Posts tagged as Flows

As gold drops, ETF traders pile in

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Thirst for IPOs remains unquenched

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Modest internal Nasdaq selling triggers leveraged bets

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Housing stocks are on fire, and optimism is at record highs

Homebuilding stocks have been rallying hard, and homebuilder sentiment is at record highs. ETF investors have been funneling assets into XHB.

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10 straight weeks of money market leakage

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The IPO market is popping

With stocks rising, the IPO market is heating up. We're on track to potentially exceed the prior record for new share proceeds.

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IPO market is nearing records

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Investors keep shifting money from stocks to bonds

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Foreign buyers come back in a historic way

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Responding to gold's run, investors flood in

So far in 2020, investors have pushed more than $25 billion into precious metals ETFs, a record high even though we're only halfway through the year.

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All equity funds are showing negative flows

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Investors flood into precious metals, flee emerging markets

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Big money managers come back

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Institutions are coming back from the "sidelines"

Institutional investors are finally starting to pull cash from money market funds, after a historic rise in those assets.

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Institutions are coming off the "sidelines"

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Household equity holdings plunge, but remain too high

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Overseas fund exodus nears 2008 crisis low

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Who is actually buying?

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A record month for hoarding cash

In March, investors shoved nearly $700 billion into the safety of money market funds, by far a record dating back to the 1980s.

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Investors across the board are hoarding cash

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Oil and energy funds suffer record adverse actions

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Fund managers scramble for cash as they sell stocks

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Flows into money markets and away from equities

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A week for the ages

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All Aboard The Bond Bandwagon

Investors have pushed more than $60 billion into bond funds in 3 weeks. Industrial metals just hit a 3-year low.

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Big Stretch Of Calm Even As Investors Leave SPY

The S&P 500 has gone 3 months without a 1% daily move. Traders are leave the SPY ETF even as it rallies.

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ETF Traders Are Long And Leveraged; Baltic Dry Index Is Plunging

ETF traders are piling into leveraged long funds while leaving leveraged short (inverse) funds, and the Baltic Dry Index is plunging.

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Bull Stampede

The Rydex family of mutual funds is showing that investors are almost the most bullish on record.Bull stampede at RydexIn the Rydex family of mutual funds, traders have positioned themselves in perhaps the most aggressive way ever.It’s not hip to be a mutual fund manager anymore – all the cool ...

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Rydex Fund Assets Show Extreme Optimism

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ETF Traders Are Fleeing Safe Havens

Safe-have assets have lost funds, and large options traders are betting on a market rally.Haven funds lose assetsOver the past week, stocks jumped, and traders fled haven assets like bonds, gold, and the yen. It’s not just the past week, though – since October, ETF traders have been leaving ...

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Investors Are Leaving As Black Swan Risk Rises

Equity fund flows are negative, and options SKEW is rising.Leaving earlyInvestors have pulled hundreds of billions from equity funds in 2019, despite large gains in the funds. Because the gains have been so large, the outflows are small as a percentage of total assets.Still, it’s an outflow, and ...

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Pension Tension

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Public pension tensionPublic pension funds have been adding to their stock allocation, raising it significantly over the past year. They’ve also dropped their ...

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Why Investors' Money Market Rush Isn't Necessarily A Buy Signal

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Money market mysteryAssets in money market funds continue to ramp higher. Knee-jerk contrarians will take that as a buy signal, but it’s not that easy. Assets ...

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What I'm looking at - Chinese profits, Nikkei breadth, Germany breakout, VIX Put/Call, fund flows

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ETF traders pull out of small caps as fear creeps in

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Small slumpThe IWM small-cap fund has been suffering one of its worst stretches in a decade, with ETF traders consistently pulling money from it over the past ...

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Wednesday Color - Small-cap outflows, financial & energy breadth, natty drop, energy options

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Thursday Color - Gold flow and open interest, bond flow, VIX call buying, Hang Seng rollover

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Small options traders bought this much protection only 3 times in 20 years

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Small traders being testedThe smallest of options traders keep buying a large amount of put options. Over the past 6 weeks, they’ve spent more than 24% of ...

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Foreigners Flood In As Hard Economic Data Rebounds

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Foreign flowForeign investors have started to come back to U.S. stocks after a year of net selling, as we saw earlier this week.Among other major markets, ...

