Posts tagged as Macro


Macro model flips to cash

2020-05-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Fed emergency rate cut asset reactions

2020-03-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Stocks, Oil Diverge As Corrections Spike

2020-02-05 | Jason Goepfert


Stocks are near highs while crude oil hits a 52-week low. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks in correction territory has spiked.

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The "Energizer" Rally Keeps Going Despite Rising Jobless Claims

2020-01-13 | Jason Goepfert


Smart Money and Dumb Money spread has been wide for 2 months but momentum keeps stocks rising. Continued jobless claims are rising.

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ETF Traders Are Long And Leveraged; Baltic Dry Index Is Plunging

2020-01-08 | Jason Goepfert


ETF traders are piling into leveraged long funds while leaving leveraged short (inverse) funds, and the Baltic Dry Index is plunging.

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Investor And Advisor Optimism Is The Highest In Years

2019-12-31 | Jason Goepfert


Investor and advisor optimism has spiked, as the yield curve goes from inversion to the steepest in a year.

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A High HiLo

2019-11-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.HiLo is highOver the past week, there have been an increasing number of signs of a “split” market, with many winning and losing stocks. That has caused the ...

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OECD drops below 98

2019-11-14 | Jason Goepfert


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What's Wrong With The Smart Money?

2019-10-22 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Another one bites the dustThe Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index® is a popular indicator to watch for potential recessions ahead, and the latest ...

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Econo-Dread, Options Fear, Money Tree, Dollar Impact On Earnings Season, Transports, Hated Commodities

2019-10-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Junk Bond's Warning Sign

2019-10-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bond market warningStocks have held up well lately, more or less, but high-yield (junk) bonds are under-performing relative to other parts of the corporate ...

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Tuesday Color - VIX below 14, card rates, transport services, slow growth, utility momentum

2019-10-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Yield Curve Flips As Uncertainty Spikes

2019-10-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.NormalizingThe most widely watched Treasury yield curve un-inverted in recent days, triggering some calls that now the risk for stocks has declined, that the ...

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USA Leading The World In Surprises (Both Good And Bad)

2019-10-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Leading the worldMost of the ways the U.S. has been surprising the world have not necessarily been the good kind. When it comes to economic reports, though, ...

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Monday Color - Breadth whipsaws, small traders, surprise spread, bond sentiment

2019-10-07 | Jason Goepfert


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Investors' cash cushion is near the lowest in 30 years

2019-10-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.No cash cushionIn September, individual investors reduced their cash position to one of the lowest levels in 30 years. They’re not alone. Other groups of ...

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S&P stocks are starting to roll over, but...

2019-10-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Manufactured pessimismA popular economic data series has tumbled into recession territory. The ISM Manufacturing survey has cratered over the past year and ...

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Wednesday Color - 1% losses, sensitive sectors to ISM data, no cash cushion, breadth anomolies

2019-10-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Color - ISM plunge, currency flight to safety, eurozone surprises

2019-10-01 | Jason Goepfert


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The last 2 times there was impeachment talk, this happened

2019-09-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Impeach thisPolitical will seems to be growing to open an official impeachment inquiry against President Trump. That would mark the 3rd episode in the history ...

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Small options traders bought this much protection only 3 times in 20 years

2019-09-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Small traders being testedThe smallest of options traders keep buying a large amount of put options. Over the past 6 weeks, they’ve spent more than 24% of ...

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Foreigners Flood In As Hard Economic Data Rebounds

2019-09-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Foreign flowForeign investors have started to come back to U.S. stocks after a year of net selling, as we saw earlier this week.Among other major markets, ...

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Citi economic surprises hit 200-day high

2019-09-20 | Jason Goepfert


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ETF Traders, Foreigners Jump In Right Before Momentum Stock Shock

2019-09-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Momentum stock shockAfter last week’s huge drop in momentum stocks, and shift toward value from growth, those shares fell a bit more and have since rebounded. ...

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Industrial production falls below 0.4%

2019-09-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Bond Bulls Curb Their Enthusiasm

2019-09-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Break in bond bullsFor the first time in more than 9 months, optimism on bonds has come down to neutral territory. That ends one of the longest streaks in ...

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Oil Shock

2019-09-16 | Jason Goepfert


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