Posts tagged as Breadth

A historic 3-day buying thrust is changing sentiment

The past 3 sessions have seen a record skew in positive stocks and volume. Our CNN Fear & Greed proxy model is curling higher after extreme pessimism.

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MACD buy signals - continued

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Change in short term trend

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Historic thrust exceeds other post-crash rallies

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McClellan indicators show negative momentum is easing

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Another surge as Dow nears 20% threshold

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A buying binge of historic proportions

The last two days have seen extremely heavy buying interest, with at least 80% up volume days. Stocks in the euro zone are giving MACD buy signals.

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Buy signals

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Back to back buying thrust

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HiLo Logic Index suggests the wash out is about done

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A day when everybody went in

The TICK shows that more than 60% of stocks traded on an uptick at the same time, a record high. Up volume on Tuesday was overwhelming.

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Everything is rallying

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Signs of a surge

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TICK shows record buying pressure

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Market overview: history in the making

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Let's assume the worst

If we assume the worst, that we're in a bear market and recession, we can see the average path. Fewer than 15% of small caps are in uptrends.

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One of the most unique moments in market history

So far, stocks are tracking the other time trading was halted in 1997. Almost all stocks on the German DAX are now oversold.

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What I'm looking at - bullish percent, U.S. recession, historic volatility, historic overseas selling

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90% up day

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Wholesale selling pressure

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What I'm looking at - rally ahead, new lows breadth, Put/Call, Treasuries

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A(nother) week for the ages

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All-in...and then all-out

The Dow Industrials has seen a cluster of days with every member rising or falling. On the NYSE, too, many days are seeing extremes in breadth.

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What I'm looking at - down days, cyclicals vs. defensives, NAAIM, Russia

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A dead-cat bounce (?) amid near-record volatility

Despite multiple 4% rally days, Up Issues and Up Volume has been mediocre with no 90% up days. The 7-day range in the S&P is getting historic.

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Fewer than 40% of S&P stocks above 200-day average

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Big drawdown after new high in Advance/Decline Line

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What I'm looking at - sentiment, Put/Call spikes, Treasury yields plunge, breadth reversal

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What a week

The Nasdaq Composite is the only "big four" index to hold above its 200-day average. Our CNN Fear & Greed proxy model fell to 0%.

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A week for the ages

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An extreme in extremes

This week has seen one of the fastest-ever declines from an all-time high. Breadth metrics for S&P and NDX stocks are hitting historic extremes.

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What I'm looking at - breadth for the S&P, NASDAQ, and Dow, stocks vs ETFs, stocks vs bonds, VIX spike and S&P's weekly drawdown

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Traders are showing get-me-out behavior

This week,, we've seen a level of selling pressure that has rarely been matched. Fewer than half of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day average.

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Energy washout

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What I'm looking at - New Home Sales, sharp pullback, oversold breadth, safe haven sentiment

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Extreme 2-3 day selling pressure

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Bulls' nightmare week

The past 2 days have seen a historic selloff in stocks, cycling from new highs to multi-month lows. This week saw back-to-back 90% down days.

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What I'm looking at - breadth (from multiple angles), VIX spike, volume spike

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Warnings spike as complacency ends

Technical warning signs have piled up over the past month. The Nasdaq 100 has relieved its overbought condition for the first time in 3 months.

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What I'm looking at - volatility is back, breadth, tech plunge, gold:silver ratio

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Warnings spike as streaks end

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What I'm looking at - breadth warnings, USD's drop, gold's rally

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Stocks can't keep up...and a dirty little secret

A record number of S&P 500 stocks are falling behind the index itself. How to be a successful newsletter writer - don't ever be wrong!

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What I'm looking at - Building Permits, USD, MACD buy signals

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Market overview: tech and growth stocks surge

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What I'm looking at - standard deviations, tech breadth, relative strength, USD

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Less greed and more warnings

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What I'm looking at - new highs, job openings, VIX, economic surprise

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What I'm looking at - grind higher, Put/Call, rally's distance, S&P 500 breadth

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What I'm looking at - growth vs. value, stocks vs. commodities, Hindenburg Omen, Shanghai Index

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Market & fundamentals overview: the rally continues

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Half Of Nasdaq Stocks Are In Bear Markets

Half of the stocks on the Nasdaq are in bear markets, and nearly 70% are in corrections. The S&P 500 hasn't had a 7% drawdown in a year.

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What I'm looking at - sentiment, McClellan Summation, new highs, liquidity premium

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What I'm looking at - emerging markets, % of stocks in a correction, copper, oil producers

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Sentiment Is Normalizing As Technical Warnings Trigger

Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence shows sentiment is starting to normalize. The Hindenburg Omen is triggering again.

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What I'm looking at - ISM, Hindenburg Omen, oil, semiconductors, China

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'Big Four' Indexes Register Warnings As Sentiment Recedes

All 'big four' equity indexes have triggered technical warning signs. Our Optimism Index for stocks is pulling back from an extreme level.

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Market & fundamentals overview: the long awaited pullback

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What I'm looking at - emerging markets, utilities breadth, AAII, Taiwan

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Split Markets As Volatility Spikes

The market is split, with the HiLo Logic Index rising above 3. Volatility has jumped, with the VIX and VXO spiking 50%.

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What I'm looking at - utilities, sector breadth, Hang Seng, copper's plunge

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What I'm looking at - split breadth, sudden crash, VIX jump, copper's crash, gap down

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Market & fundamentals overview: the overdue pullback?

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What I'm looking at - continued low volatility, Bollinger Bands, AAII

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An Extreme - And Protracted - Stretch Of Optimism

There has been an extreme number of indicators showing optimism over the past month. More than 25% of S&P 500 stocks are overbought.

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What I'm looking at - Cass Freight Index, strength of the trend, more breadth, Put/Call

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5-Year High In Bull Markets Amid Deteriorating Fundamentals

More than 85% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day averages. There is a high and rising number of stocks with declining operating earnings.

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The Market "Un-Splits" As Momentum Is Relentless

The HiLo Logic Index shows an un-split market, and momentum has helped stocks hit new all-time highs more than 25 times in 3 months.

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What I'm looking at - relentless rally, bullish percent index, recession probabilities, abandoning utilities

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What I'm looking at - Medium Term Volatility, sentiment, jumpy VIX, NASDAQ breadth, palladium

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What I'm looking at - more MACD signals, economic policy uncertainty, Baltic Dry Index, copper:gold

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What I'm looking at: MACD breadth, time extreme, precious metal's momentum

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What I'm looking at: breadth thrusts, financial conditions, USD, copper

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What I'm looking at - 2019 vs 2018, equity Put/Call, Value Line, breadth surge, AUD

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Near-Record Levels Of Optimism

Dumb Money Confidence has spiked while Smart Money is retreating.Near-record optimismA year ago, the “dumb money” was the most bearish in 20 years. Now, a year later, they’re the 2nd-most optimistic, barely eclipsed by a few days in April 2010. Indicators focused on the “smart money” are near ...

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What I'm looking at - sentiment, LEI, Hong Kong volatility, strong momentum, Mexico surge

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What I'm looking at - new highs, smart money/dumb money, emerging markets, optimism, bond Optix

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What I'm looking at - ex U.S. breakouts, Europe, CNN Fear & Greed, commodities, high yield bonds, breadth, put/call

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Net New Highs On NYSE And Nasdaq Hit 6-Month High

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What I'm looking at - breakouts, new highs, breadth thrusts, equity put/call, and Pound's surge

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What I'm looking at - OECD, advance-decline line, VIX, NASDAQ models + sentiment indicators

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What I'm looking at - HiLo, coffee, Sweden PMI, AAII and blow-off top

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What I'm looking at - Titanic Syndrome, U.S. breadth, overseas breadth, biotech, VIX jump, seasonality

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Looking At A Potential Risk Failure

We're seeing potential failure in some warning signs, as financial conditions ease.Failed warnings…maybeDue to extremely high optimism across a broad array of indicators, our  Medium-Term Risk Level has been elevated for a few weeks. And yet, the S&P 500 is higher now than when risk first ...