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ETF Traders, Foreigners Jump In Right Before Momentum Stock Shock

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Momentum stock shockAfter last week’s huge drop in momentum stocks, and shift toward value from growth, those shares fell a bit more and have since rebounded. ...

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Thursday Color - Russell vs S&P Volatility, Summation Extremes, IWM Inflow, AAII Bulls

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Wednesday Color - FOMC Bias, Emerging Recovery, Japan, Fund Flow

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Tuesday Color - Value's Back, Small Business Outlook, Euro Banks, Index & Gold ETF Flow

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What I'm looking at - GS Bear Market, Consumers, Rydex, Earnings, Seasonality

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Wednesday Color - Wall Street Pessimism, Utility Surge, Overseas Flow, Copper

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Friday Color - Equity Outflow, Breadth High, Oscillator Extremes, Mexico Rebound, Dollar Pain

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Gold Has Only Done This 4 Other Times

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Stocks down, bonds upHeading into the last few sessions of the month, the total return on the S&P 500 was on track for one of its worst in almost 30 years ...

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Wednesday Color - Stocks Down + Bonds Up, MACD Sell, Energy Lows, Gold RSI

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Timing A Move Out Of Stocks, As They Whip Around And Bond Spreads Blow Out

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bond blowoutThe riskiest segment of the corporate bond market has been suffering, while safer bonds have been less of a focus for sellers.That raises the ...

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What I'm looking at - Put/Call spike, Rydex flows, Rydex breadth, Economic Surprise & bonds

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Market overview: combining technicals & fundamentals

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A High HiLo As Investors Rush Into Cash

High HiLoA breadth indicator popularized several decades ago is highlighting a historically split market. To one of the largest degrees in years, there are a lot of winning and a lot of losing stocks at the same time.Per Investopedia, the HiLo Logic Index:The high-low index compares stocks that ...

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Tuesday Color - Gamma, Dislocations, Merval & Hang Seng, Emerging Fund Outflow, Bond Optix

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Tuesday Color - Opening Volatility, New Lows, Sector Extremes, Big Outflows

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Investors Keep Hoarding Cash

NOTE: This will be the last Lite post for the next week.Lagging the market, and cashThe broader stock market has done well over the past month, but an abnormally large – and increasing – number of Fidelity Select sector funds are lagging even the return on cash.It’s not “odd” funds like precious ...

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Wednesday Color - ETF Asset Drop, P/C Ratio, Fidelity Sectors, Warning Signs, Bond Bulls, Debt Contraction, Mexico

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Bullish Options Traders, Buying Climaxes, Silver Flow, Hedgers' Bets, Breadth

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Tuesday Color - Earnings, ETF Flows, Gold vs Baltic Index, XLY, New Moon

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Tech Has Led - What That Should Mean For The Summer

Similar sector first halvesThe S&P 500 has enjoyed great gains through the first half of the year, as have most of its sectors. Looking at other years when the S&P gained at least 10% through June that had the most similar returns among sectors, the next couple of months tended to be ...

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Monday Color - Short-Term Optimism, Funds Vs Options, Lagging Small Caps And Surprises, Bulls Return, Bonds

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Friday Color - Massive Flows, Dollar Trend, Stock/Bond Rally, Whiplash, Sector Highs

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Wednesday Color - Everything Rallies, Bond Flow and Vol, Within 1%, Energy, France

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Why Aren't Hedgies Buying?

Another near-thrustEnough stocks have risen during the past two weeks, with enough volume flow, that it has nearly triggered another Zweig Breadth Thrust.Like we’ve seen with a lot of indicators over the past month or so, what’s most notable about these readings isn’t necessarily what they’re ...

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Friday Color - Bond Flow (!), Recession Risk, Breadth Thrust, Gold Options, Stock Screen

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Wednesday Color - Reverval, Outflows, Overseas Surges, Copper

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Tuesday Color - Gaps Up, Bond Flow, Weird Volatility, Sector Highs

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Tuesday Color - Bond Volatility And Optimism, Gold, Flows, Tech Breadth

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Why This Has Been A Healthy Pullback

From new high to downtrendBarely a month after it was sitting at an all-time high, the S&P 500 fell far enough and fast enough to close below its 200-day average.This is one of the index’s quicker turnarounds from being at a multi-year high to falling below its average. When it had spent at ...

