Posts tagged as Price Patterns


Stocks Have Gone Absolutely Nowhere

2019-08-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Going nowhereThe most benchmarked index in the world has gone nowhere for over a year and a half. The S&P 500 was just trading at the same level it was at in ...

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Monday Color - All About Gaps

2019-08-19 | Jason Goepfert


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Market overview: combining technicals & fundamentals

2019-08-17 | Troy Bombardia


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Thursday Color - Turmoil, Double Losses, Recession Talk, Financials, Sectors

2019-08-15 | Jason Goepfert


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A Historic Sentiment Shift

2019-08-09 | Jason Goepfert


Irrational pessimismThe survey of individual investors from AAII can be noisy from week to week, with sometimes drastic changes. Even so, it’s rare to see them change as much as they did this week, with one of the largest drops in optimism in history.Sentiment became so low, during a generally ...

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S&P 500 Island Reversal

2019-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


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The Stock-Bond Relationship Is Out Of Whack

2019-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


Strained relationshipThe drop in stocks over the past week didn’t happen in isolation, as traders fled to the perceived safety of the bond market. That moved the Stock/Bond Ratio to an extreme level, even while the S&P remains in a generally positive environment.This has typically resolved in ...

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Thursday Color - Islands, Emerging Streak & Breadth, Signs Of Anxiety, Gold

2019-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


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Shocks' Strong Tendency To Recover

2019-08-07 | Jason Goepfert


Shocking^3We’ve looked at “shock days” quite a bit over the years, most recently in May. Monday’s session exceeded the one in May, with a move more than 3 deviations beyond what investors have become accustomed to over the past year.Swift, sharp declines like this almost never end up morphing ...

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Only Black Monday And 9/11 Were Worse Than This

2019-08-06 | Jason Goepfert


Cluster muckSigns of a “split” market started to trigger in mid-July and continued to accrue into the first days of August. This has been one of the tighter clusters of warning signs we’ve seen over the past 50 years.By the time some of these trigger, stocks have already declined somewhat. By ...

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Tuesday Color - Opening Volatility, New Lows, Sector Extremes, Big Outflows

2019-08-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Gaps And Warnings And Volatility, Oh My

2019-08-05 | Jason Goepfert


NOTE: This is an excerpt from Monday's premium note.SplatTraders get to start the new week staring at large losses in the futures. That follows a week that was pretty much straight down, with the S&P 500 losing ground for the past 5 sessions.We haven't faced this kind of opening pessimism since ...

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Monday Color - Gaps, Volatility Jump, Options Buying, Warning Cluster, Hong Kong

2019-08-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Bullish Options Traders, Buying Climaxes, Silver Flow, Hedgers' Bets, Breadth

2019-07-22 | Jason Goepfert


I won't be publishing a Daily Report this afternoon, so this post is being sent as a Bulletin to all users. This is similar to what is included in the premium notes published most days.Bully BullyEven after a choppy week, the smallest of options traders have sustained their belief in a continued ... [...]

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Don't Fight The Fed's Sentiment

2019-07-12 | Jason Goepfert


Don’t fight the FedThat market mantra mostly holds true, and based on the sentiment within the Fed, should be on the bulls’ side. A model from Nordea Markets based on language used during FOMC meetings shows that we currently have the most dovish (easiest money) Fed in a decade.There are some ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Dovish Fed, Sector Extremes, Round #, Value Line Lag, Twitter Bulls

2019-07-11 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on what so far is looking like a very narrow-range day.When Doves FlyAccording to a note from Nordea Markets, the Fed has become the most dovish since 2009. This is based on the language the Fed uses in statements to the public, with a "dovish" bent meaning they ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Quiet, Fed Talk, Pound, Copper, Bond Optimism

2019-07-10 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders react to the latest Fed talk.All QuietThe WSJ notes that stocks haven't been moving much lately, with the S&P 500 notching its 21st day without a 1% or larger move. This is encroaching on some of the longer streaks in its history, especially when the ... [...]

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This Is One Of Tech's Quickest Recoveries

2019-07-03 | Jason Goepfert


New highs, but...The S&P jumped to a record high along with several other indexes on Monday (and Tuesday) but fewer stocks were coming along for the ride both days. The percentage of stocks on the NYSE and within the S&P itself has shrunk from when the indexes moved toward new highs in June.That ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Tech's Recovery, Gold Loss, Sector Breadth, Semi's, Japan's Surprises

2019-07-02 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders start to drift away ahead of what is likely to be an extended holiday weekend.Tech RecoveryThe WSJ notes that the S&P 500's tech components have reached a new high for the first time in months, erasing the 10% correction from May.This is one of the ... [...]

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Why Gold Bugs Shouldn't Fear A False Breakout

2019-07-02 | Jason Goepfert


Risk-on hasn’t caught onMonday’s session was almost totally risk-on, even if the magnitude faded during the day. Most “risk-on” assets rose, which was the case on Friday, too. But over the past 200 days, risk-off sessions have dominated, reversing the trend that led up to the fall of 2018.Since ... [...]

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Monday Color - High Gap, Weekly Indicators, Sector Breadth

2019-07-01 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as buyers try to push stocks to new highs to start the month.Back To HighsWith a (temporary? permanent?) relief to trade tensions, buyers are pushing stock futures to new highs. For S&P 500 futures, this is the largest positive opening gap that is above all ... [...]

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The Everything Rally

2019-06-24 | Jason Goepfert


The everything rallyTotal return stock and bond indexes are hitting all-time highs at the same time. They cover an array of stocks and bonds, suggesting extreme breadth of buying interest, as noted by Bloomberg.When they’ve all hit records together, it has been an especially good longer-term ... [...]

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Friday Color - Massive Flows, Dollar Trend, Stock/Bond Rally, Whiplash, Sector Highs

2019-06-21 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as markets meander on a post-breakout summer Friday.Sell Stocks, Buy BondsThat seems to be the mantra among fund investors, anyway. On Thursday, SPY, HYG, and LQD all hit new highs. Yet investors pulled more than $4 billion from SPY, and added nearly $2 billion ... [...]

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350 Days To Nowhere, And Why Lagging Energy Isn't A Problem

2019-06-20 | Jason Goepfert


350 days to nowhereThe Dow Industrials Average is trying to break out for the third time. It hasn’t gone anywhere since late January 2018, which was 350 days ago. It saw minimal upside and substantial downside since then.If we go back to 1900, there have been a handful of times it went this long ... [...]

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Thursday Color - Morning Gap, Sector Breadth, Gold Breakout

2019-06-20 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders ramp up stocks prior to the open.Post-Meeting GapIn apparent reaction to yesterday's FOMC decision and statement, traders are bidding up the futures. This is quite a change from a few weeks ago when two out of every three days opened with a gap ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Everything Rallies, Bond Flow and Vol, Within 1%, Energy, France

2019-06-19 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on this waiting-for-the-Fed day.Everything RalliesTuesday provided some interesting cross-currents, allowing assets to rise that normally provide some balance to each other. It was a bad day to be short pretty much anything - stocks, bonds, the dollar, gold, ... [...]

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3rd Time's The Charm?

2019-06-19 | Jason Goepfert


Rush for the exitThe latest BofAML survey of fund managers showed one of the largest monthly declines in exposure in 20 years. That seems like it should be a contrary indicator, but has been decidedly not, with consistent declines in the months ahead and almost no rallies, which contrarians ... [...]

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Tight Range Following A Surge

2019-06-18 | Jason Goepfert


As noted by the Wall Street Journal, prior to today, the S&P 500 hadn't moved more than 0.5% for 6 straight sessions. What’s especially notable about this streak is that the calm is occurring after a storm of buying pressure. In the prior week, the S&P had enjoyed a surge of more than 5% during ... [...]