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What I'm looking at - Intermediate Term Optix, New Home Sales, small caps breadth, large caps breadth, gold volatility

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A Cluster Of Warnings

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Cluster funkIf we focus on one particular data point too much, then we risk getting blindsided by a structural market change or simply a failed signal. That’s ...

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Big cluster of Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome warning signs

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What I'm looking at - Building Permits, VIX Put/Call, long term breadth, high yield bonds, Value vs. Growth

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A Bad Case Of The Splits

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.A bad case of the splitsThe Nasdaq exchange continues to see an abnormally large number of stocks hitting 52-week highs and 52-week lows. More than 3% of ...

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What I'm looking at - healthcare, France, GDP growth, MSCI World Index, breadth

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A High HiLo

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.HiLo is highOver the past week, there have been an increasing number of signs of a “split” market, with many winning and losing stocks. That has caused the ...

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Double Trouble

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Double troubleFor the first time in several months, two technical warning signs triggered on the Nasdaq exchange. There hasn’t been a cluster, and they ...

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What I'm looking at - breadth & sentiment, yield curve, volatility, Consumer Comfort

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Double technical warning sign on Nasdaq

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What I'm looking at - OECD, low volatility, SKEW, Bullish Percent Index, emerging markets

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Why Investors' Money Market Rush Isn't Necessarily A Buy Signal

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Money market mysteryAssets in money market funds continue to ramp higher. Knee-jerk contrarians will take that as a buy signal, but it’s not that easy. Assets ...

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Speculative Options Trading Picks Up

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Options optimismThanks to a lot of volume in index options, the CBOE’s total put/call ratio dropped to a very low level. Over the past two weeks, it has moved ...

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What I'm looking at - sentiment froth?, new highs expansion, Hong Kong, New Zealand

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One Of These Things Is Not Like The Others

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.One of these things is not like the othersOut of the “big four” equity indexes, the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq are all sitting at new all-time highs. The small-cap ...

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What I'm looking at - breakouts, Put/Call, NASDAQ breadth, new highs

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2 Participation Problems

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Dearth of uptrendsMost of what we've looked at in recent months has suggested higher prices for stocks. There are maybe 1-3 times per year where pretty much ...

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What I'm looking at - Chemical Activity Barometer, Risk Appetite, Sensex, NASDAQ breadth

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What I'm looking at - ex-U.S. stocks, NYSE Up Issues, Economic Surprise, more overseas breadth

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What I'm looking at - stocks in a correction, KBW Bank Index, sentiment indicators, DAX breadth, high yield

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What I'm looking at - bear market, profit warnings, VIX Put/Call, homebuilders, manufacturers' new orders

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What I'm looking at - correlations, Fidelity Funds Breadth, KBW Bank Index, SPY Liquidity Premium, Value

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What I'm looking at - TLT Optix, Leading vs. Coincident, Russell range, DAX breadth, REITs, Smart Money Index

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The Bond Market's "Sorry, Not Sorry" Moment

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bond boondoggleBond traders are often considered the smart money, or at least smarter than equity investors. It might be an issue now because high-yield bonds ...

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Thursday Color - Bond Jitters, Energy Stock Losses, AAII Bulls Jump, DAX Breakout; Dollar's 100-Day

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What I'm looking at - Chinese profits, Nikkei breadth, Germany breakout, VIX Put/Call, fund flows

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Tuesday Color - VIX below 14, card rates, transport services, slow growth, utility momentum

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Thursday Color - Momo rebound, AAII stagnant, sector breadth lag, MLP pessimism

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What I'm looking at - momentum's resurgence, new highs-lows, Index Put/Call, job openings, soft data

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Wednesday Color - Small-cap outflows, financial & energy breadth, natty drop, energy options

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What I'm looking at - Fear/Greed, Down Volume, Arms Index, directionless S&P, HiLo Logic Index

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Late Cycle Behavior Triggers Crash In Insider Confidence

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Late cycle behaviorInvestors have become concerned that we’re late in the business cycle and nearing recession. News articles catering to the fears are ...

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Monday Color - Breadth whipsaws, small traders, surprise spread, bond sentiment

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What I'm looking at - CEO confidence, Put/Call spike, new highs %, sentiment divergence, FTSE 100

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Thursday Color - Depressed investors, negative gamma, Anti-Zweig thrust, signs of anxiety

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S&P stocks are starting to roll over, but...

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Manufactured pessimismA popular economic data series has tumbled into recession territory. The ISM Manufacturing survey has cratered over the past year and ...

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Wednesday Color - 1% losses, sensitive sectors to ISM data, no cash cushion, breadth anomolies

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What I'm looking at - Index Put/Call, Hard vs. Soft data, earnings estimates collapse, Arms Index, REITs

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What I'm looking at - MACD sell signal, Business Climate Indicator, VIX, different surprise indices, gold's 4Q rally

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Stocks and the dollar are "joined at the pip"

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Joined at the pipThere usually isn’t much of a correlation between movement in stocks and the dollar. As much as investors want to assign a narrative linking ...

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Thursday Color - Gold flow and open interest, bond flow, VIX call buying, Hang Seng rollover

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What I'm looking at - IPO fear, Index Put/Call, Consumer Confidence, Baltic Dry Index, Bullish Percent Index

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The last 2 times there was impeachment talk, this happened

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Impeach thisPolitical will seems to be growing to open an official impeachment inquiry against President Trump. That would mark the 3rd episode in the history ...

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Wednesday color - Utility surge impact on stocks/gold, breadth rollover, skittish signs, Egypt

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Small options traders bought this much protection only 3 times in 20 years

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Small traders being testedThe smallest of options traders keep buying a large amount of put options. Over the past 6 weeks, they’ve spent more than 24% of ...

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What I'm looking at - South Korean exports, HiLo, gold's top?, no daily movements, India's surge

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Monday color - Nifty rebound, a rocky week, small traders

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McClellan Summation above zero for 169 days

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What I'm looking at - Economic Surprise, low volatility, breadth, McClellan Summation, DAX

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Thursday Color - Russell vs S&P Volatility, Summation Extremes, IWM Inflow, AAII Bulls

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A Big Jump In Big Money Bulls

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Big money gets bullishThe latest survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch that polls large money managers with nearly $700 billion under management showed a ...

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Wednesday Color - FOMC Bias, Emerging Recovery, Japan, Fund Flow

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What I'm looking at - manufacturing still weak, housing recovery?, bearish tops, NASDAQ breadth, new highs

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What I'm looking at - Germany, Smart Money Index, volume-based breadth, oil spike, Equity Put/Call

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Up Volume 15-day average cycles from 40% to 63%

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Bond Bulls Curb Their Enthusiasm

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Break in bond bullsFor the first time in more than 9 months, optimism on bonds has come down to neutral territory. That ends one of the longest streaks in ...

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Nikkei 225 sees jump in stocks at 1-month high

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What's Better Than Bonds?

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Beautiful breadthThe Cumulative Advance/Decline Line for most of the major indexes are at or near all-time highs. Same for every one of the major S&P 500 ...

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Thursday Color - Breakaway Gaps, Japan Jumps, Small-Caps Pop, Dollar

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What I'm looking at - OECD, small caps, various breadth indicators

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A Historic Turn In Fortunes

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Growth no mo’ momoThe swift exodus from momentum stocks has hit those classified as “growth” hard, especially relative to those considered to be “value.” The ...

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Wednesday Color - Russell vs Nasdaq, Sector Divvies, Bond Whipsaw, Jumps Above BBands

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What I'm looking at - NASDAQ McClellan, Rotation, Greed & Fear, Small Business Hiring, world economy

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Gold's Shocking Drop

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Gold’s bull runETF traders have consistently poured money into gold funds, even during Thursday’s big drop, which was a “shocking” decline.It started to fall ...

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Monday Color - Better Appetite, Seasonal Fears, Expensive Utes, Overseas Jump, Sugar Dump

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Why So Defensive?

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.High on defensivesThe most defensive sectors of the market, consumer staples and utilities, saw a jump in the number of stocks rising to 52-week highs.This ...

