Posts tagged as Seasonality


Energy slips into one of the most-hated sectors of all time

2020-09-27 | Jason Goepfert


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Stocks suffer seasonal headwind starting...now

2020-07-21 | Jason Goepfert


Starting right about now, stocks have suffered a seasonal headwind. Major indexes have suffered a negative average return over rolling 2-month windows.

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Seasonality has soured

2020-07-20 | Jason Goepfert


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Financials hit hard as they start to report earnings

2020-07-13 | Jason Goepfert


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Looking at the last week of a big quarter

2020-06-23 | Jason Goepfert


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Most gains come when traders are sleeping

2020-05-11 | Jason Goepfert


Most of the gains in stocks have come overnight. This is especially true in small-cap stock ETFs like the IWM fund.

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The Nasdaq goes positive

2020-05-08 | Jason Goepfert


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The worst six months are even worse during bad (so far) years

2020-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


Stocks are now entering the seasonal "worst six months" of the year, which tend to be even worse when the S&P 500 is down YTD through April.

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A 'double' Zweig Breadth Thrust just as we hit the worst six months

2020-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


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First earnings season after the start of a recession, bear market

2020-04-13 | Jason Goepfert


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A week for the ages

2020-02-29 | Jason Goepfert


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1/3 of days at all-time highs

2020-02-13 | Jason Goepfert


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Dow Turns Negative YTD Amid Rare All-In Risk-Off Days

2020-01-29 | Jason Goepfert


The Dow Industrials turned negative year-to-date for the first time in 2020. We just saw back-to-back all-in risk-off days across markets.

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What I'm looking at - more MACD signals, economic policy uncertainty, Baltic Dry Index, copper:gold

2020-01-08 | Troy Bombardia


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Options Traders Are Leveraged After A Good Year-End

2020-01-03 | Jason Goepfert


After a good end to the year, stocks often struggle, and options traders are leveraged and bullish, with the U.S. dollar breaking down

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What I'm looking at - Titanic Syndrome, U.S. breadth, overseas breadth, biotech, VIX jump, seasonality

2019-12-04 | Troy Bombardia


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Econo-Dread, Options Fear, Money Tree, Dollar Impact On Earnings Season, Transports, Hated Commodities

2019-10-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Color - Small traders, dollar sellers, S&P momentum, quarterly run, energy bonds

2019-09-30 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday color - Nifty rebound, a rocky week, small traders

2019-09-23 | Jason Goepfert


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Momentum Traders' Massive Loss

2019-09-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Massive momentum moveOn Monday, many momentum traders likely had their worst day in a decade. Stocks that showed the best gains year-to-date suffered some of ...

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Monday Color - Better Appetite, Seasonal Fears, Expensive Utes, Overseas Jump, Sugar Dump

2019-09-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Color - Post-Holiday Blah, September After Volatile August, Put Premiums And Climaxes, Mexico

2019-09-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Poor Earnings Growth With Stocks At Highs In Q2

2019-07-16 | Jason Goepfert


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Tuesday Color - Earnings, ETF Flows, Gold vs Baltic Index, XLY, New Moon

2019-07-16 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Color - Discretionary Streak, Fund Exposure, Small Trader Enthusiasm, Earnings Season

2019-07-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Tech Has Led - What That Should Mean For The Summer

2019-07-11 | Jason Goepfert


Similar sector first halvesThe S&P 500 has enjoyed great gains through the first half of the year, as have most of its sectors. Looking at other years when the S&P gained at least 10% through June that had the most similar returns among sectors, the next couple of months tended to be ...

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Wednesday Color - Quiet, Fed Talk, Pound, Copper, Bond Optimism

2019-07-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Best June In Decades Is Hated By Wall Street

2019-07-01 | Jason Goepfert


A good monthThe S&P 500 enjoyed its best June gain since 1955, with 1999 being the only other year with more than a 5% gain. It also managed to hit a multi-year high during the month.Since 1928, this has had a strong tendency to lead to a good start to July, but not so much after that. For the ...

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Confidence, Staples, May Loss, Options Fear

2019-05-29 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Midday Color - Health Care, Opex

2019-04-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Most Confident "Dumb Money" In A Decade

2019-04-17 | Jason Goepfert


Maximum optimismDumb Money Confidence has been climbing steadily for a month, and stocks have so far shrugged off that extreme optimism. Now it has reached its highest level in a decade.Every date that saw this high of a reading in the past 20 years sported a negative return in the S&P 500 at ...

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Monday Midday Color

2019-04-15 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Midday Color

2019-04-08 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Midday Color

2019-04-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Thursday Midday Color

2019-03-21 | Jason Goepfert


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Monday Midday Color

2019-03-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Slowing GDP As Survey Sentiment Rebounds During A Nice Couple Of Months

2019-03-01 | Jason Goepfert


Slowing growthThe GDP release relieved some investors by being better than feared. But forecasts show that growth this quarter is likely to be the lowest in 8 quarters.Like we’ve seen during past studies looking at economic or earnings recessions, the hype doesn’t often translate to forward ...

