Posts tagged as Currencies

Weekly Wrap for Apr 9 - Still no divergence warnings

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It's hard to find pessimism, except in this one market

Among market markets, only one is showing even modest amounts of pessimism, and that's the Japanese yen.

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In an optimistic market, the yen stands out

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Spring Dollar Doldrums

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The Pound Rebound

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Crypto is getting a little crowded

According to a monthly survey of big money managers, being long bitcoin was voted as the most crowded trade.

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Hedge funds are shorting the dollar like crazy

Speculators in the dollar are holding one of their largest-ever short positions.

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Short covering in the dollar as the trend turns

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Commodities Rising?

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The Ugly History of the British Pound in Q1

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As small stocks (almost) double, optimism peaks

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Smart money turns negative on the buck

For the first time in months, "smart money" commercial hedgers went net short the U.S. dollar.

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Smart money turns negative on the dollar

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The dollar's trend seems to be turning, but...

For the 1st time in months, the U.S. dollar has managed to rise above its 50-day moving average.

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The dollar ends its medium-term downtrend amid sour sentiment

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USD's rally

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USD sentiment is retreating from extreme readings

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Metals and bonds give different picture as excess liquidity spikes

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Dollar falls into correction for the first time in years

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The start of a dollar rally?

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USD bearish positioning

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One of the dollar's worst months ever

July was one of the worst months ever for the U.S. dollar, falling several percent while hitting a multi-year low.

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The dollar's largest monthly losses

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Extremely low U.S. Dollar exposure

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Precious metals and USD sentiment

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USD weakness

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Weakening dollar

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Stocks have uncoupled from the dollar

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Dollar is falling in a risk-on environment

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USD dropped to a 2 month low after a large spike

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Sentiment recovers amid an economic plunge

Our proxy of the CNN Fear & Greed model has recovered into neutral from deep pessimism. Economic surprises have plunged, not good for the dollar.

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Economic surprises suffer historic plunge

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No need for a safe haven?

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No safe havens

The bond market is seeing wild swings, which we see during times of extreme duress. The dollar has spiked to one of the largest degrees ever.

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What I'm looking at - ZEW, yield curve, USD spike, S&P's intraday range, commodities collapse

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Tech, dollar suffer selling "shocks"

The Nasdaq Composite suffered a 2 standard deviation loss, soon after hitting an all-time high. The U.S. dollar suffered a shocking loss, too.

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What I'm looking at - breadth warnings, USD's drop, gold's rally

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Dollar momentum isn't stopping gold

The correlation between gold and the dollar is breaking down. The Relative Strength Index for the dollar has now pushed into extreme territory.

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What I'm looking at - Building Permits, USD, MACD buy signals

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What I'm looking at - tech correlations, everything rally, utilities, USD

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What I'm looking at - standard deviations, tech breadth, relative strength, USD

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Options Traders Are Leveraged After A Good Year-End

After a good end to the year, stocks often struggle, and options traders are leveraged and bullish, with the U.S. dollar breaking down

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What I'm looking at: breadth thrusts, financial conditions, USD, copper

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What I'm looking at - AIM, yield curve steepening, Macro Index, Initial Claims, emerging market currencies

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What I'm looking at - 2019 vs 2018, equity Put/Call, Value Line, breadth surge, AUD

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What I'm looking at - Smart Money, USD breakdown, ZEW, microcaps, growth & tech index

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What I'm looking at - SKEW, gold's year, copper breakout, Pound, palm oil

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What I'm looking at - Industrial Production, housing's comeback, VVIX, U.S. Dollar drop, loans

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Junk Bond's Warning Sign

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bond market warningStocks have held up well lately, more or less, but high-yield (junk) bonds are under-performing relative to other parts of the corporate ...

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What I'm looking at - dividend yields, gold & USD, wholesalers' sales, oil positioning, 50 dma breadth.

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What I'm looking at - VIX Put/Call, ISM vs S&P, USD trend, small cap earnings

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Tuesday Color - ISM plunge, currency flight to safety, eurozone surprises

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Monday Color - Small traders, dollar sellers, S&P momentum, quarterly run, energy bonds

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Consumers haven't been this depressed in 8 years

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Consumers’ concernsThis month, U.S. consumers decided that the economy was headed for a rough patch and stocks were likely to follow. To the greatest extent ...

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Stocks and the dollar are "joined at the pip"

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Joined at the pipThere usually isn’t much of a correlation between movement in stocks and the dollar. As much as investors want to assign a narrative linking ...

