Posts tagged as Momentum

Weekly Wrap: Short-term speculation within long-term recovery

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Weekly Wrap: Signs of speculation continue to pop up

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The Nasdaq goes positive

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A front-loaded rally as gains peter out

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Weekly Wrap: A strong start even as economic data plunge

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A 'double' Zweig Breadth Thrust just as we hit the worst six months

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Stocks have rarely done this before

The S&P 500 has gained at least 1% at some point intraday for the last 6 days. That's one of the longest streaks in nearly 40 years.

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S&P notches yet another big intraday gain

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Underlying momentum has turned negative

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Another thrust narrowly missed

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Weekly Wrap: News flow still horrid, but the buying thrust has been historic

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A breadth thrust that wasn't

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Another surge as Dow nears 20% threshold

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Breadth coming back to normal

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Quick pullback from all-time high

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Bulls' nightmare week

The past 2 days have seen a historic selloff in stocks, cycling from new highs to multi-month lows. This week saw back-to-back 90% down days.

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Warnings spike as complacency ends

Technical warning signs have piled up over the past month. The Nasdaq 100 has relieved its overbought condition for the first time in 3 months.

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Stocks can't keep up...and a dirty little secret

A record number of S&P 500 stocks are falling behind the index itself. How to be a successful newsletter writer - don't ever be wrong!

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Is the stock market's rally dead?

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Dollar momentum isn't stopping gold

The correlation between gold and the dollar is breaking down. The Relative Strength Index for the dollar has now pushed into extreme territory.

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Options traders spend billions betting that this rally won't end

Each of the past two weeks, options traders have spent at least $7 billion in bets on a rally. The Nasdaq's correlation to 1999 isn't exclusive.

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Market overview: tech and growth stocks surge

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7-figure accounts surge along with mo-mo market

There has been a surge in 401k millionaire accounts, an 80% jump from a year ago. The S&P 500 hasn't pulled back more than 5% for 6 months.

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What I'm looking at - standard deviations, tech breadth, relative strength, USD

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1/3 of days at all-time highs

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Mom & Pop are manic about stocks

Trading activity among retail traders has gone parabolic, due in part to zero commissions. The S&P 500 has hit 36 all-time highs in the past 4 months.

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Island Of Misfit Bears

The S&P 500 formed an island formation. Crude oil has now dropped for 5 straight weeks.

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Market & fundamentals overview: the rally continues

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Half Of Nasdaq Stocks Are In Bear Markets

Half of the stocks on the Nasdaq are in bear markets, and nearly 70% are in corrections. The S&P 500 hasn't had a 7% drawdown in a year.

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What I'm looking at - Dow earnings, German manufacturing, tech rally, shallow drawdowns, Treasuries sentiment

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A 4th Straight Gap Up

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Sentiment Is Normalizing As Technical Warnings Trigger

Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence shows sentiment is starting to normalize. The Hindenburg Omen is triggering again.

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Market & fundamentals overview: the overdue pullback?

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As Good As It Gets For Trend Followers

The S&P 500 has gone 3 months with great gains and very little volatility. There has been a jump in breadth extremes in defensive sectors.

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Options Traders Have Never Done This Before

Options traders are buying calls to open and not selling many as an offset. The small-cap Russell 2000 is close to breaking out.

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An Extreme - And Protracted - Stretch Of Optimism

There has been an extreme number of indicators showing optimism over the past month. More than 25% of S&P 500 stocks are overbought.

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Big Stretch Of Calm Even As Investors Leave SPY

The S&P 500 has gone 3 months without a 1% daily move. Traders are leave the SPY ETF even as it rallies.

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What I'm looking at - Cass Freight Index, strength of the trend, more breadth, Put/Call

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The "Energizer" Rally Keeps Going Despite Rising Jobless Claims

Smart Money and Dumb Money spread has been wide for 2 months but momentum keeps stocks rising. Continued jobless claims are rising.

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Market & fundamentals overview: the relentless rally continues

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The Market "Un-Splits" As Momentum Is Relentless

The HiLo Logic Index shows an un-split market, and momentum has helped stocks hit new all-time highs more than 25 times in 3 months.

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What I'm looking at - relentless rally, bullish percent index, recession probabilities, abandoning utilities

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Options Traders Are Leveraged After A Good Year-End

After a good end to the year, stocks often struggle, and options traders are leveraged and bullish, with the U.S. dollar breaking down

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Market & fundamentals overview: looking at the year ahead

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What I'm looking at - equity Put/Call, low volatility, relentless momentum, low volume, Brazil

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Investors' Very (Very, Very) Good Year

The value of household equities in 2019 is going to show one of the best gains on record.Investors’ very good yearThe value of American households’ holdings in corporate equities and mutual funds has surged 25% over the past year to a new high. This ranks 2019 among the very best since 1951.Once ...

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Persistent Momentum Gets Investors Back In The Mood

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Investors are back in the moodAfter more than 9 months, the AAII survey of individual investors shows that more than two-thirds of them are finally ...