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Thursday Midday Color

2019-02-28 | Jason Goepfert


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Tightest 100-Day Correlations Amid A 20-Year Best Earnings Season

2019-02-20 | Jason Goepfert


Just like usThere have been nearly 20 different 100-day time windows that have a high correlation to the past 100 sessions in the S&P 500. Most of them ended up peaking right about this time and saw pullbacks over the medium-term.These analogs have been suggesting for a while that stocks ...

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The End Of A Very Good Q4 Earnings Season

2019-02-19 | Jason Goepfert


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S&P Ends January Below 200-Day Average

2019-01-31 | Jason Goepfert


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Starting The Year Off Wrong

2019-01-02 | Jason Goepfert


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A Pre-Holiday Review

2018-12-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Investors Flee Equities; Highly-Correlated Declines; December Selling

2018-12-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Leaving en masseInvestors yanked $46 billion from equity funds this week. Even accounting for the usually mid-December outflow, as a percentage of total fund assets, this is the largest outflow in at least 15 years.After the other weeks when there ...

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Largest Gap Since '11; Presidential Services

2018-12-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Thanksgiving Selling; Heavy Pessimism; Monday Gaps

2018-11-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Post-Election Jump; No More Oversold Tailwind

2018-11-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Election excitementFollowing the midterm election, the S&P 500 jumped more than 1%, and sector performance showed a strong risk-on bias.It was the best post-election day rally for the S&P 500 since 1982, which is the only one (midterm or ...

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Oil's Near-Bear Market And 7 Straight Losses; Election Toss-Up

2018-11-07 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Oil’s very bad monthCrude oil is nearing a 20% decline from its October peak, a bear market according to most definitions.Optimism has since dropped below 40 for the first time in over a year, but it’s still well above prior bouts of pessimism when ...

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Post-Election Gap

2018-11-07 | Jason Goepfert


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Gridlock For A Disliked President

2018-11-06 | Jason Goepfert


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Markets (Usually) Don't Bottom On Friday

2018-10-26 | Jason Goepfert


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Stocks, Sectors In Correction; Nasdaq's Bad Day; S&P Negative YTD; Spike In Pessimism

2018-10-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stocks in correctionThe S&P still hasn’t suffered a correction, if we define it by a 10% decline from a 52-week high. With the severe loss on Wednesday, it has just barely missed the cut. Most of its stocks haven’t been so fortunate, however. With ...

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Money-Losing IPOs Debut Amid Low Uncertainty Ahead Of Elections

2018-10-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Comfortable with losing moneyBankers have brought the most money-losing IPOs to market since 2000. When we looked at this in the spring of 2015, even then it wasn’t as extreme as it is now. The bankers can’t do this unless the public accepts the ...

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Shanghai Selling And Seasonality

2018-09-17 | Jason Goepfert


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An August High As Option Speculation Ramps Up

2018-09-05 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Summer highStocks ended August at their highest monthly close in at least 36 months. A new high in August has preceded poor returns during the next 1-4 weeks as September lived up to its reputation. The S&P struggled to hold its gains, especially ...

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Record Positive Divergence As We Near An August High

2018-08-23 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A near-record positive divergenceThe S&P 500’s Advance/Decline Line is more than 5% above its high from January, showing that even as the index itself has struggled to hit a new high, a majority of stocks in the index have consistently climbed ...

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Leaders Become Laggards As Traders Bet On Volatility

2018-08-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Leaders become laggardsThe Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 have lost their 50-day averages after months above, a change from June when both were leading the market. Even with the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials above their averages, future returns ...

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Stocks Are Stuck As Turnover Explodes

2018-07-06 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stuck exactly in the middleThe S&P ended its first half stuck exactly at the midpoint of its year-to-date high and low.It’s more typical for stocks to be near the upper or lower end of their range by mid-year. Similar years led to weak returns over ...

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Emerging Market's Negative Surprises Even As Nasdaq Hits June High

2018-06-15 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Emerging disappointmentEconomic surprises in emerging markets have been consistently, and increasingly, negative.That has led to mostly poor returns in emerging market stocks and currencies. It has been better for emerging market bonds (in ...

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Bonds And Consumer Staples Are Battered As Stocks Rebound From Bad Start To Year

2018-05-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bonds have been batteredA total bond market index has suffered one of its worst declines in decades since the peak last September. It has rallied during less than 1/3 of all weeks over the past 8 months, the worst stretch of selling in 40 ...

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Industrials Sink As Markets Head Into Worst Six Months

2018-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Making stuff isn’t paying offIndustrials stocks that “make stuff” have struggled and just hit a 100-day low.The S&P 500 is still hanging above its long-term 200-day average, but the lag in Industrials is a concern. Over the past 20 years, a new low ...

