The last time sentiment was this high... was in January-February
Depending on what indicators you look at, sentiment is approaching levels last seen in January/February, just before global equity markets plunged. Our CN Fear Greed Proxy's 20 day average is one of these indicators:
*CNN Fear/Greed is a popular (free) indicator which combines breadth, stocks vs. bonds, options data, junk bonds, momentum, and volatility to create an aggregate sentiment indicator.
When CNN Fear/Greed's 20 dma was this high in the past, the S&P's returns over the next 2 months were worse than average.
The current stock market rally has been particularly kind to tech stocks. The NASDAQ Internet Index's 3 month rate-of-change is at an all-time high:
Using a similar formula for how we calculate Optix, we can create an Optimism Index for the NASDAQ Internet Index and then apply a 3 month average:
When the NASDAQ Internet Index Optix's 3 month average was this high in the recent past, tech stocks often suffered:
As did the S&P 500 over the next month: