Posts tagged as Currencies

The U.S. dollar appears to be at a crossroads. While price action is purported to be setting up for a rally, seasonal history suggests otherwise. Given the global importance of the U.S. dollar, a lot is hanging in the balance.

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A Yen for the Yen

2021-07-08 | Jay Kaeppel

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Weekly Wrap for Jun 25 - Some Internal Divergences, A Dollar Pain Trade

2021-06-25 | Jason Goepfert

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Warning: The Dollar's 'Pain 'Trade' is Higher

2021-06-24 | Jason Goepfert

Hedge funds, and others, appear to have heavy short exposure to the dollar. Similar behavior preceded multi-month dollar rallies.

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The Dollar Pain Trade

2021-06-23 | Jason Goepfert

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Weekly Wrap for Jun 4 - Risk Appetite Rebounds

2021-06-04 | Jason Goepfert

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3 Reasons to be Concerned About Bitcoin's Prospects

2021-05-26 | Jason Goepfert

A measure of volatility for bitcoin, using a synthetic VIX, shows one of the largest spikes in its history.

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Why Bitcoin's Volatility is Not a Good Sign

2021-05-25 | Jason Goepfert

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When Gold Meets Japan (Part II)

2021-05-10 | Jay Kaeppel

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A Possible Respite for the Dollar in May

2021-04-29 | Jay Kaeppel

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Weekly Wrap for Apr 9 - Still no divergence warnings

2021-04-09 | Jason Goepfert

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It's hard to find pessimism, except in this one market

2021-04-08 | Jason Goepfert

Among market markets, only one is showing even modest amounts of pessimism, and that's the Japanese yen.

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In an optimistic market, the yen stands out

2021-04-07 | Jason Goepfert

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Spring Dollar Doldrums

2021-03-19 | Jay Kaeppel

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The Pound Rebound

2021-03-01 | Jay Kaeppel

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Crypto is getting a little crowded

2021-01-21 | Jason Goepfert

According to a monthly survey of big money managers, being long bitcoin was voted as the most crowded trade.

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Hedge funds are shorting the dollar like crazy

2021-01-13 | Jason Goepfert

Speculators in the dollar are holding one of their largest-ever short positions.

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Short covering in the dollar as the trend turns

2021-01-12 | Jason Goepfert

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Commodities Rising?

2021-01-07 | Jay Kaeppel

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The Ugly History of the British Pound in Q1

2021-01-06 | Jay Kaeppel

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As small stocks (almost) double, optimism peaks

2020-12-14 | Jason Goepfert

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Smart money turns negative on the buck

2020-10-21 | Jason Goepfert

For the first time in months, "smart money" commercial hedgers went net short the U.S. dollar.

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Smart money turns negative on the dollar

2020-10-20 | Jason Goepfert

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The dollar's trend seems to be turning, but...

2020-09-24 | Jason Goepfert

For the 1st time in months, the U.S. dollar has managed to rise above its 50-day moving average.

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The dollar ends its medium-term downtrend amid sour sentiment

2020-09-23 | Jason Goepfert

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USD's rally

2020-09-23 | Troy Bombardia

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USD sentiment is retreating from extreme readings

2020-09-16 | Troy Bombardia

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Metals and bonds give different picture as excess liquidity spikes

2020-09-10 | Jason Goepfert

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Dollar falls into correction for the first time in years

2020-09-01 | Jason Goepfert

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The start of a dollar rally?

2020-08-20 | Troy Bombardia

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USD bearish positioning

2020-08-14 | Troy Bombardia

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One of the dollar's worst months ever

2020-08-03 | Jason Goepfert

July was one of the worst months ever for the U.S. dollar, falling several percent while hitting a multi-year low.

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The dollar's largest monthly losses

2020-07-31 | Jason Goepfert

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Extremely low U.S. Dollar exposure

2020-07-30 | Troy Bombardia

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Precious metals and USD sentiment

2020-07-24 | Troy Bombardia

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USD weakness

2020-07-15 | Troy Bombardia

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Weakening dollar

2020-07-02 | Troy Bombardia

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Stocks have uncoupled from the dollar

2020-06-26 | Jason Goepfert

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Dollar is falling in a risk-on environment

2020-06-10 | Troy Bombardia

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USD dropped to a 2 month low after a large spike

2020-05-29 | Troy Bombardia

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Sentiment recovers amid an economic plunge

2020-04-10 | Jason Goepfert

Our proxy of the CNN Fear & Greed model has recovered into neutral from deep pessimism. Economic surprises have plunged, not good for the dollar.

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Economic surprises suffer historic plunge

2020-04-06 | Jason Goepfert

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No need for a safe haven?

