Posts tagged as Economics

According to Bloomberg data, hard economic releases have greatly disappointed economists lately, ending a long streak of positive surprises.

Read More ...

Hard Economic Releases Keep Disappointing the Experts

2021-08-02 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

The Recession Is Officially Over (But Don't Tell Growth Stocks)

2021-07-23 | Jason Goepfert

The NBER has declared an end to the 2020 recession in the U.S. but that doesn't necessarily mean that the coast is clear.

Read More ...

Growth Stocks Don't Like the Ends of Recessions

2021-07-22 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

If Inflation is Transitory, Gasoline Prices Are About to Provide a Clue

2021-07-13 | Jay Kaeppel

The Fed keeps saying that inflation is transitory. Is it or is it not? The truth is no one knows for sure. But gasoline prices may be about to offer an important clue as to which way this all plays out. If gas prices do what they typically do, then the skies may clear fairly quickly. But if they do not, the clouds of inflation may continue to gather and darken.

Read More ...

The Real Estate Sector vs. the Economy

2021-07-09 | Jay Kaeppel

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Heavy Trucks Sales - Keep On Rolling

2021-07-07 | Jay Kaeppel

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Weekly Wrap for Jun 4 - Risk Appetite Rebounds

2021-06-04 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Excess Liquidity Is Draining From the Market

2021-06-04 | Jason Goepfert

With money flowing out of financial assets and into productive ones, Excess Liquidity is draining from the market.

Read More ...

Excess Liquidity is Being Wrung Out

2021-06-03 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

A Worrisome - and Little Known - Inflationary Warning Sign

2021-06-02 | Jay Kaeppel

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

ISM New Orders to Prices Paid Spread

2021-05-28 | Dean Christians

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

What can we learn when the grocery bill goes up

2021-05-27 | Dean Christians

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

This Fundamental Indicator Just Ended a Record Positive Streak

2021-05-25 | Jason Goepfert

For the first time in more than a year, economic reports have started to disappoint economists. That ends the longest streak in 20 years.

Read More ...

Positive Economic Surprises Come to an End

2021-05-24 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Credit Spreads Suggest the Easy Money Has Already Been Made

2021-05-13 | Jay Kaeppel

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Leading Economic Indicators as a Stock Market Indicator

2021-05-11 | Jay Kaeppel

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Don't be worried about inflation until this happens

2021-04-30 | Jason Goepfert

Inflation is on almost every investor's mind right now, and there is a precise level of rising prices when stocks do best.

Read More ...

The Inflation 4% Solution

2021-04-28 | Jay Kaeppel

Everyone seems to be talking about inflation. But the question for investors is "when does it really become a threat?" This piece offers one simple approach to alert you when inflation is likely to impact the stock market and when defensive action may be in order.

Read More ...

Global Leading Economic Indicators Update

2021-04-27 | Dean Christians

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

When it's time to switch into Consumer Staples

2021-04-19 | Jason Goepfert

Over time, there has been an edge in switching between consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors based on the rate of inflation.

Read More ...

Economic and Consumer Sentiment Composite Buy Signal

2021-04-15 | Dean Christians

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Manufacturing Soars - Another Lesson in The Stock Market as a Discounting Mechanism

2021-04-06 | Jay Kaeppel

We are conditioned to cheer good economic news and to rue bad economic news. When it comes to investing in stocks this little bit of human nature can be counterproductive. The ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides a classic case in point.

Read More ...

Monitoring the Trends in Rates and Inflation

2021-03-18 | Jay Kaeppel

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Consumer Price Index Risk On/Risk Off

2021-03-16 | Jay Kaeppel

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Where inflation is and what it means

2021-03-15 | Jason Goepfert

While concerns about inflation are raging, an objective model shows that in the current regime, stocks have done just fine.

Read More ...

What You Need to Know About Inflation (Part III)

2021-03-12 | Jay Kaeppel

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

What You Need to Know About Inflation (Part II)

2021-03-11 | Jay Kaeppel

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

What You Need to Know About Inflation (Part I)

2021-03-10 | Jay Kaeppel

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

A major breakout in recovery sector stocks

2021-02-25 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

The yield curve has done this only 3 other times

2021-02-19 | Jason Goepfert

The 2-year / 10-year Treasury yield curve has cycled from negative to above 110 basis points for the 4th time in 30 years.

Read More ...