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What I'm looking at - sentiment, LEI, Hong Kong volatility, strong momentum, Mexico surge

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Net New Highs On NYSE And Nasdaq Hit 6-Month High

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MSCI All World and NYSE Composite Indexes Break Out

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CFOs Are Getting More Confident (But Their Bosses...)

Corporate insiders, CEOs and CFOs, are becoming more optimistic as stock market indexes break out.Insiders show diverging sentimentIn recent quarters, corporate CFOs have become more optimistic after a long time expecting declining conditions. At the same time, their bosses (CEOs) have continued ...

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Smart Money Is Betting On The "Gundlach Ratio"

Smart money is betting on the Gundlach Ratio to predict a rise in interest rates, and micro-cap stocks are breaking out.Smart money’s bet on ‘Gundlach Ratio'Respected bond fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach highlighted his use of a ratio of copper to gold to forecast the future path of interest ...

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Bond Market Does The Splits

The bond market is showing split performance, and stock market momentum is impressive.More splits than a gymnastDifferent parts of the bond market are seeing vastly different treatment from investors. Riskier, lower-credit parts of the market are seeing low demand and heavy selling pressure ...

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Is This A Blow-Off Top?

The S&P might be showing signs of a blow off top, and the range in Chinese stocks is very small.Blow-off behavior?Heading into Thanksgiving, stocks just couldn’t lose. The S&P 500 managed to sport a positive return on all common time frames, with a strong median gain, while hitting new highs to ...

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All 'Bout That 'Mo

The Nasdaq has rallied 9 out of 11 months, and the MACD indicator is about to turn up.MomentumWith just one month left this year, U.S. equities have rallied significantly year-to-date. U.S. equity indices like the NASDAQ Composite have gone up 9 of the past 11 months.As is the case with most ...

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What I'm looking at - momentum, MACD, Medium Term Risk Levels, GS Current Activity Indicator

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What The Breakout In Small Caps Might Mean

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Intermediate Term Optimism IndexWith the stock market pushing higher relentlessly, sentiment remains elevated. Our Intermediate Term Optimism Index's 20 day ...

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A Cluster Of Warnings

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Cluster funkIf we focus on one particular data point too much, then we risk getting blindsided by a structural market change or simply a failed signal. That’s ...

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What I'm looking at - LEI, sentiment pullback, low volatility stocks, NASDAQ, Index Put/Call

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Stocks Haven't Done This For 7 Years

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.There’s always tomorrowSince early October, holders of the S&P 500 have not had to suffer back-to-back losses. It’s been 25 sessions since the S&P faced ...

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Risk Is Back, Baby

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Risk on assetsOver the past 50 days, a handful of “risk on” assets have all returned more than 2.5%, while “risk off” assets have all lost more than -2.5%, ...

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Pension Tension

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Public pension tensionPublic pension funds have been adding to their stock allocation, raising it significantly over the past year. They’ve also dropped their ...

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Why Investors' Money Market Rush Isn't Necessarily A Buy Signal

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Money market mysteryAssets in money market funds continue to ramp higher. Knee-jerk contrarians will take that as a buy signal, but it’s not that easy. Assets ...

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Speculative Options Trading Picks Up

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Options optimismThanks to a lot of volume in index options, the CBOE’s total put/call ratio dropped to a very low level. Over the past two weeks, it has moved ...

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Value Line arithmetic index breaks out to new high

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One Of These Things Is Not Like The Others

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.One of these things is not like the othersOut of the “big four” equity indexes, the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq are all sitting at new all-time highs. The small-cap ...

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Smart Money vs Dumb Money Is Getting Extreme

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Confidence conflictQuite a few times over the past couple of months, we’ve discussed how various aspects of sentiment were curiously subdued. From individual ...

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The Year That Everything Rallied

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.The year of everythingThrough late October, stocks, bonds, gold, and oil are all showing solid year-to-date gains. This is only the 5th year in the past 30 ...

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VIX drops below 13 for 1st time in 50 days

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Everything is rallying this year

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What I'm looking at - TLT Optix, Leading vs. Coincident, Russell range, DAX breadth, REITs, Smart Money Index

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A rebound in momentum but investors are still crabby

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.In recoveryMomentum stocks have largely recovered from the swift, massive losses earlier in September. That drop triggered a rise in anxiety, but it’s not the ...

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Momentum stocks go from -10% to +10%

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Thursday Color - Momo rebound, AAII stagnant, sector breadth lag, MLP pessimism

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What I'm looking at - momentum's resurgence, new highs-lows, Index Put/Call, job openings, soft data

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Wednesday Color - Small-cap outflows, financial & energy breadth, natty drop, energy options

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Gold hasn't done this for a decade

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Heavy hedgingThe smallest of options traders continue to protect themselves against a market decline to an unusually heavy degree. Last week, they spent ...