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Wall Street Is The Most Confused In 20 Years

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.The Street is behind and confusedWall Street analysts have underestimated the growth in S&P 500 company earnings growth for a year, one of the longest ...

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A Trade-Related Gap

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What I'm looking at - Recession Probability Model, emerging markets, Treasury yields, breadth, Consumer Confidence

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Imminent Recession (So They Say)

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.An unequal monthAn index that equally-weights each of the stocks in the S&P 500 badly under-performed the capitalization-weighted version of the index that ...

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Wednesday Color - Wall Street Pessimism, Utility Surge, Overseas Flow, Copper

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Sectors In Sync Makes Investors Crabby

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.All up or all downHalf of the days so far this month have seen every major S&P 500 sector move up or down together. This makes it one of the most "all ...

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Friday Color - Equity Outflow, Breadth High, Oscillator Extremes, Mexico Rebound, Dollar Pain

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Wednesday Color - Stocks Down + Bonds Up, MACD Sell, Energy Lows, Gold RSI

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Tuesday Color - Social Pessimism, Big Drops, Brazil Breadth, Ag Bears

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What I'm looking at: National Activity Index, SPY breadth, short term breakout, bond yields, Ifo

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Friday Color - Wipeout, Extremes, HiLo Too High

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What I'm looking at - State Coincident Index, Conference Board, McClellan Summation, TLT Optix, Treasury yields

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What I'm looking at - Put/Call spike, Rydex flows, Rydex breadth, Economic Surprise & bonds

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Gold Beats Stocks' Double-Digit Jump

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Rising and falling togetherThe major sectors within the S&P 500 have mostly been moving in concert, so correlations have risen quickly over the past month. ...

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Stocks Have Gone Absolutely Nowhere

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Going nowhereThe most benchmarked index in the world has gone nowhere for over a year and a half. The S&P 500 was just trading at the same level it was at in ...

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Tuesday Color - Overseas Rebound, Sector Recoveries, HY vs IG Spreads, VIX Drop

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S&P 500 after McOsc rises above 0 and McSumm never went < +100

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What I'm looking at - economic conditions, German manufacturing, Equity Put/Call, New Highs & Lows, Dollar vs. Gold

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Panic-Level Selling Last Week As Bonds Hit Historic Extreme

Safe haven heavenFriday provided some relief, but the past few weeks have been rocky for stocks. In response, investors moved aggressively into havens like bonds and gold. The 3-week change in the total return on bonds and gold are so far above that for stocks that it’s neared a 30-year ...

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Market overview: combining technicals & fundamentals

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Friday Color - Risk Off, Options Anxiety, Many Lows, Big MOVE, Sector Extremes

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What I'm looking at - Liquidity Premium, Bullish Percent Index, Down Volume, Equity Put/Call, Value Line Geometric Index

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Thursday Color - Turmoil, Double Losses, Recession Talk, Financials, Sectors

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The End Of A Historic Streak Of Terribleness

Beating expectationsFor the first time in 6 months, economic reports in the U.S. haven’t totally sucked. The Citi Economic Surprise Index is starting to rise quickly, as economists deflated their estimates enough for the economic data to catch up. This ends the longest terrible streak since the ...

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A High HiLo As Investors Rush Into Cash

High HiLoA breadth indicator popularized several decades ago is highlighting a historically split market. To one of the largest degrees in years, there are a lot of winning and a lot of losing stocks at the same time.Per Investopedia, the HiLo Logic Index:The high-low index compares stocks that ...

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Tuesday Color - Gamma, Dislocations, Merval & Hang Seng, Emerging Fund Outflow, Bond Optix

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S&P 500 After Double 70% Up Volume Days Following A Low

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Monday Color - 8 Straight 1%-ers, Large Calls, Corrections, Gold Buyers, Emerging Momentum

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Volatility Spike - What Happens Next

One and doneMonday’s session was notable for several reasons, mainly its shocking quality after investors became accustomed to much smaller moves. Wall Street generally believes this is not a “one and done” and there is more volatility to come.Historically, the argument for that is not ...

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Friday Color - Lows Recede, Summation Rollover, Bad Ag, Bond Bulls (Again)

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The Stock-Bond Relationship Is Out Of Whack

Strained relationshipThe drop in stocks over the past week didn’t happen in isolation, as traders fled to the perceived safety of the bond market. That moved the Stock/Bond Ratio to an extreme level, even while the S&P remains in a generally positive environment.This has typically resolved in ...

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Thursday Color - Islands, Emerging Streak & Breadth, Signs Of Anxiety, Gold

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Shocks' Strong Tendency To Recover

Shocking^3We’ve looked at “shock days” quite a bit over the years, most recently in May. Monday’s session exceeded the one in May, with a move more than 3 deviations beyond what investors have become accustomed to over the past year.Swift, sharp declines like this almost never end up morphing ...

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Wednesday Color - Bulls Gone, Put Volume, Energy Drop, Asian Axiety

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Only Black Monday And 9/11 Were Worse Than This

Cluster muckSigns of a “split” market started to trigger in mid-July and continued to accrue into the first days of August. This has been one of the tighter clusters of warning signs we’ve seen over the past 50 years.By the time some of these trigger, stocks have already declined somewhat. By ...

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Tuesday Color - Opening Volatility, New Lows, Sector Extremes, Big Outflows

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Gaps And Warnings And Volatility, Oh My

NOTE: This is an excerpt from Monday's premium note.SplatTraders get to start the new week staring at large losses in the futures. That follows a week that was pretty much straight down, with the S&P 500 losing ground for the past 5 sessions.We haven't faced this kind of opening pessimism since ...

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Monday Color - Gaps, Volatility Jump, Options Buying, Warning Cluster, Hong Kong

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Investors Keep Hoarding Cash

NOTE: This will be the last Lite post for the next week.Lagging the market, and cashThe broader stock market has done well over the past month, but an abnormally large – and increasing – number of Fidelity Select sector funds are lagging even the return on cash.It’s not “odd” funds like precious ...

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Wednesday Color - ETF Asset Drop, P/C Ratio, Fidelity Sectors, Warning Signs, Bond Bulls, Debt Contraction, Mexico

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Tightest Cluster Of Small-Cap Weakness Since '99

A large “small” divergenceOver the past 30 days, there have now been 6 sessions when the S&P 500 was at or near a 52-week high, but the ratio of the small-cap Russell 2000 index to the S&P sunk to a 52-week low. That’s the tightest cluster of days since April 1999.Large, rounded peaks in the ...

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Tuesday Color - Gold vs Yen, Russell Lag, S&P Divergence, Mexican Breadth, Smart Money Selling

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200 Reasons Why The Hindenburg Omen Matters

Warning signsFor the first time since October 2018, there are hints of trouble brewing beneath the market. While major indexes have been at or near all-time highs, under the surface there are more and more stocks losing momentum, and there has been a split with many securities at 52-week highs ...

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Bullish Options Traders, Buying Climaxes, Silver Flow, Hedgers' Bets, Breadth

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Hindenburg Omen Triggers For The 1st Time In 3 Months

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Friday Color - Gold Momentum, Internal Warnings, Mexico

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Momentum Is Waning And Stocks Are Starting To Split

Six months of momentumThe McClellan Summation Index has now gone 6 months in positive territory.That’s a long streak compared to others since 1962. Momentum is very difficult to time, almost by definition, but by the time this measure of breadth momentum went this long above zero, forward ...

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Thursday Color - Fading 'Mo, Energy Stock Drop, Titanic Signal, Cotton, Euro Junk

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Wednesday Color - Dow Stocks, Dumb Money, Gamma, Microsoft Expectations, Germany

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Friday Color - Yield Curve, Small Caps, XLU vs XLE, Bonds, Brazil

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Thursday Color - Dovish Fed, Sector Extremes, Round #, Value Line Lag, Twitter Bulls

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Tuesday Color - High Yield Rally, Sector Breadth, Recession Risk, Yield Drop

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This Is One Of Tech's Quickest Recoveries

New highs, but...The S&P jumped to a record high along with several other indexes on Monday (and Tuesday) but fewer stocks were coming along for the ride both days. The percentage of stocks on the NYSE and within the S&P itself has shrunk from when the indexes moved toward new highs in June.That ...