2020-03-26 | Troy Bombardia

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No safe havens

2020-03-19 | Jason Goepfert

The bond market is seeing wild swings, which we see during times of extreme duress. The dollar has spiked to one of the largest degrees ever.

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What I'm looking at - ZEW, yield curve, USD spike, S&P's intraday range, commodities collapse

2020-03-19 | Troy Bombardia

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Tech, dollar suffer selling "shocks"

2020-02-24 | Jason Goepfert

The Nasdaq Composite suffered a 2 standard deviation loss, soon after hitting an all-time high. The U.S. dollar suffered a shocking loss, too.

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What I'm looking at - breadth warnings, USD's drop, gold's rally

2020-02-22 | Troy Bombardia

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Dollar momentum isn't stopping gold

2020-02-20 | Jason Goepfert

The correlation between gold and the dollar is breaking down. The Relative Strength Index for the dollar has now pushed into extreme territory.

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What I'm looking at - Building Permits, USD, MACD buy signals

2020-02-20 | Troy Bombardia

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What I'm looking at - tech correlations, everything rally, utilities, USD

2020-02-19 | Troy Bombardia

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What I'm looking at - standard deviations, tech breadth, relative strength, USD

2020-02-14 | Troy Bombardia

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Options Traders Are Leveraged After A Good Year-End

2020-01-03 | Jason Goepfert

After a good end to the year, stocks often struggle, and options traders are leveraged and bullish, with the U.S. dollar breaking down

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What I'm looking at: breadth thrusts, financial conditions, USD, copper

2020-01-03 | Troy Bombardia

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What I'm looking at - AIM, yield curve steepening, Macro Index, Initial Claims, emerging market currencies

2019-12-31 | Troy Bombardia

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What I'm looking at - 2019 vs 2018, equity Put/Call, Value Line, breadth surge, AUD

2019-12-24 | Troy Bombardia

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What I'm looking at - Smart Money, USD breakdown, ZEW, microcaps, growth & tech index

2019-12-12 | Troy Bombardia

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What I'm looking at - SKEW, gold's year, copper breakout, Pound, palm oil

2019-12-10 | Troy Bombardia

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What I'm looking at - Industrial Production, housing's comeback, VVIX, U.S. Dollar drop, loans

2019-10-18 | Troy Bombardia

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Junk Bond's Warning Sign

2019-10-15 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bond market warningStocks have held up well lately, more or less, but high-yield (junk) bonds are under-performing relative to other parts of the corporate ...

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What I'm looking at - dividend yields, gold & USD, wholesalers' sales, oil positioning, 50 dma breadth.

2019-10-15 | Troy Bombardia

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What I'm looking at - VIX Put/Call, ISM vs S&P, USD trend, small cap earnings

2019-10-03 | Troy Bombardia

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Tuesday Color - ISM plunge, currency flight to safety, eurozone surprises

2019-10-01 | Jason Goepfert

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Monday Color - Small traders, dollar sellers, S&P momentum, quarterly run, energy bonds

2019-09-30 | Jason Goepfert

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Consumers haven't been this depressed in 8 years

2019-09-30 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Consumers’ concernsThis month, U.S. consumers decided that the economy was headed for a rough patch and stocks were likely to follow. To the greatest extent ...

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Stocks and the dollar are "joined at the pip"

2019-09-26 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Joined at the pipThere usually isn’t much of a correlation between movement in stocks and the dollar. As much as investors want to assign a narrative linking ...

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Small options traders bought this much protection only 3 times in 20 years

2019-09-24 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Small traders being testedThe smallest of options traders keep buying a large amount of put options. Over the past 6 weeks, they’ve spent more than 24% of ...

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Friday Color - Equity Outflow, Breadth High, Oscillator Extremes, Mexico Rebound, Dollar Pain

2019-08-30 | Jason Goepfert

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What I'm looking at - DAX, Put/Call, all-or-nothing, gold:silver ratio, AUDUSD

2019-08-29 | Troy Bombardia

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Gold Beats Stocks' Double-Digit Jump

2019-08-21 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Rising and falling togetherThe major sectors within the S&P 500 have mostly been moving in concert, so correlations have risen quickly over the past month. ...

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Wednesday Color - Curve, Fund Managers, Gold & Yen, 1% Moves, Skew

2019-08-14 | Jason Goepfert

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Tuesday Color - Gold vs Yen, Russell Lag, S&P Divergence, Mexican Breadth, Smart Money Selling

2019-07-23 | Jason Goepfert

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Wednesday Color - Quiet, Fed Talk, Pound, Copper, Bond Optimism

2019-07-10 | Jason Goepfert

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1/2 Of Bitcoin Bubble Signals Have Triggered

2019-06-25 | Jason Goepfert

Bitcoin bubble babbleSentiment on bitcoin is jumping, but is below other euphoric peaks. Barely half of “bubble” signals have triggered, unlike past peaks when 100% of them did.By the time sentiment reached its current level, the coin typically took off on a last gasp buying frenzy, notching ...