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Small options traders bought this much protection only 3 times in 20 years

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Small traders being testedThe smallest of options traders keep buying a large amount of put options. Over the past 6 weeks, they’ve spent more than 24% of ...

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Friday Color - Equity Outflow, Breadth High, Oscillator Extremes, Mexico Rebound, Dollar Pain

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What I'm looking at - DAX, Put/Call, all-or-nothing, gold:silver ratio, AUDUSD

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Gold Beats Stocks' Double-Digit Jump

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Rising and falling togetherThe major sectors within the S&P 500 have mostly been moving in concert, so correlations have risen quickly over the past month. ...

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Wednesday Color - Curve, Fund Managers, Gold & Yen, 1% Moves, Skew

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Tuesday Color - Gold vs Yen, Russell Lag, S&P Divergence, Mexican Breadth, Smart Money Selling

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Wednesday Color - Quiet, Fed Talk, Pound, Copper, Bond Optimism

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1/2 Of Bitcoin Bubble Signals Have Triggered

Bitcoin bubble babbleSentiment on bitcoin is jumping, but is below other euphoric peaks. Barely half of “bubble” signals have triggered, unlike past peaks when 100% of them did.By the time sentiment reached its current level, the coin typically took off on a last gasp buying frenzy, notching ...

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Monday Color - Easy Conditions, Canadian Surprises, Gold Rush, Sector Breadth

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The Everything Rally

The everything rallyTotal return stock and bond indexes are hitting all-time highs at the same time. They cover an array of stocks and bonds, suggesting extreme breadth of buying interest, as noted by Bloomberg.When they’ve all hit records together, it has been an especially good longer-term ...

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Friday Color - Massive Flows, Dollar Trend, Stock/Bond Rally, Whiplash, Sector Highs

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Thursday Color - Bond Moves, Yield Curve, Jobs, REITs & Utes, New Highs, Mexico

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Tuesday's Jump, Breadth Recovery, Bitcoin, Corn

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Friday Color - More Gaps, Peso, Outflows, Bond Binge

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Tuesday Midday Color - Shanghai, , DAX, Bond Bulls, Euro Sentiment

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5 Signs Of Anxiety

Anxiety signalWhile stocks have struggled, bonds and the dollar have both been rising. Whether one is helping the other is beside the point – primarily it suggests nervousness on the part of investors.When those two markets have behaved like this over the past 40+ years, stocks have usually ...

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Tech Tour De Force, Even With Big Money On Sidelines

A tech tour de forceThe tech sector has been on a record run over the past 18 weeks.Going back 93 years, the only other time it had a run like this was in June 1957. There were slightly lesser streaks, including near the peak of the bubble years in 2000 and prior to the 1987 crash. While not a ...

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Monday Midday Color - Cranky Calls, Big Breadth, Can't-Miss Swiss

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Hedge Funds Just Won't Buy

Hesitant hedgiesHedge funds have not been buying this massive rally. Across different hedge fund strategies, there is very little, or even negative, correlation to the movement in stocks, suggesting they are under-invested or even betting against the rally.This is unusual, though it did happen ...

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Thursday Midday Color - Dollar Bets, Big Breadth, Twitter Junk

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Tuesday Midday Color - S&P Recovery, Pound Probabilities, Mixed Breadth

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Tuesday Midday Color

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Friday Midday Color

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An Important Shanghai Rally Amid Terrible Economic Surprises

An important thresholdWhen big rallies in the Shanghai Composite failed, fewer than 90% of stocks on the exchange had managed to rise above their 200-day averages. When more than 90% did so, the rallies lasted long-term, at least over the past 17 years. That just happened again.It’s also been a ...

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Economic Surprises Bad For Dollar

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Monday Midday Color

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Dollar Fails And Transports Keep Lagging

Dollar failureThe U.S. dollar hit a new high in early March, and optimism was high. That proved to be a headwind again, and the buck has since reversed to close at a 30-day low.This is an unusually quick reversal and quick reversals in the dollar like this have been a negative sign. During the ...

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Dollar Reverses From 52-Week High

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Retail Investor Confusion As The Vol Trade And Bitcoin Roll

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Breadth Thrust In Euro Stocks

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King Dollar

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Knee-Jerk Election Patterns

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Big Currency Declines

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US Dollar Reversals Show A Mixed Record

One of the big stories today is in the US Dollar, which is reversing strongly from what had been a new 52-week low:That looks great on a chart, and sentiment on the dollar is poor. Traders in the Rydex family of mutual funds are among the least-invested in a strong dollar in years:That's helping ...

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Quick COT Update

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US Dollar Suffers Major Loss

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