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Tuesday Color - Tech's Recovery, Gold Loss, Sector Breadth, Semi's, Japan's Surprises

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Monday Color - High Gap, Weekly Indicators, Sector Breadth

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Thursday Color - Gas, Wall St Strategists, Sector Breadth, Lagging U.S.

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Friday Color - Massive Flows, Dollar Trend, Stock/Bond Rally, Whiplash, Sector Highs

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Thursday Color - Morning Gap, Sector Breadth, Gold Breakout

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Wednesday Color - Everything Rallies, Bond Flow and Vol, Within 1%, Energy, France

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Split S&P 500 Between Highs And Bear Markets

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The Most Split S&P 500 In History

Split indexWith the recent surge in stocks, more than 20% of them in the S&P 500 hit a 52-week high. But the percentage of stocks mired in a bear market, or at least 20% off their highs, hasn’t come down by much.This leaves a split index, with a lot of stocks at either a new high, or in bear ...

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Monday Color - Tiny Range, Options Traders, A Split S&P, Empire Fail

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Why Aren't Hedgies Buying?

Another near-thrustEnough stocks have risen during the past two weeks, with enough volume flow, that it has nearly triggered another Zweig Breadth Thrust.Like we’ve seen with a lot of indicators over the past month or so, what’s most notable about these readings isn’t necessarily what they’re ...

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Friday Color - Bond Flow (!), Recession Risk, Breadth Thrust, Gold Options, Stock Screen

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A Tale Of 2 Sectors

A tale of two sectorsMost utility stocks have been rising over the past 3 weeks and are trading above their 50-day averages. Few energy stocks can boast the same.When there has been this wide of a divergence between those two sectors, the broader market had a strong tendency to rise with only ...

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Advance/Decline Line At New High

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Utility vs Energy Stocks In Uptrends

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Wednesday Color - Reverval, Outflows, Overseas Surges, Copper

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Defensive Stocks Dominate The New High List - Does It Matter?

A defensive new high listAcross the equity market, securities at a 52-week high have expanded. Same goes for companies within the S&P 500. And within that index, it’s been more of the defensive sectors that have seen the best participation.While that suggests a potentially worrisome risk-off ...

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Small Traders Buy Record Hedges Even As Financials Surge

Financial recoveryFor the first time since early 2018, more than a quarter of financial stocks within the S&P 500 hit a 52-week high.This kind of a surge has been good for the sector, with gains over the next year every time.In 2000, this jump in new highs among financial stocks led to a 4% ...

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Tuesday Color - Gaps Up, Bond Flow, Weird Volatility, Sector Highs

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Monday Color - New Highs, Material Gain, Financials, Gold, Small Traders, 5 Straight

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A Big Jobs Miss As Highs Surge

JobsWe saw on Thursday that a big miss in the ADP report possibly meant a big miss in the Nonfarm Payroll report today, and if it dove to a 5-year low, would be a bad sign for stocks. The report missed, but wasn't bad enough to trigger the 5-year low. So at least there's that.But the report did ...

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Friday Color - Jobs, Econ Surprises, 4 Gains, Breadth, Energy, Gold

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Thursday Color - Bond Moves, Yield Curve, Jobs, REITs & Utes, New Highs, Mexico

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Buyers' 1-2 Punch For Stocks

A one-two rallyThe S&P 500 fell to a 50-day low on Monday, and the charts didn’t look good, but they hid a lot of underlying potential. Both Monday and Tuesday saw eager buying pressure under the surface, and Tuesday’s one-day jump in the S&P was the largest in nearly six months.When the index ...

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Buying Thrust Off A Low

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Tuesday's Jump, Breadth Recovery, Bitcoin, Corn

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Tuesday Color - Bond Volatility And Optimism, Gold, Flows, Tech Breadth

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Monday Color - Cycle Peak, De-Risking, Silver, Breadth Extremes

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Why This Has Been A Healthy Pullback

From new high to downtrendBarely a month after it was sitting at an all-time high, the S&P 500 fell far enough and fast enough to close below its 200-day average.This is one of the index’s quicker turnarounds from being at a multi-year high to falling below its average. When it had spent at ...

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Friday Color - More Gaps, Peso, Outflows, Bond Binge

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Confidence, Staples, May Loss, Options Fear

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Tuesday Midday Color - Shanghai, , DAX, Bond Bulls, Euro Sentiment

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Friday Midday Color - Dow's 5th Loss, Energy Breadth, Utes, Social Negatives

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Thursday Midday Color - Panic, Few Bulls, Asian Slide

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This Has Happened To Tech Only Twice Before

From first to worstStocks have lost one of their biggest drivers. Tech stocks have powered much of the rally through April, and then fell hard. The sector was leading the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors, and then fell to the worst among them over the past few weeks.That does not happen often, and ...

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Tuesday Midday Color - Shorts, Emerging Mkts, Sector Extremes

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Friday Midday Color - Bonds, Renewed Momo, Overseas Extremes

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Traders Are Panicking The Most Since The Financial Crisis

More momentum miscuesSigns of waning momentum are everywhere. One of the more impressive signs of intense underlying buying was in the Dow Industrials, where the McClellan Summation Index held above 1,000 for nearly three months, until now.Other times that extreme momentum finally ended over the ...

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Wednesday Midday Color - Big Outflows, More Hedging, Falling Momo

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Momentum Traders' First Real Test

Testing momentumIn early January, stocks registered a Zweig Breath Thrust when Up Volume quickly swung from oversold to overbought. This week, the indicator hit an oversold level for the first time, testing momentum traders’ conviction.Other times that months passed between a thrust and the ...

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Tuesday Midday Color - More Gaps, Breadth (Down) Thrusts, Overseas Drops

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Sentiment Is Curling

Summation finally weakensWe’ve discussed the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indexes a lot in recent months, because they have been showing notable readings of momentum. That’s starting to ease with the long-term Summation Index, which dropped below 750 for the first time in months, ending ...

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Friday Midday Color - Pre-Market Fear, Failures, Overseas Extremes, Momentum Drops

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Thursday Midday Color - First Pullback, Weak Sectors, Returning Investors

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Wednesday Midday Color - Vol Surge, Dow Drops, Sector Extremes

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4 Energetic Extremes

Energy extremesThe selling pressure earlier this week in the energy sector triggered several shorter-term extremes in breadth. Most of those stocks fell to their lowest in a month, below their volatility bands. Few held above their short-term moving averages.When the sector had rebounded more ...

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Friday Midday Color - Momentum Market, Energy Washout, Russell Breakout

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Why Beans Should Bounce

No oomph in OscillatorThe McClellan Oscillator hasn’t been able to get above zero even as the S&P 500 and other indexes tick to new highs on multiple days.Over the past 57 years, this has been a negative sign of underlying weakness for stocks, though the sample is small, and the most recent ...

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Wednesday Midday Color - Sagging Summation, Missing MoMo, Strategist Switch

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A Shocking Volatility Twist With Recovering Financials

Volatility twistOver the past month, volatility in big tech stocks has been lower than volatility in stocks specifically chosen because of their staid nature, according to Bloomberg data. Historical volatility on the Nasdaq 100 fell below that of the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index, a rare twist ...

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Tuesday Midday Color - No Cash, Bullish On Bonds, Financials' Breadth

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Monday Midday Color - Cranky Calls, Big Breadth, Can't-Miss Swiss

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Breadth Breathes As A Bearish Candle Engulfs Oil

Breadth takes a breatherIn January, breadth momentum was so impressive that the McClellan Oscillator held above 50 for over a month. Since then, it hasn’t climbed above that level even as stocks made great gains.This is a divergence that has triggered near several important market peaks, but the ...