Bending the curve

2021-02-18 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

A New Buy Signal in Housing

2021-01-25 | Dean Christians

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Futures traders' odd position in Treasuries

2020-10-06 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Emerging market surprises gain momentum

2020-09-29 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Metals and bonds give different picture as excess liquidity spikes

2020-09-10 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Dollar falls into correction for the first time in years

2020-09-01 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

U.S. stocks are valued more than almost half of global economic output

2020-08-13 | Jason Goepfert

The market capitalization of U.S. stocks is larger than more than 40% of global gross domestic product (GDP), the 2nd-highest amount in 60 years.

Read More ...

Stocks are worth more than the whole economy

2020-08-12 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Industrial production gears up

2020-07-17 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

The yield curve has done this 4 times in 40 years

2020-06-26 | Jason Goepfert

Based on consumer attitudes, it looks like the Treasury yield curve is entering a super-steepening cycle.

Read More ...

The impact of the yield curve's potential super-steepening cycle

2020-06-25 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Weekly Wrap: Even more speculation as breadth continues to improve

2020-06-13 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

We're officially in a recession

2020-06-09 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Economists have become too negative

2020-06-05 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

What negative interest rates might mean for stocks and the dollar

2020-05-15 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Weekly Wrap: More economic weakness as stocks hold up

2020-05-09 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Peak claims

2020-05-07 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Macro model flips to cash

2020-05-04 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

ISM new orders crater

2020-05-01 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Looking backward, economic data plunge

2020-04-30 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Surge in money growth does not have a consistent record

2020-04-24 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Sentiment recovers amid an economic plunge

2020-04-10 | Jason Goepfert

Our proxy of the CNN Fear & Greed model has recovered into neutral from deep pessimism. Economic surprises have plunged, not good for the dollar.

Read More ...

Economic surprises suffer historic plunge

2020-04-06 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Weekly Wrap: Initial signs of a recovery, even with weak breadth and bad economic data

2020-04-04 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Bad surprises and the probability of a bear market

2020-03-30 | Jason Goepfert

A Goldman Sachs model estimating the likelihood of a further 20% decline is on track to plunge. Economic surprises have made a historic drop.

Read More ...

Weekly Wrap: Historic plunge, compressed stimulus, and massive buying thrusts

2020-03-28 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Bear market probability is on the verge of plunging

2020-03-27 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

This is (and isn't) like 2008

2020-03-23 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Fed emergency rate cut asset reactions

2020-03-03 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Financial conditions have never been easier...or bubbly

2020-02-18 | Jason Goepfert

The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is at a practical maximum reading. Growth stocks have surged relative to value stocks.

Read More ...

Leading Indicators Lag As S&P Suffers Key Reversal

2020-01-27 | Jason Goepfert

The Leading Economic Indicators is showing the worst growth in years. The S&P 500 suffered a key reversal day from a high.

Read More ...

What's Wrong With The Smart Money?

2019-10-22 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Another one bites the dustThe Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index® is a popular indicator to watch for potential recessions ahead, and the latest ...

Read More ...

Econo-Dread, Options Fear, Money Tree, Dollar Impact On Earnings Season, Transports, Hated Commodities

2019-10-18 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

USA Leading The World In Surprises (Both Good And Bad)

2019-10-08 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Leading the worldMost of the ways the U.S. has been surprising the world have not necessarily been the good kind. When it comes to economic reports, though, ...

Read More ...

Monday Color - Breadth whipsaws, small traders, surprise spread, bond sentiment

2019-10-07 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Investors' cash cushion is near the lowest in 30 years

2019-10-03 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.No cash cushionIn September, individual investors reduced their cash position to one of the lowest levels in 30 years. They’re not alone. Other groups of ...

Read More ...

S&P stocks are starting to roll over, but...

2019-10-02 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Manufactured pessimismA popular economic data series has tumbled into recession territory. The ISM Manufacturing survey has cratered over the past year and ...

Read More ...

Wednesday Color - 1% losses, sensitive sectors to ISM data, no cash cushion, breadth anomolies

2019-10-02 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Tuesday Color - ISM plunge, currency flight to safety, eurozone surprises

2019-10-01 | Jason Goepfert

This post is available to SentimenTrader members and/or Premium members only.

Please login to to view this content

Foreigners Flood In As Hard Economic Data Rebounds

2019-09-23 | Jason Goepfert

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Foreign flowForeign investors have started to come back to U.S. stocks after a year of net selling, as we saw earlier this week.Among other major markets, ...

Read More ...