; Strategists vs Analysts
2019-01-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.TriggeredThis time is different. When we look at the declines and attempted recoveries since the trouble started in October, what has transpired since mid- to late December is markedly different than the ones that failed. This push off the lows has ...

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Breadth Thrust From The Low; Record Stock And Bond Fund Outflows
2019-01-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Get me inDuring rally attempts in November and December, one worry was that there were no strong thrusts in breadth. Both failed. During this latest rally, there have been two such days, so strong that there are few historical precedents.Maybe it’s ...

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Newsletters Are Shorting; Breadth Swings; No Highs; Big Outflow; Buying Stampede
2018-12-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Get shortyWhile individual investors in the AAII survey became pessimistic a week ago, this week there were more than 50% bears in the survey for the first time in 5 years. That has made a different in other surveys, too. According to one measure ...

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Swift, Severe Decline; Up Volume Thrust; Low TRIN
2018-12-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stocks just suffered one of the largest, swiftest pullbacks in 70 yearsThe S&P suffered a 17% loss in less than four months.That’s unnerving but is not the kind of decline that happens before or during economic recessions. They are mostly ...

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A Pre-Holiday Review
2018-12-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Another Volatile Session
2018-12-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Another volatile sessionSome early optimism on Thursday was quickly erased, and stocks dove to new lows for this move. In the process, it triggered several extremes:* The Nasdaq is on the threshold of a 20% decline.* The percentage of securities ...

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New Low Spike; Heavy Selling Cluster
2018-12-20 | Jason Goepfert


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Equity Risk Premium Collapses; A Day Of Notable Moves; VIX Not Jumping
2018-12-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Equity premium collapsesThe premium that investors are willing to pay for stocks’ earnings has collapsed relative to the yield available on bonds. The one-year z-score of the Equity Risk Premium is now 4 standard deviations below average, a ...

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Oil And Energy Collapse; RSI Divergence; Smart-Dumb Money Extreme; Overwhelming Lows
2018-12-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No energyCrude oil collapsed with a large loss and 52-week low on Tuesday. That’s not what the Energy stock sector needed right now but taking the chance that we’re whistling past the graveyard, the losses on Monday and Tuesday may just be bad ...

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Long-Term Bears; Russell 2000 Bear Market; S&P Drops On Friday/Monday; Spike In 52-Week Lows
2018-12-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Long-term bearsBuilding on what we looked at last week, we take a longer-term, multi-year look at prior bear markets, including their median loss and standard deviations. We also look at returns following major peaks in Consumer Confidence.The ...

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Energy Stocks Worst Breadth In 4 Years; Traders Keep Selling The Open
2018-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.At least Financials are worseBreadth in the S&P 500 Energy Sector is the worst in four years. Few of the stocks are above even their shortest-term moving averages, and there has been a spike in the percentage of stocks at a 52-week low.This has, in ...

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New Lows In Financials; Buy-The-Rally Is Dead, Too
2018-12-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Financial troublesMore than half of the stocks in the S&P 500 Financials sector have declined to a 52-week low, the most in more than two years.After investors have sold so many in a single sector to this low of a level, it has tended to bounce. ...

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Financials' New Lows; Bank Loan Pessimism
2018-12-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Bonds On Sale; Hedge Fund Exposure; Persistent New Lows
2018-12-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bonds on saleA popular intermediate-term corporate bond ETF was trading this week at a price (relatively) far below its underlying value.Big discounts on liquid ETFs are rare, and often a good contrary indicator. Over its nearly 10-year history, ...

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Volatility Regime Change; More New Lows
2018-12-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Regime changeStocks have swung more than 1.5 standard deviations on more than half the days during the past two months. That’s a big change from September when it happened only once. When stocks change from a low-volatility regime to a high one, it ...

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Yield Curve Inversion; Intense Selling; November Flows
2018-12-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Upside downThe yields on 2- and 3-year Treasuries are now higher than 5-year maturities, an inversion of the short end of the yield curve.This tends to precede an inversion of the more common 2-year vs 10-year yields. But there has been a long lead ...

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Positive Breadth Divergence; Growth Worries
2018-12-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A positive divergenceWhen the S&P fell to a 6-month low last week, significantly fewer of its individual stocks did so, creating a positive divergence in its Advance/Decline Line.That looks pretty on a chart, but it hasn’t been consistent enough, ...