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Monday Color - Small traders, dollar sellers, S&P momentum, quarterly run, energy bonds

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Why this is different than other bull market peaks

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bear market momentumThe big drop in momentum stocks earlier this month triggered the theory that the long bull market in stocks was likely over, since ...

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Wednesday color - Utility surge impact on stocks/gold, breadth rollover, skittish signs, Egypt

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Small options traders bought this much protection only 3 times in 20 years

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Small traders being testedThe smallest of options traders keep buying a large amount of put options. Over the past 6 weeks, they’ve spent more than 24% of ...

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McClellan Summation above zero for 169 days

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ETF Traders, Foreigners Jump In Right Before Momentum Stock Shock

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Momentum stock shockAfter last week’s huge drop in momentum stocks, and shift toward value from growth, those shares fell a bit more and have since rebounded. ...

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S&P 500 after Momentum 10-day average z-score > 2.5

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A Big Jump In Big Money Bulls

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Big money gets bullishThe latest survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch that polls large money managers with nearly $700 billion under management showed a ...

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Wednesday Color - FOMC Bias, Emerging Recovery, Japan, Fund Flow

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Nikkei 225 sees jump in stocks at 1-month high

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Thursday Color - Breakaway Gaps, Japan Jumps, Small-Caps Pop, Dollar

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A Historic Turn In Fortunes

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Growth no mo’ momoThe swift exodus from momentum stocks has hit those classified as “growth” hard, especially relative to those considered to be “value.” The ...

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Momentum Traders' Massive Loss

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Massive momentum moveOn Monday, many momentum traders likely had their worst day in a decade. Stocks that showed the best gains year-to-date suffered some of ...

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Tuesday Color - Value's Back, Small Business Outlook, Euro Banks, Index & Gold ETF Flow

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Gold's Shocking Drop

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Gold’s bull runETF traders have consistently poured money into gold funds, even during Thursday’s big drop, which was a “shocking” decline.It started to fall ...

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Friday Color - Equity Outflow, Breadth High, Oscillator Extremes, Mexico Rebound, Dollar Pain

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Gold Has Only Done This 4 Other Times

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Stocks down, bonds upHeading into the last few sessions of the month, the total return on the S&P 500 was on track for one of its worst in almost 30 years ...

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Wednesday Color - Stocks Down + Bonds Up, MACD Sell, Energy Lows, Gold RSI

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S&P 500 after McOsc rises above 0 and McSumm never went < +100

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Friday Color - Lows Recede, Summation Rollover, Bad Ag, Bond Bulls (Again)

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200 Reasons Why The Hindenburg Omen Matters

Warning signsFor the first time since October 2018, there are hints of trouble brewing beneath the market. While major indexes have been at or near all-time highs, under the surface there are more and more stocks losing momentum, and there has been a split with many securities at 52-week highs ...

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Friday Color - Gold Momentum, Internal Warnings, Mexico

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Momentum Is Waning And Stocks Are Starting To Split

Six months of momentumThe McClellan Summation Index has now gone 6 months in positive territory.That’s a long streak compared to others since 1962. Momentum is very difficult to time, almost by definition, but by the time this measure of breadth momentum went this long above zero, forward ...

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Thursday Color - Fading 'Mo, Energy Stock Drop, Titanic Signal, Cotton, Euro Junk

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Monday Color - Discretionary Streak, Fund Exposure, Small Trader Enthusiasm, Earnings Season

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Tech Has Led - What That Should Mean For The Summer

Similar sector first halvesThe S&P 500 has enjoyed great gains through the first half of the year, as have most of its sectors. Looking at other years when the S&P gained at least 10% through June that had the most similar returns among sectors, the next couple of months tended to be ...

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This Is One Of Tech's Quickest Recoveries

New highs, but...The S&P jumped to a record high along with several other indexes on Monday (and Tuesday) but fewer stocks were coming along for the ride both days. The percentage of stocks on the NYSE and within the S&P itself has shrunk from when the indexes moved toward new highs in June.That ...

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Tuesday Color - Tech's Recovery, Gold Loss, Sector Breadth, Semi's, Japan's Surprises

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Why Gold Bugs Shouldn't Fear A False Breakout

Risk-on hasn’t caught onMonday’s session was almost totally risk-on, even if the magnitude faded during the day. Most “risk-on” assets rose, which was the case on Friday, too. But over the past 200 days, risk-off sessions have dominated, reversing the trend that led up to the fall of 2018.Since ...

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Best June In Decades Is Hated By Wall Street

A good monthThe S&P 500 enjoyed its best June gain since 1955, with 1999 being the only other year with more than a 5% gain. It also managed to hit a multi-year high during the month.Since 1928, this has had a strong tendency to lead to a good start to July, but not so much after that. For the ...

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Monday Color - High Gap, Weekly Indicators, Sector Breadth

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The Everything Rally

The everything rallyTotal return stock and bond indexes are hitting all-time highs at the same time. They cover an array of stocks and bonds, suggesting extreme breadth of buying interest, as noted by Bloomberg.When they’ve all hit records together, it has been an especially good longer-term ...