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The Most Split S&P 500 In History

2019-06-18 | Jason Goepfert


Split indexWith the recent surge in stocks, more than 20% of them in the S&P 500 hit a 52-week high. But the percentage of stocks mired in a bear market, or at least 20% off their highs, hasn’t come down by much.This leaves a split index, with a lot of stocks at either a new high, or in bear ... [...]

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Monday Color - Tiny Range, Options Traders, A Split S&P, Empire Fail

2019-06-17 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on what's likely to be several waiting-for-the-Fed days.No CommitmentThe WSJ notes that stocks have been stuck for the past week. The S&P 500 hasn't had a daily up or down move of more than 0.5% for what would be the 6th straight day, if today's meandering ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Reverval, Outflows, Overseas Surges, Copper

2019-06-12 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.ReversalsYesterday I made a brief mention of the reversal pattern over the past two days, where SPY hit its highest level in a month intraday but reversed to close in the bottom third of its range both days.For those wanting more detail, here are ... [...]

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Defensive Stocks Dominate The New High List - Does It Matter?

2019-06-12 | Jason Goepfert


A defensive new high listAcross the equity market, securities at a 52-week high have expanded. Same goes for companies within the S&P 500. And within that index, it’s been more of the defensive sectors that have seen the best participation.While that suggests a potentially worrisome risk-off ... [...]

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Tuesday Color - Gaps Up, Bond Flow, Weird Volatility, Sector Highs

2019-06-11 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on another gap-up morning.Another GapNear the depths of pessimism a couple of weeks ago, we saw that traders were extremely anxious, pushing stock futures lower almost every morning. They've reversed the tide, now futures are gapping up every day.This will be ... [...]

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Monday Color - New Highs, Material Gain, Financials, Gold, Small Traders, 5 Straight

2019-06-10 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.High-LightOne of the most notable developments of the rally to end last week was the expanding number of securities that erased their May pullbacks. Nearly 10% of issues on the NYSE reached a 52-week high on Friday, the most since January ... [...]

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Friday Color - Jobs, Econ Surprises, 4 Gains, Breadth, Energy, Gold

2019-06-07 | Jason Goepfert


Like Tuesday, I won't be publishing a Daily Report, but will instead send this as a Bulletin. This is typically what's sent out around midday as a Premium Note - it's a look at my notebook of things I'm watching throughout the day, some of which then make it into the Reports.The summary portions ... [...]

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Buyers' 1-2 Punch For Stocks

2019-06-06 | Jason Goepfert


A one-two rallyThe S&P 500 fell to a 50-day low on Monday, and the charts didn’t look good, but they hid a lot of underlying potential. Both Monday and Tuesday saw eager buying pressure under the surface, and Tuesday’s one-day jump in the S&P was the largest in nearly six months.When the index ... [...]

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Buying Thrust Off A Low

2019-06-05 | Jason Goepfert


The snapback on Tuesday was notable because of the structure: 1) Stocks hit a 50-day low, 2) in a relatively healthy market, and the rebound was 3) the largest in more than 100 days and 4) there was broad participation.More than 70% of volume flowed into advancing stocks that day. Nearly 90% was ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Tuesday's Jump, Breadth Recovery, Bitcoin, Corn

2019-06-05 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far this morning. When there's a large or notable gap I prefer to get these out early, even if today's looks to be fading as we head into the open.GappyStock futures are on track to show a relatively large positive gap up this morning as traders show some ... [...]

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From Risk-On To Risk-Off In Near-Record Time

2019-06-04 | Jason Goepfert


Risk-on to risk-off in a monthIn April, investors were showing extreme risk-on behavior, according to their eagerness to buy some markets over others. Barely a month later, that has cycled to extreme risk-off behavior.The first risk-off reading following risk-on behavior has usually led to a ... [...]

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Why This Has Been A Healthy Pullback

2019-06-03 | Jason Goepfert


From new high to downtrendBarely a month after it was sitting at an all-time high, the S&P 500 fell far enough and fast enough to close below its 200-day average.This is one of the index’s quicker turnarounds from being at a multi-year high to falling below its average. When it had spent at ... [...]

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S&P Cycles From New High To Downtrend

2019-05-31 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P 500 had spent nearly three months trading above its widely-watched 200-day moving average. It just ended that streak, and it triggered barely a month after the index was trading at a new all-time high.This is one of the index’s quicker turnarounds from being at a multi-year high to ... [...]

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Friday Color - More Gaps, Peso, Outflows, Bond Binge

2019-05-31 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on yet another big gap down day.Gap ManAnother unexpected Tweet by the president pushed stocks lower immediately on Thursday and that anxiety has carried over into this morning. Stock futures are on track to gap down by more than 1%, the latest in a long string ... [...]

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Confidence Has Flipped From Dumb To Smart

2019-05-30 | Jason Goepfert


Confidence flipFor the first time in four months, Smart Money Confidence has moved above Dumb Money Confidence.Usually by the time the spread between them has flipped after several months, stocks were seeing the last bits of selling pressure.With one major exception, these were mostly good ... [...]

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Copper And Margin Debt Not What They Seem

2019-05-29 | Jason Goepfert


Copper bowled overCopper prices have dropped nearly 10% from their peak, which is unnerving those investors who trust it as a leading indicator for global demand.As a predictor for future stock returns, declines like this have been mixed, with usually positive returns. For copper itself, it ... [...]

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Confidence, Staples, May Loss, Options Fear

2019-05-29 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on another morning with a largish negative gap open.GapStocks are showing another large negative gap this morning, adding to what has been a near-record cluster of anxious openings. Forgetting the fact that this comes on the heels of that cluster, we can see ... [...]

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5 Weeks Of Losses - What's Next?

2019-05-28 | Jason Goepfert


Dow dingedThe Dow Industrials have lost ground for five straight weeks, its 2nd-worst stretch since the financial crisis and among its worst since 1900.It’s relatively unusual to see such a string of losses while relatively close to a 52-week high, and over the past 40 years that has led to ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color - Dow's 5th Loss, Energy Breadth, Utes, Social Negatives

2019-05-24 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest approaching a long holiday weekend and buyers seemingly anxious to hold.LosingIf the Dow continues to slide and closes out its 5th-straight week with a loss, it will be the first time in 40 years it's lost so consistently while still hovering within 5% of its ... [...]

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Investors Are Leaving Early

2019-05-24 | Jason Goepfert


Leaving earlyWhen stocks fell more than 10% into mid-December last year, it was easy to forgive individual investors who turned negative. This week, they were almost as negative as they were then, despite the S&P being less than 2.5% off its high.Other times of premature negativity typically ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - Panic, Few Bulls, Asian Slide

2019-05-23 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this increasingly ugly-looking day.More GapsThe anxiety surrounding trade worries is the reason most commonly given to traders' overnight anxiety. Whatever the reason, there is no question that they don't want to hang around for the opening of regular ... [...]

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5 Signs Of Anxiety

2019-05-21 | Jason Goepfert


Anxiety signalWhile stocks have struggled, bonds and the dollar have both been rising. Whether one is helping the other is beside the point – primarily it suggests nervousness on the part of investors.When those two markets have behaved like this over the past 40+ years, stocks have usually ... [...]

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Pre-Market Selling Panic

2019-05-20 | Jason Goepfert


Pre-market futures have been persistently negative over the past two weeks. On an absolutely level, it is nearing the worst of the financial crisis.On a relative level - compared to other pre-market moves over the past year - it has eclipsed most readings since the inception of the futures in ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color - Gaps Again, Sector Divvies, Flight To Safety

2019-05-20 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on yet another weak day so far.More PanicYet another gap down open this morning, as the weeks-long pattern of pre-market panic continues. We've already looked at this a few times, but there's perhaps a better way to consider this.The gaps we've been seeing at ... [...]