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Friday Midday Color - Flows, Breadth Extremes, Shanghai

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Thursday Midday Color - Dollar Bets, Big Breadth, Twitter Junk

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Stocks Have A Participation Problem

Debt declinesWhen stocks rally, investors tend to borrow more against their shares. There is a high positive correlation between changes in stock indexes and changes in margin debt.That’s breaking down this year, though. As stocks have rallied, investors have held back on their debt. It’s not as ...

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Wednesday Midday Color - Bond Bulls, High-Yield Breadth, Lagging S&P Stocks, Tech Values

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A Most Excellent Recovery

An excellent recoveryThe S&P 500’s new high marks an end to the correction, one of the S&P’s most impressive recoveries from a major decline from a prior all-time high. Other times it made a somewhat similarly-sized recovery over a quick- to moderate time frame, it tended to keep going, but it ...

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Tuesday Midday Color - S&P Recovery, Pound Probabilities, Mixed Breadth

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4 Reasons Why Health Care Could Rebound

Health care’s bad weekHealth care stocks have gotten hit, and it’s erased their year-to-date gain, while the S&P 500 has held up. The divergence between the two this far into a year is unusual.Other times health care underperformed by more than 5% through this many sessions into a year, it led ...

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Thursday Midday Color - Health Care, Opex

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Wednesday Midday Color - Tech Breakout & Breadth, Screens

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Tuesday Midday Color

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Does The Low Volume Really Matter?

Low-volume rallyEach of the past three weeks has seen the S&P 500 inch ever closer to a new high. At the same time, investors have grown increasingly comfortable, as volume continues to decline and is now more than 10% below its yearly average.It’s entirely normal for volume to ratchet higher ...

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Monday Midday Color

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No Spike In New Highs - What It Means

A sparse new high listThe S&P 500 has been hanging near its former high, but relatively few securities on the NYSE have been able to push above their former peaks. It’s now been 300 days since more than 7% of issues on the NYSE hit a new high, ranking as one of the longest stretches in 50 years. ...

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Thursday Midday Color

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Wednesday Midday Color

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Tuesday Midday Color

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Friday Midday Color

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Thursday Midday Color

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Tuesday Midday Color

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Thursday Midday Color

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Options Traders Bet On Decline As S&P Meets Target And Utes Surge

Options bets and strategists’ spreadAs stocks rally, options traders have built up a large position in S&P 500 put options, relative to the number of outstanding calls. It’s the opposite in VIX options, where they have few puts and many calls. Since 2006, this has led to a negative annualized ...

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Surge In New Highs Among Utilities

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Wednesday Midday Color

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Tuesday Midday Color

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Monday Midday Color

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Thursday Midday Color

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Tuesday Midday Color

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Breadth Momentum Crests As FX Volatility Plunges

Breadth surge has crestedAfter seeing a historic run in the momentum of stocks’ underlying breadth in January and February, indicators are showing diverging trends. That’s to be expected after readings like January’s, and historically these “negative divergences” haven’t been so negative. Over ...

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Monday Midday Color

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Catching Up

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Hedgers Are Hedging As Transports Lag Amid Momentum Ebb

Hedgers actually hedgingHedgers in the major index futures pared their positions by more than $10 billion at the end of February. That’s one of their larger one-week increases in hedging activity.When they’ve made such big changes in the past, it has been a bit of a negative for stocks.Dow ...

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Tuesday Midday Color

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Monday Midday Color

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Mystery Buyers As Breadth Momentum Hits Epic Proportions

Mystery buyerThere are many remarkable aspects to the rally over the past two months, including who’s buying. Large speculators in index futures continue to sell. So do small speculators.Hedge funds don’t seem to be buying. And neither do mutual fund or ETF investors. All of these are a change ...

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Friday Midday Color

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Thursday Midday Color

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Big Rally In Small Stocks, With Smart Money Buying

Small stocks, big rallySmall-cap stocks have rallied 24% in only two months, ranking among the best rallies since 1926.Other times they jumped to this degree, small stocks tended to rise in the months ahead, but there were some failures. The overall bias was positive, especially in terms of risk ...

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An Industrial-Led Rally As Shanghai Surprises

The rally’s workhorsesThe Industrials sector has led all major S&P 500 groups since the December 24 low, while defensive ones like Utilities have lagged.Going back to 1928 and looking at all two-month, 10% rallies from a low, we see that the rallies with the highest sector correlation to our ...

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Tuesday Midday Color

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No Volatility As Utilities' Breadth Impresses

No volatilityVolatility expectations across assets have plunged. The VIX and its related measures for stocks, bonds, oil, gold, and bonds is hovering near multi-year or even multi-decade lows.Since 1990, it has been unusual to see the “volatility of everything” collapse at the same time, and it ...

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Monday Midday Color

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Friday Midday Color

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Thursday Midday Color

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A Remarkable Run, As Bulls Return And Dow Stocks Are Above Average

A remarkable runBoth the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 have enjoyed a near-historic run from their Christmas Eve lows. The magnitude of their gains, interrupted by only a few large daily losses, have been matched only a few times.The sample sizes are tiny, but the implications are mostly positive, ...

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Wednesday Midday Color

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Crossing A Flat 200-Day Average As Optimism Follows The Thrust

Jumping over a flat averageThe S&P 500 finally closed above its 200-day average after a couple of months below. Because the decline was not that severe or long-lasting, the average was flat.When the S&P has ended a streak below its 200-day average and that average was flat, its returns were ...

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Sustained Momentum Even As Cumulative Net New Highs Barely Budge

Sustained momentumThe McClellan Summation Index continues to power higher, showing impressive and sustained momentum. After being below -500 for at least 10 consecutive days, it is now above +500 for 10 straight, flipping its momentum.When it has been able to maintain a high level after flipping ...

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Cumulative New High / New Low Lagging

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Fear Is Slipping As Moving Averages Show Extreme

Fear is slippingEven while the S&P 500 remains below its 200-day average, the VIX has slipped to a multi-month low and is well below its long-term average of 20.This has consistently led to trouble over the short- to medium-term as the ebbing of concern showed that investors were too quick to ...

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Good Overbought; Dow Leads Above 200-Day

Good overboughtAfter reaching an extreme oversold reading in December, the long-term McClellan Summation Index has cycled back to an overbought reading. What’s notable about this is just how quickly the Summation Index has cycled up to 500 after being so depressed just a month ago. The only time ...

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McClellan Summation Crosses 500

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Emerging Markets Breakout; Fidelity Managers Beat Cash; Baltic Dry Collapse

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Breaking outEmerging markets have closed above their 200-day average for the first time since last spring, a streak of nearly 9 months. That’s one of the longer streaks in 30 years.Other times an emerging markets index ended long streaks below its ...

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Back To Greed; Low Exposure; Oscillator Streak

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Back to greedThe CNN Fear & Greed model has gone from extreme Fear in December to Greed now.It’s not unusual to see it swing this much, this quickly, but it is unusual when the S&P 500 still hasn’t made it above its 200-day averages. And those ...

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McClellan Oscillator Above 50 For 3 Weeks

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Most Stocks Are Rallying; Put Open Interest Is Rising

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stocks are rallyingEven though the S&P 500 is nearly 10% below its high, its Cumulative Advance/Decline Line has rebounded so much it’s almost at a new high.That’s a positive divergence, but historically there hasn’t been much positive about it, ...

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The Anti-Hindenburg Omen; Fed Recession Risk Rises

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The anti-HindenburgA compelling reason for caution last fall was the kind of split market that triggered a cluster of Hindenburg Omen warning signs. Over the past two weeks, there has been a cluster of signals that are the exact opposite of the ...

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No Bank Failures; Battle Of Time Frames For Moving Averages

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.As good as it can getLast year, there were no bank failures. That sounds like a good thing, and it’s happened only 3 other times in 85 years. A sample size of 3 makes it difficult to consider the precedents, so if we relax the parameters and look ...

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New Low Decline As An "All-Clear"; Junk Bond Surge

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.All is not clearIn December, more than 40% of securities hit a 52-week low. That has since collapsed to fewer than 0.4% of issues, the 2nd fastest and most dramatic reversal in history.If we relax the thresholds, using more than 30% new lows as the ...