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Friday Color - Massive Flows, Dollar Trend, Stock/Bond Rally, Whiplash, Sector Highs

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Gold Just Did Something For The 1st Time In 25 Years

Gold’s near-record streakGold broke out to a multi-year high for the first time in more than 2,000 days, which was nearly its longest streak in 40 years.The ends of other super-long streaks without a new high all saw the metal trade lower over the next couple of months. The dollar tended to be ...

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Tight Range Following A Surge

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Monday Color - New Highs, Material Gain, Financials, Gold, Small Traders, 5 Straight

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Friday Color - Jobs, Econ Surprises, 4 Gains, Breadth, Energy, Gold

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Buyers' 1-2 Punch For Stocks

A one-two rallyThe S&P 500 fell to a 50-day low on Monday, and the charts didn’t look good, but they hid a lot of underlying potential. Both Monday and Tuesday saw eager buying pressure under the surface, and Tuesday’s one-day jump in the S&P was the largest in nearly six months.When the index ...

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Tuesday's Jump, Breadth Recovery, Bitcoin, Corn

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Tuesday Midday Color - Shanghai, , DAX, Bond Bulls, Euro Sentiment

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5 Weeks Of Losses - What's Next?

Dow dingedThe Dow Industrials have lost ground for five straight weeks, its 2nd-worst stretch since the financial crisis and among its worst since 1900.It’s relatively unusual to see such a string of losses while relatively close to a 52-week high, and over the past 40 years that has led to ...

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Friday Midday Color - Dow's 5th Loss, Energy Breadth, Utes, Social Negatives

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A Perfect Technical Buy Signal

Earnings approach peakSince last fall, earnings among S&P 500 companies have been in a pullback. A recent trend higher has nearly erased that and they’re closer to their peak than they’ve been in six months.After other times earnings near their peak after several months, stocks performed well.A ...

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Wednesday Midday Color - Technical Buy, Asia Flows, Economic Woes

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This Has Happened To Tech Only Twice Before

From first to worstStocks have lost one of their biggest drivers. Tech stocks have powered much of the rally through April, and then fell hard. The sector was leading the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors, and then fell to the worst among them over the past few weeks.That does not happen often, and ...

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Friday Midday Color - Bonds, Renewed Momo, Overseas Extremes

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Traders Are Panicking The Most Since The Financial Crisis

More momentum miscuesSigns of waning momentum are everywhere. One of the more impressive signs of intense underlying buying was in the Dow Industrials, where the McClellan Summation Index held above 1,000 for nearly three months, until now.Other times that extreme momentum finally ended over the ...

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Wednesday Midday Color - Big Outflows, More Hedging, Falling Momo

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Momentum Traders' First Real Test

Testing momentumIn early January, stocks registered a Zweig Breath Thrust when Up Volume quickly swung from oversold to overbought. This week, the indicator hit an oversold level for the first time, testing momentum traders’ conviction.Other times that months passed between a thrust and the ...

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Sentiment Is Curling

Summation finally weakensWe’ve discussed the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indexes a lot in recent months, because they have been showing notable readings of momentum. That’s starting to ease with the long-term Summation Index, which dropped below 750 for the first time in months, ending ...

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Friday Midday Color - Pre-Market Fear, Failures, Overseas Extremes, Momentum Drops

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4 Energetic Extremes

Energy extremesThe selling pressure earlier this week in the energy sector triggered several shorter-term extremes in breadth. Most of those stocks fell to their lowest in a month, below their volatility bands. Few held above their short-term moving averages.When the sector had rebounded more ...

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Friday Midday Color - Momentum Market, Energy Washout, Russell Breakout

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Why Beans Should Bounce

No oomph in OscillatorThe McClellan Oscillator hasn’t been able to get above zero even as the S&P 500 and other indexes tick to new highs on multiple days.Over the past 57 years, this has been a negative sign of underlying weakness for stocks, though the sample is small, and the most recent ...

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Wednesday Midday Color - Sagging Summation, Missing MoMo, Strategist Switch

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Tech Tour De Force, Even With Big Money On Sidelines

A tech tour de forceThe tech sector has been on a record run over the past 18 weeks.Going back 93 years, the only other time it had a run like this was in June 1957. There were slightly lesser streaks, including near the peak of the bubble years in 2000 and prior to the 1987 crash. While not a ...

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Breadth Breathes As A Bearish Candle Engulfs Oil

Breadth takes a breatherIn January, breadth momentum was so impressive that the McClellan Oscillator held above 50 for over a month. Since then, it hasn’t climbed above that level even as stocks made great gains.This is a divergence that has triggered near several important market peaks, but the ...

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A Most Excellent Recovery

An excellent recoveryThe S&P 500’s new high marks an end to the correction, one of the S&P’s most impressive recoveries from a major decline from a prior all-time high. Other times it made a somewhat similarly-sized recovery over a quick- to moderate time frame, it tended to keep going, but it ...

