Posts tagged as Price Patterns - Page 2


Weekly Wrap: Short-term speculation within long-term recovery

2020-05-30 | Jason Goepfert


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The most important index in the world has recovered from a devastating deviation

2020-05-28 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P 500 has closed above its 200-day average after having been more than 20% below it. This is its quickest-ever recovery.

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So many recoveries in trend, it's historic

2020-05-28 | Jason Goepfert


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S&P fully recovers from its long-term deviation

2020-05-27 | Jason Goepfert


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200 dma tag

2020-05-27 | Troy Bombardia


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The S&P 500 is stuck between time frames

2020-05-26 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P 500 has been stuck, trading above its 50-day average but below its 200-day average, for over a month.

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Big positive holiday gap

2020-05-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: Signs of speculation continue to pop up

2020-05-23 | Jason Goepfert


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Stocks have been trapped between time frames

2020-05-22 | Jason Goepfert


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This is (not) just like 2009

2020-05-21 | Jason Goepfert


The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving averages is recovering, so we look at other 40-day periods that look similar.

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Recovery in 200-day average breadth shows long-term promise

2020-05-20 | Jason Goepfert


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Bullish percent index shows growing sell signals

2020-05-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: Questionable price and breadth action, with a jump in speculation

2020-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


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Late-day selling drives the Smart Money Flow Index to a lower low

2020-05-14 | Jason Goepfert


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A technical rejection

2020-05-13 | Jason Goepfert


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What happens when stocks soar during a bear market

2020-05-12 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P 500 has soared more than 7% above its 50-day moving average, the most since 2011. Yet it's still below its 200-day average.

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Most gains come when traders are sleeping

2020-05-11 | Jason Goepfert


Most of the gains in stocks have come overnight. This is especially true in small-cap stock ETFs like the IWM fund.

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Timeframe tensions

2020-05-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: More economic weakness as stocks hold up

2020-05-09 | Jason Goepfert


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A rally that's powered while traders sleep

2020-05-08 | Jason Goepfert


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The Nasdaq goes positive

2020-05-08 | Jason Goepfert


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A front-loaded rally as gains peter out

2020-05-06 | Jason Goepfert


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The media is focused on a "V" shaped recovery

2020-05-06 | Jason Goepfert


There has been a record spike in the number of news articles mentioning the possibility of a v-shaped (as opposed to u-shaped) recovery.

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Is it a "V", a "U", or something else entirely?

2020-05-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: A strong start even as economic data plunge

2020-05-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Rally path given how sectors are reacting

2020-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Stocks have rarely done this before

2020-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P 500 has gained at least 1% at some point intraday for the last 6 days. That's one of the longest streaks in nearly 40 years.

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S&P notches yet another big intraday gain

2020-04-29 | Jason Goepfert


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Small-cap stocks assert dominance

2020-04-29 | Jason Goepfert


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More stock indices are reclaiming their 50 dma

2020-04-29 | Troy Bombardia


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Monday's small-cap surge

2020-04-28 | Jason Goepfert


Monday's session saw a surge in small-cap shares, with the Russell 2000 doubling the return of the S&P 500.

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A record string of gaps

2020-04-28 | Jason Goepfert


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Russell 2000 sprints ahead of other indexes

2020-04-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: Mixed sentiment during the continued recovery, with divergent sector momentum

2020-04-25 | Jason Goepfert


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The right sectors aren't leading us out of the bottom

2020-04-22 | Jason Goepfert


If we take a detailed look at sector leadership heading into the market peak and subsequent bounce, the "right" sectors aren't leading.

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Failed vs successful bear market rallies

2020-04-20 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: Stocks keep soaring despite poor fundamentals

2020-04-18 | Jason Goepfert


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A big gap to a new monthly high

2020-04-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Where we are in the typical Sentiment Cycle

2020-04-16 | Jason Goepfert


The typical Sentiment Cycle of investor attitudes has been a good guide over the years and suggests we're in the "discouragement" phase.

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NASDAQ's death cross

2020-04-16 | Troy Bombardia


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Sentiment cycle is "discouraging"

2020-04-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Initial surge shouldn't give much back

2020-04-13 | Jason Goepfert


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Up more than 20% from lows

2020-04-09 | Troy Bombardia


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Big tech trying to push the Nasdaq 100 above its 200-day average

2020-04-08 | Jason Goepfert


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A historic reversal, but...

2020-04-08 | Jason Goepfert


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"Just a bear market rally"

2020-04-08 | Jason Goepfert


The perception is that this is just a bear market rally, but it has clawed back a large part of the decline. Articles about dividend suspensions have spiked.

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It's the retracement that counts

2020-04-07 | Jason Goepfert


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The importance of follow-through on a big gap up open

2020-04-07 | Jason Goepfert


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Weekly Wrap: Historic plunge, compressed stimulus, and massive buying thrusts

2020-03-28 | Jason Goepfert


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60/40 portfolio has been hammered

2020-03-28 | Troy Bombardia


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Weekly reversal in S&P 500 and its stocks

2020-03-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Rebound pattern

2020-03-27 | Troy Bombardia


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Historic thrust exceeds other post-crash rallies

2020-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Another surge as Dow nears 20% threshold

2020-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Will the S&P break this trend?

2020-03-25 | Troy Bombardia


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Signs of a surge

2020-03-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Looking for an intraday change

2020-03-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Largest reversals from a low

2020-03-23 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - valuations, Optix, 2 week crash, volatility

2020-03-21 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - ZEW, yield curve, USD spike, S&P's intraday range, commodities collapse

2020-03-19 | Troy Bombardia


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Uncharted waters as Panic Button hits record

2020-03-16 | Jason Goepfert


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Market overview: history in the making

2020-03-14 | Troy Bombardia


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Let's assume the worst

2020-03-12 | Jason Goepfert


If we assume the worst, that we're in a bear market and recession, we can see the average path. Fewer than 15% of small caps are in uptrends.

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Pure panic

2020-03-12 | Jason Goepfert


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Big, quick pullback then strong rally

2020-03-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Russell 2000 falls 20%

2020-03-10 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - rally ahead, new lows breadth, Put/Call, Treasuries

2020-03-10 | Troy Bombardia


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Opening crash even as oversold signals pile up

2020-03-09 | Jason Goepfert


The largest ETF in the world has suffered one of its worst opening gaps down in history. The selling pressure has triggered a bevy of oversold signals.

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Biggest panics

2020-03-09 | Jason Goepfert


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A(nother) week for the ages

2020-03-07 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - sectors all or nothing, widening credit spreads, large daily swings, interest rates continue to fall

2020-03-05 | Troy Bombardia


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A bull market recovery as yields plunge

2020-03-03 | Jason Goepfert


Monday saw a massive recovery after a 90-day low, while the S&P's long-term average is still rising. 10-year bond yields are massively oversold.

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A week for the ages

2020-02-29 | Jason Goepfert


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An extreme in extremes

2020-02-28 | Jason Goepfert


This week has seen one of the fastest-ever declines from an all-time high. Breadth metrics for S&P and NDX stocks are hitting historic extremes.

