Posts tagged as Stocks and Sectors

Lots of shorts in the UK

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Other than the stock market, few signs of a thaw

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Long term trend

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What I'm looking at - Australia, developed markets, corporate bonds

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What I'm looking at - rush into defensives, more extremes, travel, China

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What I'm looking at - sentiment extremes, everything is being sold (U.S. equities, emerging markets, gold/silver)

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What I'm looking at - bullish percent, U.S. recession, historic volatility, historic overseas selling

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Energy sector's worst-ever loss

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A(nother) week for the ages

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What I'm looking at - down days, cyclicals vs. defensives, NAAIM, Russia

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What I'm looking at - sectors all or nothing, widening credit spreads, large daily swings, interest rates continue to fall

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What I'm looking at - optix & sentiment, ex-U.S., bond market rally, airlines

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What I'm looking at - volatility is back, breadth, tech plunge, gold:silver ratio

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What I'm looking at - tech correlations, everything rally, utilities, USD

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Financial conditions have never been easier...or bubbly

The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is at a practical maximum reading. Growth stocks have surged relative to value stocks.

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Market overview: tech and growth stocks surge

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What I'm looking at - standard deviations, tech breadth, relative strength, USD

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What I'm looking at - growth vs. value, stocks vs. commodities, Hindenburg Omen, Shanghai Index

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What I'm looking at - emerging markets, % of stocks in a correction, copper, oil producers

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What I'm looking at - ISM, Hindenburg Omen, oil, semiconductors, China

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Market & fundamentals overview: the long awaited pullback

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What I'm looking at - emerging markets, utilities breadth, AAII, Taiwan

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What I'm looking at - utilities, sector breadth, Hang Seng, copper's plunge

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What I'm looking at - correlations, risk-off, utilities, Shanghai Index

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As Good As It Gets For Trend Followers

The S&P 500 has gone 3 months with great gains and very little volatility. There has been a jump in breadth extremes in defensive sectors.

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What I'm looking at - tech vs. finance, volatility of volatility, high yield, corporate earnings

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What I'm looking at - relentless rally, bullish percent index, recession probabilities, abandoning utilities

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Bond Investors Sound The All Clear

Spreads on high yield bonds are plunging, which stock investors take as an all-clear sign. Emerging market stocks are in a new bull market.

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What I'm looking at - equity Put/Call, low volatility, relentless momentum, low volume, Brazil

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What I'm looking at - 2019 vs 2018, equity Put/Call, Value Line, breadth surge, AUD

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What I'm looking at - Smart Money, USD breakdown, ZEW, microcaps, growth & tech index

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What I'm looking at - business activity, GDP coincident index, Shanghai Index small range, persistent consumer staples

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What I'm looking at - LEI, sentiment pullback, low volatility stocks, NASDAQ, Index Put/Call

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What I'm looking at - Building Permits, VIX Put/Call, long term breadth, high yield bonds, Value vs. Growth

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What I'm looking at - sentiment composite, consumer discretionary, VIX, energy sector, index Put/Call

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What I'm looking at - healthcare, France, GDP growth, MSCI World Index, breadth

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What I'm looking at - utilities vs. tech, Yardeni, short term trend, REITs, small caps

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What I'm looking at - breakouts, rotation away from defensives, more frothy sentiment

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Why Investors' Money Market Rush Isn't Necessarily A Buy Signal

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Money market mysteryAssets in money market funds continue to ramp higher. Knee-jerk contrarians will take that as a buy signal, but it’s not that easy. Assets ...

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What I'm looking at - sentiment froth?, new highs expansion, Hong Kong, New Zealand

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What I'm looking at - breakouts, Put/Call, NASDAQ breadth, new highs

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What I'm looking at - VIX, nonresidential fixed investment, healthcare, finance, SKEW

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What I'm looking at - ex-U.S. stocks, NYSE Up Issues, Economic Surprise, more overseas breadth

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What I'm looking at - stocks in a correction, KBW Bank Index, sentiment indicators, DAX breadth, high yield

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5 Trades Show Flight-To-Safety

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.A concerted flight to safetyLooking at a handful of different flight-to-safety trades, it’s evident that there has been a lot of risk-off positioning in ...

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What I'm looking at - bear market, profit warnings, VIX Put/Call, homebuilders, manufacturers' new orders

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What I'm looking at - S&P 500 Value Index, lots of chop, Taiwan, Germany Optix, UK Optix

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What I'm looking at - correlations, Fidelity Funds Breadth, KBW Bank Index, SPY Liquidity Premium, Value

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Econo-Dread, Options Fear, Money Tree, Dollar Impact On Earnings Season, Transports, Hated Commodities

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What I'm looking at - volatility, utilities rotation, index put/call, Germany wholesale, SKEW

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Transportation index moves to new high

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Tuesday Color - VIX below 14, card rates, transport services, slow growth, utility momentum

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Thursday Color - Momo rebound, AAII stagnant, sector breadth lag, MLP pessimism

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USA Leading The World In Surprises (Both Good And Bad)

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Leading the worldMost of the ways the U.S. has been surprising the world have not necessarily been the good kind. When it comes to economic reports, though, ...