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Sentiment vs Earnings; Massive Buy Programs
2018-11-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Sentiment vs earningsThe S&P 500’s flat return in 2018 so far has been due to the growth in earnings being offset by a drop in sentiment. The price/earnings ratio for the index has declined about as much as earnings have grown, like 2011.Other ...

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Puts Are Popular; No Sector Funds Are Beating Cash
2018-11-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Puts have become popularSince the market peaked in September, most days have seen at least 10% more put options traded than call options, the largest cluster in three years. Out of a total of 27 days in the sample, the S&P was higher two months ...

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An Almost-Thrust; Bond Boondoggle
2018-11-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.An almost-thrustAt the end of October, volume was flowing overwhelmingly into declining stocks, pushing the Up Volume Ratio into oversold territory. That has now changed, and the switch has been aggressive enough to (almost) trigger a traditional ...

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No Capitulation; No Breadth Thrust
2018-11-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No capitulationThe VIX “fear gauge” never really spiked during the October pullback, suggesting no capitulation from investors.That’s not really true, and it doesn’t matter for forward returns. History is riddled with bottoms that weren’t ...

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Massive Sell Programs; Hard, Fast Pullback, Near-Record Negative Momentum
2018-10-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Everybody outDuring the past 3 weeks, we’ve seen a near-record amount of sell programs at some point during the trading day.The lowest NYSE TICK during that stretch is now the 2nd most extreme in history, with an average of more than a net 40% of ...

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Stocks, Sectors In Correction; Nasdaq's Bad Day; S&P Negative YTD; Spike In Pessimism
2018-10-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stocks in correctionThe S&P still hasn’t suffered a correction, if we define it by a 10% decline from a 52-week high. With the severe loss on Wednesday, it has just barely missed the cut. Most of its stocks haven’t been so fortunate, however. With ...

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Major Reversal; Jump In New Lows; Dumb Money Purge
2018-10-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Waiting For A Breadth Thrust; Chinese Investors' Long Slog
2018-10-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Waiting for a thrustBreadth recent hit a deep oversold reading, now many are looking for an upside “thrust” that signals a return of buying interest.But waiting for a breath thrust hasn’t worked well in bull markets. Future returns were better, and ...

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Correcting Oversold; Quick Change In Character; Every Dow Stock Rises
2018-10-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Correcting oversoldThe McClellan Oscillator has gone from extremely oversold to neutral. It was below -90 just a few days ago and is now up to -10.Such a rapid change in character has been a good sign during uptrends, and that context was important ...

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Rate-Sensitive Divergence With Yields As New Lows Climb
2018-10-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Rate-sensitive divergence warningAs yields rise, the Financial sector is badly underperforming Utilities, which is atypical.Historically, there has been a strong positive correlation between rates and the ratio of Financials to Utilities. When a ...

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Momentum Shift As Bonds Have Big Move
2018-10-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum shiftThe McClellan Summation Index is below zero for the first time in a half-year.It’s also turning negative while stocks are still relatively close to their recent highs, and that has been more of a negative shorter-term.Bonds’ biggest ...

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NDX Breaks 50-Day, Breadth Momentum Rolls Over
2018-10-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Dow Ignores Majority, IPO Appetite Wanes
2018-10-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Dow ignores the majorityThe Dow Industrials have rallied to new highs, but most stocks are in bear markets.More than half of NYSE stocks are below their 200-day averages, a rare disparity on days when the Dow has been at its highest level in a year ...

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Options Bulls Reign As New Lows Rise Even Amid Good Price Momentum
2018-10-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Calling all bullsOptions traders are showing a historic preference for speculating on the upside. In recent weeks and months, they’ve spent most of their options volume on buying speculative calls.At the same time, they don’t want to risk a large ...

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Breadth Lacks Oomph As Many S&P Stocks Still In Bear Markets
2018-09-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Lacking a little oomphStock indexes have reached record highs, but there isn’t much oomph in the move. The McClellan Oscillator has been negative for nearly 3 weeks, which is a long time given the run to new highs in the S&P. When the index hits a ...

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Dow Theory Buy Signal Even As Homebuilders Slip
2018-09-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Dow theory buy signalBoth the Dow Industrials and Transports have reached new highs. This is the first new high in the Industrials in months, following the previous breakout from Transports. Similar buy signals according to trend-following theory ...

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Managers Favor U.S. As Market Sees Historic Split
2018-09-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.There’s no place like homeFund managers are showing a multi-year preference for U.S. stocks. A popular survey from BAML shows that managers are heavily overweight the U.S. versus both emerging market and eurozone stocks. But that hasn’t necessarily ...