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Quick pullback from all-time high

2020-02-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Another panicky morning

2020-02-27 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - New Home Sales, sharp pullback, oversold breadth, safe haven sentiment

2020-02-27 | Troy Bombardia


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Bulls' nightmare week

2020-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


The past 2 days have seen a historic selloff in stocks, cycling from new highs to multi-month lows. This week saw back-to-back 90% down days.

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Panic gaps

2020-02-24 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - tech correlations, everything rally, utilities, USD

2020-02-19 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - grind higher, Put/Call, rally's distance, S&P 500 breadth

2020-02-12 | Troy Bombardia


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Island Of Misfit Bears

2020-02-10 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P 500 formed an island formation. Crude oil has now dropped for 5 straight weeks.

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A 4th Straight Gap Up

2020-02-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Dow Turns Negative YTD Amid Rare All-In Risk-Off Days

2020-01-29 | Jason Goepfert


The Dow Industrials turned negative year-to-date for the first time in 2020. We just saw back-to-back all-in risk-off days across markets.

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What I'm looking at - correlations, risk-off, utilities, Shanghai Index

2020-01-29 | Troy Bombardia


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Retail Traders Storm Back As Key Reversals Spike

2020-01-28 | Jason Goepfert


Trading activity at retail brokerages has spiked. Within the S&P 500, more than 10% of stocks suffered key reversal buying climaxes.

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What I'm looking at - split breadth, sudden crash, VIX jump, copper's crash, gap down

2020-01-28 | Troy Bombardia


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Leading Indicators Lag As S&P Suffers Key Reversal

2020-01-27 | Jason Goepfert


The Leading Economic Indicators is showing the worst growth in years. The S&P 500 suffered a key reversal day from a high.

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Market & fundamentals overview: the overdue pullback?

2020-01-25 | Troy Bombardia


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As Good As It Gets For Trend Followers

2020-01-24 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P 500 has gone 3 months with great gains and very little volatility. There has been a jump in breadth extremes in defensive sectors.

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Writers Have Been Right As Stocks Emerge From Bear Markets

2020-01-23 | Jason Goepfert


Newsletter writers have been very bullish for 13 straight weeks. Fewer than 10% of stocks in the S&P 500 are now in a bear market.

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Big Stretch Of Calm Even As Investors Leave SPY

2020-01-17 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P 500 has gone 3 months without a 1% daily move. Traders are leave the SPY ETF even as it rallies.

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Dip-Buyers Are Determined As Volatility Subsides

2020-01-09 | Jason Goepfert


S&P 500 futures keep selling off overnight then rallying during the day, and volatility has been low for over 30 days.

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What I'm looking at: MACD breadth, time extreme, precious metal's momentum

2020-01-07 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - 2019 vs 2018, equity Put/Call, Value Line, breadth surge, AUD

2019-12-24 | Troy Bombardia


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High Yield Funds' RSI Is Overbought

2019-12-18 | Jason Goepfert


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CRB Index Golden Cross

2019-12-18 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - ex U.S. breakouts, Europe, CNN Fear & Greed, commodities, high yield bonds, breadth, put/call

2019-12-18 | Troy Bombardia


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MSCI All World and NYSE Composite Indexes Break Out

2019-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


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CFOs Are Getting More Confident (But Their Bosses...)

2019-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


Corporate insiders, CEOs and CFOs, are becoming more optimistic as stock market indexes break out.Insiders show diverging sentimentIn recent quarters, corporate CFOs have become more optimistic after a long time expecting declining conditions. At the same time, their bosses (CEOs) have continued ...

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What I'm looking at - breakouts, new highs, breadth thrusts, equity put/call, and Pound's surge

2019-12-13 | Troy Bombardia


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Is This A Blow-Off Top?

2019-12-05 | Jason Goepfert


The S&P might be showing signs of a blow off top, and the range in Chinese stocks is very small.Blow-off behavior?Heading into Thanksgiving, stocks just couldn’t lose. The S&P 500 managed to sport a positive return on all common time frames, with a strong median gain, while hitting new highs to ...

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What The Breakout In Small Caps Might Mean

2019-11-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Intermediate Term Optimism IndexWith the stock market pushing higher relentlessly, sentiment remains elevated. Our Intermediate Term Optimism Index's 20 day ...

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What I'm looking at - small caps breakout, VIX, healthcare sentiment, cocoa sentiment, global money supply

2019-11-26 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - healthcare, France, GDP growth, MSCI World Index, breadth

2019-11-19 | Troy Bombardia


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S&P 500 rallies while low volatility stocks fall

2019-11-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Stocks Haven't Done This For 7 Years

2019-11-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.There’s always tomorrowSince early October, holders of the S&P 500 have not had to suffer back-to-back losses. It’s been 25 sessions since the S&P faced ...

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What I'm looking at - utilities vs. tech, Yardeni, short term trend, REITs, small caps

2019-11-13 | Troy Bombardia


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What I'm looking at - breakouts, rotation away from defensives, more frothy sentiment

2019-11-12 | Troy Bombardia


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Trade Gap

2019-11-07 | Jason Goepfert


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Value Line arithmetic index breaks out to new high

2019-11-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Everything is rallying this year

2019-10-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Low Volume As Stocks Go Nowhere - What Does It Mean?

2019-10-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Truncated turnoverThere are a lot a technical rules that include volume, many of which simply don’t work in practice. It’s a potential issue now because ...

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What I'm looking at - TLT Optix, Leading vs. Coincident, Russell range, DAX breadth, REITs, Smart Money Index

2019-10-22 | Troy Bombardia


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A Record-Setting Number Of Breakout Attempts

2019-10-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.4th time’s the charmThe S&P 500 has quickly gone from more than 4% below its prior 52-week high to within 1% of it. This is the fourth time in about 6 months ...

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3 breakout attempts

2019-10-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Late Cycle Behavior Triggers Crash In Insider Confidence

2019-10-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Late cycle behaviorInvestors have become concerned that we’re late in the business cycle and nearing recession. News articles catering to the fears are ...

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Wednesday Color - 1% losses, sensitive sectors to ISM data, no cash cushion, breadth anomolies

2019-10-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Why this is different than other bull market peaks

2019-09-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bear market momentumThe big drop in momentum stocks earlier this month triggered the theory that the long bull market in stocks was likely over, since ...

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Thursday Color - Breakaway Gaps, Japan Jumps, Small-Caps Pop, Dollar

2019-09-12 | Jason Goepfert


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Russell 2000 after 3 straight 1% gains within 2 weeks of a 6-month low

2019-09-11 | Jason Goepfert


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What I'm looking at - NASDAQ McClellan, Rotation, Greed & Fear, Small Business Hiring, world economy

2019-09-10 | Troy Bombardia


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Gold's Shocking Drop

2019-09-09 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Gold’s bull runETF traders have consistently poured money into gold funds, even during Thursday’s big drop, which was a “shocking” decline.It started to fall ...

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What I'm looking at - Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, semiconductors, breakout, NAAIM, copper reversal?

2019-09-05 | Troy Bombardia


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A Trade-Related Gap

2019-09-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Imminent Recession (So They Say)

2019-09-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.An unequal monthAn index that equally-weights each of the stocks in the S&P 500 badly under-performed the capitalization-weighted version of the index that ...