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Wednesday Color - 1% losses, sensitive sectors to ISM data, no cash cushion, breadth anomolies

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What I'm looking at - stocks vs. politics, nonstop utilities surge, global money supply, Bitcoin's crash

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Stocks and the dollar are "joined at the pip"

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Joined at the pipThere usually isn’t much of a correlation between movement in stocks and the dollar. As much as investors want to assign a narrative linking ...

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Thursday Color - Gold flow and open interest, bond flow, VIX call buying, Hang Seng rollover

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Wednesday color - Utility surge impact on stocks/gold, breadth rollover, skittish signs, Egypt

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What I'm looking at - South Korea PPI, TLT Optix, McClellan Oscillator, Utilities Optix

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Monday color - Nifty rebound, a rocky week, small traders

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Investors Ease In As FedEx Crashes

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Easing back inIndividual investors are easing back into stocks. The latest AAII survey shows that the Bull Ratio has cycled from extreme pessimism to modest ...

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What I'm looking at - Housing Starts, CFO's pessimism, ZEW, FedEx crash

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A Big Jump In Big Money Bulls

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Big money gets bullishThe latest survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch that polls large money managers with nearly $700 billion under management showed a ...

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Wednesday Color - FOMC Bias, Emerging Recovery, Japan, Fund Flow

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Energy sector after oil's 1st 4 s.d. rise in > 6 months during a down market

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What's Better Than Bonds?

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Beautiful breadthThe Cumulative Advance/Decline Line for most of the major indexes are at or near all-time highs. Same for every one of the major S&P 500 ...

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Thursday Color - Breakaway Gaps, Japan Jumps, Small-Caps Pop, Dollar

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What I'm looking at - OECD, small caps, various breadth indicators

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Wednesday Color - Russell vs Nasdaq, Sector Divvies, Bond Whipsaw, Jumps Above BBands

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Tuesday Color - Value's Back, Small Business Outlook, Euro Banks, Index & Gold ETF Flow

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Monday Color - Better Appetite, Seasonal Fears, Expensive Utes, Overseas Jump, Sugar Dump

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Why So Defensive?

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.High on defensivesThe most defensive sectors of the market, consumer staples and utilities, saw a jump in the number of stocks rising to 52-week highs.This ...

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What I'm looking at - Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, semiconductors, breakout, NAAIM, copper reversal?

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A Trade-Related Gap

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What I'm looking at - Recession Probability Model, emerging markets, Treasury yields, breadth, Consumer Confidence

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Wednesday Color - Wall Street Pessimism, Utility Surge, Overseas Flow, Copper

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What I'm looking at - ISM PMI, 60/40 portfolio, XLU, gold:silver ratio

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Friday Color - Equity Outflow, Breadth High, Oscillator Extremes, Mexico Rebound, Dollar Pain

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Consumers Vs. Investors As Silver Pops

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Consumers vs. investorsThe latest Consumer Confidence reading shows that U.S. consumers continue to demonstrate an extremely positive outlook on their ...

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Wednesday Color - Stocks Down + Bonds Up, MACD Sell, Energy Lows, Gold RSI

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Tuesday Color - Social Pessimism, Big Drops, Brazil Breadth, Ag Bears

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Monday Color - A Month Of Swings, Economic Uncertainty, Sectors, Scramble For Protection

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Gold Beats Stocks' Double-Digit Jump

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Rising and falling togetherThe major sectors within the S&P 500 have mostly been moving in concert, so correlations have risen quickly over the past month. ...

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Tuesday Color - Overseas Rebound, Sector Recoveries, HY vs IG Spreads, VIX Drop

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Financials As A Sick Canary

Financial correctionLess than three weeks ago, financial stocks within the S&P 500 were within spitting distance of a fresh 52-week high. Now they’re mired in a correction, having pulled back more than 10% from their high.That’s a quick turnaround, which always worries investors. This was not a ...