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Tuesday Midday Color - S&P Recovery, Pound Probabilities, Mixed Breadth

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Uh-Oh, Options Speculators Are Back

Sector battleThe ratio between the S&P 500’s technology and health care sectors has swung by an extreme amount. The 50-day rate of change in the ratio between the two has cycled from negative to a 10-year high.Since 1990, other times it swung like this, tech suffered, while health care held up ...

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Investors Cycle Into Cyclicals, Tech

Cyclical reboundCyclical stocks got hit hard late last year, especially relative to defensive stocks. They’ve made an impressive rebound. The rate of change on the ratio of cyclical to defensive stocks has cycled from an extreme low to an extreme high.Over the past 20 years, a cycle like this ...

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Wednesday Midday Color - Tech Breakout & Breadth, Screens

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Most Confident "Dumb Money" In A Decade

Maximum optimismDumb Money Confidence has been climbing steadily for a month, and stocks have so far shrugged off that extreme optimism. Now it has reached its highest level in a decade.Every date that saw this high of a reading in the past 20 years sported a negative return in the S&P 500 at ...

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Does The Low Volume Really Matter?

Low-volume rallyEach of the past three weeks has seen the S&P 500 inch ever closer to a new high. At the same time, investors have grown increasingly comfortable, as volume continues to decline and is now more than 10% below its yearly average.It’s entirely normal for volume to ratchet higher ...

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Friday Midday Color

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Thursday Midday Color

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Wednesday Midday Color

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Tech's Perfect Signal

Tech’s fully recoveryOut of the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors, only one has made a fully recovery from the December decline, and it’s an important one. The information technology group has fully recovered from its decline of more than 24%.Other times it fully recovered a drop of 20% or more within ...

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Tuesday Midday Color

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2 Reasons Why Earnings Season Is A Worry

Let the earnings beginAs companies start to report earnings this week, there is a fear that projected weak growth could be a stumbling block. To check, we go back to 1930 and look for every two-year span with the most similar earnings pattern of high growth, then low to negative growth, then ...

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The Curious Case Of Ebbing Momentum

No mo’ mo-mo?Even as the S&P 500 index trades at a fresh 100-day high, the ratio of the S&P 500 Momentum Index to the S&P itself is struggling, and just hit a 30-day low.This divergence is like what happened last August. Longer-term, failing momentum wasn’t a consistent negative, but three of ...

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Friday Midday Color

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An Important Shanghai Rally Amid Terrible Economic Surprises

An important thresholdWhen big rallies in the Shanghai Composite failed, fewer than 90% of stocks on the exchange had managed to rise above their 200-day averages. When more than 90% did so, the rallies lasted long-term, at least over the past 17 years. That just happened again.It’s also been a ...

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Shanghai Rally Bodes Well Long-Term

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Wednesday Midday Color

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Why The Price Surge Is A Good Sign

GoldenThe concept of a Golden Cross is over-hyped, but it’s still a popular question. Putting some context to it, when the S&P’s 50-day average crosses above its 200-day after a medium-term decline, forward returns were okay, but nothing special. Over the next three months, an investor's average ...

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Surge In S&P For The Quarter, Off A Low, And With Bonds

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Monday Midday Color

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Who's Afraid Of An IPO Surge?

New issuesThe IPO market is thawing, and we could be on track for a record-breaking year. The only other years that investors absorbed this much in new issues, stocks stumbled the next year. But when accounting for inflation and the growing market value of all equities, it’s not such a worry.If ...

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Stocks, Bonds Rise As Volatility Diverges

A balanced investor’s dreamThe S&P 500’s total return over the past three months is well over 10%. The total return in an aggregate bond index is up over 3% at the same time, a large move for that market.When both markets enjoyed such large total returns over a multi-month period, it tended to ...

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Catching Up

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Hedgers Are Hedging As Transports Lag Amid Momentum Ebb

Hedgers actually hedgingHedgers in the major index futures pared their positions by more than $10 billion at the end of February. That’s one of their larger one-week increases in hedging activity.When they’ve made such big changes in the past, it has been a bit of a negative for stocks.Dow ...

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Wednesday Midday Color

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Options Bulls Return As Investors Get Whipsawed

Options bulls returnThe smallest of options traders spent nearly 60% of their volume last week on bullish strategies, either buying call options or selling puts to open. That’s among the most aggressive bullishness using real money since the financial crisis.There were some weeks that showed ...

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Mystery Buyers As Breadth Momentum Hits Epic Proportions

Mystery buyerThere are many remarkable aspects to the rally over the past two months, including who’s buying. Large speculators in index futures continue to sell. So do small speculators.Hedge funds don’t seem to be buying. And neither do mutual fund or ETF investors. All of these are a change ...

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Slowing GDP As Survey Sentiment Rebounds During A Nice Couple Of Months

Slowing growthThe GDP release relieved some investors by being better than feared. But forecasts show that growth this quarter is likely to be the lowest in 8 quarters.Like we’ve seen during past studies looking at economic or earnings recessions, the hype doesn’t often translate to forward ...

