Posts tagged as spx

Volatility Regime Change As Utilities Try

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Regime changeAfter going more than 400 days without a major cluster of volatility, stocks have moved 1% most of the past 30 days.That is commonly believed to suggest a trend change but has not been consistent. It was especially bullish when we saw ...

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Historic Pace Of Selling

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Hated Bonds As U.S. Economy Out-Surprises Eurozone

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Survey says: sell bondsRecent surveys of diverse investor groups show nearly universal expectations for higher rates (lower bond prices). An average of different surveys is the most extreme since 2005.Other extremes mostly led to lower interest ...

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Down Days And MLPs

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Shades Of '87 In Stock/Dollar/Rate Moves As 50-Day Fails

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Shades of ’87 (among others)Over the past year, stocks have rallied, and the dollar has collapses as the Fed raises rates.That is similar to 1987, but there were also other dates that didn’t lead to nearly such dramatic results. After similar ...

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High-Yield Pessimism Hits Other Assets

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Heavy selling in high-yieldMost of the measures we track for the high-yield bond market are getting stretched. This week, there was some of the most indiscriminate selling in over a decade.Future returns have been very positive after similar ...

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Gaps Galore As Another Streak Ends

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Gaps galoreHeading into the peak in January, stock futures were gapping up almost every day. Now, they’ve gapped down at the open almost every day, tied for the most in history over an 8-day span.Other tight clusters of gap down opens led to ...

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Panic And Reverse

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Panic and reverseStocks suffered a panic day on Monday, then reversed early losses to close higher. That matches several other instances that led to consistent returns going forward.There was volatile back-and-forth then another run at the prior ...

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Record Gaps As Investors Pour In

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Green every morningStocks have been gapping up in the morning almost every day. During the past 30 sessions, more than 85% of them have seen the futures open higher than the prior close.That is – by far – the most since futures began trading in ...

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Dollar Ignores Rates As S&P Shows Exhaustion

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Ignoring the rise in ratesDespite a steady rise in interest rates, the U.S. dollar has declined more than 10% over the past year.That’s unusual, especially given the magnitude of the fall in the dollar and the rise in rates. The other times it ...

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Record Gaps

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Doubling Up Moving Average As S&P Members Get Overbought

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Doubling up the averagesThe S&P is 3% above its short-term moving average, 6% above its medium-term and 13% above its long-term.It hasn’t managed to “double up” its gains above each successive moving average in 20 years. Similar bouts of momentum ...

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Gapping Up And Nasdaq New Highs

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Burst Of New Highs As Optimism Hits 30-Year High

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.A rare burst of new highsMost of the major indexes and sectors had more than 25% of their stocks hit a 52-week high on Tuesday. Only Staples and Utilities saw fewer than 10% of their stocks hit a new high. On average across indexes and sectors, 27% ...

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Gap Up While Bears Scatter And New Highs Jump

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Persistent Trend As Stocks Become Stretched

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The most persistent trendThe persistence of the S&P’s uptrend over the past year is among the highest in its history. Same goes for the past 3, 5, and 10 years.When we look at the 5 comparable trends, using the 200-day average as a guide was ...

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The S&P's Momentum Streak Aided By Industrials

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.The S&P’s consistent, rapid rallyThe most important index in the world has rallied consistently for the past 1, 3, and 6 months. It has also picked up its gains, nearing or exceeding its upper Bollinger Band on daily, weekly, and monthly time ...

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January's Prediction Record, Soaring Materials And The "Not Too Hot" Streak

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.So goes January…or AugustA popular rule of thumb suggests that how stocks start a New Year means something for the full year. It correctly predicts the return over the next year about 60% of the time.That’s likely a statistical fluke, and other ...

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Housing Optimism Helps Gap And Go Attempt

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Housing optimismConfidence among those in the housing industry has jumped to one of the highest levels in 30 years. Similarly high levels led to poor returns in home building stocks, but good returns in suppliers like Home Depot and Lowe’s.Over the ...

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Record Exposure As Small-Caps Drop And Commodities Suffer

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Record exposureActive investment managers saw a record jump to record exposure and record aggressiveness toward stocks this week.There is a tendency to think this is automatically a contrary sign, but it has not been a consistent signal in the ...

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Good Times As S&P Shrugs Off Financials

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.Good timesLow stress and easy financial conditions have led to high confidence, low savings and good economic surprises.That combination of positive factors has never been seen to the degree we’re enjoying now. Prior “good times” led to mixed ...