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Zweig Breadth Thrust; Strategists vs Analysts

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.TriggeredThis time is different. When we look at the declines and attempted recoveries since the trouble started in October, what has transpired since mid- to late December is markedly different than the ones that failed. This push off the lows has ...

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Breadth Thrust From The Low; Record Stock And Bond Fund Outflows

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Get me inDuring rally attempts in November and December, one worry was that there were no strong thrusts in breadth. Both failed. During this latest rally, there have been two such days, so strong that there are few historical precedents.Maybe it’s ...

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Newsletters Are Shorting; Breadth Swings; No Highs; Big Outflow; Buying Stampede

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Get shortyWhile individual investors in the AAII survey became pessimistic a week ago, this week there were more than 50% bears in the survey for the first time in 5 years. That has made a different in other surveys, too. According to one measure ...

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Swift, Severe Decline; Up Volume Thrust; Low TRIN

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stocks just suffered one of the largest, swiftest pullbacks in 70 yearsThe S&P suffered a 17% loss in less than four months.That’s unnerving but is not the kind of decline that happens before or during economic recessions. They are mostly ...

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A Pre-Holiday Review

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Another Volatile Session

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Another volatile sessionSome early optimism on Thursday was quickly erased, and stocks dove to new lows for this move. In the process, it triggered several extremes:* The Nasdaq is on the threshold of a 20% decline.* The percentage of securities ...

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New Low Spike; Heavy Selling Cluster

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Equity Risk Premium Collapses; A Day Of Notable Moves; VIX Not Jumping

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Equity premium collapsesThe premium that investors are willing to pay for stocks’ earnings has collapsed relative to the yield available on bonds. The one-year z-score of the Equity Risk Premium is now 4 standard deviations below average, a ...

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Oil And Energy Collapse; RSI Divergence; Smart-Dumb Money Extreme; Overwhelming Lows

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No energyCrude oil collapsed with a large loss and 52-week low on Tuesday. That’s not what the Energy stock sector needed right now but taking the chance that we’re whistling past the graveyard, the losses on Monday and Tuesday may just be bad ...

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Long-Term Bears; Russell 2000 Bear Market; S&P Drops On Friday/Monday; Spike In 52-Week Lows

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Long-term bearsBuilding on what we looked at last week, we take a longer-term, multi-year look at prior bear markets, including their median loss and standard deviations. We also look at returns following major peaks in Consumer Confidence.The ...

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Energy Stocks Worst Breadth In 4 Years; Traders Keep Selling The Open

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.At least Financials are worseBreadth in the S&P 500 Energy Sector is the worst in four years. Few of the stocks are above even their shortest-term moving averages, and there has been a spike in the percentage of stocks at a 52-week low.This has, in ...

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New Lows In Financials; Buy-The-Rally Is Dead, Too

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Financial troublesMore than half of the stocks in the S&P 500 Financials sector have declined to a 52-week low, the most in more than two years.After investors have sold so many in a single sector to this low of a level, it has tended to bounce. ...

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Financials' New Lows; Bank Loan Pessimism

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Bonds On Sale; Hedge Fund Exposure; Persistent New Lows

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bonds on saleA popular intermediate-term corporate bond ETF was trading this week at a price (relatively) far below its underlying value.Big discounts on liquid ETFs are rare, and often a good contrary indicator. Over its nearly 10-year history, ...

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Volatility Regime Change; More New Lows

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Regime changeStocks have swung more than 1.5 standard deviations on more than half the days during the past two months. That’s a big change from September when it happened only once. When stocks change from a low-volatility regime to a high one, it ...

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Yield Curve Inversion; Intense Selling; November Flows

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Upside downThe yields on 2- and 3-year Treasuries are now higher than 5-year maturities, an inversion of the short end of the yield curve.This tends to precede an inversion of the more common 2-year vs 10-year yields. But there has been a long lead ...

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Positive Breadth Divergence; Growth Worries

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A positive divergenceWhen the S&P fell to a 6-month low last week, significantly fewer of its individual stocks did so, creating a positive divergence in its Advance/Decline Line.That looks pretty on a chart, but it hasn’t been consistent enough, ...

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Sentiment vs Earnings; Massive Buy Programs

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Sentiment vs earningsThe S&P 500’s flat return in 2018 so far has been due to the growth in earnings being offset by a drop in sentiment. The price/earnings ratio for the index has declined about as much as earnings have grown, like 2011.Other ...

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Puts Are Popular; No Sector Funds Are Beating Cash

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Puts have become popularSince the market peaked in September, most days have seen at least 10% more put options traded than call options, the largest cluster in three years. Out of a total of 27 days in the sample, the S&P was higher two months ...

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An Almost-Thrust; Bond Boondoggle

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.An almost-thrustAt the end of October, volume was flowing overwhelmingly into declining stocks, pushing the Up Volume Ratio into oversold territory. That has now changed, and the switch has been aggressive enough to (almost) trigger a traditional ...

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No Capitulation; No Breadth Thrust

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No capitulationThe VIX “fear gauge” never really spiked during the October pullback, suggesting no capitulation from investors.That’s not really true, and it doesn’t matter for forward returns. History is riddled with bottoms that weren’t ...

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Massive Sell Programs; Hard, Fast Pullback, Near-Record Negative Momentum

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Everybody outDuring the past 3 weeks, we’ve seen a near-record amount of sell programs at some point during the trading day.The lowest NYSE TICK during that stretch is now the 2nd most extreme in history, with an average of more than a net 40% of ...

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Stocks, Sectors In Correction; Nasdaq's Bad Day; S&P Negative YTD; Spike In Pessimism

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stocks in correctionThe S&P still hasn’t suffered a correction, if we define it by a 10% decline from a 52-week high. With the severe loss on Wednesday, it has just barely missed the cut. Most of its stocks haven’t been so fortunate, however. With ...

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Major Reversal; Jump In New Lows; Dumb Money Purge

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Waiting For A Breadth Thrust; Chinese Investors' Long Slog

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Waiting for a thrustBreadth recent hit a deep oversold reading, now many are looking for an upside “thrust” that signals a return of buying interest.But waiting for a breath thrust hasn’t worked well in bull markets. Future returns were better, and ...

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Correcting Oversold; Quick Change In Character; Every Dow Stock Rises

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Correcting oversoldThe McClellan Oscillator has gone from extremely oversold to neutral. It was below -90 just a few days ago and is now up to -10.Such a rapid change in character has been a good sign during uptrends, and that context was important ...

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Rate-Sensitive Divergence With Yields As New Lows Climb

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Rate-sensitive divergence warningAs yields rise, the Financial sector is badly underperforming Utilities, which is atypical.Historically, there has been a strong positive correlation between rates and the ratio of Financials to Utilities. When a ...

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Momentum Shift As Bonds Have Big Move

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum shiftThe McClellan Summation Index is below zero for the first time in a half-year.It’s also turning negative while stocks are still relatively close to their recent highs, and that has been more of a negative shorter-term.Bonds’ biggest ...

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NDX Breaks 50-Day, Breadth Momentum Rolls Over

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Dow Ignores Majority, IPO Appetite Wanes

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Dow ignores the majorityThe Dow Industrials have rallied to new highs, but most stocks are in bear markets.More than half of NYSE stocks are below their 200-day averages, a rare disparity on days when the Dow has been at its highest level in a year ...

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Options Bulls Reign As New Lows Rise Even Amid Good Price Momentum

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Calling all bullsOptions traders are showing a historic preference for speculating on the upside. In recent weeks and months, they’ve spent most of their options volume on buying speculative calls.At the same time, they don’t want to risk a large ...

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Breadth Lacks Oomph As Many S&P Stocks Still In Bear Markets

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Lacking a little oomphStock indexes have reached record highs, but there isn’t much oomph in the move. The McClellan Oscillator has been negative for nearly 3 weeks, which is a long time given the run to new highs in the S&P. When the index hits a ...