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Friday Color - Wipeout, Extremes, HiLo Too High

2019-08-23 | Jason Goepfert


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S&P 500 after 11/15 days move +/- 0.75% and w/in 10% of peak

2019-08-21 | Jason Goepfert


The daily swings have dampened somewhat but are still large. Most days in the past three weeks have seen the S&P 500 move at least +/- 0.75% on a closing basis. The median daily change over the past three weeks has climbed over 1.2%, approaching the highest levels of the past few years. See the ...

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Stocks Have Gone Absolutely Nowhere

2019-08-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Going nowhereThe most benchmarked index in the world has gone nowhere for over a year and a half. The S&P 500 was just trading at the same level it was at in ...

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Monday Color - All About Gaps

2019-08-19 | Jason Goepfert


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Market overview: combining technicals & fundamentals

2019-08-17 | Troy Bombardia


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Thursday Color - Turmoil, Double Losses, Recession Talk, Financials, Sectors

2019-08-15 | Jason Goepfert


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A Historic Sentiment Shift

2019-08-09 | Jason Goepfert


Irrational pessimismThe survey of individual investors from AAII can be noisy from week to week, with sometimes drastic changes. Even so, it’s rare to see them change as much as they did this week, with one of the largest drops in optimism in history.Sentiment became so low, during a generally ...

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S&P 500 Island Reversal

2019-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


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The Stock-Bond Relationship Is Out Of Whack

2019-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


Strained relationshipThe drop in stocks over the past week didn’t happen in isolation, as traders fled to the perceived safety of the bond market. That moved the Stock/Bond Ratio to an extreme level, even while the S&P remains in a generally positive environment.This has typically resolved in ...

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Thursday Color - Islands, Emerging Streak & Breadth, Signs Of Anxiety, Gold

2019-08-08 | Jason Goepfert


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Shocks' Strong Tendency To Recover

2019-08-07 | Jason Goepfert


Shocking^3We’ve looked at “shock days” quite a bit over the years, most recently in May. Monday’s session exceeded the one in May, with a move more than 3 deviations beyond what investors have become accustomed to over the past year.Swift, sharp declines like this almost never end up morphing ...

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Only Black Monday And 9/11 Were Worse Than This

2019-08-06 | Jason Goepfert


Cluster muckSigns of a “split” market started to trigger in mid-July and continued to accrue into the first days of August. This has been one of the tighter clusters of warning signs we’ve seen over the past 50 years.By the time some of these trigger, stocks have already declined somewhat. By ...

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Tuesday Color - Opening Volatility, New Lows, Sector Extremes, Big Outflows

2019-08-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Gaps And Warnings And Volatility, Oh My

2019-08-05 | Jason Goepfert


NOTE: This is an excerpt from Monday's premium note.SplatTraders get to start the new week staring at large losses in the futures. That follows a week that was pretty much straight down, with the S&P 500 losing ground for the past 5 sessions.We haven't faced this kind of opening pessimism since ...

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Monday Color - Gaps, Volatility Jump, Options Buying, Warning Cluster, Hong Kong

2019-08-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Bullish Options Traders, Buying Climaxes, Silver Flow, Hedgers' Bets, Breadth

2019-07-22 | Jason Goepfert


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Don't Fight The Fed's Sentiment

2019-07-12 | Jason Goepfert


Don’t fight the FedThat market mantra mostly holds true, and based on the sentiment within the Fed, should be on the bulls’ side. A model from Nordea Markets based on language used during FOMC meetings shows that we currently have the most dovish (easiest money) Fed in a decade.There are some ...

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Thursday Color - Dovish Fed, Sector Extremes, Round #, Value Line Lag, Twitter Bulls

2019-07-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Color - Quiet, Fed Talk, Pound, Copper, Bond Optimism

2019-07-10 | Jason Goepfert


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This Is One Of Tech's Quickest Recoveries

2019-07-03 | Jason Goepfert


New highs, but...The S&P jumped to a record high along with several other indexes on Monday (and Tuesday) but fewer stocks were coming along for the ride both days. The percentage of stocks on the NYSE and within the S&P itself has shrunk from when the indexes moved toward new highs in June.That ...

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Tuesday Color - Tech's Recovery, Gold Loss, Sector Breadth, Semi's, Japan's Surprises

2019-07-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Why Gold Bugs Shouldn't Fear A False Breakout

2019-07-02 | Jason Goepfert


Risk-on hasn’t caught onMonday’s session was almost totally risk-on, even if the magnitude faded during the day. Most “risk-on” assets rose, which was the case on Friday, too. But over the past 200 days, risk-off sessions have dominated, reversing the trend that led up to the fall of 2018.Since ...

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Monday Color - High Gap, Weekly Indicators, Sector Breadth

2019-07-01 | Jason Goepfert


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The Everything Rally

2019-06-24 | Jason Goepfert


The everything rallyTotal return stock and bond indexes are hitting all-time highs at the same time. They cover an array of stocks and bonds, suggesting extreme breadth of buying interest, as noted by Bloomberg.When they’ve all hit records together, it has been an especially good longer-term ...

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Friday Color - Massive Flows, Dollar Trend, Stock/Bond Rally, Whiplash, Sector Highs

2019-06-21 | Jason Goepfert


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350 Days To Nowhere, And Why Lagging Energy Isn't A Problem

2019-06-20 | Jason Goepfert


350 days to nowhereThe Dow Industrials Average is trying to break out for the third time. It hasn’t gone anywhere since late January 2018, which was 350 days ago. It saw minimal upside and substantial downside since then.If we go back to 1900, there have been a handful of times it went this long ...

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Thursday Color - Morning Gap, Sector Breadth, Gold Breakout

2019-06-20 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Color - Everything Rallies, Bond Flow and Vol, Within 1%, Energy, France

2019-06-19 | Jason Goepfert


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3rd Time's The Charm?

2019-06-19 | Jason Goepfert


Rush for the exitThe latest BofAML survey of fund managers showed one of the largest monthly declines in exposure in 20 years. That seems like it should be a contrary indicator, but has been decidedly not, with consistent declines in the months ahead and almost no rallies, which contrarians ...

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Tight Range Following A Surge

2019-06-18 | Jason Goepfert


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The Most Split S&P 500 In History

2019-06-18 | Jason Goepfert


Split indexWith the recent surge in stocks, more than 20% of them in the S&P 500 hit a 52-week high. But the percentage of stocks mired in a bear market, or at least 20% off their highs, hasn’t come down by much.This leaves a split index, with a lot of stocks at either a new high, or in bear ...

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Monday Color - Tiny Range, Options Traders, A Split S&P, Empire Fail

2019-06-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Color - Reverval, Outflows, Overseas Surges, Copper

2019-06-12 | Jason Goepfert


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Defensive Stocks Dominate The New High List - Does It Matter?

2019-06-12 | Jason Goepfert


A defensive new high listAcross the equity market, securities at a 52-week high have expanded. Same goes for companies within the S&P 500. And within that index, it’s been more of the defensive sectors that have seen the best participation.While that suggests a potentially worrisome risk-off ...