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Are You Panicking Like Everyone Else?

2019-05-20 | Jason Goepfert


Panic-level sellingWe’ve already touched on the persistent negative gaps traders have faced most mornings over the last couple of weeks. It’s worth noting again, because the gaps are now on par with panic-level conditions over the past 35 years.Other than 2008, future returns were excellent. ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - Gap Fills, Bull Drops, Social Pessimists

2019-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on this gap-fill day.ClosureBuyers stepped in big-time and have pushed stocks above where they were before the large gap down on Monday. This is a quick turnaround - it usually takes longer for SPY to close a downside gap that large.When it does so quickly, ... [...]

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Traders Are Panicking The Most Since The Financial Crisis

2019-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


More momentum miscuesSigns of waning momentum are everywhere. One of the more impressive signs of intense underlying buying was in the Dow Industrials, where the McClellan Summation Index held above 1,000 for nearly three months, until now.Other times that extreme momentum finally ended over the ... [...]

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Stocks Just Did Something They Haven't Done All Year

2019-05-14 | Jason Goepfert


Shock dayOver the past year, investors have grown accustomed to certain magnitudes of market movements, and Monday’s session was far outside the norm. More than 2.5 standard deviations from the norm, which could be considered a shocking day.When coming within a couple weeks of a multi-year high, ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color - More Gaps, Breadth (Down) Thrusts, Overseas Drops

2019-05-14 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today. It's not midday, but I prefer to get these out early if there are large gaps.ReliefStocks are on track to rebound strongly following Monday's bad loss. The futures are looking to gap up at least 0.5%, following a day when they gapped down more than ... [...]

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Monday Gap

2019-05-13 | Jason Goepfert


Markets are on edge after several bouts of political gamesmanship leading into the new week.The latest round, with China retaliating in the trade escalation, has furthered pressured U.S. equities.Most markets aren't open yet, but we can see the largest movers here.I'm not sure how much to read ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color - Pre-Market Fear, Failures, Overseas Extremes, Momentum Drops

2019-05-10 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this edgy Friday.Pre-Market FearThe uncertainty surrounding the trade posturing has triggered quite a bit of nervousness ahead of regular trading hours. By 8:30am EST, futures have shown relatively large losses each of the past six days. During the ... [...]

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What Happens When Hard Data Hardens

2019-05-10 | Jason Goepfert


Post-recovery pullbackStocks recovered from a morning drop, but the S&P still lost more than 3.5% from its recent peak on an intraday basis. That’s largest drop so far during the recovery from the December low, more than 90 trading sessions.This ends one of the longest-ever streaks since 1928 ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color - First Pullback, Weak Sectors, Returning Investors

2019-05-09 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this whippy day.Finally, A 3%-erThe S&P 500 is on track to pull back by more than 3% from the highest point it rallied to since the December bottom. That's the first time it's pulled back by this "large" of an amount. That streak of more than 90 days ... [...]

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Dow Drops Below 50-Day Average

2019-05-08 | Jason Goepfert


Tuesday’s big decline was enough to knock a few indexes down a peg, but because of the strong trend, most of them are showing little to no technical damage. Among the “big four” U.S. indexes, only the Dow Industrials has really wobbled. For the first time in months, the Dow closed below its ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color - Vol Surge, Dow Drops, Sector Extremes

2019-05-08 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this meandering day.Vol SurgeThere are no shortage of measures which capture the big move on Tuesday. Perhaps because of the headline-driven nature of the decline, historical comparisons are less appropriate, but that seems to be the case ever time. ... [...]

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Options Traders Just Did Something They've Never Done Before

2019-05-07 | Jason Goepfert


Call selling hits record lowThe smallest of options traders have spent the past 5 weeks buying to open speculative call options at one of the highest rates since the financial crisis. And they’ve given up trying to collect premium by selling call options, which would limit their upside. That ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color - Gapped, Slapped, And Beaned

2019-05-06 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this trying-to-recover day.GappyStocks suffered a rough open, which is not something we often see after being at or very near a 52-week high at the close of the previous session. Using the S&P 500 futures over the past 33 years, it has happened only ... [...]

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4 Energetic Extremes

2019-05-06 | Jason Goepfert


Energy extremesThe selling pressure earlier this week in the energy sector triggered several shorter-term extremes in breadth. Most of those stocks fell to their lowest in a month, below their volatility bands. Few held above their short-term moving averages.When the sector had rebounded more ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color - Momentum Market, Energy Washout, Russell Breakout

2019-05-03 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest on yet another positive Friday. This marks the S&P's 14th rally out of 16 Fridays since the beginning of the year.Momentum MarketHere's a question I got the other day, reflecting some version that's been asked several times essentially asking the same thing:So ... [...]

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Breadth Breathes As A Bearish Candle Engulfs Oil

2019-04-29 | Jason Goepfert


Breadth takes a breatherIn January, breadth momentum was so impressive that the McClellan Oscillator held above 50 for over a month. Since then, it hasn’t climbed above that level even as stocks made great gains.This is a divergence that has triggered near several important market peaks, but the ... [...]

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A Most Excellent Recovery

2019-04-24 | Jason Goepfert


An excellent recoveryThe S&P 500’s new high marks an end to the correction, one of the S&P’s most impressive recoveries from a major decline from a prior all-time high. Other times it made a somewhat similarly-sized recovery over a quick- to moderate time frame, it tended to keep going, but it ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color - S&P Recovery, Pound Probabilities, Mixed Breadth

2019-04-23 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on a curiously strong day.RecoveryIn spite of overwhelmingly optimistic sentiment in some models, buyers continue to persist. For months, the most positive thing about stocks was the price activity (and breadth from December through February), and that ... [...]

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4 Reasons Why Health Care Could Rebound

2019-04-20 | Jason Goepfert


Health care’s bad weekHealth care stocks have gotten hit, and it’s erased their year-to-date gain, while the S&P 500 has held up. The divergence between the two this far into a year is unusual.Other times health care underperformed by more than 5% through this many sessions into a year, it led ... [...]

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Investors Cycle Into Cyclicals, Tech

2019-04-18 | Jason Goepfert


Cyclical reboundCyclical stocks got hit hard late last year, especially relative to defensive stocks. They’ve made an impressive rebound. The rate of change on the ratio of cyclical to defensive stocks has cycled from an extreme low to an extreme high.Over the past 20 years, a cycle like this ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color - Tech Breakout & Breadth, Screens

2019-04-17 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on yet another potential reversal day.BreakoutEven if the rally in tech fades, on an intraday basis the Nasdaq 100 has bested its prior multi-year high by at least 0.5%. The most bullish aspects about this market aren't fundamental, and they're certainly ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color

2019-04-12 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.GapDumb Money Confidence is holding above an extreme of 80%, and buyers were enthusiastic enough to push a pre-market gap more than 0.5% above the prior close. That's only happened five times before, all of which pulled back during the next week.If ... [...]

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Tech's Perfect Signal

2019-04-10 | Jason Goepfert


Tech’s fully recoveryOut of the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors, only one has made a fully recovery from the December decline, and it’s an important one. The information technology group has fully recovered from its decline of more than 24%.Other times it fully recovered a drop of 20% or more within ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color

2019-04-05 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Nice RunBulls have been pushing things, with a long streak of up days and new 100-day highs. For the past 7 sessions, the S&P 500 fund, SPY, has gapped up at the open. We haven't seen that kind of pre-market enthusiasm since January 2018.It's ... [...]

