Posts tagged as Smart Money


Wednesday Midday Color - Sagging Summation, Missing MoMo, Strategist Switch

2019-05-01 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest as traders await the latest guidance from the Fed.Breadth ReviewUtilities have picked up again. Most of the breadth measures are meandering around neutral or slightly stretch. The big move yesterday, though, pushed nearly 60% of those stocks outside of their ... [...]

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Tech Tour De Force, Even With Big Money On Sidelines

2019-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


A tech tour de forceThe tech sector has been on a record run over the past 18 weeks.Going back 93 years, the only other time it had a run like this was in June 1957. There were slightly lesser streaks, including near the peak of the bubble years in 2000 and prior to the 1987 crash. While not a ... [...]

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Hedge Funds Just Won't Buy

2019-04-26 | Jason Goepfert


Hesitant hedgiesHedge funds have not been buying this massive rally. Across different hedge fund strategies, there is very little, or even negative, correlation to the movement in stocks, suggesting they are under-invested or even betting against the rally.This is unusual, though it did happen ... [...]

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Monday Midday Color - Smart Money, Biotech, Options Optimism

2019-04-22 | Jason Goepfert


Here's what's piquing my interest so far on a quiet Easter Monday session.Smart MoneyLast week, hedgers continued to build up their positions in some of the agricultural contracts. In corn, they went net long by more than 94,000 contracts, the most since 2017. That's more than 5% of open ... [...]

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Wall Street Is Technically Bullish, Fundamentally Bearish

2019-04-15 | Jason Goepfert


Technically bullish, fundamentally bearishIn recent weeks, Wall Street analysts have been raising price targets on stocks within the S&P 500. At the same time, they’ve been lowering their earnings estimates.Usually, there is a positive correlation between the two. When there is a divergence like ... [...]

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Wall Street Analysts Are Catching Up To Dumb Money

2019-04-11 | Jason Goepfert


Not-so-dumb moneyDumb Money Confidence rose to an extreme in February, yet the S&P 500 has tacked on more than 5% since then, suggesting it’s not so dumb after all. The recent gains in stocks have attracted more of these traders, and their Confidence just surged to a new high – that has been a ... [...]

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Hedgers Are Hedging As Transports Lag Amid Momentum Ebb

2019-03-07 | Jason Goepfert


Hedgers actually hedgingHedgers in the major index futures pared their positions by more than $10 billion at the end of February. That’s one of their larger one-week increases in hedging activity.When they’ve made such big changes in the past, it has been a bit of a negative for stocks.Dow ... [...]

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Big Rally In Small Stocks, With Smart Money Buying

2019-02-28 | Jason Goepfert


Small stocks, big rallySmall-cap stocks have rallied 24% in only two months, ranking among the best rallies since 1926.Other times they jumped to this degree, small stocks tended to rise in the months ahead, but there were some failures. The overall bias was positive, especially in terms of risk ... [...]

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Smart Money Buys In As Other Managers Sit Out

2019-02-13 | Jason Goepfert


Smart money piles inAs delayed reports get released, we’re seeing that “smart money” hedgers were busy buying Nasdaq and DJIA futures in January. This is unusual since the market was rising, and it’s even more unusual how aggressive they were.When they went net long those contracts since the ... [...]

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Smart Money Hedgers Go Net Long

2019-02-12 | Jason Goepfert


In stocks, “smart money” hedgers built up their largest net long position of the bull market. Hedgers went net long in Nasdaq and Dow futures, and their positions in those two contracts are often a better tell for stocks in general than S&P 500 futures positions are.This is notable because they ... [...]

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Back To Greed; Low Exposure; Oscillator Streak

2019-01-28 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Back to greedThe CNN Fear & Greed model has gone from extreme Fear in December to Greed now.It’s not unusual to see it swing this much, this quickly, but it is unusual when the S&P 500 still hasn’t made it above its 200-day averages. And those ... [...]

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Zweig Breadth Thrust; Strategists vs Analysts

2019-01-08 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.TriggeredThis time is different. When we look at the declines and attempted recoveries since the trouble started in October, what has transpired since mid- to late December is markedly different than the ones that failed. This push off the lows has ... [...]

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A Pre-Holiday Review

2018-12-24 | Jason Goepfert


The release of some of the weekly data we follow has confirmed just how extreme last week’s activity moved sentiment. I will be travelling for the holiday, so no end-of-day report will be published.One of the most reliable gauges we have is showing an extreme like we’ve rarely seen. When we ... [...]

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Oil And Energy Collapse; RSI Divergence; Smart-Dumb Money Extreme; Overwhelming Lows

2018-12-19 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No energyCrude oil collapsed with a large loss and 52-week low on Tuesday. That’s not what the Energy stock sector needed right now but taking the chance that we’re whistling past the graveyard, the losses on Monday and Tuesday may just be bad ... [...]

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Testing A Wide Disparity Between Smart And Dumb Money

2018-12-19 | Jason Goepfert


With the volatility in stocks this week, the spread between Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence rose to 55%, the widest since January 2016.Our Confidence indices use mostly real-money gauges - there are few opinions involved here. Generally, we want to follow the Smart Money traders when they ... [...]