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Dow Theory Buy Signal Even As Homebuilders Slip

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Dow theory buy signalBoth the Dow Industrials and Transports have reached new highs. This is the first new high in the Industrials in months, following the previous breakout from Transports. Similar buy signals according to trend-following theory ...

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Managers Favor U.S. As Market Sees Historic Split

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.There’s no place like homeFund managers are showing a multi-year preference for U.S. stocks. A popular survey from BAML shows that managers are heavily overweight the U.S. versus both emerging market and eurozone stocks. But that hasn’t necessarily ...

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A "Small" Split As Investors Pull Back

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A “small” splitThe Russell 2000 is near its highs, but relatively few of its stocks are trading above their moving averages. There has also been an uptick in its stocks hitting multi-month lows.The only other times this has happened to this degree ...

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Financials Lag As Transports Lead

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stalling Financials trigger concernEven as the S&P tickles a new high, Financials have struggled and are the worst-performing major sector over the past six months. The ratio between Financials to the S&P just hit a new 52-week low, which has been ...

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Growth Better Than Unemployment As Warnings Cluster

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Growth > unemploymentThe President’s triumphant gaffe about a 100-year high in economic success masked a relatively common signal. When GDP growth was higher than the unemployment rate, stock returns were in line with random, suggesting there was ...

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Small Business Has Never Been Better As Hong Kong Slides Into A Bear

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Never betterSmall business owner optimism is at record highs, surpassing two other periods since 1979.Despite worries about labor, owners have exceptionally high confidence about future conditions. It is backward-looking for stocks, though, and ...

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A Week Of Warnings As Transports Break Out

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A week of warningsEvery day last week triggered a Hindenburg Omen or Titanic Syndrome technical warning signal.While they are much-maligned and not immune to failures, similar clusters of these warning signs preceded consistent weakness across ...

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Record Positive Divergence As We Near An August High

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A near-record positive divergenceThe S&P 500’s Advance/Decline Line is more than 5% above its high from January, showing that even as the index itself has struggled to hit a new high, a majority of stocks in the index have consistently climbed ...

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A Tepid Rally As Coffee And Sugar Sour

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A really, really tepid rallyIn the past 90 days, there have been only 3 breadth thrusts, a tepid run as the S&P 500 nears a new high.Rallies with few thrusts did worse going forward than rallies with more of them, but even so the returns were still ...

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Mid And Small Cap Stocks Diverge At Highs As Emerging Market Volatility Soars

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.About those new highsMid and Small Cap indexes are hitting new 52-week highs, leading the Large Cap S&P 500 index as we saw on Tuesday. But fewer of those mid- and small-cap stocks in the indexes are also reaching 52-week highs.Similar divergences ...

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Mid And Small Caps Break Out As Financial Conditions Ease Amid VIX Decline

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Large caps lag mids and smallsThe S&P Mid Cap and Small Cap indexes have hit new 52-week highs this week while the large-cap S&P 500 still has not.The lagging S&P 500 tends to catch up, with all three indexes usually rallying in the months ...

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Dow's Long Correction With Positive S&P Breadth

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The Dow’s long correctionThe Dow has gone 130 days without a new high or 20% loss, one of its longer stretches in purgatory. Other periods when it got stuck in a correction mostly resolved higher, with a choppy 1-2 months generally leading to new ...

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Breadth Divergences Not Much Of A Concern As Staples Recover

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Few highs as indexes rallyThe S&P 500 has rallied close to its prior highs, but there is a divergence. Relatively few stocks are registering 4-, 12-, and 52-week highs as the index rallies.It’s a concern among technicians but has not been a ...

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Leaders Become Laggards As Traders Bet On Volatility

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Leaders become laggardsThe Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 have lost their 50-day averages after months above, a change from June when both were leading the market. Even with the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials above their averages, future returns ...

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Risk Appetite Wanes As Small-Caps' Trend Ends And Funds See Outflows

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Lack of risk appetiteDiscretionary stocks are at a multi-month low relative to defensive Staples.That sign of risk-off behavior is unusual with the S&P near a high but has not been a good excuse to sell stocks.Another trend endedThe small-cap ...

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Momentum Worries As Emerging Stocks Start Uptrending

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum worriesAs the S&P hit a 100-day high, a very low % of stocks are showing momentum. An almost record low % of stocks are above their 10-day avg or have an RSI > 70, which has preceded weak shorter-term returns or failed rallies.Emerging ...

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Nasdaq Stocks Lag While Emerging Market Nerves Hit High

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Some lag during latest legThe Nasdaq Composite closed at a 52-week high on Friday but relatively few stocks have come along, with fewer than 60% of members trading above their 50- and 200-day averages.The one-year return in the Nasdaq averaged ...

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Good Growth During Earnings Season As Nasdaq Leads

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A great season of earningsEarnings season is expected to bring another quarter of impressive growth.When that growth is high, however, earnings season carries more risk than reward.Tech is leading the chargeThe Nasdaq Composite is leading the four ...

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Breadth Momentum Improves As Equal Weight S&P Lags

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.An uptick in momentumThe McClellan Oscillator has turned positive after weeks below zero.In a bull market, that has led to good medium-term returns, especially since 1984 when it led to gains over the next 6 months 18 out of 20 times.Don’t forget ...

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World Markets And Platinum Fall As Utilities Streak Higher

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.World stocks hit 2018 lowWorld stocks have hit a 200-day low while the S&P 500 is more than 8% above its own 200-day low. Similar setups led to a rebound in World stocks over the next 2-4 weeks.Compared to the S&P, World stocks outperformed every ...

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GE Booted From Dow As Russell And Nasdaq Hit Highs

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Somebody turn on the lightsGE got booted from the DJIA after 100 years, after a similar stretch of poor returns from Alcoa when it was removed…and before it doubled during the next year.Other stocks that got removed from the Dow did fine going ...

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Gold Bugs' Bad Day As Cap-Weighted Indexes Take Over

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Gold bugs’ ruined weekendHeading into the weekend, gold futures suffered their largest loss in over a year, to a multi-month low. When it happened it May, the selling marked an exhaustion and gold worked higher. Most times it did something similar, ...

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Euro Death Cross As Down Days Swamp Up Days, Staples Stabilize

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Euro Death CrossFor more than a year, the euro’s 50-day average has been above its 200-day average.That trend has now ended, after one of the longest streaks in the currency’s history. The end to other long streaks led to further weakness in the ...

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Breadth Momentum Picks Up As Value Lags Growth And Homebuilders Turn Up

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum is picking upMomentum in breadth figures is returning, with the McClellan Summation Index climbing. When it reaches 500 for the first time in months, it has led to an excellent risk/reward skew for stocks.The S&P 500’s annualized return ...

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Nasdaq Hits New High With Fewer Stocks Coming Along

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Some tech stocks struggle to keep upThe S&P 500 Technology index has hit new highs the past two days, but fewer of its stocks are coming along. In January and March, more than 40% of its members hit 52-week highs, compared to only 15% on ...

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Few S&P Stocks Above Average As Copper Baffles Bulls

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The biggest divergence since 2000As the S&P 500 hits a 50-day high, too few of its members are trading above their short-, medium, and long-term averages. The percentage of stocks trading above their averages is far below what we usually see.The ...

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Big Thrust In Up Volume As Junk Bond Metrics Diverge

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Kind of a thrustWe still haven’t had a “breadth thrust” with more than 90% of NYSE volume flowing into advancing stocks. But Wednesday’s session had the best ratio since November 2016, nearly 400 sessions ago.A big Up Volume figure for the first ...

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Small Caps Lead As Staples Lose Relevance And Energy Can't Lose

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The leading indexSmall cap stocks, via the Russell 2000 index, are leading the other major indexes in the race to new highs. It’s the only index that has reached a 52-week high in the past 30 days.Other times it led to new highs, it was an ...

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Breadth Reaches New High As Oil, Stocks Rally Together

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A breakout in breadthThe Cumulative Advance/Decline Line has made a new all-time high.Since 1940, that has led to a smaller chance of a large decline going forward, and a smaller average drawdown. When the S&P has lagged the A/D Line like now, it ...