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Wednesday Midday Color

2019-04-03 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Gap And Go?The gap up this morning faded a bit right before the open, but SPY still managed to add nearly half a percent before regular trading opened. This comes on the heels of a 100-day high during a major uptrend. That's triggered a few times ... [...]

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Surge In S&P For The Quarter, Off A Low, And With Bonds

2019-04-02 | Jason Goepfert


We've looked at several studies related to the surge in prices over the past couple of reports, so this is just a summary that we can track in the Active Studies. All of them have been shown in a report already - we're just putting them here for tracking purposes.Instead of posting them as ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-04-01 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.Gap And Go?The S&P is trying to put in a runaway gap to start the month. It has mostly struggled, with the only true successes being in February '98 and '12. The others settled back as the months progressed.Good TrendJust because it's going to be ... [...]

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Stocks, Bonds Rise As Volatility Diverges

2019-03-29 | Jason Goepfert


A balanced investor’s dreamThe S&P 500’s total return over the past three months is well over 10%. The total return in an aggregate bond index is up over 3% at the same time, a large move for that market.When both markets enjoyed such large total returns over a multi-month period, it tended to ... [...]

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Close 1-Year Analogs, As Confidence Peaks

2019-03-27 | Jason Goepfert


A year like ‘90Hand-picked price overlays can show some scary comparisons to the past year, like 1937. But the one-year period with the highest correlation since 1928 was 1990, which led to tremendous gains.Of the 17 one-year periods with the highest correlation to the past year, the next few ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this recovery day.Waning ConfidenceToday's release of the Conference Board's latest readings on consumer confidence revealed that attitudes about present conditions are at the lowest point in nearly a year. This is coming on the heels of what had been ... [...]

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Russell's Failed Rally With A Yield Curve Warning

2019-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


Bear patternThe Russell 2000 rallied for almost two weeks, then failed on Friday and set a lower low. That triggered a classic failed bear market rally attempt.Historically, that hasn’t meant much in the shorter-term, but over the medium- to long-term, risk tended to be higher than reward. These ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-03-25 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today. Confident TradersThe weekly summary of options trading across all U.S. exchanges shows that the smallest of traders are still buying calls to open at a pretty aggressive clip. They spent 39% of their total volume on purchasing speculative call ... [...]

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-03-21 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.FOMC ReversalStocks are trying to fully reverse any weakness from earlier this week. If SPY closes at a new high for this move, it would be the first time traders pushed it to at least a 100-day high the day following a FOMC meeting since 2014. ... [...]

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Dollar Fails And Transports Keep Lagging

2019-03-21 | Jason Goepfert


Dollar failureThe U.S. dollar hit a new high in early March, and optimism was high. That proved to be a headwind again, and the buck has since reversed to close at a 30-day low.This is an unusually quick reversal and quick reversals in the dollar like this have been a negative sign. During the ... [...]

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Transports / S&P Ratio Hits New Low

2019-03-20 | Jason Goepfert


Thanks in large part to poor performance from Fed-Ex, the Dow Transports are really struggling, especially on a relative basis.The ratio between the Transports and the S&P 500 just hit a multi-year low, which isn’t something we see too often when the S&P itself is trading at a nearly six-month ... [...]

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No Pessimism Even As Small-Caps Struggle

2019-03-20 | Jason Goepfert


No pessimismOn Monday, the last of our core indicators that was showing a hint of pessimism dropped off. At the same time, 40% of them were showing optimism. The last two times that happened, the S&P formed a kind of rounded peak.Since 1999, many of the positive returns were clustered in 2017, a ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-03-18 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this rally-fading day.ExpirationI think we've been looking at this tendency for more than 15 years now, and surely others were before that. After one of the quadruple witching days, especially in March, stocks have struggled for the next week. Not sure ... [...]

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Hedgers Are Hedging As Transports Lag Amid Momentum Ebb

2019-03-07 | Jason Goepfert


Hedgers actually hedgingHedgers in the major index futures pared their positions by more than $10 billion at the end of February. That’s one of their larger one-week increases in hedging activity.When they’ve made such big changes in the past, it has been a bit of a negative for stocks.Dow ... [...]

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-03-05 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on this mixed day.China ShinesChinese stocks continue their march upward, which bodes well for the longer-term. We saw in previous reports how a 20% rise from a low in the Shanghai Composite had led to more long-term gains when buyers continued to press ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color

2019-03-04 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.ReversalPretty nasty-looking outside reversal in indexes and funds like SPY today. But...be careful. These have a terrible habit of not working like chartists insist they should. Following is every time SPY gapped up above the highest close in the ... [...]

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Friday Midday Color

2019-03-01 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far today.MomentumThe level of breadth momentum across markets, index, and sectors is staggering. It has been so forceful and sustained that the McClellan Summation Indexes for several sectors are nearing multi-decade or all-time extremes. While often a good ... [...]

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An Industrial-Led Rally As Shanghai Surprises

2019-02-27 | Jason Goepfert


The rally’s workhorsesThe Industrials sector has led all major S&P 500 groups since the December 24 low, while defensive ones like Utilities have lagged.Going back to 1928 and looking at all two-month, 10% rallies from a low, we see that the rallies with the highest sector correlation to our ... [...]

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Sector Correlations During The Rally

2019-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


Since the December 24 bottom, the Industials sector has led the 11 major S&P 500 groupings with a gain of more than 25%.If we got back to 1928 and look at every time the S&P 500 rallied at least 10% for two months following a 52-week low, we can look at what sectors led/lagged and see how they ... [...]

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Nasdaq Hugs Its Average As Volatility Recede Despite Recession Risk

2019-02-25 | Jason Goepfert


A tight hugThe Nasdaq Composite has hugged its 200-day average for more than a week.Bulls and bears could both make an argument for what that might mean, but since 1971 the Nasdaq has powered higher in the longer-term when it showed this kind of indecision around the widely-watched metric, ... [...]

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A Remarkable Run, As Bulls Return And Dow Stocks Are Above Average

2019-02-21 | Jason Goepfert


A remarkable runBoth the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 have enjoyed a near-historic run from their Christmas Eve lows. The magnitude of their gains, interrupted by only a few large daily losses, have been matched only a few times.The sample sizes are tiny, but the implications are mostly positive, ... [...]

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Tightest 100-Day Correlations Amid A 20-Year Best Earnings Season

2019-02-20 | Jason Goepfert


Just like usThere have been nearly 20 different 100-day time windows that have a high correlation to the past 100 sessions in the S&P 500. Most of them ended up peaking right about this time and saw pullbacks over the medium-term.These analogs have been suggesting for a while that stocks ... [...]

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Highest-Correlated 100-Day Windows

2019-02-19 | Jason Goepfert


There was an interview with Tom DeMark on Bloomberg the other day, where he noted the S&P 500's tight correlation with the decline and rebound in 1973. Analogs are always an iffy proposition, but they tend to generate a lot of interest, and we've been asked several times if the past 100 days ... [...]

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Crossing A Flat 200-Day Average As Optimism Follows The Thrust

2019-02-14 | Jason Goepfert


Jumping over a flat averageThe S&P 500 finally closed above its 200-day average after a couple of months below. Because the decline was not that severe or long-lasting, the average was flat.When the S&P has ended a streak below its 200-day average and that average was flat, its returns were ... [...]

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Failing At The 200-Day After Mirror Image V-Shaped Rebound

2019-02-08 | Jason Goepfert


FailedAfter two months below its 200-day average, the S&P approached it this week but then took a step back on Thursday, closing more than 1% below.Other times it approached its 200-day after at least a month below, and then showed signs of failure, it tended to close above its average soon, but ... [...]