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Record Small Business Optimism As Investors Buy The Dip

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Near-record optimism (again)Small business owners are showing nearly the highest optimism readings in 45 years, confirming other surveys that are showing somewhere between multi-year to multi-decade extremes in optimism.High levels in the past led ...

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Strategists' 2018 Estimates; S&P's Relative Strength

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Another 7% gain for 2018Wall Street strategists are looking for a 7% gain for the S&P 500 in 2018. That’s slightly more optimistic than the Big Money poll a couple of months ago, and it’s about what they estimate every year. Actual results vary ...

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S&P futures gaps

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Market Oddities And Nikkei Reversal

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Straddling The S&P

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SPY Streaks And Twitter Updates

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VIX Split

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Misleading Buy Signal In Options

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Crude Oil's New Bear Market

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Another Jump In New Lows

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New Lows Among The S&P

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Gapping After A New High

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Low Vol (Again) As Tech Love Rises

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Retail Investor Confusion As The Vol Trade And Bitcoin Roll

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VIX Sigh Of Relief

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Holiday Trading

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First Large Down Open

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Another Jobs Report Gap

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Quiet Market No More

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Bulls Reach 30-Year Highs On Futures Gap

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Gap Opens On Nonfarm Payroll Day

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Stocks Struggle To Match The S&P

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Large Gap On First Session

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Spike In Buying Climaxes

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Pre-FOMC Strength

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December Tends To Peak...Now

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All Four Major Indexes At New Highs

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Thanksgiving Bias After A Rally

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Knee-Jerk Election Patterns

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Markets Don't Like Surprises

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Big Gains Ahead Of Elections

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3-Month Lows In November

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Largest Deals In History

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Gap And Go?

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Reversal Day As A Bottoming Signal

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Negative Bias In Weeks Following FOMC

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Reversing The Reversal

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Friday-Monday Selling

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Streak Without A 1% Loss About To End?

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Another Gap To A Record

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The Probability Of "Gap And Go"

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Gapping To A New High

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S&P Nearing A New High On Nonfarm Payroll Day

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Buyers Enjoying A 2nd Gap Up Open

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A 1% Gap Up Following Down Days

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VIX Drops With S&P; Friday-Monday Declines

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Losing The 200-Day Average

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A Gap Down Monday

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Intraday Price Action Following Large Gaps Down

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Optimistic Extremes Jump Above 40%

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Big Payroll Miss

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AAII Survey Shows Big Jump In Bulls

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Market Rising Into Memorial Day

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The 50-Week / 100-Week "Death Cross" Is Yet More Bunk

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The Most Frightening Chart

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Golden Cross With A Rising 200-Day Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is about to enjoy a "golden cross", when the 50-day average crosses above the 200-day average. We've looked at this in various markets over the years, typically with the conclusion that it's mostly useless.The wrinkle being discussed this time is that the 200-day ...

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Bad Breadth On A Good Day

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Back-To-Back-To-Back Reversal

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S&P Rallies Hard, May Cross 200-Day Avg

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Opening Gap Odds As Investor Optimism Doubles

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Gapping Up On Nonfarm Payrolls

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Getting Out When Averages Cross

Basic, long-term trend-following systems have become all the rage. Backtested results show that owning stocks, or almost any other asset class, when they are above a long-term moving average (such as 10 or 12 months), and not owning them when below the average, is superior on a risk-adjusted ...

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Quick Look At Futures Positioning

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Gapping After Optimism Hits An Extreme

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Yet Another Gap As Opening Fervor Continues

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Three-Day Rally Triggers More Short-Term Extremes

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Up Volume Going For 3 In A Row Above 80%

There is still a few hours to go in today's session, but buyers are working on a third straight day of impressive pressure.Friday, Tuesday and today (so far) have all seen more than 80% of volume on the NYSE flowing into stocks that are positive on the day.From the intraday charts:The last time ...

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Third Gap Of +1%

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Optimism Flat As Buying Surrounds Holiday Break

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Survey Pessimism Pushes AIM Model To Low Level

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Large Loss On Nonfarm Payroll Day

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New-Month Gap Down After A Big Surge

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A Big Month-End Rally Day

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Breadth Flush Pt 2 - New Lows

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Another Morning, Another Opening Loss

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Another Morning, Another Gap

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Individual Investors Flee

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Selling Off After We're Already Oversold

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Stocks Hitting A Low On Monday

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Monday Gaps From A Low

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Gaps Indicate Short-Term Panic

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Second Big Gap Down In Three Days

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Bad Start

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