Posts tagged as Economics

The Recession Is Officially Over (But Don't Tell Growth Stocks)

The NBER has declared an end to the 2020 recession in the U.S. but that doesn't necessarily mean that the coast is clear.

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Growth Stocks Don't Like the Ends of Recessions

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If Inflation is Transitory, Gasoline Prices Are About to Provide a Clue

The Fed keeps saying that inflation is transitory. Is it or is it not? The truth is no one knows for sure. But gasoline prices may be about to offer an important clue as to which way this all plays out. If gas prices do what they typically do, then the skies may clear fairly quickly. But if they do not, the clouds of inflation may continue to gather and darken.

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The Real Estate Sector vs. the Economy

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Heavy Trucks Sales - Keep On Rolling

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Weekly Wrap for Jun 4 - Risk Appetite Rebounds

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Excess Liquidity Is Draining From the Market

With money flowing out of financial assets and into productive ones, Excess Liquidity is draining from the market.

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Excess Liquidity is Being Wrung Out

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A Worrisome - and Little Known - Inflationary Warning Sign

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ISM New Orders to Prices Paid Spread

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What can we learn when the grocery bill goes up

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This Fundamental Indicator Just Ended a Record Positive Streak

For the first time in more than a year, economic reports have started to disappoint economists. That ends the longest streak in 20 years.

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Positive Economic Surprises Come to an End

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Credit Spreads Suggest the Easy Money Has Already Been Made

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Leading Economic Indicators as a Stock Market Indicator

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Don't be worried about inflation until this happens

Inflation is on almost every investor's mind right now, and there is a precise level of rising prices when stocks do best.

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The Inflation 4% Solution

Everyone seems to be talking about inflation. But the question for investors is "when does it really become a threat?" This piece offers one simple approach to alert you when inflation is likely to impact the stock market and when defensive action may be in order.

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Global Leading Economic Indicators Update

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When it's time to switch into Consumer Staples

Over time, there has been an edge in switching between consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors based on the rate of inflation.

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Economic and Consumer Sentiment Composite Buy Signal

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Manufacturing Soars - Another Lesson in The Stock Market as a Discounting Mechanism

We are conditioned to cheer good economic news and to rue bad economic news. When it comes to investing in stocks this little bit of human nature can be counterproductive. The ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides a classic case in point.

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Monitoring the Trends in Rates and Inflation

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Consumer Price Index Risk On/Risk Off

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Where inflation is and what it means

While concerns about inflation are raging, an objective model shows that in the current regime, stocks have done just fine.

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What You Need to Know About Inflation (Part III)

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What You Need to Know About Inflation (Part II)

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What You Need to Know About Inflation (Part I)

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A major breakout in recovery sector stocks

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The yield curve has done this only 3 other times

The 2-year / 10-year Treasury yield curve has cycled from negative to above 110 basis points for the 4th time in 30 years.

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Bending the curve

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A New Buy Signal in Housing

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Futures traders' odd position in Treasuries

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Emerging market surprises gain momentum

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Metals and bonds give different picture as excess liquidity spikes

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Dollar falls into correction for the first time in years

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U.S. stocks are valued more than almost half of global economic output

The market capitalization of U.S. stocks is larger than more than 40% of global gross domestic product (GDP), the 2nd-highest amount in 60 years.

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Stocks are worth more than the whole economy

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Industrial production gears up

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The yield curve has done this 4 times in 40 years

Based on consumer attitudes, it looks like the Treasury yield curve is entering a super-steepening cycle.

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The impact of the yield curve's potential super-steepening cycle

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Weekly Wrap: Even more speculation as breadth continues to improve

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We're officially in a recession

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Economists have become too negative

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What negative interest rates might mean for stocks and the dollar

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Weekly Wrap: More economic weakness as stocks hold up

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Peak claims

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Macro model flips to cash

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ISM new orders crater

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Looking backward, economic data plunge

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Surge in money growth does not have a consistent record

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Sentiment recovers amid an economic plunge

Our proxy of the CNN Fear & Greed model has recovered into neutral from deep pessimism. Economic surprises have plunged, not good for the dollar.

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Economic surprises suffer historic plunge

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Weekly Wrap: Initial signs of a recovery, even with weak breadth and bad economic data

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Bad surprises and the probability of a bear market

A Goldman Sachs model estimating the likelihood of a further 20% decline is on track to plunge. Economic surprises have made a historic drop.

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Weekly Wrap: Historic plunge, compressed stimulus, and massive buying thrusts

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Bear market probability is on the verge of plunging

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This is (and isn't) like 2008

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Fed emergency rate cut asset reactions

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Financial conditions have never been easier...or bubbly

The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is at a practical maximum reading. Growth stocks have surged relative to value stocks.

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Leading Indicators Lag As S&P Suffers Key Reversal

The Leading Economic Indicators is showing the worst growth in years. The S&P 500 suffered a key reversal day from a high.

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What's Wrong With The Smart Money?

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Another one bites the dustThe Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index® is a popular indicator to watch for potential recessions ahead, and the latest ...

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Econo-Dread, Options Fear, Money Tree, Dollar Impact On Earnings Season, Transports, Hated Commodities

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USA Leading The World In Surprises (Both Good And Bad)

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Leading the worldMost of the ways the U.S. has been surprising the world have not necessarily been the good kind. When it comes to economic reports, though, ...

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Monday Color - Breadth whipsaws, small traders, surprise spread, bond sentiment

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Investors' cash cushion is near the lowest in 30 years

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.No cash cushionIn September, individual investors reduced their cash position to one of the lowest levels in 30 years. They’re not alone. Other groups of ...

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S&P stocks are starting to roll over, but...

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Manufactured pessimismA popular economic data series has tumbled into recession territory. The ISM Manufacturing survey has cratered over the past year and ...

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Wednesday Color - 1% losses, sensitive sectors to ISM data, no cash cushion, breadth anomolies

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Tuesday Color - ISM plunge, currency flight to safety, eurozone surprises

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Foreigners Flood In As Hard Economic Data Rebounds

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Foreign flowForeign investors have started to come back to U.S. stocks after a year of net selling, as we saw earlier this week.Among other major markets, ...

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