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Nasdaq Escapes Bear Market As Investors Pull Out

2019-02-06 | Jason Goepfert


Escaping the bearThe Nasdaq Composite has ended its bear market, at least according to two metrics. Unlike its rallies during the 2001 and 2008 bear markets, this time it has managed to exceed the 61.8% retracement of the decline. And it has rallied 20% from its low, the accepted definition of a ... [...]

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Nasdaq Escapes Its Bear Market

2019-02-05 | Jason Goepfert


After falling into bear market territory, the Nasdaq Composite has ended it, at least according to two subjective metrics. The tech-heavy index has rallied 20% (rounded) from its low, and it has exceeded the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline, which it was not able to do in 2001 or 2008. [...]

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Good Overbought; Dow Leads Above 200-Day

2019-02-01 | Jason Goepfert


Good overboughtAfter reaching an extreme oversold reading in December, the long-term McClellan Summation Index has cycled back to an overbought reading. What’s notable about this is just how quickly the Summation Index has cycled up to 500 after being so depressed just a month ago. The only time ... [...]

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Nonfarm Payroll Beat

2019-02-01 | Jason Goepfert


The Nonfarm Payroll Report (NFP) is widely believed to be the most important economic report in the U.S., or at least the one with the most sway over markets.This morning's release showed a huge positive surprise, "positive" being many more jobs added than expected. There was a big revision down ... [...]

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S&P Ends January Below 200-Day Average

2019-01-31 | Jason Goepfert


There are a lot of positives happening right now, especially related to the thrust in market breadth. One factor definitely not in favor, though, is the combination of shorter-term seasonality and longer-term trend.When the S&P 500 has ended the month of January below its 200-day average, the ... [...]

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Emerging Markets Rise Above 200-Day Average

2019-01-30 | Jason Goepfert


For the first time in almost nine months, the MSCI Emerging Markets index has managed to close above its 200-day moving average. While this is a mixed event for most indexes and sectors, for emerging markets it has been a good sign, at least in the short- to medium-term.Over the next month, the ... [...]

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Last-Hour Binge Buying; Shutdown Ends; Consumers' Flagging Expectations

2019-01-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Happy endingOver the past month, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 0.3% on average during the last hour of trading, one of its largest-ever clusters of gains.Not only has it been aggressive, it has been consistent. As noted by the fine folks at ... [...]

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Holding The Trend; Retail Investors Are Still Active

2019-01-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Holding the trendAs noted by Investor’s Business Daily, the S&P 500 has managed to climb back above its widely-watched 50-day moving average and hold above it for a week straight. This ends a streak of more than 70 days without being able to do so, ... [...]

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S&P 500 Above 50-Day For A Week

2019-01-28 | Jason Goepfert


Stocks have been trying to change their medium-term trend and doing well so far. Investor's Business Daily noted that the S&P 500 has been able to hover above its 50-day average for a full week, the first time in months it's been able to do so. But it's still trading below its 200-day ... [...]

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Highly Correlated Markets; Non-Recessionary Bear Markets

2019-01-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Highly correlatedOver the past 50 days, markets have been closely following each other. The moves in the S&P 500 have been tight with commodities, yields, and overseas stocks.This has usually happened during times of stress, and long-term returns ... [...]

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Narrowing Smart-Dumb Spread; 4 Straight Up Weeks

2019-01-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Narrowing spreadAs stocks rally, Dumb Money has become more confident while Smart Money has increased their hedging activity. The spread between the two hit a multi-year extreme before Christmas and is now nearing zero for the first time in ... [...]

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S&P Gains 1% Four Weeks In A Row

2019-01-22 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P 500 has managed to gain more than 1% four weeks in a row following its drop to a 52-week low. It has also gained more than 1.5% four weeks in a row, regardless of whether if following a low. Both have led to consistently higher prices, especially in the longer-term. [...]

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S&P Gaps Following Multiple Up Days In Downtrend

2019-01-21 | Jason Goepfert


S&P 500 futures (and the SPY fund) gapped & closed higher on Friday after already having multiple up days, while being below the 200-day average.For both vehicles, it led to a very low win rate over the short-term. [...]

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S&P Nears 50% Retracement; Financial Sector's Big Buying Cluster

2019-01-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Fibonacci hurdlesThe S&P 500 has erased nearly 50% of its October – December decline.Following a loss of more than 15%, this retracement in only 16 sessions is the 3rd-fastest ever. On average, it took a median of 39 trading days to get to the 50% ... [...]

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ETF Traders Not Buying The Rally; Nasdaq Is First "Big Four" Above Average

2019-01-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Not buying itIn the three weeks following the December low, leveraged ETF traders have abandoned long funds while flowing into inverse (short) funds, suggesting they’re betting against the rally. When we look at the largest leveraged index ETFs ... [...]

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Sentiment Cycle; Ending The Correction

2019-01-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Sentiment cycleDecades ago, Justin Mamis outlined an ideal Sentiment Cycle from greed to fear and back again. Quite a few cycles since then have adhered closely to the ideal.According to a Twitter poll by the well-respected Helene Meisler, most ... [...]

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Best-Ever Retracement; VIX Is Awfully Low

2019-01-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Best-ever retracementTwo weeks into a recovery from a major decline, the S&P 500 has made back more than 40% of its losses. If we go back to 1928 and look at every time the S&P declined more than 15% from a multi-year high within a year’s time, ... [...]

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Newsletters Throw In The Towel; Record Reversals

2019-01-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Throwing in the towelOver the past decade, it has taken some severe moves in stocks, in a very short amount of time, to shake optimism among newsletter writers. That’s what happened now, with a near-record drop in sentiment. For the first time in ... [...]

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Starting The Year Off Wrong

2019-01-02 | Jason Goepfert


As traders return from what for most was a week away, equity futures are getting hit hard. If they stay around here, it will be the worst open following a holiday since 2016. There have been 4 others with at least a 1% opening loss since the 2009 bottom.There hasn't been a very good record at ... [...]

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Swift, Severe Decline; Up Volume Thrust; Low TRIN

2018-12-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stocks just suffered one of the largest, swiftest pullbacks in 70 yearsThe S&P suffered a 17% loss in less than four months.That’s unnerving but is not the kind of decline that happens before or during economic recessions. They are mostly ... [...]

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A Pre-Holiday Review

2018-12-24 | Jason Goepfert


The release of some of the weekly data we follow has confirmed just how extreme last week’s activity moved sentiment. I will be travelling for the holiday, so no end-of-day report will be published.One of the most reliable gauges we have is showing an extreme like we’ve rarely seen. When we ... [...]

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Another Volatile Session

2018-12-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Another volatile sessionSome early optimism on Thursday was quickly erased, and stocks dove to new lows for this move. In the process, it triggered several extremes:* The Nasdaq is on the threshold of a 20% decline.* The percentage of securities ... [...]

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New Low Spike; Heavy Selling Cluster

2018-12-20 | Jason Goepfert


As we head into the close on yet another dreadful day for stocks, along with almost everything else, there are a few things that are worth noting.Most importantly, there is clear evidence of wholesale selling on a level we rarely see. Since 1984, as far back as we can go, there have been only 8 ... [...]

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Equity Risk Premium Collapses; A Day Of Notable Moves; VIX Not Jumping

2018-12-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Equity premium collapsesThe premium that investors are willing to pay for stocks’ earnings has collapsed relative to the yield available on bonds. The one-year z-score of the Equity Risk Premium is now 4 standard deviations below average, a ... [...]

