Posts tagged as Correlations

Commodities Continue Rallying Despite Rising Dollar

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Time to Keep a Close Eye on the Tech Sector

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The Past 200 Days Are Just Like 2019 (and 2013, and...)

There have been 18 other periods in the S&P 500's history that showed a very strong positive correlation to the index's past 200 days.

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The Closest 200-Day Comparisons

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Watch Aussie Dollar for Important Clue Regarding Commodities

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Energy Bad News and Good News - Part II

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Small Cap Stocks Haven't Done This Since 1933

The correlation between Small-Cap stocks and Growth stocks is at an 80-year low.

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Small Caps' Plunging Correlation to Growth, Tech

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The Correlation Between Growth and Value Has Never Been Lower

Over the past year, the correlation in daily moves between Growth and Value stocks has plunged to the lowest in history.

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Correlations Between Factors Are Plunging

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The Ratio of Lumber to Gold Prices is Crashing

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An Update on a Simple but Effective Gold Indicator

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Where Are We in the Typical Sentiment Cycle?

Based on correlations to various parts of a Typical Sentiment Cycle, investors are now in the Enthusiasm phase, and have been for months.

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Sentiment Cycle Shows High Confidence for The Past 6 Months

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Fear Over Inflation Hasn't Been This High Since 1999

Over the past month, the VIX has been highly correlated with 10-year Treasury yields, suggesting inflation fears are driving volatility expectations.

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Yield Fears Are Driving Stocks, And That's Bad for Gold

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What Happens When Bonds' Buffer is Broken

Over the past 60 days, there has been a deeply negatively correlation between moves in stocks and 10-year Treasury yields.

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When Bonds Don't Provide a Buffer

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When Gold Meets Japan (Part II)

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One of the Dow's Best Starts in 125 Years

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When Gold Meets Japan (Part I)

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Commodities Have Done This 9 Other Times Since 1933

Commodities have done very well so far in 2021, and there have been 9 other years since 1933 with similar starts to a year.

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This year is just like...1963?

With a steadily rising market, 2021 is shaping up to be like 2013 and 2017, but there have been other years with an even closer analog.

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This year is just like...

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Using Metals to Trade Bonds

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A Useful Clue Regarding When to Own Gold

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Consumer Staples vs. Consumer Discretionary and the Inflation Factor

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What's scaring investors right now

The 1-month correlation between the VIX and 10-year yields is the highest it's been in years.

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When rising yields are driving volatility

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What this indicator is saying about investors' complacency

When investors are comfortable, they trade stocks based on their own merits, so correlations among stocks drop. Like it has lately.

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Investors get comfortable trading stocks on their own merits

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A Sell Signal in the Cumulative Advance-Decline Line for the Last Hour of Trading

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Commodities Rising?

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2020 was just like...

The year 2020 was unlike any other in many respects, but in terms of the price path during the year, there were 20 years that had a high correlation.

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Investors extrapolate big gains, with high Confidence

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Near record uptrends as rally hits the 9-month mark

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Even as stocks become more volatile, they're less correlated

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Broader market is shaking off the influence of Big Tech

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Nasdaq's waning momentum clarifies its analogs

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Metals and bonds give different picture as excess liquidity spikes

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If the Nasdaq is peaking, it should look like this

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The S&P 500 is becoming uncorrelated with its own members

The S&P 500 is being driven by relatively few stocks, enough so that over the past month, it is becoming uncorrelated to its own Advance/Decline Line.

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The S&P 500 is uncorrelated with...itself

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Gold's price path has looked like this about a dozen times before

The past 100 days in gold have seen a remarkable run, but there have been about a dozen times that look very similar. Same with its correlation to tech stocks.

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Gold's analogs and its tight correlation with tech stocks

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The last 100 days are the most like...1970?

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Stocks have uncoupled from the dollar

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Australian dollar vs. U.S. equities

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Let's assume the worst

If we assume the worst, that we're in a bear market and recession, we can see the average path. Fewer than 15% of small caps are in uptrends.

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Dollar momentum isn't stopping gold

The correlation between gold and the dollar is breaking down. The Relative Strength Index for the dollar has now pushed into extreme territory.

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Options traders spend billions betting that this rally won't end

Each of the past two weeks, options traders have spent at least $7 billion in bets on a rally. The Nasdaq's correlation to 1999 isn't exclusive.

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5 Trades Show Flight-To-Safety

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.A concerted flight to safetyLooking at a handful of different flight-to-safety trades, it’s evident that there has been a lot of risk-off positioning in ...

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What I'm looking at - correlations, Fidelity Funds Breadth, KBW Bank Index, SPY Liquidity Premium, Value

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Junk Bond's Warning Sign

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bond market warningStocks have held up well lately, more or less, but high-yield (junk) bonds are under-performing relative to other parts of the corporate ...

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Consumers haven't been this depressed in 8 years

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Consumers’ concernsThis month, U.S. consumers decided that the economy was headed for a rough patch and stocks were likely to follow. To the greatest extent ...

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What I'm looking at - stocks vs. politics, nonstop utilities surge, global money supply, Bitcoin's crash

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Stocks and the dollar are "joined at the pip"

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Joined at the pipThere usually isn’t much of a correlation between movement in stocks and the dollar. As much as investors want to assign a narrative linking ...

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Gold/Dollar correlation turns positive

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Tuesday Color - Big Managers Get Bullish, Gold/Dollar Correlation Spike, Repo Rate, Volatility Premium

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