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Bear Market Roadmap; Pessimistic CFOs

2018-12-14 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bear market roadmapThere have been 20 bear markets in U.S. stocks since 1950. If we look at their average price path during the next year, the S&P’s performance since September shows a high correlation to 10 of them.After those 10 bear markets were ... [...]

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Buy The Dip Is Dead; December Reversal; Smart Money Is Covering

2018-12-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Buy-the-dip is deadOver the past six months, there has been a dramatic decrease in the probability that buyers will step in after weakness. After reaching a 20-year high earlier this year, the probably that investors will buy the drip has dropped ... [...]

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Bonds On Sale; Hedge Fund Exposure; Persistent New Lows

2018-12-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bonds on saleA popular intermediate-term corporate bond ETF was trading this week at a price (relatively) far below its underlying value.Big discounts on liquid ETFs are rare, and often a good contrary indicator. Over its nearly 10-year history, ... [...]

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Discounts On MLP Funds; Wall Street Looks To 2019

2018-12-04 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Partnership pessimismOne of the better ways to gain exposure to master limited partnerships (MLPs) is through closed-end funds (CEFs), which often swing to premiums or discounts to the value of their underlying holdings based almost purely on ... [...]

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Insiders Buy; A Selling Climax; Small Traders Panic

2018-11-03 | Jason Goepfert


The weekly indicators that just came out show some interesting extremes.Corporate insiders picked up their buying interest, now that an increasing number of companies are outside of their restriction window during earnings season. This isn't my favorite indicator, especially when it shows ... [...]

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Smart Money Moves In As Dumb Money Leaves

2018-10-22 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Smart money moves inTraders who tend to buy into declining prices spotted an opportunity over the past week. Hedgers in the major equity index futures contracts covered nearly $19 billion of their short position, one of the largest one-week changes ... [...]

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Consumers Are Comfortable As Gold Drops Amid Smart Money Big Short

2018-10-01 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Signs of intense comfortAnother survey is showing a high level of confidence among U.S. consumers. The Conference Board, University of Michigan and Bloomberg surveys are now all near multi-decade highs. When the two oldest are taken together, the ... [...]

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Smart Money Rushes To Safe Havens As World Stocks Rally

2018-08-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Hiding in safe havens“Smart money” hedgers have established extreme positions in safe haven assets including gold, Treasuries, the yen and the VIX.Other times they piled into the havens, it led to fine performance in stocks, and better returns in ... [...]

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Hedge Funds Exposed To Dollar While Consumers' Optimism Time-Shifts

2018-08-03 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Riding the buckHedge funds have the largest exposure to the dollar in four years. Their returns over the past month have been highly correlated to moves in the buck. They also have a near-record inverse correlation to gold, which has preceded ... [...]

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Smart Money Index Influenced By ETFs as Investor Net Worth Hits New Low

2018-05-24 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The last hour conundrumSomebody keeps selling into the close, and it’s commonly assumed that it’s large “smart money” traders. That concept worked in years past, but the proliferation of ETFs has thrown a wrench into it.Using SPY volume, it’s clear ... [...]

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Smart Money / Dumb Money Spread Goes Negative As Gold Falls

2018-05-16 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Spread between Smart/Dumb Money shrinksThe spread between Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence is negative for the first time in months.By the time it has inverted after other long periods above zero, stocks struggled short-term but not long-term. ... [...]

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Starting Position Of Worst Six Months As Smart Money Buys "Stuff"

2018-04-30 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Worst six months with a bad startThe end of April means that stocks enter the “worst six months” period. Being invested in stocks only during the May – October period resulted in almost no gain since 1950.When the S&P was down YTD through April, ... [...]

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Smart Money Sells As Rates Pick Up

2018-04-20 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Smart money keeps sellingThe Smart Money Flow Index is not improving, as late-day sellers continue to show up. Assuming that means large, “smart” money managers are getting out (an iffy conclusion), it’s a warning sign.The only time in 35 years it ... [...]

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No Thrust As Big Money Pulls Back

2018-04-17 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Two weeks and still no thrustStocks have been rallying for a couple of weeks, but there hasn’t yet been a 90% Up Volume day.Forward returns when there has been a 90% day in the first two weeks were excellent, not so much when not. That is a minor ... [...]

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Wall Street Sentiment As Few Fidelity Funds Beat Cash

2018-04-11 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.An undervalued marketStocks are undervalued, at least according to Wall Street strategists. They expect the S&P 500 to end the year more than 10% above where it is, enough to suggest they think the index is undervalued.When they’ve been so adamant ... [...]

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Smart Money Drops As Traders And Economy Favor Dollar

2018-04-10 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Smart money collapseMonday nearly saw a 20-year record decline in the Smart Money Index that compares first hour vs last hour trading. The past 30 days has consistent seen selling in the SMI, suggesting dumb money buying and smart money ... [...]

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Stocks Close Poorly As Smart Money Leaves Amid Tighter Conditions

2018-03-25 | Jason Goepfert


This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Ramp Capital has foldedLast year, stocks routinely closed in the upper end of the day’s trading range, but that has drastically changed. Over the past two weeks, the S&P 500 has closed in the bottom half of its range every day, a new record.The ... [...]

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