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Long-Term Bears; Russell 2000 Bear Market; S&P Drops On Friday/Monday; Spike In 52-Week Lows

2018-12-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Long-term bearsBuilding on what we looked at last week, we take a longer-term, multi-year look at prior bear markets, including their median loss and standard deviations. We also look at returns following major peaks in Consumer Confidence.The ... [...]

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Investors Flee Equities; Highly-Correlated Declines; December Selling

2018-12-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Leaving en masseInvestors yanked $46 billion from equity funds this week. Even accounting for the usually mid-December outflow, as a percentage of total fund assets, this is the largest outflow in at least 15 years.After the other weeks when there ... [...]

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Bear Market Roadmap; Pessimistic CFOs

2018-12-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bear market roadmapThere have been 20 bear markets in U.S. stocks since 1950. If we look at their average price path during the next year, the S&P’s performance since September shows a high correlation to 10 of them.After those 10 bear markets were ... [...]

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Energy Stocks Worst Breadth In 4 Years; Traders Keep Selling The Open

2018-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.At least Financials are worseBreadth in the S&P 500 Energy Sector is the worst in four years. Few of the stocks are above even their shortest-term moving averages, and there has been a spike in the percentage of stocks at a 52-week low.This has, in ... [...]

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New Lows In Financials; Buy-The-Rally Is Dead, Too

2018-12-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Financial troublesMore than half of the stocks in the S&P 500 Financials sector have declined to a 52-week low, the most in more than two years.After investors have sold so many in a single sector to this low of a level, it has tended to bounce. ... [...]

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Buy The Dip Is Dead; December Reversal; Smart Money Is Covering

2018-12-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Buy-the-dip is deadOver the past six months, there has been a dramatic decrease in the probability that buyers will step in after weakness. After reaching a 20-year high earlier this year, the probably that investors will buy the drip has dropped ... [...]

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Follow-On Selling

2018-12-06 | Jason Goepfert


More concerns about the efficacy of trade talks are the consensus excuse for why futures are showing a large loss this morning. Whatever the actual reason(s), we're seeing a rare one-two punch.The last times the S&P 500 cash index lost at least 3% then the futures market gapped down more than 1% ... [...]

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Largest Gap Since '11; Presidential Services

2018-12-03 | Jason Goepfert


Most of the time, participants have no idea why markets move. Reasons are given during and after the fact, but they're just guesses that sound good, really.A handful of times each year, though, the reasons are clear. Based on the way markets have been trading in recent weeks and the reaction ... [...]

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Thanksgiving Selling; Heavy Pessimism; Monday Gaps

2018-11-26 | Jason Goepfert


There certainly wasn't much of the typical pre-holiday buoyancy in markets last week. Bucking the traditionally positive, low-volatility holiday trading, markets got hit hard, particularly the stock market.That left the S&P 500 at a 6-month low the day after Thanksgiving, which has never ... [...]

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A Weak Retracement; A Dollar Milestone

2018-11-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A weak retracementAt its high point of the bounce during the past two weeks, the S&P never managed to retrace more than 61.8% of its pullback from the September peak.It has now started to fail and fall back to the lower end of its range. While ... [...]

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Bear Market In Stocks; Small-Cap Stumbles

2018-11-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A bear market in stocksWhile the major indexes are far from a 20% decline, many S&P 500 components have declined more. At the depths of the decline in October, more than 40% of the S&P reached bear market territory.That often served as a low point ... [...]

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Post-Election Jump; No More Oversold Tailwind

2018-11-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Election excitementFollowing the midterm election, the S&P 500 jumped more than 1%, and sector performance showed a strong risk-on bias.It was the best post-election day rally for the S&P 500 since 1982, which is the only one (midterm or ... [...]

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Post-Election Gap

2018-11-07 | Jason Goepfert


Stock index futures are rallying after what turned out to be an expected election outcome - an unpopular president led to a loss of seats and a mixed Congress.According to BofAML, that has preceded an annual return in the S&P 500 of 12%, so there's that.On a much shorter time frame, this is one ... [...]

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Rallying In A Downtrend; Peak Earnings

2018-11-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Rallying in a downtrendStocks are revisiting the 200-day average, which is now sloping down.If we go back and look for times when the 200-day average was rising for at least three months, then turned lower and the S&P was below its average for at ... [...]

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Gridlock For A Disliked President

2018-11-06 | Jason Goepfert


Most of the hand-wringing over today's U.S. midterm elections is just noise. Even the best pollsters have only a shaky grasp on potential results, and even then, trying to guess what that means for markets is foolhardy. The reaction following the 2016 election is the exception proving that ... [...]

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Insiders Buy; A Selling Climax; Small Traders Panic

2018-11-03 | Jason Goepfert


The weekly indicators that just came out show some interesting extremes.Corporate insiders picked up their buying interest, now that an increasing number of companies are outside of their restriction window during earnings season. This isn't my favorite indicator, especially when it shows ... [...]

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No Capitulation; No Breadth Thrust

2018-11-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No capitulationThe VIX “fear gauge” never really spiked during the October pullback, suggesting no capitulation from investors.That’s not really true, and it doesn’t matter for forward returns. History is riddled with bottoms that weren’t ... [...]

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A Bad Month; Wide Confidence Spread

2018-11-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A bad monthThe S&P suffered 16 negative days in October, tied for 3rd worst since 1928 and the most since 1970.The pressure was enough to trigger a sell signal for a popular trend-following strategy, with a close below its 10-month average, that ... [...]

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Unshakable Confidence; Immense Last-Hour Selling Pressure

2018-10-31 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.UnshakableConsumer Confidence rose in October despite a bad month for stocks. The S&P dropped more than 5%, and not only did Confidence hit more than a 1-year high, it’s well over 100. Forward returns here were decent in the medium- to long-term, ... [...]

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Massive Sell Programs; Hard, Fast Pullback, Near-Record Negative Momentum

2018-10-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Everybody outDuring the past 3 weeks, we’ve seen a near-record amount of sell programs at some point during the trading day.The lowest NYSE TICK during that stretch is now the 2nd most extreme in history, with an average of more than a net 40% of ... [...]

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A Non-Recessionary Correction; The Trend Is No Longer Your Friend

2018-10-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Non-recessionary pullbackMost recession models show a low probability of an imminent economic recession. If we use a simple, non-optimized, real-time model, it’s currently showing 0% probability.In that kind of environment, 10% pullbacks in stocks ... [...]

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A Volatile Two Weeks; S&P's Double-Dip Pullback

2018-10-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Swing timeStocks have swung by +/- 1.5 standard deviations most of the past 12 sessions. At least 3 of them were to the upside and 3 to the downside.There is a market cliché stating that bull markets become more volatile as they peak and head into ... [...]

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Markets (Usually) Don't Bottom On Friday

2018-10-26 | Jason Goepfert


For the second time in only a few days, traders are looking at another large gap down to start the day, with S&P 500 futures indicated down by more than 1%.It's easy to forget, but we've seen this kind of large losses at multi-month lows five other times since the bottom in 2009. Other that ... [...]

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Stocks, Sectors In Correction; Nasdaq's Bad Day; S&P Negative YTD; Spike In Pessimism

2018-10-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stocks in correctionThe S&P still hasn’t suffered a correction, if we define it by a 10% decline from a 52-week high. With the severe loss on Wednesday, it has just barely missed the cut. Most of its stocks haven’t been so fortunate, however. With ... [...]

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Major Reversal; Jump In New Lows; Dumb Money Purge

2018-10-24 | Jason Goepfert


After the big reversal on Tuesday, futures were indicated to gap lower again on Wednesday. In the history of the S&P 500 futures, that had led to rebounds over the next several sessions every time.As it stands now, futures have recovered, which dampens the short-term outlook quite a bit. ... [...]