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Tuesday Color - Gaps Up, Bond Flow, Weird Volatility, Sector Highs

2019-06-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Color - New Highs, Material Gain, Financials, Gold, Small Traders, 5 Straight

2019-06-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Friday Color - Jobs, Econ Surprises, 4 Gains, Breadth, Energy, Gold

2019-06-07 | Jason Goepfert


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Buyers' 1-2 Punch For Stocks

2019-06-06 | Jason Goepfert


A one-two rallyThe S&P 500 fell to a 50-day low on Monday, and the charts didn’t look good, but they hid a lot of underlying potential. Both Monday and Tuesday saw eager buying pressure under the surface, and Tuesday’s one-day jump in the S&P was the largest in nearly six months.When the index ...

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Buying Thrust Off A Low

2019-06-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Tuesday's Jump, Breadth Recovery, Bitcoin, Corn

2019-06-05 | Jason Goepfert


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From Risk-On To Risk-Off In Near-Record Time

2019-06-04 | Jason Goepfert


Risk-on to risk-off in a monthIn April, investors were showing extreme risk-on behavior, according to their eagerness to buy some markets over others. Barely a month later, that has cycled to extreme risk-off behavior.The first risk-off reading following risk-on behavior has usually led to a ...

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Why This Has Been A Healthy Pullback

2019-06-03 | Jason Goepfert


From new high to downtrendBarely a month after it was sitting at an all-time high, the S&P 500 fell far enough and fast enough to close below its 200-day average.This is one of the index’s quicker turnarounds from being at a multi-year high to falling below its average. When it had spent at ...

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S&P Cycles From New High To Downtrend

2019-05-31 | Jason Goepfert


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Friday Color - More Gaps, Peso, Outflows, Bond Binge

2019-05-31 | Jason Goepfert


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Confidence Has Flipped From Dumb To Smart

2019-05-30 | Jason Goepfert


Confidence flipFor the first time in four months, Smart Money Confidence has moved above Dumb Money Confidence.Usually by the time the spread between them has flipped after several months, stocks were seeing the last bits of selling pressure.With one major exception, these were mostly good ...

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Copper And Margin Debt Not What They Seem

2019-05-29 | Jason Goepfert


Copper bowled overCopper prices have dropped nearly 10% from their peak, which is unnerving those investors who trust it as a leading indicator for global demand.As a predictor for future stock returns, declines like this have been mixed, with usually positive returns. For copper itself, it ...

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Confidence, Staples, May Loss, Options Fear

2019-05-29 | Jason Goepfert


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5 Weeks Of Losses - What's Next?

2019-05-28 | Jason Goepfert


Dow dingedThe Dow Industrials have lost ground for five straight weeks, its 2nd-worst stretch since the financial crisis and among its worst since 1900.It’s relatively unusual to see such a string of losses while relatively close to a 52-week high, and over the past 40 years that has led to ...

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Friday Midday Color - Dow's 5th Loss, Energy Breadth, Utes, Social Negatives

2019-05-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Investors Are Leaving Early

2019-05-24 | Jason Goepfert


Leaving earlyWhen stocks fell more than 10% into mid-December last year, it was easy to forgive individual investors who turned negative. This week, they were almost as negative as they were then, despite the S&P being less than 2.5% off its high.Other times of premature negativity typically ...

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Thursday Midday Color - Panic, Few Bulls, Asian Slide

2019-05-23 | Jason Goepfert


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5 Signs Of Anxiety

2019-05-21 | Jason Goepfert


Anxiety signalWhile stocks have struggled, bonds and the dollar have both been rising. Whether one is helping the other is beside the point – primarily it suggests nervousness on the part of investors.When those two markets have behaved like this over the past 40+ years, stocks have usually ...

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Pre-Market Selling Panic

2019-05-20 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Midday Color - Gaps Again, Sector Divvies, Flight To Safety

2019-05-20 | Jason Goepfert


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Are You Panicking Like Everyone Else?

2019-05-20 | Jason Goepfert


Panic-level sellingWe’ve already touched on the persistent negative gaps traders have faced most mornings over the last couple of weeks. It’s worth noting again, because the gaps are now on par with panic-level conditions over the past 35 years.Other than 2008, future returns were excellent. ...

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Thursday Midday Color - Gap Fills, Bull Drops, Social Pessimists

2019-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


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Traders Are Panicking The Most Since The Financial Crisis

2019-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


More momentum miscuesSigns of waning momentum are everywhere. One of the more impressive signs of intense underlying buying was in the Dow Industrials, where the McClellan Summation Index held above 1,000 for nearly three months, until now.Other times that extreme momentum finally ended over the ...

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Stocks Just Did Something They Haven't Done All Year

2019-05-14 | Jason Goepfert


Shock dayOver the past year, investors have grown accustomed to certain magnitudes of market movements, and Monday’s session was far outside the norm. More than 2.5 standard deviations from the norm, which could be considered a shocking day.When coming within a couple weeks of a multi-year high, ...

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Tuesday Midday Color - More Gaps, Breadth (Down) Thrusts, Overseas Drops

2019-05-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Gap

2019-05-13 | Jason Goepfert


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Friday Midday Color - Pre-Market Fear, Failures, Overseas Extremes, Momentum Drops

2019-05-10 | Jason Goepfert


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What Happens When Hard Data Hardens

2019-05-10 | Jason Goepfert


Post-recovery pullbackStocks recovered from a morning drop, but the S&P still lost more than 3.5% from its recent peak on an intraday basis. That’s largest drop so far during the recovery from the December low, more than 90 trading sessions.This ends one of the longest-ever streaks since 1928 ...

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Thursday Midday Color - First Pullback, Weak Sectors, Returning Investors

2019-05-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Dow Drops Below 50-Day Average

2019-05-08 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Midday Color - Vol Surge, Dow Drops, Sector Extremes

2019-05-08 | Jason Goepfert


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Options Traders Just Did Something They've Never Done Before

2019-05-07 | Jason Goepfert


Call selling hits record lowThe smallest of options traders have spent the past 5 weeks buying to open speculative call options at one of the highest rates since the financial crisis. And they’ve given up trying to collect premium by selling call options, which would limit their upside. That ...

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Monday Midday Color - Gapped, Slapped, And Beaned

2019-05-06 | Jason Goepfert


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4 Energetic Extremes

2019-05-06 | Jason Goepfert


Energy extremesThe selling pressure earlier this week in the energy sector triggered several shorter-term extremes in breadth. Most of those stocks fell to their lowest in a month, below their volatility bands. Few held above their short-term moving averages.When the sector had rebounded more ...

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Friday Midday Color - Momentum Market, Energy Washout, Russell Breakout

2019-05-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Breadth Breathes As A Bearish Candle Engulfs Oil

2019-04-29 | Jason Goepfert


Breadth takes a breatherIn January, breadth momentum was so impressive that the McClellan Oscillator held above 50 for over a month. Since then, it hasn’t climbed above that level even as stocks made great gains.This is a divergence that has triggered near several important market peaks, but the ...

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A Most Excellent Recovery

2019-04-24 | Jason Goepfert


An excellent recoveryThe S&P 500’s new high marks an end to the correction, one of the S&P’s most impressive recoveries from a major decline from a prior all-time high. Other times it made a somewhat similarly-sized recovery over a quick- to moderate time frame, it tended to keep going, but it ...

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Tuesday Midday Color - S&P Recovery, Pound Probabilities, Mixed Breadth

2019-04-23 | Jason Goepfert


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4 Reasons Why Health Care Could Rebound

2019-04-20 | Jason Goepfert


Health care’s bad weekHealth care stocks have gotten hit, and it’s erased their year-to-date gain, while the S&P 500 has held up. The divergence between the two this far into a year is unusual.Other times health care underperformed by more than 5% through this many sessions into a year, it led ...

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Investors Cycle Into Cyclicals, Tech

2019-04-18 | Jason Goepfert


Cyclical reboundCyclical stocks got hit hard late last year, especially relative to defensive stocks. They’ve made an impressive rebound. The rate of change on the ratio of cyclical to defensive stocks has cycled from an extreme low to an extreme high.Over the past 20 years, a cycle like this ...

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Wednesday Midday Color - Tech Breakout & Breadth, Screens

2019-04-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Friday Midday Color

2019-04-12 | Jason Goepfert


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Tech's Perfect Signal

2019-04-10 | Jason Goepfert


Tech’s fully recoveryOut of the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors, only one has made a fully recovery from the December decline, and it’s an important one. The information technology group has fully recovered from its decline of more than 24%.Other times it fully recovered a drop of 20% or more within ...

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Friday Midday Color

2019-04-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Wednesday Midday Color

2019-04-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Surge In S&P For The Quarter, Off A Low, And With Bonds

2019-04-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Midday Color

2019-04-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Stocks, Bonds Rise As Volatility Diverges

2019-03-29 | Jason Goepfert


A balanced investor’s dreamThe S&P 500’s total return over the past three months is well over 10%. The total return in an aggregate bond index is up over 3% at the same time, a large move for that market.When both markets enjoyed such large total returns over a multi-month period, it tended to ...

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Close 1-Year Analogs, As Confidence Peaks

2019-03-27 | Jason Goepfert


A year like ‘90Hand-picked price overlays can show some scary comparisons to the past year, like 1937. But the one-year period with the highest correlation since 1928 was 1990, which led to tremendous gains.Of the 17 one-year periods with the highest correlation to the past year, the next few ...

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Russell's Failed Rally With A Yield Curve Warning

2019-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


Bear patternThe Russell 2000 rallied for almost two weeks, then failed on Friday and set a lower low. That triggered a classic failed bear market rally attempt.Historically, that hasn’t meant much in the shorter-term, but over the medium- to long-term, risk tended to be higher than reward. These ...

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Monday Midday Color

2019-03-25 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Midday Color

2019-03-21 | Jason Goepfert


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Dollar Fails And Transports Keep Lagging

2019-03-21 | Jason Goepfert


Dollar failureThe U.S. dollar hit a new high in early March, and optimism was high. That proved to be a headwind again, and the buck has since reversed to close at a 30-day low.This is an unusually quick reversal and quick reversals in the dollar like this have been a negative sign. During the ...

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Transports / S&P Ratio Hits New Low

2019-03-20 | Jason Goepfert


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No Pessimism Even As Small-Caps Struggle

2019-03-20 | Jason Goepfert


No pessimismOn Monday, the last of our core indicators that was showing a hint of pessimism dropped off. At the same time, 40% of them were showing optimism. The last two times that happened, the S&P formed a kind of rounded peak.Since 1999, many of the positive returns were clustered in 2017, a ...

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Monday Midday Color

2019-03-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Hedgers Are Hedging As Transports Lag Amid Momentum Ebb

2019-03-07 | Jason Goepfert


Hedgers actually hedgingHedgers in the major index futures pared their positions by more than $10 billion at the end of February. That’s one of their larger one-week increases in hedging activity.When they’ve made such big changes in the past, it has been a bit of a negative for stocks.Dow ...

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Tuesday Midday Color

2019-03-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Midday Color

2019-03-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Friday Midday Color

2019-03-01 | Jason Goepfert


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An Industrial-Led Rally As Shanghai Surprises

2019-02-27 | Jason Goepfert


The rally’s workhorsesThe Industrials sector has led all major S&P 500 groups since the December 24 low, while defensive ones like Utilities have lagged.Going back to 1928 and looking at all two-month, 10% rallies from a low, we see that the rallies with the highest sector correlation to our ...

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Sector Correlations During The Rally

2019-02-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Nasdaq Hugs Its Average As Volatility Recede Despite Recession Risk

2019-02-25 | Jason Goepfert


A tight hugThe Nasdaq Composite has hugged its 200-day average for more than a week.Bulls and bears could both make an argument for what that might mean, but since 1971 the Nasdaq has powered higher in the longer-term when it showed this kind of indecision around the widely-watched metric, ...

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A Remarkable Run, As Bulls Return And Dow Stocks Are Above Average

2019-02-21 | Jason Goepfert


A remarkable runBoth the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 have enjoyed a near-historic run from their Christmas Eve lows. The magnitude of their gains, interrupted by only a few large daily losses, have been matched only a few times.The sample sizes are tiny, but the implications are mostly positive, ...

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Tightest 100-Day Correlations Amid A 20-Year Best Earnings Season

2019-02-20 | Jason Goepfert


Just like usThere have been nearly 20 different 100-day time windows that have a high correlation to the past 100 sessions in the S&P 500. Most of them ended up peaking right about this time and saw pullbacks over the medium-term.These analogs have been suggesting for a while that stocks ...

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Highest-Correlated 100-Day Windows

2019-02-19 | Jason Goepfert


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Crossing A Flat 200-Day Average As Optimism Follows The Thrust

2019-02-14 | Jason Goepfert


Jumping over a flat averageThe S&P 500 finally closed above its 200-day average after a couple of months below. Because the decline was not that severe or long-lasting, the average was flat.When the S&P has ended a streak below its 200-day average and that average was flat, its returns were ...

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Failing At The 200-Day After Mirror Image V-Shaped Rebound

2019-02-08 | Jason Goepfert


FailedAfter two months below its 200-day average, the S&P approached it this week but then took a step back on Thursday, closing more than 1% below.Other times it approached its 200-day after at least a month below, and then showed signs of failure, it tended to close above its average soon, but ...

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Nasdaq Escapes Bear Market As Investors Pull Out

2019-02-06 | Jason Goepfert


Escaping the bearThe Nasdaq Composite has ended its bear market, at least according to two metrics. Unlike its rallies during the 2001 and 2008 bear markets, this time it has managed to exceed the 61.8% retracement of the decline. And it has rallied 20% from its low, the accepted definition of a ...

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Nasdaq Escapes Its Bear Market

2019-02-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Good Overbought; Dow Leads Above 200-Day

2019-02-01 | Jason Goepfert


Good overboughtAfter reaching an extreme oversold reading in December, the long-term McClellan Summation Index has cycled back to an overbought reading. What’s notable about this is just how quickly the Summation Index has cycled up to 500 after being so depressed just a month ago. The only time ...

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Nonfarm Payroll Beat

2019-02-01 | Jason Goepfert


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S&P Ends January Below 200-Day Average

2019-01-31 | Jason Goepfert


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Emerging Markets Rise Above 200-Day Average

2019-01-30 | Jason Goepfert


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Last-Hour Binge Buying; Shutdown Ends; Consumers' Flagging Expectations

2019-01-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Happy endingOver the past month, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 0.3% on average during the last hour of trading, one of its largest-ever clusters of gains.Not only has it been aggressive, it has been consistent. As noted by the fine folks at ...

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Holding The Trend; Retail Investors Are Still Active

2019-01-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Holding the trendAs noted by Investor’s Business Daily, the S&P 500 has managed to climb back above its widely-watched 50-day moving average and hold above it for a week straight. This ends a streak of more than 70 days without being able to do so, ...

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S&P 500 Above 50-Day For A Week

2019-01-28 | Jason Goepfert


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Highly Correlated Markets; Non-Recessionary Bear Markets

2019-01-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Highly correlatedOver the past 50 days, markets have been closely following each other. The moves in the S&P 500 have been tight with commodities, yields, and overseas stocks.This has usually happened during times of stress, and long-term returns ...

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Narrowing Smart-Dumb Spread; 4 Straight Up Weeks

2019-01-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Narrowing spreadAs stocks rally, Dumb Money has become more confident while Smart Money has increased their hedging activity. The spread between the two hit a multi-year extreme before Christmas and is now nearing zero for the first time in ...

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S&P Gains 1% Four Weeks In A Row

2019-01-22 | Jason Goepfert


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S&P Gaps Following Multiple Up Days In Downtrend

2019-01-21 | Jason Goepfert


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S&P Nears 50% Retracement; Financial Sector's Big Buying Cluster

2019-01-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Fibonacci hurdlesThe S&P 500 has erased nearly 50% of its October – December decline.Following a loss of more than 15%, this retracement in only 16 sessions is the 3rd-fastest ever. On average, it took a median of 39 trading days to get to the 50% ...

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ETF Traders Not Buying The Rally; Nasdaq Is First "Big Four" Above Average

2019-01-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Not buying itIn the three weeks following the December low, leveraged ETF traders have abandoned long funds while flowing into inverse (short) funds, suggesting they’re betting against the rally. When we look at the largest leveraged index ETFs ...

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Sentiment Cycle; Ending The Correction

2019-01-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Sentiment cycleDecades ago, Justin Mamis outlined an ideal Sentiment Cycle from greed to fear and back again. Quite a few cycles since then have adhered closely to the ideal.According to a Twitter poll by the well-respected Helene Meisler, most ...

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Best-Ever Retracement; VIX Is Awfully Low

2019-01-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Best-ever retracementTwo weeks into a recovery from a major decline, the S&P 500 has made back more than 40% of its losses. If we go back to 1928 and look at every time the S&P declined more than 15% from a multi-year high within a year’s time, ...

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Newsletters Throw In The Towel; Record Reversals

2019-01-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Throwing in the towelOver the past decade, it has taken some severe moves in stocks, in a very short amount of time, to shake optimism among newsletter writers. That’s what happened now, with a near-record drop in sentiment. For the first time in ...

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Starting The Year Off Wrong

2019-01-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Swift, Severe Decline; Up Volume Thrust; Low TRIN

2018-12-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stocks just suffered one of the largest, swiftest pullbacks in 70 yearsThe S&P suffered a 17% loss in less than four months.That’s unnerving but is not the kind of decline that happens before or during economic recessions. They are mostly ...

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A Pre-Holiday Review

2018-12-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Another Volatile Session

2018-12-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Another volatile sessionSome early optimism on Thursday was quickly erased, and stocks dove to new lows for this move. In the process, it triggered several extremes:* The Nasdaq is on the threshold of a 20% decline.* The percentage of securities ...

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New Low Spike; Heavy Selling Cluster

2018-12-20 | Jason Goepfert


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Equity Risk Premium Collapses; A Day Of Notable Moves; VIX Not Jumping

2018-12-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Equity premium collapsesThe premium that investors are willing to pay for stocks’ earnings has collapsed relative to the yield available on bonds. The one-year z-score of the Equity Risk Premium is now 4 standard deviations below average, a ...

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Long-Term Bears; Russell 2000 Bear Market; S&P Drops On Friday/Monday; Spike In 52-Week Lows

2018-12-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Long-term bearsBuilding on what we looked at last week, we take a longer-term, multi-year look at prior bear markets, including their median loss and standard deviations. We also look at returns following major peaks in Consumer Confidence.The ...

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Investors Flee Equities; Highly-Correlated Declines; December Selling

2018-12-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Leaving en masseInvestors yanked $46 billion from equity funds this week. Even accounting for the usually mid-December outflow, as a percentage of total fund assets, this is the largest outflow in at least 15 years.After the other weeks when there ...

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Bear Market Roadmap; Pessimistic CFOs

2018-12-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bear market roadmapThere have been 20 bear markets in U.S. stocks since 1950. If we look at their average price path during the next year, the S&P’s performance since September shows a high correlation to 10 of them.After those 10 bear markets were ...

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Energy Stocks Worst Breadth In 4 Years; Traders Keep Selling The Open

2018-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.At least Financials are worseBreadth in the S&P 500 Energy Sector is the worst in four years. Few of the stocks are above even their shortest-term moving averages, and there has been a spike in the percentage of stocks at a 52-week low.This has, in ...

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New Lows In Financials; Buy-The-Rally Is Dead, Too

2018-12-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Financial troublesMore than half of the stocks in the S&P 500 Financials sector have declined to a 52-week low, the most in more than two years.After investors have sold so many in a single sector to this low of a level, it has tended to bounce. ...

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Buy The Dip Is Dead; December Reversal; Smart Money Is Covering

2018-12-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Buy-the-dip is deadOver the past six months, there has been a dramatic decrease in the probability that buyers will step in after weakness. After reaching a 20-year high earlier this year, the probably that investors will buy the drip has dropped ...

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Follow-On Selling

2018-12-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Largest Gap Since '11; Presidential Services

2018-12-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Thanksgiving Selling; Heavy Pessimism; Monday Gaps

2018-11-26 | Jason Goepfert


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A Weak Retracement; A Dollar Milestone

2018-11-13 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A weak retracementAt its high point of the bounce during the past two weeks, the S&P never managed to retrace more than 61.8% of its pullback from the September peak.It has now started to fail and fall back to the lower end of its range. While ...

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Bear Market In Stocks; Small-Cap Stumbles

2018-11-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A bear market in stocksWhile the major indexes are far from a 20% decline, many S&P 500 components have declined more. At the depths of the decline in October, more than 40% of the S&P reached bear market territory.That often served as a low point ...

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Post-Election Jump; No More Oversold Tailwind

2018-11-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Election excitementFollowing the midterm election, the S&P 500 jumped more than 1%, and sector performance showed a strong risk-on bias.It was the best post-election day rally for the S&P 500 since 1982, which is the only one (midterm or ...

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Post-Election Gap

2018-11-07 | Jason Goepfert


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Rallying In A Downtrend; Peak Earnings

2018-11-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Rallying in a downtrendStocks are revisiting the 200-day average, which is now sloping down.If we go back and look for times when the 200-day average was rising for at least three months, then turned lower and the S&P was below its average for at ...