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A "Small" Split As Investors Pull Back
2018-09-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A “small” splitThe Russell 2000 is near its highs, but relatively few of its stocks are trading above their moving averages. There has also been an uptick in its stocks hitting multi-month lows.The only other times this has happened to this degree ...

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Financials Lag As Transports Lead
2018-09-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stalling Financials trigger concernEven as the S&P tickles a new high, Financials have struggled and are the worst-performing major sector over the past six months. The ratio between Financials to the S&P just hit a new 52-week low, which has been ...

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Growth Better Than Unemployment As Warnings Cluster
2018-09-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Growth > unemploymentThe President’s triumphant gaffe about a 100-year high in economic success masked a relatively common signal. When GDP growth was higher than the unemployment rate, stock returns were in line with random, suggesting there was ...

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Small Business Has Never Been Better As Hong Kong Slides Into A Bear
2018-09-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Never betterSmall business owner optimism is at record highs, surpassing two other periods since 1979.Despite worries about labor, owners have exceptionally high confidence about future conditions. It is backward-looking for stocks, though, and ...

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A Week Of Warnings As Transports Break Out
2018-09-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A week of warningsEvery day last week triggered a Hindenburg Omen or Titanic Syndrome technical warning signal.While they are much-maligned and not immune to failures, similar clusters of these warning signs preceded consistent weakness across ...

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Record Positive Divergence As We Near An August High
2018-08-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A near-record positive divergenceThe S&P 500’s Advance/Decline Line is more than 5% above its high from January, showing that even as the index itself has struggled to hit a new high, a majority of stocks in the index have consistently climbed ...

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A Tepid Rally As Coffee And Sugar Sour
2018-08-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A really, really tepid rallyIn the past 90 days, there have been only 3 breadth thrusts, a tepid run as the S&P 500 nears a new high.Rallies with few thrusts did worse going forward than rallies with more of them, but even so the returns were still ...

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Mid And Small Cap Stocks Diverge At Highs As Emerging Market Volatility Soars
2018-08-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.About those new highsMid and Small Cap indexes are hitting new 52-week highs, leading the Large Cap S&P 500 index as we saw on Tuesday. But fewer of those mid- and small-cap stocks in the indexes are also reaching 52-week highs.Similar divergences ...

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Mid And Small Caps Break Out As Financial Conditions Ease Amid VIX Decline
2018-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Large caps lag mids and smallsThe S&P Mid Cap and Small Cap indexes have hit new 52-week highs this week while the large-cap S&P 500 still has not.The lagging S&P 500 tends to catch up, with all three indexes usually rallying in the months ...

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Dow's Long Correction With Positive S&P Breadth
2018-08-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The Dow’s long correctionThe Dow has gone 130 days without a new high or 20% loss, one of its longer stretches in purgatory. Other periods when it got stuck in a correction mostly resolved higher, with a choppy 1-2 months generally leading to new ...

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Breadth Divergences Not Much Of A Concern As Staples Recover
2018-08-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Few highs as indexes rallyThe S&P 500 has rallied close to its prior highs, but there is a divergence. Relatively few stocks are registering 4-, 12-, and 52-week highs as the index rallies.It’s a concern among technicians but has not been a ...

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Leaders Become Laggards As Traders Bet On Volatility
2018-08-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Leaders become laggardsThe Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 have lost their 50-day averages after months above, a change from June when both were leading the market. Even with the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials above their averages, future returns ...

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Risk Appetite Wanes As Small-Caps' Trend Ends And Funds See Outflows
2018-07-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Lack of risk appetiteDiscretionary stocks are at a multi-month low relative to defensive Staples.That sign of risk-off behavior is unusual with the S&P near a high but has not been a good excuse to sell stocks.Another trend endedThe small-cap ...

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Momentum Worries As Emerging Stocks Start Uptrending
2018-07-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum worriesAs the S&P hit a 100-day high, a very low % of stocks are showing momentum. An almost record low % of stocks are above their 10-day avg or have an RSI > 70, which has preceded weak shorter-term returns or failed rallies.Emerging ...

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Nasdaq Stocks Lag While Emerging Market Nerves Hit High
2018-07-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Some lag during latest legThe Nasdaq Composite closed at a 52-week high on Friday but relatively few stocks have come along, with fewer than 60% of members trading above their 50- and 200-day averages.The one-year return in the Nasdaq averaged ...