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Thursday Midday Color

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Big Rally In Small Stocks, With Smart Money Buying

Small stocks, big rallySmall-cap stocks have rallied 24% in only two months, ranking among the best rallies since 1926.Other times they jumped to this degree, small stocks tended to rise in the months ahead, but there were some failures. The overall bias was positive, especially in terms of risk ...

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An Industrial-Led Rally As Shanghai Surprises

The rally’s workhorsesThe Industrials sector has led all major S&P 500 groups since the December 24 low, while defensive ones like Utilities have lagged.Going back to 1928 and looking at all two-month, 10% rallies from a low, we see that the rallies with the highest sector correlation to our ...

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Friday Midday Color

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A Remarkable Run, As Bulls Return And Dow Stocks Are Above Average

A remarkable runBoth the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 have enjoyed a near-historic run from their Christmas Eve lows. The magnitude of their gains, interrupted by only a few large daily losses, have been matched only a few times.The sample sizes are tiny, but the implications are mostly positive, ...

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Jobless Claims Hit 52-Week High As High Beta Shows Relative Struggles

Climbing claimsA 4-week average of jobless claims hit a 52-week high this week, triggering an increase in the probability of recession.Other times that claims cycled from a 52-week low to a 52-week high since 1967, there was a headwind for stocks and tailwind for bonds, especially over the next ...

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Sustained Momentum Even As Cumulative Net New Highs Barely Budge

Sustained momentumThe McClellan Summation Index continues to power higher, showing impressive and sustained momentum. After being below -500 for at least 10 consecutive days, it is now above +500 for 10 straight, flipping its momentum.When it has been able to maintain a high level after flipping ...

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Cumulative New High / New Low Lagging

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Possible Earnings Contraction; Mom And Pop Roar Back; Dollar Momentum

Earnings contractionCompanies in the S&P 500 have shown 10 quarters of year-over-year growth in operating earnings, but that streak is in danger of ending. Estimates for this quarter continue to come down.If that’s going to be the case, then traders start to anticipate slower growth, and returns ...

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U.S. Dollar Shows Short-Term Momentum

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Nasdaq Escapes Bear Market As Investors Pull Out

Escaping the bearThe Nasdaq Composite has ended its bear market, at least according to two metrics. Unlike its rallies during the 2001 and 2008 bear markets, this time it has managed to exceed the 61.8% retracement of the decline. And it has rallied 20% from its low, the accepted definition of a ...

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Nasdaq Escapes Its Bear Market

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Good Overbought; Dow Leads Above 200-Day

Good overboughtAfter reaching an extreme oversold reading in December, the long-term McClellan Summation Index has cycled back to an overbought reading. What’s notable about this is just how quickly the Summation Index has cycled up to 500 after being so depressed just a month ago. The only time ...

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McClellan Summation Crosses 500

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Back To Greed; Low Exposure; Oscillator Streak

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Back to greedThe CNN Fear & Greed model has gone from extreme Fear in December to Greed now.It’s not unusual to see it swing this much, this quickly, but it is unusual when the S&P 500 still hasn’t made it above its 200-day averages. And those ...

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McClellan Oscillator Above 50 For 3 Weeks

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Narrowing Smart-Dumb Spread; 4 Straight Up Weeks

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Narrowing spreadAs stocks rally, Dumb Money has become more confident while Smart Money has increased their hedging activity. The spread between the two hit a multi-year extreme before Christmas and is now nearing zero for the first time in ...

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S&P Gains 1% Four Weeks In A Row

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A Bad Month; Wide Confidence Spread

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A bad monthThe S&P suffered 16 negative days in October, tied for 3rd worst since 1928 and the most since 1970.The pressure was enough to trigger a sell signal for a popular trend-following strategy, with a close below its 10-month average, that ...

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Unshakable Confidence; Immense Last-Hour Selling Pressure

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.UnshakableConsumer Confidence rose in October despite a bad month for stocks. The S&P dropped more than 5%, and not only did Confidence hit more than a 1-year high, it’s well over 100. Forward returns here were decent in the medium- to long-term, ...

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Massive Sell Programs; Hard, Fast Pullback, Near-Record Negative Momentum

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Everybody outDuring the past 3 weeks, we’ve seen a near-record amount of sell programs at some point during the trading day.The lowest NYSE TICK during that stretch is now the 2nd most extreme in history, with an average of more than a net 40% of ...

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A Non-Recessionary Correction; The Trend Is No Longer Your Friend

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Non-recessionary pullbackMost recession models show a low probability of an imminent economic recession. If we use a simple, non-optimized, real-time model, it’s currently showing 0% probability.In that kind of environment, 10% pullbacks in stocks ...

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Quick Change In Character; Smart Money Steps In; Emerging Stocks Rebound

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A quick change in characterThe S&P went from 52-week high to below its 200-day average in only 3 weeks. That ended a streak of more than six months above its 200-day average. Other times it underwent a quick change in character, from a 52-week high ...