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Friday Color - Risk Off, Options Anxiety, Many Lows, Big MOVE, Sector Extremes

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Thursday Color - Turmoil, Double Losses, Recession Talk, Financials, Sectors

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S&P 500 after financials fall 10% from high w/in 3 weeks

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Tuesday Color - Gamma, Dislocations, Merval & Hang Seng, Emerging Fund Outflow, Bond Optix

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Monday Color - 8 Straight 1%-ers, Large Calls, Corrections, Gold Buyers, Emerging Momentum

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The Stock-Bond Relationship Is Out Of Whack

Strained relationshipThe drop in stocks over the past week didn’t happen in isolation, as traders fled to the perceived safety of the bond market. That moved the Stock/Bond Ratio to an extreme level, even while the S&P remains in a generally positive environment.This has typically resolved in ...

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Thursday Color - Islands, Emerging Streak & Breadth, Signs Of Anxiety, Gold

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Wednesday Color - Bulls Gone, Put Volume, Energy Drop, Asian Axiety

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Tuesday Color - Opening Volatility, New Lows, Sector Extremes, Big Outflows

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Monday Color - Gaps, Volatility Jump, Options Buying, Warning Cluster, Hong Kong

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Investors Keep Hoarding Cash

NOTE: This will be the last Lite post for the next week.Lagging the market, and cashThe broader stock market has done well over the past month, but an abnormally large – and increasing – number of Fidelity Select sector funds are lagging even the return on cash.It’s not “odd” funds like precious ...

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Wednesday Color - ETF Asset Drop, P/C Ratio, Fidelity Sectors, Warning Signs, Bond Bulls, Debt Contraction, Mexico

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Tuesday Color - Gold vs Yen, Russell Lag, S&P Divergence, Mexican Breadth, Smart Money Selling

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Friday Color - Gold Momentum, Internal Warnings, Mexico

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Thursday Color - Fading 'Mo, Energy Stock Drop, Titanic Signal, Cotton, Euro Junk

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Wednesday Color - Dow Stocks, Dumb Money, Gamma, Microsoft Expectations, Germany

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Tuesday Color - Earnings, ETF Flows, Gold vs Baltic Index, XLY, New Moon

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Monday Color - Discretionary Streak, Fund Exposure, Small Trader Enthusiasm, Earnings Season

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Friday Color - Yield Curve, Small Caps, XLU vs XLE, Bonds, Brazil

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Thursday Color - Dovish Fed, Sector Extremes, Round #, Value Line Lag, Twitter Bulls

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Tech Has Led - What That Should Mean For The Summer

Similar sector first halvesThe S&P 500 has enjoyed great gains through the first half of the year, as have most of its sectors. Looking at other years when the S&P gained at least 10% through June that had the most similar returns among sectors, the next couple of months tended to be ...

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Tuesday Color - High Yield Rally, Sector Breadth, Recession Risk, Yield Drop

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This Has Only Happened Twice In 40 Years

High confidenceDumb Money Confidence has recovered from its dip below neutral territory in May. Now above 77%, it’s to a level that has preceded weak annualized returns in stocks.As a signal, the first reading above this level after a dip below 50% has led to mostly weak short- and medium-term ...

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Monday Color - Short-Term Optimism, Funds Vs Options, Lagging Small Caps And Surprises, Bulls Return, Bonds

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Tuesday Color - Tech's Recovery, Gold Loss, Sector Breadth, Semi's, Japan's Surprises

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After This Happened, Stocks Fell 15%

A trio of laggardsEven though the S&P 500 recently hit a fresh all-time high, several sectors have been trailing. Small-cap stocks, transports, and banks have all hit new 52-week lows relative to the S&P.This is atypical behavior, with a tendency to lead to selling pressure. When two of the ...

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Tuesday Color - Less Confident, Relative Lows, Bond Optimism, Gold Surge

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Friday Color - Massive Flows, Dollar Trend, Stock/Bond Rally, Whiplash, Sector Highs

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350 Days To Nowhere, And Why Lagging Energy Isn't A Problem

350 days to nowhereThe Dow Industrials Average is trying to break out for the third time. It hasn’t gone anywhere since late January 2018, which was 350 days ago. It saw minimal upside and substantial downside since then.If we go back to 1900, there have been a handful of times it went this long ...

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Thursday Color - Morning Gap, Sector Breadth, Gold Breakout

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Wednesday Color - Everything Rallies, Bond Flow and Vol, Within 1%, Energy, France

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Tuesday Color - Fund Manager Panic, New Model, OEX, UAE, Miners

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Friday Color - Bond Flow (!), Recession Risk, Breadth Thrust, Gold Options, Stock Screen

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A Tale Of 2 Sectors

A tale of two sectorsMost utility stocks have been rising over the past 3 weeks and are trading above their 50-day averages. Few energy stocks can boast the same.When there has been this wide of a divergence between those two sectors, the broader market had a strong tendency to rise with only ...

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Wednesday Color - Reverval, Outflows, Overseas Surges, Copper

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Defensive Stocks Dominate The New High List - Does It Matter?