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Good Growth During Earnings Season As Nasdaq Leads
2018-07-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A great season of earningsEarnings season is expected to bring another quarter of impressive growth.When that growth is high, however, earnings season carries more risk than reward.Tech is leading the chargeThe Nasdaq Composite is leading the four ...

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Breadth Momentum Improves As Equal Weight S&P Lags
2018-07-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.An uptick in momentumThe McClellan Oscillator has turned positive after weeks below zero.In a bull market, that has led to good medium-term returns, especially since 1984 when it led to gains over the next 6 months 18 out of 20 times.Don’t forget ...

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World Markets And Platinum Fall As Utilities Streak Higher
2018-06-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.World stocks hit 2018 lowWorld stocks have hit a 200-day low while the S&P 500 is more than 8% above its own 200-day low. Similar setups led to a rebound in World stocks over the next 2-4 weeks.Compared to the S&P, World stocks outperformed every ...

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GE Booted From Dow As Russell And Nasdaq Hit Highs
2018-06-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Somebody turn on the lightsGE got booted from the DJIA after 100 years, after a similar stretch of poor returns from Alcoa when it was removed…and before it doubled during the next year.Other stocks that got removed from the Dow did fine going ...

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Gold Bugs' Bad Day As Cap-Weighted Indexes Take Over
2018-06-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Gold bugs’ ruined weekendHeading into the weekend, gold futures suffered their largest loss in over a year, to a multi-month low. When it happened it May, the selling marked an exhaustion and gold worked higher. Most times it did something similar, ...

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Euro Death Cross As Down Days Swamp Up Days, Staples Stabilize
2018-06-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Euro Death CrossFor more than a year, the euro’s 50-day average has been above its 200-day average.That trend has now ended, after one of the longest streaks in the currency’s history. The end to other long streaks led to further weakness in the ...

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Breadth Momentum Picks Up As Value Lags Growth And Homebuilders Turn Up
2018-06-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum is picking upMomentum in breadth figures is returning, with the McClellan Summation Index climbing. When it reaches 500 for the first time in months, it has led to an excellent risk/reward skew for stocks.The S&P 500’s annualized return ...

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Nasdaq Hits New High With Fewer Stocks Coming Along
2018-06-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Some tech stocks struggle to keep upThe S&P 500 Technology index has hit new highs the past two days, but fewer of its stocks are coming along. In January and March, more than 40% of its members hit 52-week highs, compared to only 15% on ...

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Few S&P Stocks Above Average As Copper Baffles Bulls
2018-06-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The biggest divergence since 2000As the S&P 500 hits a 50-day high, too few of its members are trading above their short-, medium, and long-term averages. The percentage of stocks trading above their averages is far below what we usually see.The ...

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Big Thrust In Up Volume As Junk Bond Metrics Diverge
2018-05-31 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Kind of a thrustWe still haven’t had a “breadth thrust” with more than 90% of NYSE volume flowing into advancing stocks. But Wednesday’s session had the best ratio since November 2016, nearly 400 sessions ago.A big Up Volume figure for the first ...

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Small Caps Lead As Staples Lose Relevance And Energy Can't Lose
2018-05-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The leading indexSmall cap stocks, via the Russell 2000 index, are leading the other major indexes in the race to new highs. It’s the only index that has reached a 52-week high in the past 30 days.Other times it led to new highs, it was an ...

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Breadth Reaches New High As Oil, Stocks Rally Together
2018-05-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A breakout in breadthThe Cumulative Advance/Decline Line has made a new all-time high.Since 1940, that has led to a smaller chance of a large decline going forward, and a smaller average drawdown. When the S&P has lagged the A/D Line like now, it ...

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S&P Breaks Out As Tech, Energy Highs Surge And

2018-05-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Small Caps Shine As Financial Conditions Tighten And VIX Drops
2018-05-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Small caps trying to drag us higherThe small-cap Russell 2000 is within 1% of an all-time high, while the S&P 500 is still more than 5% below.That’s usually taken as a universally good sign for stocks in general. It hasn’t been that easy, ...

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Nasdaq Breadth Is (Too) Good As Buyers Finally Persist Intraday
2018-04-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Tech breadth remains impressiveA few major Tech stocks get all the attention, throwing a shadow over all the other members. So far this year, the sector is showing some of the best breadth readings since 1990, with broad participation.Even if there ...