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Gridlock For A Disliked President

2018-11-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Insiders Buy; A Selling Climax; Small Traders Panic

2018-11-03 | Jason Goepfert


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No Capitulation; No Breadth Thrust

2018-11-02 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No capitulationThe VIX “fear gauge” never really spiked during the October pullback, suggesting no capitulation from investors.That’s not really true, and it doesn’t matter for forward returns. History is riddled with bottoms that weren’t ...

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A Bad Month; Wide Confidence Spread

2018-11-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A bad monthThe S&P suffered 16 negative days in October, tied for 3rd worst since 1928 and the most since 1970.The pressure was enough to trigger a sell signal for a popular trend-following strategy, with a close below its 10-month average, that ...

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Unshakable Confidence; Immense Last-Hour Selling Pressure

2018-10-31 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.UnshakableConsumer Confidence rose in October despite a bad month for stocks. The S&P dropped more than 5%, and not only did Confidence hit more than a 1-year high, it’s well over 100. Forward returns here were decent in the medium- to long-term, ...

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Massive Sell Programs; Hard, Fast Pullback, Near-Record Negative Momentum

2018-10-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Everybody outDuring the past 3 weeks, we’ve seen a near-record amount of sell programs at some point during the trading day.The lowest NYSE TICK during that stretch is now the 2nd most extreme in history, with an average of more than a net 40% of ...

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A Non-Recessionary Correction; The Trend Is No Longer Your Friend

2018-10-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Non-recessionary pullbackMost recession models show a low probability of an imminent economic recession. If we use a simple, non-optimized, real-time model, it’s currently showing 0% probability.In that kind of environment, 10% pullbacks in stocks ...

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A Volatile Two Weeks; S&P's Double-Dip Pullback

2018-10-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Swing timeStocks have swung by +/- 1.5 standard deviations most of the past 12 sessions. At least 3 of them were to the upside and 3 to the downside.There is a market cliché stating that bull markets become more volatile as they peak and head into ...

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Markets (Usually) Don't Bottom On Friday

2018-10-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Stocks, Sectors In Correction; Nasdaq's Bad Day; S&P Negative YTD; Spike In Pessimism

2018-10-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stocks in correctionThe S&P still hasn’t suffered a correction, if we define it by a 10% decline from a 52-week high. With the severe loss on Wednesday, it has just barely missed the cut. Most of its stocks haven’t been so fortunate, however. With ...

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Major Reversal; Jump In New Lows; Dumb Money Purge

2018-10-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Gap To New Low

2018-10-23 | Jason Goepfert


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China Loses 30%, Suffers Bad Day At A Low, World Stocks' Failed Bounce

2018-10-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.China losses exceed 30%The Shanghai Composite is now down 30% from its recent high.That worries some U.S. investors concerned about contagion, but losses this large didn’t usually bleed over.Bad days and new lowsThe Shanghai Composite’s drop of ...

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Correcting Oversold; Quick Change In Character; Every Dow Stock Rises

2018-10-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Correcting oversoldThe McClellan Oscillator has gone from extremely oversold to neutral. It was below -90 just a few days ago and is now up to -10.Such a rapid change in character has been a good sign during uptrends, and that context was important ...

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V-Shaped Bounces And Explosion In Hedging

2018-10-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.V-shaped probabilityFollowing declines like the past month, v-shaped bounces were common. Almost 40% of the precedents formed a bottom within a couple of sessions. While some short-term volatility was normal, all but a few of the precedents ended ...

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Quick Change In Character; Smart Money Steps In; Emerging Stocks Rebound

2018-10-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A quick change in characterThe S&P went from 52-week high to below its 200-day average in only 3 weeks. That ended a streak of more than six months above its 200-day average. Other times it underwent a quick change in character, from a 52-week high ...

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Hedging Explodes; Average Days Before Bottoming

2018-10-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Index Corrections As Panic Spreads

2018-10-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.CorrectionsAfter ending long streaks in uptrends, the Russell and Nasdaq fell into corrections. That has typically led to a poor risk/reward in the months ahead for both.PanicThe selling pressure on Thursday generated at least a couple readings of ...

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Crap And Gap

2018-10-12 | Jason Goepfert


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Streaks End As Concern Rises

2018-10-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Streaks end as concern risesMajor indexes ended some notable streaks, which were nearing record lengths. The S&P 500 ended months without a 1% move by tripling that to the downside. The Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Composite both ended long periods ...

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A Little Panicky

2018-10-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Follow-Through Selling

2018-10-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Just A Whiff Of Panic As Streaks End

2018-10-10 | Jason Goepfert


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NDX Breaks 50-Day, Breadth Momentum Rolls Over

2018-10-05 | Jason Goepfert


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Intraday FOMC Pattern

2018-09-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Dow Theory Buy Signal Even As Homebuilders Slip

2018-09-21 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Dow theory buy signalBoth the Dow Industrials and Transports have reached new highs. This is the first new high in the Industrials in months, following the previous breakout from Transports. Similar buy signals according to trend-following theory ...

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Everything "Emerging" Has Declined As S&P Holds Firm

2018-09-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Nowhere to hideEmerging market stocks, bonds, and currencies have all declined steadily this year.The three asset classes have declined for an average of 150 days since they peaked, ranking among the longest, broadest declines in 30 years. Similar ...

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An August High As Option Speculation Ramps Up

2018-09-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Summer highStocks ended August at their highest monthly close in at least 36 months. A new high in August has preceded poor returns during the next 1-4 weeks as September lived up to its reputation. The S&P struggled to hold its gains, especially ...

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Stocks Shrug Off Economic Reports Amid Buying Follow Through

2018-08-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Shrugging off disappointmentEconomic reports haven’t kept up with economists’ outlooks, but it hasn’t mattered as the S&P 500 has rallied to all-time highs. When stocks hit a 200-day high and economic surprises a 200-day low, future returns were ...

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Smart Money Rushes To Safe Havens As World Stocks Rally

2018-08-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Hiding in safe havens“Smart money” hedgers have established extreme positions in safe haven assets including gold, Treasuries, the yen and the VIX.Other times they piled into the havens, it led to fine performance in stocks, and better returns in ...

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Record Positive Divergence As We Near An August High

2018-08-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A near-record positive divergenceThe S&P 500’s Advance/Decline Line is more than 5% above its high from January, showing that even as the index itself has struggled to hit a new high, a majority of stocks in the index have consistently climbed ...

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Dow's Long Correction With Positive S&P Breadth

2018-08-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The Dow’s long correctionThe Dow has gone 130 days without a new high or 20% loss, one of its longer stretches in purgatory. Other periods when it got stuck in a correction mostly resolved higher, with a choppy 1-2 months generally leading to new ...

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Leaders Become Laggards As Traders Bet On Volatility

2018-08-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Leaders become laggardsThe Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 have lost their 50-day averages after months above, a change from June when both were leading the market. Even with the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials above their averages, future returns ...

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S&P Nearly Ends Its Correction And Staples Their Downtrend

2018-07-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Still waiting for the cigarThe S&P 500 rallied to within 1% of its previous high, nearly erasing the 10% pullback it suffered earlier this year.Other times it got so close to a high, it took an average of another 4 days to reach it, with generally ...