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Momentum Shift As Bonds Have Big Move

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum shiftThe McClellan Summation Index is below zero for the first time in a half-year.It’s also turning negative while stocks are still relatively close to their recent highs, and that has been more of a negative shorter-term.Bonds’ biggest ...

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Options Bulls Reign As New Lows Rise Even Amid Good Price Momentum

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Calling all bullsOptions traders are showing a historic preference for speculating on the upside. In recent weeks and months, they’ve spent most of their options volume on buying speculative calls.At the same time, they don’t want to risk a large ...

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Dow Theory Buy Signal Even As Homebuilders Slip

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Dow theory buy signalBoth the Dow Industrials and Transports have reached new highs. This is the first new high in the Industrials in months, following the previous breakout from Transports. Similar buy signals according to trend-following theory ...

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An August High As Option Speculation Ramps Up

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Summer highStocks ended August at their highest monthly close in at least 36 months. A new high in August has preceded poor returns during the next 1-4 weeks as September lived up to its reputation. The S&P struggled to hold its gains, especially ...

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Stocks Shrug Off Economic Reports Amid Buying Follow Through

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Shrugging off disappointmentEconomic reports haven’t kept up with economists’ outlooks, but it hasn’t mattered as the S&P 500 has rallied to all-time highs. When stocks hit a 200-day high and economic surprises a 200-day low, future returns were ...

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Dollar Fails As S&P Momentum Stalls

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A dollar failureThe U.S. dollar ended a long streak without a new high in early August by closing at its first 52-week extreme in more than 400 sessions.Since then, it rallied more than 1%, then failed by closing below its breakout price, which has ...

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Record Positive Divergence As We Near An August High

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A near-record positive divergenceThe S&P 500’s Advance/Decline Line is more than 5% above its high from January, showing that even as the index itself has struggled to hit a new high, a majority of stocks in the index have consistently climbed ...

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High-Yield Bonds Overbought As U.S. Stocks Beat The World

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Junk bonds are anything butHigh-yield bonds have been among the best performers short- and long-term. That has led to an extreme overbought reading in the Relative Strength Index as well as a 52-week high in the iBoxx Liquid High Yield Index.That ...

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Breadth Divergences Not Much Of A Concern As Staples Recover

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Few highs as indexes rallyThe S&P 500 has rallied close to its prior highs, but there is a divergence. Relatively few stocks are registering 4-, 12-, and 52-week highs as the index rallies.It’s a concern among technicians but has not been a ...

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Risk Appetite Wanes As Small-Caps' Trend Ends And Funds See Outflows

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Lack of risk appetiteDiscretionary stocks are at a multi-month low relative to defensive Staples.That sign of risk-off behavior is unusual with the S&P near a high but has not been a good excuse to sell stocks.Another trend endedThe small-cap ...

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Momentum Worries As Emerging Stocks Start Uptrending

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum worriesAs the S&P hit a 100-day high, a very low % of stocks are showing momentum. An almost record low % of stocks are above their 10-day avg or have an RSI > 70, which has preceded weak shorter-term returns or failed rallies.Emerging ...

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Copper Drops To 200-Day Low As Value Lags And Gold Sinks

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Copper slides to 200-day lowCopper closed at its lowest level since last July, a worry for believers in “Dr. Copper.”Its record for stocks is mixed, but for copper itself, it wasn’t a good sign.No valueOverseas investors have favored Momentum over ...

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Dow's Streak Snapped As China ETF Nears Bear Market

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Had to happen sometimeThe Dow Industrials Average ended its 2-year streak of holding above its 200-day average, its 7th-longest streak in an uptrend since 1900.It wasn’t a death knell for the index, especially when the Leading Economic Indicators ...

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GE Booted From Dow As Russell And Nasdaq Hit Highs

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Somebody turn on the lightsGE got booted from the DJIA after 100 years, after a similar stretch of poor returns from Alcoa when it was removed…and before it doubled during the next year.Other stocks that got removed from the Dow did fine going ...

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Gold Bugs' Bad Day As Cap-Weighted Indexes Take Over

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Gold bugs’ ruined weekendHeading into the weekend, gold futures suffered their largest loss in over a year, to a multi-month low. When it happened it May, the selling marked an exhaustion and gold worked higher. Most times it did something similar, ...

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Breadth Momentum Picks Up As Value Lags Growth And Homebuilders Turn Up

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum is picking upMomentum in breadth figures is returning, with the McClellan Summation Index climbing. When it reaches 500 for the first time in months, it has led to an excellent risk/reward skew for stocks.The S&P 500’s annualized return ...

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Energy ETF Traders Rush In As Animal Spirit Indicator Hits A High

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF traders rush into EnergyAssets in the primary ETFs focused on the Energy sector have reached $32 billion, a new all-time high. That’s up 20% in just 30 days, among the most rapid increases since at least 2010.Similar surges led to declines for ...

