The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday

Jason Goepfert
2020-10-30

The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers mostly continued with their same positioning trends. They continue to push record short exposure in agriculture contracts, and commodities in general, with new extremes (again) in soybeans and sugar. So far, many of these contracts have been able to shrug off this positioning, which is a change from the past 8 years when they would roll over almost immediately. Hedgers have established a near-record long position in 30-year bonds, but are barely net long 10-year notes, which we've seen is an odd juxtaposition. In stocks, hedgers sold more and are now the most net short in nearly 2 years. This isn't a great sell signal, though. Per the Backtest Engine, the S&P showed flat returns up to 2 months later when they had short exposure of $45 billion or more.

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