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Consumers Turn Bearish As Dow, Staples Decline
2018-04-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Consumers are buying…just not stocksThe latest Consumer Confidence survey shows more consumers expect stocks to decline than rally. That’s the first time since the November 2016 election that the U.S. consumer has been bearish on stocks.Other times ...

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Consumer Staples Have Been Historically Unstable
2018-04-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.So much for being a StapleConsumer Staples stocks have taken a big hit over the past couple of days (and weeks). Many of what had been considered safe stocks are down more than 5% in just two days. More than 25% of them are now trading at their ...

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Back Above A Technical Level As Volatility Drops And A/D Line Hits A High
2018-04-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Indexes reclaim technical levelsAccording to media reports, Tuesday’s jump in the Dow and S&P above their 50-day averages was important. The Dow does tend to have markedly better annualized returns when trading above its average.But as an all-clear ...

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No Thrust As Big Money Pulls Back
2018-04-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Two weeks and still no thrustStocks have been rallying for a couple of weeks, but there hasn’t yet been a 90% Up Volume day.Forward returns when there has been a 90% day in the first two weeks were excellent, not so much when not. That is a minor ...

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Wall Street Sentiment As Few Fidelity Funds Beat Cash
2018-04-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.An undervalued marketStocks are undervalued, at least according to Wall Street strategists. They expect the S&P 500 to end the year more than 10% above where it is, enough to suggest they think the index is undervalued.When they’ve been so adamant ...

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All Or Nothing As Every Financial And Dow Stock Declines
2018-04-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.All or nothingIn the past 11 sessions, there have been 8 all-or-nothing days, when Up Volume was above 80% or below 20%.Even bear markets rarely see this level of uncertainty. Forward returns had a strong tendency to be positive, especially over ...

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Failed Bounce And Put Purchases
2018-04-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Failed bounceBefore some modest after buying interest, the most important index in the world triggered a failed bounce.That’s one of the most feared patterns for bulls because it shows a complete lack of buying interest. The S&P did suffer ...

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Gold Miners Lag As Investment Managers Sell
2018-04-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Miners’ minor monthsGold mining stocks have underperformed gold prices by more than 10% over the past couple of months.Due to their higher volatility, this is considered a negative for gold prices going forward. There is some modest truth to this, ...

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Neutral Investors, With Soaring Small-Caps And Dow Theory Warning
2018-03-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Mom and pop just shrugIndividual investors have become neutral to one of the most extreme degrees in the past 15 years.That’s usually a good sign in a bull market, especially longer-term. It’s also been a good sign that there are more bears than ...

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Lopsided Volume Swings As MLPs Suffer Pessimism
2018-03-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Everybody out, then in, then out againDuring the past month, volume has been gyrating wildly between losing, winning, then losing securities. A 3-day average of the Up Volume Ratio keeps swinging from one extreme to the other.During uptrending ...

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A "Good" Correction As Silver Specs Give Up
2018-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Good vs bad correctionsIn these first two weeks following the Dow’s drop into a correction, it has followed the path of many “good” corrections. Those are times when the Dow fell 10% from a high, then no more than a further 7% during the next ...

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Correlations Go Back To Normal Without A Breadth Thrust
2018-02-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Correlations go back to normalAs stocks sold off, correlations between sectors rose as they usually do and are back at a normal level. That has reversed a period when correlations were almost at the lowest level in history, eclipsed only by the ...

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Best Recovery Ever As Investors Flee Bonds
2018-02-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Best recovery everAfter falling into a correction a week ago, the Dow Industrials index has rallied every day and added 5.6%. That ranks among its best-ever recoveries after falling more than 10% below its high for the first time in months.Other ...

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Panic And Reverse
2018-02-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Panic and reverseStocks suffered a panic day on Monday, then reversed early losses to close higher. That matches several other instances that led to consistent returns going forward.There was volatile back-and-forth then another run at the prior ...

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Cornucopia Of Extremes
2018-02-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Breadth Gets Oversold As Consumer Confidence Rises
2018-02-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Oversold alreadyAt least one primary breadth indicator is showing that recent selling pressure is extreme. It’s rare to see the McClellan Oscillator this stretched to the downside just a few days after an all-time high in the S&P.Similar readings ...

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Fund Managers Ignore Cash As Streaks End
2018-01-31 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Fund managers still hate cashMutual fund managers are holding a near-record low amount of cash according to the latest figures. That was easier to justify when interest rates were nearly zero but gets harder as rates rise.Their cash deficit is now ...