A defensive new high listAcross the equity market, securities at a 52-week high have expanded. Same goes for companies within the S&P 500. And within that index, it’s been more of the defensive sectors that have seen the best participation.While that suggests a potentially worrisome risk-off ...

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Small Traders Buy Record Hedges Even As Financials Surge

Financial recoveryFor the first time since early 2018, more than a quarter of financial stocks within the S&P 500 hit a 52-week high.This kind of a surge has been good for the sector, with gains over the next year every time.In 2000, this jump in new highs among financial stocks led to a 4% ...

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Monday Color - New Highs, Material Gain, Financials, Gold, Small Traders, 5 Straight

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Friday Color - Jobs, Econ Surprises, 4 Gains, Breadth, Energy, Gold

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Thursday Color - Bond Moves, Yield Curve, Jobs, REITs & Utes, New Highs, Mexico

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Tuesday's Jump, Breadth Recovery, Bitcoin, Corn

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Tuesday Color - Bond Volatility And Optimism, Gold, Flows, Tech Breadth

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Wednesday Color - Gaps, Confidence, Staples, May Loss, Options Fear

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Tuesday Midday Color - Shanghai, , DAX, Bond Bulls, Euro Sentiment

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5 Weeks Of Losses - What's Next?

Dow dingedThe Dow Industrials have lost ground for five straight weeks, its 2nd-worst stretch since the financial crisis and among its worst since 1900.It’s relatively unusual to see such a string of losses while relatively close to a 52-week high, and over the past 40 years that has led to ...

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Friday Midday Color - Dow's 5th Loss, Energy Breadth, Utes, Social Negatives

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Thursday Midday Color - Panic, Few Bulls, Asian Slide

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Wednesday Midday Color - Technical Buy, Asia Flows, Economic Woes

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This Has Happened To Tech Only Twice Before

From first to worstStocks have lost one of their biggest drivers. Tech stocks have powered much of the rally through April, and then fell hard. The sector was leading the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors, and then fell to the worst among them over the past few weeks.That does not happen often, and ...

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Tuesday Midday Color - Shorts, Emerging Mkts, Sector Extremes

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Monday Midday Color - Gaps Again, Sector Divvies, Flight To Safety

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Are You Panicking Like Everyone Else?

Panic-level sellingWe’ve already touched on the persistent negative gaps traders have faced most mornings over the last couple of weeks. It’s worth noting again, because the gaps are now on par with panic-level conditions over the past 35 years.Other than 2008, future returns were excellent. ...

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Friday Midday Color - Pre-Market Fear, Failures, Overseas Extremes, Momentum Drops

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Wednesday Midday Color - Vol Surge, Dow Drops, Sector Extremes

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Tuesday Midday Color - Overseas Carnage, Sweet Sugar

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4 Energetic Extremes

Energy extremesThe selling pressure earlier this week in the energy sector triggered several shorter-term extremes in breadth. Most of those stocks fell to their lowest in a month, below their volatility bands. Few held above their short-term moving averages.When the sector had rebounded more ...

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Friday Midday Color - Momentum Market, Energy Washout, Russell Breakout

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Wednesday Midday Color - Sagging Summation, Missing MoMo, Strategist Switch

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A Shocking Volatility Twist With Recovering Financials

Volatility twistOver the past month, volatility in big tech stocks has been lower than volatility in stocks specifically chosen because of their staid nature, according to Bloomberg data. Historical volatility on the Nasdaq 100 fell below that of the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index, a rare twist ...

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Tech Tour De Force, Even With Big Money On Sidelines

A tech tour de forceThe tech sector has been on a record run over the past 18 weeks.Going back 93 years, the only other time it had a run like this was in June 1957. There were slightly lesser streaks, including near the peak of the bubble years in 2000 and prior to the 1987 crash. While not a ...

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Friday Midday Color - Flows, Breadth Extremes, Shanghai

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Wednesday Midday Color - Bond Bulls, High-Yield Breadth, Lagging S&P Stocks, Tech Values

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Tuesday Midday Color - S&P Recovery, Pound Probabilities, Mixed Breadth

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Uh-Oh, Options Speculators Are Back

Sector battleThe ratio between the S&P 500’s technology and health care sectors has swung by an extreme amount. The 50-day rate of change in the ratio between the two has cycled from negative to a 10-year high.Since 1990, other times it swung like this, tech suffered, while health care held up ...

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Monday Midday Color - Smart Money, Biotech, Options Optimism

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4 Reasons Why Health Care Could Rebound

Health care’s bad weekHealth care stocks have gotten hit, and it’s erased their year-to-date gain, while the S&P 500 has held up. The divergence between the two this far into a year is unusual.Other times health care underperformed by more than 5% through this many sessions into a year, it led ...