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Seasonal Overview

2018-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Starting Position Of Worst Six Months As Smart Money Buys "Stuff"

2018-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Worst six months with a bad startThe end of April means that stocks enter the “worst six months” period. Being invested in stocks only during the May – October period resulted in almost no gain since 1950.When the S&P was down YTD through April, ...

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SPY's Red Monday Leaves An Island And Death Crosses

2018-03-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A red bull market MondayBull markets sometimes suffer heavy selling following weekend news events, but even so, Monday was severe. It ranked in the bottom 3.5% of all bull market Monday’s since the inception of the popular SPY fund.Other times it ...

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High-Yield Pessimism Hits Other Assets

2018-02-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Heavy selling in high-yieldMost of the measures we track for the high-yield bond market are getting stretched. This week, there was some of the most indiscriminate selling in over a decade.Future returns have been very positive after similar ...

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Buying Climaxes As Small Traders Buy But Futures Gap Down

2018-02-05 | Jason Goepfert


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January's Prediction Record, Soaring Materials And The "Not Too Hot" Streak

2018-01-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.So goes January…or AugustA popular rule of thumb suggests that how stocks start a New Year means something for the full year. It correctly predicts the return over the next year about 60% of the time.That’s likely a statistical fluke, and other ...

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No Negative Surprises As Indexes Hit Highs

2017-12-18 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No negative surprisesEvery major Economic Surprise Index across the world is now positive. From the U.S. to China, Europe to Emerging Markets, all regions have had economic reports that have exceeded economists’ expectations.When we’ve had such ...

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Seasonality, Utilities, and Junk

2017-11-14 | Jason Goepfert


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Holiday Trading

2017-04-13 | Jason Goepfert


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Another Jobs Report Gap

2017-03-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Gap Opens On Nonfarm Payroll Day

2017-02-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Large Gap On First Session

2017-01-03 | Jason Goepfert


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Pre-FOMC Strength

2016-12-13 | Jason Goepfert


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December Tends To Peak...Now

2016-12-08 | Jason Goepfert


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Thanksgiving Bias After A Rally

2016-11-18 | Jason Goepfert


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Knee-Jerk Election Patterns

2016-11-10 | Jason Goepfert


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Big Gains Ahead Of Elections

2016-11-07 | Jason Goepfert


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3-Month Lows In November

2016-11-01 | Jason Goepfert


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Seasonality And Sentiment Screen

2016-10-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Negative Bias In Weeks Following FOMC

2016-09-21 | Jason Goepfert


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Friday-Monday Selling

2016-09-12 | Jason Goepfert


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Positive Markets On Nonfarm Payroll Miss

2016-09-02 | Jason Goepfert


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Gapping To A New High

2016-07-11 | Jason Goepfert


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S&P Nearing A New High On Nonfarm Payroll Day

2016-07-08 | Jason Goepfert


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VIX Drops With S&P; Friday-Monday Declines

2016-06-27 | Jason Goepfert


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A Gap Down Monday

2016-06-27 | Jason Goepfert


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The Headwind From Option Expiration

2016-06-17 | Jason Goepfert


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Market Rising Into Memorial Day

2016-05-27 | Jason Goepfert


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US Dollar Reversals Show A Mixed Record

2016-05-03 | Jason Goepfert


One of the big stories today is in the US Dollar, which is reversing strongly from what had been a new 52-week low:That looks great on a chart, and sentiment on the dollar is poor. Traders in the Rydex family of mutual funds are among the least-invested in a strong dollar in years:That's helping ...

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Combining Seasonality With Sentiment

2016-04-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Gapping Before The Holiday

2016-03-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Combining Seasonality With Sentiment

2016-03-09 | Jason Goepfert


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Gapping Up On Nonfarm Payrolls

2016-03-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Optimism Flat As Buying Surrounds Holiday Break

2016-02-16 | Jason Goepfert


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New-Month Gap Down After A Big Surge

2016-02-01 | Jason Goepfert


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A Big Month-End Rally Day

2016-01-29 | Jason Goepfert


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Stocks Hitting A Low On Monday

2016-01-11 | Jason Goepfert


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Bad Start

2016-01-04 | Jason Goepfert


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Seasonal Mean-Reversion Into The New Year

2015-12-30 | Jason Goepfert


When people discuss seasonality, it is usually in terms of how often, and by how much, the general stock market rallies or declines during certain times of the year.Those effects have mostly deteriorated over the years as they have become more well-known, but there are still pockets of ...

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Most Active ETF Performance During Santa Rally

2015-12-24 | Jason Goepfert


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Consecutive 1% Losses In Back Half Of December

2015-12-18 | Jason Goepfert


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S&P Gapping Down In December

2015-12-08 | Jason Goepfert


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Post-Thanksgiving Bump

2015-11-30 | Jason Goepfert


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