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Large Fund Outflow In An Uptrend

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Friday Color - More Gaps, Peso, Outflows, Bond Binge

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Thursday Color - Junk Flow, Stocks vs Bonds, Anxiety Alerts, Sector Breadth

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Wednesday Midday Color - Technical Buy, Asia Flows, Economic Woes

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Monday Midday Color - Gaps Again, Sector Divvies, Flight To Safety

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Are You Panicking Like Everyone Else?

Panic-level sellingWe’ve already touched on the persistent negative gaps traders have faced most mornings over the last couple of weeks. It’s worth noting again, because the gaps are now on par with panic-level conditions over the past 35 years.Other than 2008, future returns were excellent. ...

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Foreigners Are Selling, And That's A Good Sign

Home country biasThe latest data from the Treasury shows that foreign investors have been selling U.S. stocks at a record pace. They’ve sold an average of $17 billion per month for the past year.That accounts for about 0.05% of the total market cap of U.S. equities, the most in 30 years. During ...

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Wednesday Midday Color - Big Outflows, More Hedging, Falling Momo

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The Dow Is Being A Dud

Dow dudThe Dow Industrials dropped below the 50-day average for the first time in months. When it loses its trend after such a long time, and when so near a multi-year high, it has tended to snap back. It was an even better sign for the S&P 500.It was also the only one of the “big four” equity ...

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IPO Fervor Returns

Overseas out, bonds inNear the end of April, investors fled non-U.S. equity funds, with the 2nd-largest outflow in five years. That has been a good contrary indicator in the past.At the same time, they moved more into bonds, with other measures confirming the increasingly consensus sentiment ...

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Thursday Midday Color - More Bond Bulls, Hefty Flows

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Monday Midday Color - Cranky Calls, Big Breadth, Can't-Miss Swiss

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Friday Midday Color - Flows, Breadth Extremes, Shanghai

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Does The Low Volume Really Matter?

Low-volume rallyEach of the past three weeks has seen the S&P 500 inch ever closer to a new high. At the same time, investors have grown increasingly comfortable, as volume continues to decline and is now more than 10% below its yearly average.It’s entirely normal for volume to ratchet higher ...

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Friday Midday Color

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Tuesday Midday Color

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Tuesday Midday Color

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Monday Midday Color

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Tepid Fund Flows With Record Exodus From Financials

Tepid equity flowThe S&P 500 has jumped more than 12% over the past two months, yet inflows to equity funds continue to be tepid.This is one of the few times that stocks have performed so well over a two-month span, with negative equity flows during the rally. Future returns in the S&P were ...

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Tuesday Midday Color

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Mystery Buyers As Breadth Momentum Hits Epic Proportions

Mystery buyerThere are many remarkable aspects to the rally over the past two months, including who’s buying. Large speculators in index futures continue to sell. So do small speculators.Hedge funds don’t seem to be buying. And neither do mutual fund or ETF investors. All of these are a change ...

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SPY Losing Assets As It Rallies

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Nasdaq Escapes Bear Market As Investors Pull Out

Escaping the bearThe Nasdaq Composite has ended its bear market, at least according to two metrics. Unlike its rallies during the 2001 and 2008 bear markets, this time it has managed to exceed the 61.8% retracement of the decline. And it has rallied 20% from its low, the accepted definition of a ...

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Record Outflow As Mom-And-Pop Sit On The Sidelines

Record flowComprehensive data on mutual fund flows confirm that the massive loss in December for equity funds was the largest on record, dating back 35 years. As a percentage of assets, it was exceeded only by July 2002 and October 2008 in recent history.Money market funds saw huge inflows, but ...

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ETF Traders Not Buying The Rally; Nasdaq Is First "Big Four" Above Average

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Not buying itIn the three weeks following the December low, leveraged ETF traders have abandoned long funds while flowing into inverse (short) funds, suggesting they’re betting against the rally. When we look at the largest leveraged index ETFs ...

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Breadth Thrust From The Low; Record Stock And Bond Fund Outflows

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Get me inDuring rally attempts in November and December, one worry was that there were no strong thrusts in breadth. Both failed. During this latest rally, there have been two such days, so strong that there are few historical precedents.Maybe it’s ...