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Monday Color - Easy Conditions, Canadian Surprises, Gold Rush, Sector Breadth

2019-06-24 | Jason Goepfert

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The Everything Rally

2019-06-24 | Jason Goepfert

The everything rallyTotal return stock and bond indexes are hitting all-time highs at the same time. They cover an array of stocks and bonds, suggesting extreme breadth of buying interest, as noted by Bloomberg.When they’ve all hit records together, it has been an especially good longer-term ...

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Friday Color - Massive Flows, Dollar Trend, Stock/Bond Rally, Whiplash, Sector Highs

2019-06-21 | Jason Goepfert

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Thursday Color - Bond Moves, Yield Curve, Jobs, REITs & Utes, New Highs, Mexico

2019-06-06 | Jason Goepfert

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Tuesday's Jump, Breadth Recovery, Bitcoin, Corn

2019-06-05 | Jason Goepfert

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Friday Color - More Gaps, Peso, Outflows, Bond Binge

2019-05-31 | Jason Goepfert

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Tuesday Midday Color - Shanghai, , DAX, Bond Bulls, Euro Sentiment

2019-05-28 | Jason Goepfert

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5 Signs Of Anxiety

2019-05-21 | Jason Goepfert

Anxiety signalWhile stocks have struggled, bonds and the dollar have both been rising. Whether one is helping the other is beside the point – primarily it suggests nervousness on the part of investors.When those two markets have behaved like this over the past 40+ years, stocks have usually ...

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Tech Tour De Force, Even With Big Money On Sidelines

2019-04-30 | Jason Goepfert

A tech tour de forceThe tech sector has been on a record run over the past 18 weeks.Going back 93 years, the only other time it had a run like this was in June 1957. There were slightly lesser streaks, including near the peak of the bubble years in 2000 and prior to the 1987 crash. While not a ...

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Monday Midday Color - Cranky Calls, Big Breadth, Can't-Miss Swiss

2019-04-29 | Jason Goepfert

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Hedge Funds Just Won't Buy

2019-04-26 | Jason Goepfert

Hesitant hedgiesHedge funds have not been buying this massive rally. Across different hedge fund strategies, there is very little, or even negative, correlation to the movement in stocks, suggesting they are under-invested or even betting against the rally.This is unusual, though it did happen ...

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Thursday Midday Color - Dollar Bets, Big Breadth, Twitter Junk

2019-04-25 | Jason Goepfert

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Tuesday Midday Color - S&P Recovery, Pound Probabilities, Mixed Breadth

2019-04-23 | Jason Goepfert

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-04-16 | Jason Goepfert

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Friday Midday Color

2019-04-12 | Jason Goepfert

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An Important Shanghai Rally Amid Terrible Economic Surprises

2019-04-04 | Jason Goepfert

An important thresholdWhen big rallies in the Shanghai Composite failed, fewer than 90% of stocks on the exchange had managed to rise above their 200-day averages. When more than 90% did so, the rallies lasted long-term, at least over the past 17 years. That just happened again.It’s also been a ...

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Economic Surprises Bad For Dollar

2019-04-03 | Jason Goepfert

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Monday Midday Color

2019-03-25 | Jason Goepfert

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Dollar Fails And Transports Keep Lagging

2019-03-21 | Jason Goepfert

Dollar failureThe U.S. dollar hit a new high in early March, and optimism was high. That proved to be a headwind again, and the buck has since reversed to close at a 30-day low.This is an unusually quick reversal and quick reversals in the dollar like this have been a negative sign. During the ...

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Dollar Reverses From 52-Week High

2019-03-20 | Jason Goepfert

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Retail Investor Confusion As The Vol Trade And Bitcoin Roll

2017-05-22 | Jason Goepfert

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Breadth Thrust In Euro Stocks

2017-01-04 | Jason Goepfert

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King Dollar

2016-12-02 | Jason Goepfert

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Knee-Jerk Election Patterns

2016-11-10 | Jason Goepfert

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Big Currency Declines

2016-10-07 | Jason Goepfert

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US Dollar Reversals Show A Mixed Record

2016-05-03 | Jason Goepfert

One of the big stories today is in the US Dollar, which is reversing strongly from what had been a new 52-week low:That looks great on a chart, and sentiment on the dollar is poor. Traders in the Rydex family of mutual funds are among the least-invested in a strong dollar in years:That's helping ...

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Quick COT Update

2016-02-12 | Jason Goepfert

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US Dollar Suffers Major Loss

2016-02-03 | Jason Goepfert

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