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Gap To New Low

2018-10-23 | Jason Goepfert


I mentioned yesterday that I may be out of the office today to join a last-ditch call for the search for Jayme Closs. Having a daughter the same age and growing up in the same area, it hits close to home.Markets aren't making that easy, with futures indicated to gap down to new lows. For the S&P ... [...]

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China Loses 30%, Suffers Bad Day At A Low, World Stocks' Failed Bounce

2018-10-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.China losses exceed 30%The Shanghai Composite is now down 30% from its recent high.That worries some U.S. investors concerned about contagion, but losses this large didn’t usually bleed over.Bad days and new lowsThe Shanghai Composite’s drop of ... [...]

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Correcting Oversold; Quick Change In Character; Every Dow Stock Rises

2018-10-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Correcting oversoldThe McClellan Oscillator has gone from extremely oversold to neutral. It was below -90 just a few days ago and is now up to -10.Such a rapid change in character has been a good sign during uptrends, and that context was important ... [...]

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V-Shaped Bounces And Explosion In Hedging

2018-10-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.V-shaped probabilityFollowing declines like the past month, v-shaped bounces were common. Almost 40% of the precedents formed a bottom within a couple of sessions. While some short-term volatility was normal, all but a few of the precedents ended ... [...]

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Quick Change In Character; Smart Money Steps In; Emerging Stocks Rebound

2018-10-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A quick change in characterThe S&P went from 52-week high to below its 200-day average in only 3 weeks. That ended a streak of more than six months above its 200-day average. Other times it underwent a quick change in character, from a 52-week high ... [...]

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Hedging Explodes; Average Days Before Bottoming

2018-10-15 | Jason Goepfert


The most difficult part of any decline is determining if the decline was enough to satisfy what had been negative conditions prior to the losses, and whether the probabilities favor a v-shaped bounce or a more sustained testing phase.There were plenty of extremes generated last week, made even ... [...]

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Index Corrections As Panic Spreads

2018-10-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.CorrectionsAfter ending long streaks in uptrends, the Russell and Nasdaq fell into corrections. That has typically led to a poor risk/reward in the months ahead for both.PanicThe selling pressure on Thursday generated at least a couple readings of ... [...]

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Crap And Gap

2018-10-12 | Jason Goepfert


Whenever there is volatility like that past two days, it's easy to pick and choose from a number of different extremes. There are so many that one can find something, anything, to support their view of either a bounce or more selling pressure.The majority of what we looked at was inconclusive. ... [...]

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Streaks End As Concern Rises

2018-10-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Streaks end as concern risesMajor indexes ended some notable streaks, which were nearing record lengths. The S&P 500 ended months without a 1% move by tripling that to the downside. The Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Composite both ended long periods ... [...]

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A Little Panicky

2018-10-11 | Jason Goepfert


With a failed bounce attempt intraday, we're starting to register a few more signs of notable pessimism or even outright panic. It's understandable, since this would be one of the few times in modern markets when the S&P 500 suffered back-to-back 2% losses during a generally uptrending market.As ... [...]

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Follow-Through Selling

2018-10-11 | Jason Goepfert


With futures indicated to open lower following yesterday's pummeling, let's take a look at behavior following similar sell-offs that bled over to the next morning.Pre-market trading has the reputation of being emotional, with large gaps being driven by knee-jerk reactions to hyperbolic media ... [...]

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Just A Whiff Of Panic As Streaks End

2018-10-10 | Jason Goepfert


As stocks continue to follow though on the negative conditions that had been building for the past few weeks, we're starting to see the very beginning signs of pessimism, or even outright panic.Volume in inverse ETFs is on track to exceed 1.2% of total NYSE volume, which (if it holds into the ... [...]

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NDX Breaks 50-Day, Breadth Momentum Rolls Over

2018-10-05 | Jason Goepfert


On a quick administrative note, we've now added priority email support for all Premium members (which you are if you're receiving this). Instead of emailing admin, send requests to premium "at" sentimentrader "dot" com and it will automatically go to the top of our priority list.Market-wise, ... [...]

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Intraday FOMC Pattern

2018-09-26 | Jason Goepfert


As investors await the Federal Reserve's latest well-telegraphed announcement on interest rate policy, futures are drifting higher like they almost always do on these days.For those curious, following is the S&P's intraday performance on the last 15 rate decision days. We can see a clear drift ... [...]

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Dow Theory Buy Signal Even As Homebuilders Slip

2018-09-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Dow theory buy signalBoth the Dow Industrials and Transports have reached new highs. This is the first new high in the Industrials in months, following the previous breakout from Transports. Similar buy signals according to trend-following theory ... [...]

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Everything "Emerging" Has Declined As S&P Holds Firm

2018-09-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Nowhere to hideEmerging market stocks, bonds, and currencies have all declined steadily this year.The three asset classes have declined for an average of 150 days since they peaked, ranking among the longest, broadest declines in 30 years. Similar ... [...]

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An August High As Option Speculation Ramps Up

2018-09-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Summer highStocks ended August at their highest monthly close in at least 36 months. A new high in August has preceded poor returns during the next 1-4 weeks as September lived up to its reputation. The S&P struggled to hold its gains, especially ... [...]

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Stocks Shrug Off Economic Reports Amid Buying Follow Through

2018-08-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Shrugging off disappointmentEconomic reports haven’t kept up with economists’ outlooks, but it hasn’t mattered as the S&P 500 has rallied to all-time highs. When stocks hit a 200-day high and economic surprises a 200-day low, future returns were ... [...]

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Smart Money Rushes To Safe Havens As World Stocks Rally

2018-08-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Hiding in safe havens“Smart money” hedgers have established extreme positions in safe haven assets including gold, Treasuries, the yen and the VIX.Other times they piled into the havens, it led to fine performance in stocks, and better returns in ... [...]

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Record Positive Divergence As We Near An August High

2018-08-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A near-record positive divergenceThe S&P 500’s Advance/Decline Line is more than 5% above its high from January, showing that even as the index itself has struggled to hit a new high, a majority of stocks in the index have consistently climbed ... [...]

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Dow's Long Correction With Positive S&P Breadth

2018-08-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The Dow’s long correctionThe Dow has gone 130 days without a new high or 20% loss, one of its longer stretches in purgatory. Other periods when it got stuck in a correction mostly resolved higher, with a choppy 1-2 months generally leading to new ... [...]

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Leaders Become Laggards As Traders Bet On Volatility

2018-08-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Leaders become laggardsThe Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 have lost their 50-day averages after months above, a change from June when both were leading the market. Even with the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials above their averages, future returns ... [...]

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S&P Nearly Ends Its Correction And Staples Their Downtrend

2018-07-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Still waiting for the cigarThe S&P 500 rallied to within 1% of its previous high, nearly erasing the 10% pullback it suffered earlier this year.Other times it got so close to a high, it took an average of another 4 days to reach it, with generally ... [...]

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Treasury Yields Break Tight Range As Metal Sentiment Sours

2018-07-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Treasury yield range expansionThe Bollinger Bands on 10-Year yields tightened the most since 2007 as bonds drifted for a month.But then yields broke decisively to the upside, which has usually led to still-higher rates.Precious metal ... [...]

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The S&P's Long Correction As Gold Shorts Press Their Bets

2018-07-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A really long correctionThe S&P is at day #110 after falling into a correction, surpassing its usual length of around 90 days. Other times an S&P correction lasted this long without either setting a new high or falling into a bear market, it ... [...]

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Nasdaq's Record Reversal As Black Swans Go On Sale And Yields Rise

2018-07-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A record reversalThe Nasdaq 100 fund has never enjoyed as large a recovery as it had on Tuesday. The QQQ fund opened Tuesday’s trading down more than 1%, then reversed to close at a 52-week high, something it’s never done before. The underlying ... [...]