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Earnings Recession; Investors Reduce Exposure; Record Outflows

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Recession talkConcerns are rising about a recession. Even if we don’t see an economic one, we may be in store for an earnings recession.The data is not showing that as likely, but even if it happens, it does not necessarily mean that stock prices ...

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Newsletters Are Shorting; Breadth Swings; No Highs; Big Outflow; Buying Stampede

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Get shortyWhile individual investors in the AAII survey became pessimistic a week ago, this week there were more than 50% bears in the survey for the first time in 5 years. That has made a different in other surveys, too. According to one measure ...

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Investors Flee Equities; Highly-Correlated Declines; December Selling

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Leaving en masseInvestors yanked $46 billion from equity funds this week. Even accounting for the usually mid-December outflow, as a percentage of total fund assets, this is the largest outflow in at least 15 years.After the other weeks when there ...

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Yield Curve Inversion; Intense Selling; November Flows

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Upside downThe yields on 2- and 3-year Treasuries are now higher than 5-year maturities, an inversion of the short end of the yield curve.This tends to precede an inversion of the more common 2-year vs 10-year yields. But there has been a long lead ...

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No Flight To Safety In Bonds; Investors Have Turned Pessimistic

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bond market movesBonds sold off along with stocks during the last two big pullbacks this year, showing no flight to safety. That is unlike 2016 when bonds rose as stocks declined.Historically, when bonds declined along with stocks during a selloff, ...

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Smart Money Moves In As Dumb Money Leaves

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Smart money moves inTraders who tend to buy into declining prices spotted an opportunity over the past week. Hedgers in the major equity index futures contracts covered nearly $19 billion of their short position, one of the largest one-week changes ...

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Comfort Nears Record High As ETF Inflows Surge

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A comfortable timeConsumers are about as comfortable as they’ve been at any time in 30 years according to the latest survey from Bloomberg. Other periods of exceptionally high comfort led to trouble in stocks, but years later, while gold did ...

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XLK And XLY Spike In Assets

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Dollar Positions Hit Highs As Investors Leave Equity Funds

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Non-dollar pain hits year highA measure of positioning in the dollar has reached an extreme level amid its highest level in a year just as it nears its seasonal peak.Forward returns in the buck were weak, especially in the next 3-6 months, while ...

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Yield Curve Favors Defense As ETF Investors Flee Developed Markets

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Curve favors the defenseA narrow yield curve has led to good returns in defensive sectors. By the time the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields got as low as it was in July, future returns in the dollar were muted to negative, leading ...

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Risk Appetite Wanes As Small-Caps' Trend Ends And Funds See Outflows

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Lack of risk appetiteDiscretionary stocks are at a multi-month low relative to defensive Staples.That sign of risk-off behavior is unusual with the S&P near a high but has not been a good excuse to sell stocks.Another trend endedThe small-cap ...

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A Record Beat Rate For Earnings As Investors Flee World ETFs

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A record beat rateS&P 500 companies have beat earnings expectations to a record degree. As we near the two-week mark of earnings season, about 90% of companies reported better-than-anticipated earnings. That’s more than 15% above the average beat ...

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Correction Roadmap As Leveraged ETF Bets Soar And Copper Flails

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Correction roadmapNearing six months, the current correction is about in line with others since 2009. It most closely resembles 2015, which at this point was about to test its lows.A big leveraged betAssets in leveraged ETFs betting on a rally have ...

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Options Traders Go All In As Investors Flood Into TIPS

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Options traders go all inOptions traders have rushed into bullish strategies at the expense of more conservative ones. Total call volume last week mushroomed to 32 million contracts, the highest since late January, while put volume was about ...

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ETF Investors Stay Home As Mom & Pop Go Back To Stocks

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF investors stay homeFlows into domestic ETFs have swamped that of overseas funds over the past 4 weeks.The other times it happened to this degree, world stocks started to outperform the S&P.Mom & pop ignore safetyIndividual investors are showing ...

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Fund Flows Into Ultra-Safe Bonds As Companies Enjoy Record Trust

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF investors are loving bond fundsBond funds have dominated the ETF inflow list lately, especially short-term government Treasury funds. The Technology sector is the only one that has seen large, and consistent inflows among sectors.Broad ...

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