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Thursday Midday Color - Health Care, Opex

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Investors Cycle Into Cyclicals, Tech

Cyclical reboundCyclical stocks got hit hard late last year, especially relative to defensive stocks. They’ve made an impressive rebound. The rate of change on the ratio of cyclical to defensive stocks has cycled from an extreme low to an extreme high.Over the past 20 years, a cycle like this ...

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Most Confident "Dumb Money" In A Decade

Maximum optimismDumb Money Confidence has been climbing steadily for a month, and stocks have so far shrugged off that extreme optimism. Now it has reached its highest level in a decade.Every date that saw this high of a reading in the past 20 years sported a negative return in the S&P 500 at ...

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Tuesday Midday Color

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Monday Midday Color

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Wall Street Is Technically Bullish, Fundamentally Bearish

Technically bullish, fundamentally bearishIn recent weeks, Wall Street analysts have been raising price targets on stocks within the S&P 500. At the same time, they’ve been lowering their earnings estimates.Usually, there is a positive correlation between the two. When there is a divergence like ...

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Friday Midday Color

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Thursday Midday Color

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Wednesday Midday Color

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Tech's Perfect Signal

Tech’s fully recoveryOut of the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors, only one has made a fully recovery from the December decline, and it’s an important one. The information technology group has fully recovered from its decline of more than 24%.Other times it fully recovered a drop of 20% or more within ...

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Tuesday Midday Color

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An Important Shanghai Rally Amid Terrible Economic Surprises

An important thresholdWhen big rallies in the Shanghai Composite failed, fewer than 90% of stocks on the exchange had managed to rise above their 200-day averages. When more than 90% did so, the rallies lasted long-term, at least over the past 17 years. That just happened again.It’s also been a ...

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Shanghai Rally Bodes Well Long-Term

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Wednesday Midday Color

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Options Traders Bet On Decline As S&P Meets Target And Utes Surge

Options bets and strategists’ spreadAs stocks rally, options traders have built up a large position in S&P 500 put options, relative to the number of outstanding calls. It’s the opposite in VIX options, where they have few puts and many calls. Since 2006, this has led to a negative annualized ...

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Surge In New Highs Among Utilities

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Thursday Midday Color

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Wednesday Midday Color

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Tuesday Midday Color

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Catching Up

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Tepid Fund Flows With Record Exodus From Financials

Tepid equity flowThe S&P 500 has jumped more than 12% over the past two months, yet inflows to equity funds continue to be tepid.This is one of the few times that stocks have performed so well over a two-month span, with negative equity flows during the rally. Future returns in the S&P were ...

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Tuesday Midday Color

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Big Rally In Small Stocks, With Smart Money Buying

Small stocks, big rallySmall-cap stocks have rallied 24% in only two months, ranking among the best rallies since 1926.Other times they jumped to this degree, small stocks tended to rise in the months ahead, but there were some failures. The overall bias was positive, especially in terms of risk ...

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An Industrial-Led Rally As Shanghai Surprises

The rally’s workhorsesThe Industrials sector has led all major S&P 500 groups since the December 24 low, while defensive ones like Utilities have lagged.Going back to 1928 and looking at all two-month, 10% rallies from a low, we see that the rallies with the highest sector correlation to our ...

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Tuesday Midday Color

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No Volatility As Utilities' Breadth Impresses

No volatilityVolatility expectations across assets have plunged. The VIX and its related measures for stocks, bonds, oil, gold, and bonds is hovering near multi-year or even multi-decade lows.Since 1990, it has been unusual to see the “volatility of everything” collapse at the same time, and it ...

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Monday Midday Color

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Jobless Claims Hit 52-Week High As High Beta Shows Relative Struggles

Climbing claimsA 4-week average of jobless claims hit a 52-week high this week, triggering an increase in the probability of recession.Other times that claims cycled from a 52-week low to a 52-week high since 1967, there was a headwind for stocks and tailwind for bonds, especially over the next ...

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Extreme Greed As Utilities And Yields Forge Unholy Alliance

Extreme greedThe CNN Fear & Greed proxy model has moved further into optimistic territory, now showing Extreme Greed, pushed higher by most of the components in the model.Other times it has become this stretched in a downtrend, future returns were almost exclusively negative. There were 99 days ...

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Emerging Markets Breakout; Fidelity Managers Beat Cash; Baltic Dry Collapse

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Breaking outEmerging markets have closed above their 200-day average for the first time since last spring, a streak of nearly 9 months. That’s one of the longer streaks in 30 years.Other times an emerging markets index ended long streaks below its ...