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S&P Breaks Out As Tech, Energy Highs Surge And

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Small Caps Shine As Financial Conditions Tighten And VIX Drops

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Small caps trying to drag us higherThe small-cap Russell 2000 is within 1% of an all-time high, while the S&P 500 is still more than 5% below.That’s usually taken as a universally good sign for stocks in general. It hasn’t been that easy, ...

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Nasdaq Breadth Is (Too) Good As Buyers Finally Persist Intraday

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Tech breadth remains impressiveA few major Tech stocks get all the attention, throwing a shadow over all the other members. So far this year, the sector is showing some of the best breadth readings since 1990, with broad participation.Even if there ...

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Consumers Turn Bearish As Dow, Staples Decline

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Consumers are buying…just not stocksThe latest Consumer Confidence survey shows more consumers expect stocks to decline than rally. That’s the first time since the November 2016 election that the U.S. consumer has been bearish on stocks.Other times ...

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Consumer Staples Have Been Historically Unstable

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.So much for being a StapleConsumer Staples stocks have taken a big hit over the past couple of days (and weeks). Many of what had been considered safe stocks are down more than 5% in just two days. More than 25% of them are now trading at their ...

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Back Above A Technical Level As Volatility Drops And A/D Line Hits A High

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Indexes reclaim technical levelsAccording to media reports, Tuesday’s jump in the Dow and S&P above their 50-day averages was important. The Dow does tend to have markedly better annualized returns when trading above its average.But as an all-clear ...

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No Thrust As Big Money Pulls Back

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Two weeks and still no thrustStocks have been rallying for a couple of weeks, but there hasn’t yet been a 90% Up Volume day.Forward returns when there has been a 90% day in the first two weeks were excellent, not so much when not. That is a minor ...

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Wall Street Sentiment As Few Fidelity Funds Beat Cash

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.An undervalued marketStocks are undervalued, at least according to Wall Street strategists. They expect the S&P 500 to end the year more than 10% above where it is, enough to suggest they think the index is undervalued.When they’ve been so adamant ...

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All Or Nothing As Every Financial And Dow Stock Declines

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.All or nothingIn the past 11 sessions, there have been 8 all-or-nothing days, when Up Volume was above 80% or below 20%.Even bear markets rarely see this level of uncertainty. Forward returns had a strong tendency to be positive, especially over ...

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Failed Bounce And Put Purchases

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Failed bounceBefore some modest after buying interest, the most important index in the world triggered a failed bounce.That’s one of the most feared patterns for bulls because it shows a complete lack of buying interest. The S&P did suffer ...

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Gold Miners Lag As Investment Managers Sell

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Miners’ minor monthsGold mining stocks have underperformed gold prices by more than 10% over the past couple of months.Due to their higher volatility, this is considered a negative for gold prices going forward. There is some modest truth to this, ...

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Neutral Investors, With Soaring Small-Caps And Dow Theory Warning

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Mom and pop just shrugIndividual investors have become neutral to one of the most extreme degrees in the past 15 years.That’s usually a good sign in a bull market, especially longer-term. It’s also been a good sign that there are more bears than ...

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Lopsided Volume Swings As MLPs Suffer Pessimism

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Everybody out, then in, then out againDuring the past month, volume has been gyrating wildly between losing, winning, then losing securities. A 3-day average of the Up Volume Ratio keeps swinging from one extreme to the other.During uptrending ...

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A "Good" Correction As Silver Specs Give Up

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Good vs bad correctionsIn these first two weeks following the Dow’s drop into a correction, it has followed the path of many “good” corrections. Those are times when the Dow fell 10% from a high, then no more than a further 7% during the next ...

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Correlations Go Back To Normal Without A Breadth Thrust

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Correlations go back to normalAs stocks sold off, correlations between sectors rose as they usually do and are back at a normal level. That has reversed a period when correlations were almost at the lowest level in history, eclipsed only by the ...

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Best Recovery Ever As Investors Flee Bonds

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Best recovery everAfter falling into a correction a week ago, the Dow Industrials index has rallied every day and added 5.6%. That ranks among its best-ever recoveries after falling more than 10% below its high for the first time in months.Other ...

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Panic And Reverse

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Panic and reverseStocks suffered a panic day on Monday, then reversed early losses to close higher. That matches several other instances that led to consistent returns going forward.There was volatile back-and-forth then another run at the prior ...

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Cornucopia Of Extremes

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Breadth Gets Oversold As Consumer Confidence Rises

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Oversold alreadyAt least one primary breadth indicator is showing that recent selling pressure is extreme. It’s rare to see the McClellan Oscillator this stretched to the downside just a few days after an all-time high in the S&P.Similar readings ...

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Fund Managers Ignore Cash As Streaks End

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Fund managers still hate cashMutual fund managers are holding a near-record low amount of cash according to the latest figures. That was easier to justify when interest rates were nearly zero but gets harder as rates rise.Their cash deficit is now ...

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Options Traders Pour Into Calls As Breadth Lags

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Forget stock, call options have more oomphRetail traders have returned in a big way. We saw on Friday the surge in brokerage transactions, and that has bled over into the options market. The smallest of options traders put on a skyrocketing number ...

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Record Gaps As Investors Pour In

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Green every morningStocks have been gapping up in the morning almost every day. During the past 30 sessions, more than 85% of them have seen the futures open higher than the prior close.That is – by far – the most since futures began trading in ...

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Dollar Ignores Rates As S&P Shows Exhaustion

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Ignoring the rise in ratesDespite a steady rise in interest rates, the U.S. dollar has declined more than 10% over the past year.That’s unusual, especially given the magnitude of the fall in the dollar and the rise in rates. The other times it ...

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Doubling Up Moving Average As S&P Members Get Overbought

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Doubling up the averagesThe S&P is 3% above its short-term moving average, 6% above its medium-term and 13% above its long-term.It hasn’t managed to “double up” its gains above each successive moving average in 20 years. Similar bouts of momentum ...

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Gapping Up And Nasdaq New Highs

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Burst Of New Highs As Optimism Hits 30-Year High

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A rare burst of new highsMost of the major indexes and sectors had more than 25% of their stocks hit a 52-week high on Tuesday. Only Staples and Utilities saw fewer than 10% of their stocks hit a new high. On average across indexes and sectors, 27% ...

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Gap Up While Bears Scatter And New Highs Jump

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The S&P's Momentum Streak Aided By Industrials

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The S&P’s consistent, rapid rallyThe most important index in the world has rallied consistently for the past 1, 3, and 6 months. It has also picked up its gains, nearing or exceeding its upper Bollinger Band on daily, weekly, and monthly time ...

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Seasonality, Utilities, and Junk

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Market Oddities And Nikkei Reversal

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Financials Trying To Emerge From Oversold

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The Dow's Dominant Stock

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Another Jump In New Lows

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New Lows Among The S&P

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Materials, Info Tech New High Surge

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Stocks Struggle To Match The S&P

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Nasdaq's Bad Breadth, Too

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Breadth Thrust In Euro Stocks

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Surge In Financials At 52-Week Highs

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All Four Major Indexes At New Highs

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ETF and Sector Indicators at an Extreme - Sept 30 2016

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Utilities Have Been (Too) Strong

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Almost Every Member Of The Dow Is Rising

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Utilities Average Is Stretched

With utility sector stocks doing so well, it's no surprise that most members of the Dow Jones Utility Average are trading above their moving averages. The rally has been swift and sustained enough that more than 95% of the stocks in the index are now trading above their 10-, 20-, 50- and 200-day ...

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Bad Breadth On A Good Day

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Up Volume Going For 3 In A Row Above 80%

There is still a few hours to go in today's session, but buyers are working on a third straight day of impressive pressure.Friday, Tuesday and today (so far) have all seen more than 80% of volume on the NYSE flowing into stocks that are positive on the day.From the intraday charts:The last time ...

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Italian Stocks Are The Worst Of The Worst

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Shanghai Breadth Nears Record For Selling Persistence

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Breadth Flush Pt 2 - New Lows

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Breadth Flush

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Selling Off After We're Already Oversold

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