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Options Traders Pour Into Calls As Breadth Lags
2018-01-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Forget stock, call options have more oomphRetail traders have returned in a big way. We saw on Friday the surge in brokerage transactions, and that has bled over into the options market. The smallest of options traders put on a skyrocketing number ...

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Record Gaps As Investors Pour In
2018-01-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Green every morningStocks have been gapping up in the morning almost every day. During the past 30 sessions, more than 85% of them have seen the futures open higher than the prior close.That is – by far – the most since futures began trading in ...

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Dollar Ignores Rates As S&P Shows Exhaustion
2018-01-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Ignoring the rise in ratesDespite a steady rise in interest rates, the U.S. dollar has declined more than 10% over the past year.That’s unusual, especially given the magnitude of the fall in the dollar and the rise in rates. The other times it ...

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Doubling Up Moving Average As S&P Members Get Overbought
2018-01-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Doubling up the averagesThe S&P is 3% above its short-term moving average, 6% above its medium-term and 13% above its long-term.It hasn’t managed to “double up” its gains above each successive moving average in 20 years. Similar bouts of momentum ...

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Gapping Up And Nasdaq New Highs
2018-01-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Burst Of New Highs As Optimism Hits 30-Year High
2018-01-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A rare burst of new highsMost of the major indexes and sectors had more than 25% of their stocks hit a 52-week high on Tuesday. Only Staples and Utilities saw fewer than 10% of their stocks hit a new high. On average across indexes and sectors, 27% ...

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Gap Up While Bears Scatter And New Highs Jump
2018-01-17 | Jason Goepfert


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The S&P's Momentum Streak Aided By Industrials
2018-01-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The S&P’s consistent, rapid rallyThe most important index in the world has rallied consistently for the past 1, 3, and 6 months. It has also picked up its gains, nearing or exceeding its upper Bollinger Band on daily, weekly, and monthly time ...

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Seasonality, Utilities, and Junk
2017-11-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Market Oddities And Nikkei Reversal
2017-11-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Financials Trying To Emerge From Oversold
2017-09-11 | Jason Goepfert


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The Dow's Dominant Stock
2017-07-31 | Jason Goepfert


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Another Jump In New Lows
2017-06-08 | Jason Goepfert


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New Lows Among The S&P
2017-05-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Materials, Info Tech New High Surge
2017-01-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Stocks Struggle To Match The S&P
2017-01-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Nasdaq's Bad Breadth, Too
2017-01-07 | Jason Goepfert


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Breadth Thrust In Euro Stocks
2017-01-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Surge In Financials At 52-Week Highs
2016-12-09 | Jason Goepfert


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All Four Major Indexes At New Highs
2016-11-22 | Jason Goepfert


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ETF and Sector Indicators at an Extreme - Sept 30 2016
2016-09-30 | Eric D. Brown


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Utilities Have Been (Too) Strong
2016-07-07 | Jason Goepfert


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Almost Every Member Of The Dow Is Rising
2016-05-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Utilities Average Is Stretched
2016-05-05 | Jason Goepfert


With utility sector stocks doing so well, it's no surprise that most members of the Dow Jones Utility Average are trading above their moving averages. The rally has been swift and sustained enough that more than 95% of the stocks in the index are now trading above their 10-, 20-, 50- and 200-day ...

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Bad Breadth On A Good Day
2016-04-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Up Volume Going For 3 In A Row Above 80%
2016-02-17 | Jason Goepfert


There is still a few hours to go in today's session, but buyers are working on a third straight day of impressive pressure.Friday, Tuesday and today (so far) have all seen more than 80% of volume on the NYSE flowing into stocks that are positive on the day.From the intraday charts:The last time ...

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Italian Stocks Are The Worst Of The Worst
2016-02-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Shanghai Breadth Nears Record For Selling Persistence
2016-01-28 | Jason Goepfert


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Breadth Flush Pt 2 - New Lows
2016-01-20 | Jason Goepfert


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Breadth Flush
2016-01-20 | Jason Goepfert


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Selling Off After We're Already Oversold
2016-01-13 | Jason Goepfert


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About us

Sundial Capital Research is an independent investment research firm dedicated to the application of mass psychology to the financial markets. Sundial publishes the SentimenTrader.com website.

Our focus is not market timing per se, but rather risk management. That may be a distinction without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We study signs that suggest it is time to raise or lower market exposure as a function of risk relative to probable reward. It is all about risk-adjusted expectations given existing evidence.

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