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Emerging Markets Rise Above 200-Day Average

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S&P Nears 50% Retracement; Financial Sector's Big Buying Cluster

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Fibonacci hurdlesThe S&P 500 has erased nearly 50% of its October – December decline.Following a loss of more than 15%, this retracement in only 16 sessions is the 3rd-fastest ever. On average, it took a median of 39 trading days to get to the 50% ...

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No Bank Failures; Battle Of Time Frames For Moving Averages

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.As good as it can getLast year, there were no bank failures. That sounds like a good thing, and it’s happened only 3 other times in 85 years. A sample size of 3 makes it difficult to consider the precedents, so if we relax the parameters and look ...

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Oil And Energy Collapse; RSI Divergence; Smart-Dumb Money Extreme; Overwhelming Lows

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.No energyCrude oil collapsed with a large loss and 52-week low on Tuesday. That’s not what the Energy stock sector needed right now but taking the chance that we’re whistling past the graveyard, the losses on Monday and Tuesday may just be bad ...

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Energy Stocks Worst Breadth In 4 Years; Traders Keep Selling The Open

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.At least Financials are worseBreadth in the S&P 500 Energy Sector is the worst in four years. Few of the stocks are above even their shortest-term moving averages, and there has been a spike in the percentage of stocks at a 52-week low.This has, in ...

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Financials' New Lows; Bank Loan Pessimism

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Discounts On MLP Funds; Wall Street Looks To 2019

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Partnership pessimismOne of the better ways to gain exposure to master limited partnerships (MLPs) is through closed-end funds (CEFs), which often swing to premiums or discounts to the value of their underlying holdings based almost purely on ...

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Mexican Stock Collapse; Small Traders Load Up On Puts

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Heavy selling south of the borderMexican stocks have dropped 30% from their highs in US dollars and 20% in pesos.This has nothing to do with the politics of the new administration, which admittedly is a big omit. In emerging markets, new ruling ...

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Low Volatility Beats High Beta; Worst-Case Corrections; Bad BID

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Rush to safetyInvestors have moved into “safe” low-volatility stocks at the expense of “risky” high-beta ones. The ratio between the two just hit a two-year high, which has preceded some trouble for stocks over the shorter-term.Over the ...

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Puts Are Popular; No Sector Funds Are Beating Cash

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Puts have become popularSince the market peaked in September, most days have seen at least 10% more put options traded than call options, the largest cluster in three years. Out of a total of 27 days in the sample, the S&P was higher two months ...

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Fear And Loathing In Bonds; Energy Apathy

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Fear and loathing in junk bondsHigh-yield bonds had a very bad day on Tuesday, with extremely poor breadth and sentiment.On Tuesday alone, nearly half of all high-yield bonds declined on the day, they went from an almost even number of 52-week ...

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Stock Returns After Crude Collapse

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Bear Market In Stocks; Small-Cap Stumbles

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A bear market in stocksWhile the major indexes are far from a 20% decline, many S&P 500 components have declined more. At the depths of the decline in October, more than 40% of the S&P reached bear market territory.That often served as a low point ...

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Stocks, Sectors In Correction; Nasdaq's Bad Day; S&P Negative YTD; Spike In Pessimism

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stocks in correctionThe S&P still hasn’t suffered a correction, if we define it by a 10% decline from a 52-week high. With the severe loss on Wednesday, it has just barely missed the cut. Most of its stocks haven’t been so fortunate, however. With ...

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China Loses 30%, Suffers Bad Day At A Low, World Stocks' Failed Bounce

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.China losses exceed 30%The Shanghai Composite is now down 30% from its recent high.That worries some U.S. investors concerned about contagion, but losses this large didn’t usually bleed over.Bad days and new lowsThe Shanghai Composite’s drop of ...

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Waiting For A Breadth Thrust; Chinese Investors' Long Slog

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Waiting for a thrustBreadth recent hit a deep oversold reading, now many are looking for an upside “thrust” that signals a return of buying interest.But waiting for a breath thrust hasn’t worked well in bull markets. Future returns were better, and ...

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Quick Change In Character; Smart Money Steps In; Emerging Stocks Rebound

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A quick change in characterThe S&P went from 52-week high to below its 200-day average in only 3 weeks. That ended a streak of more than six months above its 200-day average. Other times it underwent a quick change in character, from a 52-week high ...

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Rate-Sensitive Divergence With Yields As New Lows Climb

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Rate-sensitive divergence warningAs yields rise, the Financial sector is badly underperforming Utilities, which is atypical.Historically, there has been a strong positive correlation between rates and the ratio of Financials to Utilities. When a ...

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Palladium Rally Not Helping Autos As Warnings Keep Mounting

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Autos sink despite a “should be” good signThe S&P 500 Auto sector has sunk to a 52-week low despite strong palladium prices, which are at their highest in months.While that’s usually interpreted as a good sign for the sector, it was not, and mostly ...