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S&P Jumps Multiple Days As Volatility Halves

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.What a difference a week makesThe S&P 500 has jumped more than 1% on 3 out of the past 4 sessions. That buying thrust comes on the heels of a multi-month low during a bullish long-term trend.Future shorter-term returns were skewed positive, a stark ...

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Gaps Galore As Another Streak Ends

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Gaps galoreHeading into the peak in January, stock futures were gapping up almost every day. Now, they’ve gapped down at the open almost every day, tied for the most in history over an 8-day span.Other tight clusters of gap down opens led to ...

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Fund Managers Ignore Cash As Streaks End

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Fund managers still hate cashMutual fund managers are holding a near-record low amount of cash according to the latest figures. That was easier to justify when interest rates were nearly zero but gets harder as rates rise.Their cash deficit is now ...

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Options Traders Pour Into Calls As Breadth Lags

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Forget stock, call options have more oomphRetail traders have returned in a big way. We saw on Friday the surge in brokerage transactions, and that has bled over into the options market. The smallest of options traders put on a skyrocketing number ...

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Doubling Up Moving Average As S&P Members Get Overbought

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Doubling up the averagesThe S&P is 3% above its short-term moving average, 6% above its medium-term and 13% above its long-term.It hasn’t managed to “double up” its gains above each successive moving average in 20 years. Similar bouts of momentum ...

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Gapping Up And Nasdaq New Highs

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All-Day Trading As Shorts Flee

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.With overnight gains, why not trade all day?Most of the gains in stocks come overnight, and mom and pop traders have taken note. TD Ameritrade is trying to meet that need by rolling out 24-hour trading. That rhymes with the 1999-2000 period when ...

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Momentum's Dominant Even As Biotech Turns

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum is enjoying its turnThe highest momentum stocks have nearly doubled the gains in the S&P 500 over the past year. That’s among their best relative performance in 20 years.If we zoom out and look at the past 90 years, there were periods with ...

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Persistent Trend As Stocks Become Stretched

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The most persistent trendThe persistence of the S&P’s uptrend over the past year is among the highest in its history. Same goes for the past 3, 5, and 10 years.When we look at the 5 comparable trends, using the 200-day average as a guide was ...

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The S&P's Momentum Streak Aided By Industrials

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The S&P’s consistent, rapid rallyThe most important index in the world has rallied consistently for the past 1, 3, and 6 months. It has also picked up its gains, nearing or exceeding its upper Bollinger Band on daily, weekly, and monthly time ...

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Global Momentum Spurs Melt Up Chatter

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Global synchronized momentumMost major stock markets are not only rallying, they’re showing extreme momentum. The weekly Relative Strength Index across 6 major global indexes is now the highest in history.High readings in that indicator suggest ...

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January's Prediction Record, Soaring Materials And The "Not Too Hot" Streak

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.So goes January…or AugustA popular rule of thumb suggests that how stocks start a New Year means something for the full year. It correctly predicts the return over the next year about 60% of the time.That’s likely a statistical fluke, and other ...

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A Historic Streak As Investors Wade In

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A(nother) historic streakAfter setting so many different records last year, 2018 is on track to score even more. Among them, the major indexes haven’t been more than 5% from a 52-week high for nearly 400 days (more than 450 days if we exclude a ...

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Happy New Year As Investors Go All In

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Happy New YearThe S&P has enjoyed a record start to the year, with back-to-back gains and new highs. It has never before managed to climb more than 0.5% with 52-week highs on the first two sessions. Similar years saw pullbacks, with the short-term ...

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Dollar Doldrums Leads To Commodity Streak

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Dollar doldrumsThe dollar has only been able to rise twice in nearly three weeks, tied for its worst streak since it entered its trading range in 2015.Similar selloffs since then have led to quick rebounds, but longer-term history is mixed and not ...

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Mining Momentum And Gas Rally

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Mining momentumThe Metals & Mining industry is in the midst of a historic run. Over the past 30 days, it has enjoyed a cluster of up days seen only 4 other times since 1990.Each of the others led to short-term weakness.Gas powered rallyNatural gas ...

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No Negative Surprises As Indexes Hit Highs

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No negative surprisesEvery major Economic Surprise Index across the world is now positive. From the U.S. to China, Europe to Emerging Markets, all regions have had economic reports that have exceeded economists’ expectations.When we’ve had such ...

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Record Small Business Optimism As Investors Buy The Dip

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Near-record optimism (again)Small business owners are showing nearly the highest optimism readings in 45 years, confirming other surveys that are showing somewhere between multi-year to multi-decade extremes in optimism.High levels in the past led ...

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Strategists' 2018 Estimates; S&P's Relative Strength

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Another 7% gain for 2018Wall Street strategists are looking for a 7% gain for the S&P 500 in 2018. That’s slightly more optimistic than the Big Money poll a couple of months ago, and it’s about what they estimate every year. Actual results vary ...

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Quiet Market No More

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All Four Major Indexes At New Highs

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