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S&P's 6-Month Analogs As Gold Diverges From Inflation

2018-07-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Highly correlatedThe S&P’s path over the past six months has some highly-correlated analogs. They showed some weakness over the next couple of months, then strength. The bubble peak in 2000 came close but didn’t make the top 10 of most ... [...]

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Correction Roadmap As Leveraged ETF Bets Soar And Copper Flails

2018-07-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Correction roadmapNearing six months, the current correction is about in line with others since 2009. It most closely resembles 2015, which at this point was about to test its lows.A big leveraged betAssets in leveraged ETFs betting on a rally have ... [...]

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Options Traders Go All In As Investors Flood Into TIPS

2018-06-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Options traders go all inOptions traders have rushed into bullish strategies at the expense of more conservative ones. Total call volume last week mushroomed to 32 million contracts, the highest since late January, while put volume was about ... [...]

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ETF Investors Stay Home As Mom & Pop Go Back To Stocks

2018-06-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF investors stay homeFlows into domestic ETFs have swamped that of overseas funds over the past 4 weeks.The other times it happened to this degree, world stocks started to outperform the S&P.Mom & pop ignore safetyIndividual investors are showing ... [...]

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Lots Of Up Days Without Much Impact As Dollar Hits Overbought And VIX Spikes

2018-05-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.All icing, no cakeThe S&P showed a gain on 57 out of the first 100 days this year, one of its best “first 100 days” ever.Even so, it showed a meager year-to-date gain, suggesting that all those up days didn’t pack much punch. Similar years led to ... [...]

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Russell Breaks Out But Suffers Buying Climax

2018-05-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Small-caps follow breadth to new highsThe Russell 2000 hit a new all-time high intraday on Monday. That’s the first 90-day extreme, high or low, for the index in more than three months.A move to new highs after that long, and with such positive ... [...]

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S&P Breaks Out As Tech, Energy Highs Surge And

2018-05-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A broken pattern emboldens bullsThe S&P 500 put in consecutive lower highs since the January peak, but broke that to the upside on Thursday.The initial breakout from a coiled pattern has a high failure rate in the medium-term. Similar breakouts ... [...]

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Economic Uncertainty During Midterm Summers As Stocks Form Lower Highs

2018-05-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Midterm summer bluesThe summers of midterm election years are weak more often than not. Supposedly, it’s supposed to get even worse if investors are uncertain about government economic policy.Going back to 1900, however, that doesn’t seem to be the ... [...]

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Bonds And Consumer Staples Are Battered As Stocks Rebound From Bad Start To Year

2018-05-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bonds have been batteredA total bond market index has suffered one of its worst declines in decades since the peak last September. It has rallied during less than 1/3 of all weeks over the past 8 months, the worst stretch of selling in 40 ... [...]

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Industrials Sink As Markets Head Into Worst Six Months

2018-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Making stuff isn’t paying offIndustrials stocks that “make stuff” have struggled and just hit a 100-day low.The S&P 500 is still hanging above its long-term 200-day average, but the lag in Industrials is a concern. Over the past 20 years, a new low ... [...]

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Nasdaq Breadth Is (Too) Good As Buyers Finally Persist Intraday

2018-04-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Tech breadth remains impressiveA few major Tech stocks get all the attention, throwing a shadow over all the other members. So far this year, the sector is showing some of the best breadth readings since 1990, with broad participation.Even if there ... [...]

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A Long Correction As Bond Yields Hit Overbought

2018-04-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The correction that won’t endRallies keep failing, and the S&P is now more than 50 days into its correction.A lengthy time in correction territory has led to some severe declines, but even more rallies. Times when the S&P recovered quickly from a ... [...]

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Cancelling Dow Theory Sell Even As Volume Declines

2018-04-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Cancelling the Dow Theory sell signalAfter the Dow Industrials and Transports fell into a Dow Theory sell signal, Transports have caught fire. They just hit a 50-day high, which technically doesn’t cancel a sell signal but it might as well.Forward ... [...]

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A "Bearish" Pattern As Traders Flee Dollar Funds

2018-04-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.“Bearish” engulfingThe price pattern in the S&P does not look promising, according to textbook technical analysis. Friday arguably was a bearish engulfing pattern that suggests weak buying interest and eager sellers.It has not been a successful ... [...]

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Yet Another Big Gap As Market Tries To Thrust And MLPs Rally

2018-04-11 | Jason Goepfert


Yet another large gap down this morning as traders grapple with what seem like potential game-changers in terms of geopolitics. For the S&P 500 futures, this will mark the 6th time in 7 days that futures have opened at least 0.5% away from the prior close. We saw that kind of emotional ... [...]

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Smart Money Drops As Traders And Economy Favor Dollar

2018-04-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Smart money collapseMonday nearly saw a 20-year record decline in the Smart Money Index that compares first hour vs last hour trading. The past 30 days has consistent seen selling in the SMI, suggesting dumb money buying and smart money ... [...]

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Earnings Season As A Savior As Stocks Get Stuck

2018-04-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Good earnings as a saviorAnalysts expect robust growth in earnings as companies report them over the next four weeks. Good growth is also expected to save stocks as they just corrected ahead of earnings season.This has been a shaky leg upon which ... [...]

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Stocks Gap On NFP Miss And Sector Extremes

2018-04-06 | Jason Goepfert


Below are some observations that have popped up in between reports. Some of these deserve more fleshed-out analysis, others are simply random observations as I cruise through the site and news feeds to get a handle on potential opportunities.As we head into the final session of the week, futures ... [...]

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Historic Volatility As Investors Flee Funds

2018-04-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A historic couple of weeksStocks have swung more than 1% almost every day for the past two weeks. Even during bear markets, investors have rarely suffered through such dramatic clusters of daily swings.Forward returns after such high volatility ... [...]

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Successful Test As Pessimism Spikes

2018-04-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A few good daysThe S&P dropped down to challenge its February low on March 23. Since then, 3 of the last 6 sessions have been “good” with either a 1% gain or 80% up volume.Over the past 30 years, that has indicated a successful test of a low.Forget ... [...]

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Failed Bounce And Put Purchases

2018-04-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Failed bounceBefore some modest after buying interest, the most important index in the world triggered a failed bounce.That’s one of the most feared patterns for bulls because it shows a complete lack of buying interest. The S&P did suffer ... [...]

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Corporate Bonds Struggle As Newsletter Writers Retrench

2018-03-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Corporate bond strugglesOver the past 30 days, investment-grade corporate bonds have had some of the worst breadth readings in 13 years. Fewer than 42% of bonds advanced, and more than 12% of them hit 52-week lows on average.Forward returns after ... [...]

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Big Stock Swings As Consumers Retrench

2018-03-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Big swinging ticksThe past four days have seen stocks swing with heavy positive and negative ticks, gyrating near a multi-month low. We haven’t seen that since 2011, and normally only in bear markets. Since 1950, such persistent wild swings have ... [...]

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A Big Gap To Start The Week

2018-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


Futures are indicated to gap up strong on Monday following a couple of nasty losses. Since the inception of the futures, such gaps have tended to continue to lead to upside, especially over the next two days, but even longer in most cases. Risk was high, however, due to several days during the ... [...]

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Stocks Close Poorly As Smart Money Leaves Amid Tighter Conditions

2018-03-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Ramp Capital has foldedLast year, stocks routinely closed in the upper end of the day’s trading range, but that has drastically changed. Over the past two weeks, the S&P 500 has closed in the bottom half of its range every day, a new record.The ... [...]

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