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Dow Theory Buy Signal Even As Homebuilders Slip

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Dow theory buy signalBoth the Dow Industrials and Transports have reached new highs. This is the first new high in the Industrials in months, following the previous breakout from Transports. Similar buy signals according to trend-following theory ...

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XLK And XLY Spike In Assets

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Shanghai Selling And Seasonality

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Financials Lag As Transports Lead

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Stalling Financials trigger concernEven as the S&P tickles a new high, Financials have struggled and are the worst-performing major sector over the past six months. The ratio between Financials to the S&P just hit a new 52-week low, which has been ...

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Emerging Market Contagion As Hedgers Bet Against Dollar

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Contagion spreads despite calm crudeStories with “contagion” worries are spiking to the highest level in 5 years.The cause, a collapse in emerging markets, is despite a calm market in crude oil, which has usually acted as a balm on those emerging ...

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Everything "Emerging" Has Declined As S&P Holds Firm

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Nowhere to hideEmerging market stocks, bonds, and currencies have all declined steadily this year.The three asset classes have declined for an average of 150 days since they peaked, ranking among the longest, broadest declines in 30 years. Similar ...

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Industrial Metals Near Bear Market As Miners Collapse

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Industrial metals suck, tooPrecious metals’ lesser-followed kin are nearing a bear market, worrying investors as they are traditionally seen as being leading indicators of economic activity.Once in a bear market, industrial metals tend to keep ...

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Precious Little Optimism As Emerging Markets Sink Toward Bear Market

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Precious little optimismOptimism on gold, silver, and platinum now ranks among the lowest in 27 years.The combined Optimism Index on the three metals has been lower only a handful of days. The few other periods of historic pessimism led to good ...

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Breadth Divergences Not Much Of A Concern As Staples Recover

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Few highs as indexes rallyThe S&P 500 has rallied close to its prior highs, but there is a divergence. Relatively few stocks are registering 4-, 12-, and 52-week highs as the index rallies.It’s a concern among technicians but has not been a ...

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Hedge Funds Exposed To Dollar While Consumers' Optimism Time-Shifts

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Riding the buckHedge funds have the largest exposure to the dollar in four years. Their returns over the past month have been highly correlated to moves in the buck. They also have a near-record inverse correlation to gold, which has preceded ...

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S&P Nearly Ends Its Correction And Staples Their Downtrend

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Still waiting for the cigarThe S&P 500 rallied to within 1% of its previous high, nearly erasing the 10% pullback it suffered earlier this year.Other times it got so close to a high, it took an average of another 4 days to reach it, with generally ...

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Momentum Worries As Emerging Stocks Start Uptrending

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum worriesAs the S&P hit a 100-day high, a very low % of stocks are showing momentum. An almost record low % of stocks are above their 10-day avg or have an RSI > 70, which has preceded weak shorter-term returns or failed rallies.Emerging ...

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Financials' Pre-Earnings Decline As Emerging Markets Struggle While Oil Rallies

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Pre-earnings declineFinancials dropped 4% in the months leading up to the current earnings season, which begins this week as banks start to release quarterly earnings.Similar selloffs since 1950 preceded rallies over the next month, though it ...

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Emerging Stocks' Uptrend Ends As S&P Suffers 4th-Longest Pullback

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Emerging stocks’ long-term uptrend is goneEmerging markets have ended one of their longest-ever long-term uptrends.Risk was high after the others ended, especially over the next two months. They’ve already seen an 8% drop since the trended ended, ...

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World Markets And Platinum Fall As Utilities Streak Higher

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.World stocks hit 2018 lowWorld stocks have hit a 200-day low while the S&P 500 is more than 8% above its own 200-day low. Similar setups led to a rebound in World stocks over the next 2-4 weeks.Compared to the S&P, World stocks outperformed every ...

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Gold Suffers Death Cross As Financials Stumble

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Not a Golden CrossGold’s 50-day average finally crossed below its 200-day for the first time in a year, ending one of its longest-ever streaks with a more positive medium- than long-term trend.The metal tended to trend lower in the months after ...

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Dow's Streak Snapped As China ETF Nears Bear Market

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Had to happen sometimeThe Dow Industrials Average ended its 2-year streak of holding above its 200-day average, its 7th-longest streak in an uptrend since 1900.It wasn’t a death knell for the index, especially when the Leading Economic Indicators ...

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GE Booted From Dow As Russell And Nasdaq Hit Highs

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Somebody turn on the lightsGE got booted from the DJIA after 100 years, after a similar stretch of poor returns from Alcoa when it was removed…and before it doubled during the next year.Other stocks that got removed from the Dow did fine going ...