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Treasury Yields Break Tight Range As Metal Sentiment Sours

2018-07-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Treasury yield range expansionThe Bollinger Bands on 10-Year yields tightened the most since 2007 as bonds drifted for a month.But then yields broke decisively to the upside, which has usually led to still-higher rates.Precious metal ...

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The S&P's Long Correction As Gold Shorts Press Their Bets

2018-07-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A really long correctionThe S&P is at day #110 after falling into a correction, surpassing its usual length of around 90 days. Other times an S&P correction lasted this long without either setting a new high or falling into a bear market, it ...

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Nasdaq's Record Reversal As Black Swans Go On Sale And Yields Rise

2018-07-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A record reversalThe Nasdaq 100 fund has never enjoyed as large a recovery as it had on Tuesday. The QQQ fund opened Tuesday’s trading down more than 1%, then reversed to close at a 52-week high, something it’s never done before. The underlying ...

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S&P's 6-Month Analogs As Gold Diverges From Inflation

2018-07-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Highly correlatedThe S&P’s path over the past six months has some highly-correlated analogs. They showed some weakness over the next couple of months, then strength. The bubble peak in 2000 came close but didn’t make the top 10 of most ...

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Correction Roadmap As Leveraged ETF Bets Soar And Copper Flails

2018-07-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Correction roadmapNearing six months, the current correction is about in line with others since 2009. It most closely resembles 2015, which at this point was about to test its lows.A big leveraged betAssets in leveraged ETFs betting on a rally have ...

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Options Traders Go All In As Investors Flood Into TIPS

2018-06-12 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Options traders go all inOptions traders have rushed into bullish strategies at the expense of more conservative ones. Total call volume last week mushroomed to 32 million contracts, the highest since late January, while put volume was about ...

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ETF Investors Stay Home As Mom & Pop Go Back To Stocks

2018-06-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF investors stay homeFlows into domestic ETFs have swamped that of overseas funds over the past 4 weeks.The other times it happened to this degree, world stocks started to outperform the S&P.Mom & pop ignore safetyIndividual investors are showing ...

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Lots Of Up Days Without Much Impact As Dollar Hits Overbought And VIX Spikes

2018-05-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.All icing, no cakeThe S&P showed a gain on 57 out of the first 100 days this year, one of its best “first 100 days” ever.Even so, it showed a meager year-to-date gain, suggesting that all those up days didn’t pack much punch. Similar years led to ...

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Russell Breaks Out But Suffers Buying Climax

2018-05-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Small-caps follow breadth to new highsThe Russell 2000 hit a new all-time high intraday on Monday. That’s the first 90-day extreme, high or low, for the index in more than three months.A move to new highs after that long, and with such positive ...

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S&P Breaks Out As Tech, Energy Highs Surge And

2018-05-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Economic Uncertainty During Midterm Summers As Stocks Form Lower Highs

2018-05-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Midterm summer bluesThe summers of midterm election years are weak more often than not. Supposedly, it’s supposed to get even worse if investors are uncertain about government economic policy.Going back to 1900, however, that doesn’t seem to be the ...

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Bonds And Consumer Staples Are Battered As Stocks Rebound From Bad Start To Year

2018-05-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bonds have been batteredA total bond market index has suffered one of its worst declines in decades since the peak last September. It has rallied during less than 1/3 of all weeks over the past 8 months, the worst stretch of selling in 40 ...

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Industrials Sink As Markets Head Into Worst Six Months

2018-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Making stuff isn’t paying offIndustrials stocks that “make stuff” have struggled and just hit a 100-day low.The S&P 500 is still hanging above its long-term 200-day average, but the lag in Industrials is a concern. Over the past 20 years, a new low ...

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Nasdaq Breadth Is (Too) Good As Buyers Finally Persist Intraday

2018-04-27 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Tech breadth remains impressiveA few major Tech stocks get all the attention, throwing a shadow over all the other members. So far this year, the sector is showing some of the best breadth readings since 1990, with broad participation.Even if there ...

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A Long Correction As Bond Yields Hit Overbought

2018-04-26 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The correction that won’t endRallies keep failing, and the S&P is now more than 50 days into its correction.A lengthy time in correction territory has led to some severe declines, but even more rallies. Times when the S&P recovered quickly from a ...

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Cancelling Dow Theory Sell Even As Volume Declines

2018-04-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Cancelling the Dow Theory sell signalAfter the Dow Industrials and Transports fell into a Dow Theory sell signal, Transports have caught fire. They just hit a 50-day high, which technically doesn’t cancel a sell signal but it might as well.Forward ...

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A "Bearish" Pattern As Traders Flee Dollar Funds

2018-04-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.“Bearish” engulfingThe price pattern in the S&P does not look promising, according to textbook technical analysis. Friday arguably was a bearish engulfing pattern that suggests weak buying interest and eager sellers.It has not been a successful ...

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Yet Another Big Gap As Market Tries To Thrust And MLPs Rally

2018-04-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Smart Money Drops As Traders And Economy Favor Dollar

2018-04-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Smart money collapseMonday nearly saw a 20-year record decline in the Smart Money Index that compares first hour vs last hour trading. The past 30 days has consistent seen selling in the SMI, suggesting dumb money buying and smart money ...

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Earnings Season As A Savior As Stocks Get Stuck

2018-04-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Good earnings as a saviorAnalysts expect robust growth in earnings as companies report them over the next four weeks. Good growth is also expected to save stocks as they just corrected ahead of earnings season.This has been a shaky leg upon which ...

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Stocks Gap On NFP Miss And Sector Extremes

2018-04-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Historic Volatility As Investors Flee Funds

2018-04-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A historic couple of weeksStocks have swung more than 1% almost every day for the past two weeks. Even during bear markets, investors have rarely suffered through such dramatic clusters of daily swings.Forward returns after such high volatility ...

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Successful Test As Pessimism Spikes

2018-04-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A few good daysThe S&P dropped down to challenge its February low on March 23. Since then, 3 of the last 6 sessions have been “good” with either a 1% gain or 80% up volume.Over the past 30 years, that has indicated a successful test of a low.Forget ...

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Failed Bounce And Put Purchases

2018-04-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Failed bounceBefore some modest after buying interest, the most important index in the world triggered a failed bounce.That’s one of the most feared patterns for bulls because it shows a complete lack of buying interest. The S&P did suffer ...

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Corporate Bonds Struggle As Newsletter Writers Retrench

2018-03-29 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Corporate bond strugglesOver the past 30 days, investment-grade corporate bonds have had some of the worst breadth readings in 13 years. Fewer than 42% of bonds advanced, and more than 12% of them hit 52-week lows on average.Forward returns after ...

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Big Stock Swings As Consumers Retrench

2018-03-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Big swinging ticksThe past four days have seen stocks swing with heavy positive and negative ticks, gyrating near a multi-month low. We haven’t seen that since 2011, and normally only in bear markets. Since 1950, such persistent wild swings have ...

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A Big Gap To Start The Week

2018-03-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Stocks Close Poorly As Smart Money Leaves Amid Tighter Conditions

2018-03-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Ramp Capital has foldedLast year, stocks routinely closed in the upper end of the day’s trading range, but that has drastically changed. Over the past two weeks, the S&P 500 has closed in the bottom half of its range every day, a new record.The ...

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