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Emerging Market Bond (And Stock) Rout

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Emerging market bond routU.S. high-yield bonds have outperformed emerging market bonds by 7% in 50 days.Such wide spreads have led to rallies in emerging market bonds more than U.S..Stock rout, tooEmerging market stocks have lagged U.S. stocks by ...

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Emerging Market's Negative Surprises Even As Nasdaq Hits June High

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Emerging disappointmentEconomic surprises in emerging markets have been consistently, and increasingly, negative.That has led to mostly poor returns in emerging market stocks and currencies. It has been better for emerging market bonds (in ...

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Euro Death Cross As Down Days Swamp Up Days, Staples Stabilize

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Euro Death CrossFor more than a year, the euro’s 50-day average has been above its 200-day average.That trend has now ended, after one of the longest streaks in the currency’s history. The end to other long streaks led to further weakness in the ...

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Breadth Momentum Picks Up As Value Lags Growth And Homebuilders Turn Up

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Momentum is picking upMomentum in breadth figures is returning, with the McClellan Summation Index climbing. When it reaches 500 for the first time in months, it has led to an excellent risk/reward skew for stocks.The S&P 500’s annualized return ...

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Nasdaq Hits New High With Fewer Stocks Coming Along

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Some tech stocks struggle to keep upThe S&P 500 Technology index has hit new highs the past two days, but fewer of its stocks are coming along. In January and March, more than 40% of its members hit 52-week highs, compared to only 15% on ...

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Energy ETF Traders Rush In As Animal Spirit Indicator Hits A High

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.ETF traders rush into EnergyAssets in the primary ETFs focused on the Energy sector have reached $32 billion, a new all-time high. That’s up 20% in just 30 days, among the most rapid increases since at least 2010.Similar surges led to declines for ...

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Transports Shrug Off Oil As Smart Money Bets On VIX

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Transports shrug off oil’s riseThe Dow Transports have rallied strongly over the past 30 days even as oil jumped twice as much.Transports have rallied enough to close at a multi-month high. When the sector has shrugged off surging oil prices ...

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Energy Stocks Hit New Highs As Volatility Traders Pile In

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Energy stocks enjoying new highsMore than 40% of stocks in the S&P 500 Energy sector have reached a 52-week high.That’s the most in more than a year and has preceded declines in the sector in recent years.ETF traders bet on a spike in ...

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Small Caps Lead As Staples Lose Relevance And Energy Can't Lose

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The leading indexSmall cap stocks, via the Russell 2000 index, are leading the other major indexes in the race to new highs. It’s the only index that has reached a 52-week high in the past 30 days.Other times it led to new highs, it was an ...

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S&P Breaks Out As Tech, Energy Highs Surge And

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Bonds And Consumer Staples Are Battered As Stocks Rebound From Bad Start To Year

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Bonds have been batteredA total bond market index has suffered one of its worst declines in decades since the peak last September. It has rallied during less than 1/3 of all weeks over the past 8 months, the worst stretch of selling in 40 ...

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Industrials Sink As Markets Head Into Worst Six Months

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Making stuff isn’t paying offIndustrials stocks that “make stuff” have struggled and just hit a 100-day low.The S&P 500 is still hanging above its long-term 200-day average, but the lag in Industrials is a concern. Over the past 20 years, a new low ...

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Seasonal Overview

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Consumers Turn Bearish As Dow, Staples Decline

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Consumers are buying…just not stocksThe latest Consumer Confidence survey shows more consumers expect stocks to decline than rally. That’s the first time since the November 2016 election that the U.S. consumer has been bearish on stocks.Other times ...

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Consumer Staples Have Been Historically Unstable

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.So much for being a StapleConsumer Staples stocks have taken a big hit over the past couple of days (and weeks). Many of what had been considered safe stocks are down more than 5% in just two days. More than 25% of them are now trading at their ...

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Yet Another Big Gap As Market Tries To Thrust And MLPs Rally

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Stocks Gap On NFP Miss And Sector Extremes

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VIX Jumps 20% Again As Rates Lose 50-Day

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A questionable precedentA month ago, we saw that after a 10% decline, the Dow Industrials was most closely tracking “good” corrections. That has started to change in recent sessions, and now the closest precedent is from November 2007.Double ...

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Unstable Staples Lead To Energy Bounce

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Staples are unstableConsumer Staples hit a 52-week low on Wednesday even while the broader market holds up. The only times in more than 90 years we’ve seen this to this degree were in 1993 and 1999, which led to gains over the medium-term.Times ...

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Technology Beats Utilities As Confidence Rises

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Tech ramps against staid UtilitiesThe ratio of Tech to Utes has soared in the past couple of years, similar to the 2000 bubble years. It’s not quite that extreme, though, and there were other periods when investors greatly favored the riskier ...

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